The Frequency of Extreme Cold Events in North China and Their Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Definition of the SSECE
2.2.2. Harmonic Analysis
2.2.3. Pearson Correlation Coefficient and Partial Correlation Coefficient
2.2.4. Rossby Wave Activity Flux
3. Results
3.1. The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Interdecadal SSECE Frequency
3.1.1. The Basic Interdecadal Characteristics
3.1.2. The Interdecadal Spatial and Temporal Modes of the SSECE Frequency
3.2. Possible Causes of the “n” Pattern in the SSECE Frequency
3.2.1. Interdecadal Coupled Modes of SST, SSECE Frequency, and H500
3.2.2. Interdecadal Characteristics of the Atmospheric Circulation in the Upper and Lower Troposphere
3.3. Possible Causes of the East–West Inverse Anomalous Mode in the SSECE Frequency
3.3.1. Definition of SST Index
3.3.2. Correlation between the SST Index and PC1
3.3.3. Correlation between SST Index and Atmospheric Circulation Elements
4. Conclusions and Discussion
4.1. Conclusions
- (a)
- The SSECE frequency in North China showed an interdecadal transition around 1991, with frequent occurrence before 1991, less from 1992 to 2017, and increasing again since 2018. The frequency of SSECEs decreases from northwest to southeast. The interdecadal distributions of the SSECE frequency mainly include east–west inverse dipole mode, “n” mode, north-south inverse dipole mode, and “saddle-like” mode. The interdecadal transition point of the first mode, namely the east–west inverse dipole mode, is consistent with that of the regional average SSECE frequency in North China, and the transition point of the second mode is around 1997/1998.
- (b)
- The synergistic effects of the IPO and AMO SST interdecadal anomalies may be the main reason for the “n” mode interdecadal anomalies of the SSECE frequency. Before 1997/1998, the synergisms of +IPO and −AMO stimulated the teleconnection wave train from the Pacific to Eurasia. The −EUP pattern circulation anomaly of “two troughs and one ridge” in Eurasia propagated Rossby wave energy from upstream to downstream, deepening the Urals trough and the East Asian trough, strengthening the Lake Baikal blocking High, weakening the SH in the north and strengthening in the south, combined with the strong temperate jet and weak subtropical jet in the upper troposphere. As a result, the polar cold air invades North China via the Barents Sea, West Siberia, Central Siberia, and along the northward flow in front of the Lake Baikal ridge, resulting in frequent SSECEs in central North China in winter. The opposite is true after 1997/1998.
- (c)
- The synergistic effects of SSTAs among the Indian Ocean, Pacific, and North Atlantic may be an important reason for the east–west reverse dipole interdecadal anomaly of the SSECE frequency in North China in winter. Before 1991, the SST in the central North Atlantic was higher, and lower in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the tropical southwest Pacific, which caused a “+”, “−”, “+”, and “−” anomalous wave trains at mid-latitudes from the Atlantic to the North Pacific in the middle and lower troposphere. The Rossby wave energy propagated eastward from the North Atlantic, resulting in the stronger SH, and deeper Aleutian Low with a southerly location, stronger Urals blocking high, and deeper East Asian trough being located westward. The northerly airflow in front of the Urals ridge and behind the East Asian trough guided the polar cold air to travel southward along Novaya Zemlya, Western Siberian Plain, Inner Mongolia, and to reach North China, leading to the frequent occurrence of SSECEs in winter in central-eastern China before 1991, the opposite is true between 1992 and 2018.
4.2. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Pearson Correlation Coefficients | Partial Correlation Coefficients | |
---|---|---|
IInd | −0.70 ** | −0.69 ** |
IPa | −0.75 ** | −0.75 ** |
IAtl | −0.57 * | 0.63 ** |
ISST | 0.88 ** | — |
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Yang, N.; Li, L.; Ren, Y.; Ni, W.; Liu, L. The Frequency of Extreme Cold Events in North China and Their Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 1699. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111699
Yang N, Li L, Ren Y, Ni W, Liu L. The Frequency of Extreme Cold Events in North China and Their Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Atmosphere. 2023; 14(11):1699. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111699
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Na, Liping Li, Yike Ren, Wenjie Ni, and Lu Liu. 2023. "The Frequency of Extreme Cold Events in North China and Their Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies" Atmosphere 14, no. 11: 1699. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111699