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Article

Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Severe Summer Thunderstorm in The Netherlands: Performance and Uncertainty Assessment for Parameterised and Resolved Convection

Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen University, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, P.O. box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 811; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080811
Received: 16 June 2020 / Revised: 28 July 2020 / Accepted: 29 July 2020 / Published: 31 July 2020
On the evening of 23 June 2016 around 18:00 UTC, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) with hail and wind gusts passed the southern province Noord-Brabant in the Netherlands, and caused 675 millions of euros damage. This study evaluates the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with three cumulus parameterisation schemes (Betts–Miller–Janjic, Grell–Freitas and Kain–Fritsch) on a grid spacing of 4 km in the ‘grey-zone’ and with explicitly resolved convection at 2 and 4 km grid spacing. The results of the five experiments are evaluated against observations of accumulated rainfall, maximum radar reflectivity, the CAPE evolution and wind speed. The results show that the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme is activated too early and can therefore not predict any MCS over the region of interest. The Grell–Freitas and Kain–Fritsch schemes do predict an MCS, but its intensity is underestimated. With the explicit convection, the model is able to resolve the storm, though with a delay and an overestimated intensity. We also study whether spatial uncertainty in soil moisture is scaled up differently using parameterised or explicitly resolved convection. We find that the uncertainty in soil moisture distribution results in larger uncertainty in convective activity in the runs with explicit convection and the Grell–Freitas scheme, while the Kain–Fritsch and Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme clearly present a smaller variability. View Full-Text
Keywords: cumulus parameterisation; mesoscale convective system; The Netherlands; WRF model; grey zone cumulus parameterisation; mesoscale convective system; The Netherlands; WRF model; grey zone
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MDPI and ACS Style

Steeneveld, G.-J.; Peerlings, E.E.M. Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Severe Summer Thunderstorm in The Netherlands: Performance and Uncertainty Assessment for Parameterised and Resolved Convection. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 811. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080811

AMA Style

Steeneveld G-J, Peerlings EEM. Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Severe Summer Thunderstorm in The Netherlands: Performance and Uncertainty Assessment for Parameterised and Resolved Convection. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(8):811. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080811

Chicago/Turabian Style

Steeneveld, Gert-Jan, and Esther E.M. Peerlings 2020. "Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Severe Summer Thunderstorm in The Netherlands: Performance and Uncertainty Assessment for Parameterised and Resolved Convection" Atmosphere 11, no. 8: 811. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080811

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