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Open AccessArticle

Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Phenology and Production of Winter Wheat in Northwestern China Using CERES-Wheat Model

by Zhen Zheng 1,2, Huanjie Cai 2,3,*, Zikai Wang 4 and Xinkun Wang 1
1
Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, ZhenJiang 212013, China
2
Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
3
Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China (IWSA), Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
4
Zhenjiang Engineering Survey & Design Institute Co., Ltd., Zhenjiang 212013, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 681; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070681
Received: 8 May 2020 / Revised: 22 June 2020 / Accepted: 23 June 2020 / Published: 28 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Adaptation to Global Climate Change)
Wheat plays a very important role in China’s agriculture. The wheat grain yields are affected by the growing period that is determined by temperature, precipitation, and field management, such as planting date and cultivar species. Here, we used the CSM-CERES-Wheat model along with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate different impacts on the winter wheat that caused by changing climate for 2025 and 2050 projections for Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China. Our results showed that it is obvious that there is a warming trend in Guanzhong Plain; the mean temperature for the different scenarios increased up to 3.8 °C. Furthermore, the precipitation varied in the year; in general, the rainfall in February and August was increased, while it decreased in April, October and November. However, the solar radiation was found to be greatly reduced in the Guanzhong Plain. Compared to the reference year, the results showed that the number of days to maturity was shortened 3–24 days, and the main reason was the increased temperature during the winter wheat growing period. Moreover, five planting dates (from October 7 to 27 with five days per step) were applied to simulate the final yield and to select an appropriate planting date for the study area. The yield changed smallest based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-CM3 (−6.5, −5.3, −4.2 based on RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for 2025 when planting on October 27. Farmers might have to plant the crop before 27 October. View Full-Text
Keywords: anthesis and maturity date; crop yield; SimCLIM; DSSAT model; planting date anthesis and maturity date; crop yield; SimCLIM; DSSAT model; planting date
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Zheng, Z.; Cai, H.; Wang, Z.; Wang, X. Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Phenology and Production of Winter Wheat in Northwestern China Using CERES-Wheat Model. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 681.

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