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Open AccessArticle

Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

1
Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, 3004-530 Coimbra, Portugal
2
Department of Physics and Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-093 Aveiro, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(2), 159; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020159
Received: 11 December 2019 / Revised: 22 January 2020 / Accepted: 29 January 2020 / Published: 3 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue 10th Anniversary of Atmosphere: Climatology and Meteorology)
Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; extreme temperatures; distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM); mortality; elderly; projections; WRF model; Portugal climate change; extreme temperatures; distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM); mortality; elderly; projections; WRF model; Portugal
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Rodrigues, M.; Santana, P.; Rocha, A. Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? Atmosphere 2020, 11, 159.

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