The Impact of Decarbonization Scenarios on Air Quality and Human Health in Poland—Analysis of Scenarios up to 2050
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Input Data: Energy and Emission Scenarios
3. Methodology
3.1. Modeling of Air Quality
3.2. Health Impacts and External Costs
4. Results
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Pollutant | Sector | Mod-RES | High-RES Decentralized | High-RES Centralized |
---|---|---|---|---|
CO2 | Power | 83 | 93 | 86 |
Household and tertiary | 53 | 97 | 98 | |
Road transport | 68 | |||
PM2.5 | Power | 66 | 82 | 98 |
Household and tertiary | 96 | 95 | 97 | |
Road transport | 52 | |||
SO2 | Power | 99 | 99 | 99 |
Household and tertiary | 99 | 99 | 99 | |
NOX | Power | 66 | 86 | 79 |
Household and tertiary | 65 | 76 | 85 | |
Road transport | 68 |
CRF | CRF (Cases µg·m−3) | Unit Value (Eur2013case−1 *) |
---|---|---|
PM2.5—Mortality YOLL | 3.42 × 10−4 | 57,510 |
PM2.5—Chronic Bronchitis | 3.90 × 10−5 | 38,578 |
PM2.5—Restricted activity days | 4.20 × 10−2 | 98 |
Type of Data | Type of Impact | Units | Group | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under 19 Years Old | Over 20 Years Old | Total | |||||
Female | Male | Female | Male | ||||
Health Impact | YOLL | years | 21,393 | 22,505 | 91,158 | 83,359 | 218,415 |
RAD | 103 days | 2627 | 2764 | 11,194 | 10,237 | 26,823 | |
CB | case | 2440 | 2566 | 10395 | 9506 | 24,907 | |
External Cost | YOLL | M€ | 1230 | 1294 | 5242 | 4794 | 12,561 |
RAD | M€ | 257 | 271 | 1097 | 1003 | 2629 | |
CB | M€ | 94 | 99 | 401 | 367 | 961 | |
Total | M€ | 1582 | 1664 | 6741 | 6164 | 16,150 |
Type of Data | Type of Impact | Units | Group | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under 19 Years Old | Over 20 Years Old | Total | |||||
Female | Male | Female | Male | ||||
Health Impact | YOLL | years | 18,532 | 19,483 | 76,510 | 69,732 | 184,257 |
RAD | 103 days | 2276 | 2393 | 9396 | 8564 | 22,628 | |
CV | case | 2113 | 2222 | 8725 | 7952 | 21,012 | |
External Cost | YOLL | M€ | 1066 | 1120 | 4400 | 4010 | 10,597 |
RAD | M€ | 223 | 234 | 921 | 839 | 2218 | |
CB | M€ | 82 | 86 | 337 | 307 | 811 | |
Total | M€ | 1370 | 1441 | 5658 | 5156 | 13,625 |
Scenario | Sector | Reduction of External Cost |
---|---|---|
Mod-RES | Power | 145 |
Household and tertiary | 2146 | |
High-RES decentralized | Power | 144 |
Household and tertiary | 2124 | |
High-RES centralized | Power | 147 |
Household and tertiary | 2167 | |
road transport | 122 |
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Zyśk, J.; Wyrwa, A.; Suwała, W.; Pluta, M.; Olkuski, T.; Raczyński, M. The Impact of Decarbonization Scenarios on Air Quality and Human Health in Poland—Analysis of Scenarios up to 2050. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1222. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111222
Zyśk J, Wyrwa A, Suwała W, Pluta M, Olkuski T, Raczyński M. The Impact of Decarbonization Scenarios on Air Quality and Human Health in Poland—Analysis of Scenarios up to 2050. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(11):1222. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111222
Chicago/Turabian StyleZyśk, Janusz, Artur Wyrwa, Wojciech Suwała, Marcin Pluta, Tadeusz Olkuski, and Maciej Raczyński. 2020. "The Impact of Decarbonization Scenarios on Air Quality and Human Health in Poland—Analysis of Scenarios up to 2050" Atmosphere 11, no. 11: 1222. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111222