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Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

1
Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
2
INRA, US1116 AgroClim, 84914 Avignon, France
3
ADVID, Associação para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura Duriense, Parque de Ciência e Tecnologia de Vila Real–Régia Douro Park, 5000-033 Vila Real, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Agronomy 2019, 9(4), 210; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy9040210
Received: 3 April 2019 / Revised: 17 April 2019 / Accepted: 23 April 2019 / Published: 25 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change)
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Abstract

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture. View Full-Text
Keywords: grapevine; phenology; phenology modelling platform; Touriga Franca; Touriga Nacional; climate change; RCP4.5; EURO-CORDEX; Douro wine region; Portugal grapevine; phenology; phenology modelling platform; Touriga Franca; Touriga Nacional; climate change; RCP4.5; EURO-CORDEX; Douro wine region; Portugal
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Costa, R.; Fraga, H.; Fonseca, A.; García de Cortázar-Atauri, I.; Val, M.C.; Carlos, C.; Reis, S.; Santos, J.A. Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections. Agronomy 2019, 9, 210.

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