Search Results (103)

Intensity–Frequency–Duration Curves (IDF curves) are a tool applied in hydraulic and hydrology engineering to design infrastructure for rainfall management. They express how precipitation, with a defined duration (D) and intensity (I), is frequent in a certain area. They are built from past recorded rainfall series, applying the extreme value statistics, and they are considered invariant in time. However, the current climate change projections are showing a detectable positive trend in temperatures, which, according to Clausius–Clapeyron, is expected to intensify extreme precipitation (higher temperatures bring more water vapour available for precipitation). According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, rainfall events are projected to intensify their magnitude and frequency, becoming more extreme, especially across “climatic hot-spot” areas such as the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, a sensible modification of IDF curves is expected, posing some challenges for future hydraulic infrastructure design (i.e., sewage networks), which may experience damage and failure due to extreme intensification. In this paper, a methodology for reconstructing IDF curves by analysing the EURO-CORDEX climate model outputs is presented. The methodology consists of the analysis of climatic rainfall series (that cover a future period up to 2100) using GEV (Generalised Extreme Value) techniques. The future anomalies of rainfall height (H) and their return period (RP) have been evaluated and then compared to the currently adopted IDF curves. The study is applied in Lombardy (Italy), a region characterised by strong orographic precipitation gradients due to the influence of Alpine complex orography. The future anomalies of H evaluated in the study show an increase of 20–30 mm (2071–2100 ensemble median, RCP 8.5) in rainfall depth. Conversely, a significant reduction in the return period by 40–60% (i.e., the current 100-year event becomes a ≈40–60-year event by 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5) is reported, leading to an intensification of extreme events. The former have been considered to correct the currently adopted IDF curves, taking into account climate change drivers. A series of applications in the field of hydraulic infrastructure (a stormwater retention tank and a sewage pipe) have demonstrated how the influence of IDF curve modification may change their design. The latter have shown how future RP modification (i.e., reduction) of the design rainfall may lead to systematic under-design and increased flood risk if not addressed properly. Full article

The temperature-based indicators heating and cooling degree days, are frequently utilized to quantitatively link indoor energy demand and outdoor thermal conditions, especially in the context of climate change. We present a comprehensive study of the heating and cooling degree-days and the degree-days categories for the near past (1976–2005), and the AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario-driven future (2066–2095) over Southeast Europe based on an elaborated methodology and performed using a 19 combinations of driving global and regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX with horizontal resolution of 0.11°. Alongside the explicit focus of the degree-days categories and the finer grid resolution, the study benefits substantially from the consideration of the monthly, rather than annual, time scale, which allows the assessment of the intra-annual variations of all analyzed parameters. We provide evidences that the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is capable of simulating the spatiotemporal patterns of the degree-days and degree-day categories for the near past period. Generally, we demonstrate also a steady growth in cooling and a decrease in heating degree-days, where the change of the former is larger in relative terms. Additionally, we show an overall shift toward warmer degree-day categories as well as prolongation of the cooling season and shortening of the heating season. As a whole, the magnitude of the projected long-term changes is significantly stronger for the ’pessimistic’ scenario RCP8.5 than the ’realistic’ scenario RCP4.5. These outcomes are consistent with the well-documented general temperature trend in the gradually warming climate of Southeast Europe. The patterns of the projected long-term changes, however, exhibit essential heterogeneity, both in time and space, as well as among the analyzed parameters. This finding is manifested, in particular, in the coexistence of opposite tendencies for some degree-day categories over neighboring parts of the domain and non-negligible month-to-month variations. Most importantly, the present study unequivocally affirms the significance of the anticipated long-term changes of the considered parameters over Southeast Europe in the RCP scenario-driven future with all subsequent and far-reaching effects on the heating, cooling, and ventilation industry. Full article

Anthropogenic alterations of the land surface through activities such as agriculture, forestry and urban development represent important human-induced forcings on the Earth’s climate system. This study, conducted in the framework of the UpClim project, employs the non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW v4.5.1 model forced by ERA5 reanalysis data to assess the impact of land use changes (LUCs) on the European climate. The study aims to quantify the effects of LUCs over the EURO-CORDEX domain at 0.11° resolution during 1980–1985 by comparing simulations with transient land use forcing against a control run with static land use. Full article

Tourism in Greece is directly influenced by bioclimatic conditions, with thermal comfort being a key determinant of destination suitability. This study quantifies projected changes in outdoor thermal stress across 25 representative Greek tourism locations using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) index. The analysis employs daily outputs from four EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations at ~11 km spatial resolution, covering the period 1970–2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Predominant PET classes were derived for a reference period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2031–2060, 2071–2100) to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of thermal comfort. The results reveal a consistent upward shift toward higher PET classes, indicating intensifying thermal stress. During the baseline, moderate to strong heat stress (29–35 °C) dominated summer months, with cold stress (<8 °C) restricted to northern and high-altitude stations. By mid-century, even under RCP2.6, summer PET values increasingly exceed 35–41 °C, while RCP8.5 simulations show the first occurrence of extreme PET (>41 °C). By late century, RCP2.6 stabilizes heat stress, whereas RCP4.5 exhibits widespread dominance of strong stress classes and elimination of cold stress. Under RCP8.5, July–August are uniformly categorized as extreme (>41 °C) across nearly all stations, and transitional months shift toward high stress, leading to a homogenization of summer conditions. These findings underscore the high sensitivity of Greek tourism destinations to climate change, highlighting both the critical benefits of global emissions mitigation and the urgent need for locally tailored adaptation strategies. Full article

Changes in agricultural drought frequency (DF), duration (DD) and severity (DS) in Greece are investigated based on 11 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations covering the period 1971–2100 under three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with the use of the SPI and SPEI. Increases in DF, DD and DS are more prominent in the 2071–2100 period under RCP8.5. Central and southern Greece, the Aegean islands and Crete experience the largest increases under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under RCP2.6, changes in DD and DS are less pronounced, especially over northern Greece. Full article

Here, we assess the projected changes in photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) in Greece for the 21st century. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative following three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6 (strong mitigation), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The spatial patterns of the PVpot changes in the near future (2021–2050) and at the end of the century (2071–2100) relative to the 1971–2000 baseline period are presented along with the corresponding statistical robustness. In addition, we analyze time series of the projected PVpot changes. Finally, we isolate the effects of specific climatic variables on the projected PVpot changes and discuss the importance of PV energy production in Greece. Full article

The deterioration of porous building materials in archeological monuments is often intensified by slow and cumulative compound climate events, including salt crystallization cycles. This research examines the spatial patterns of these damaging events across Greece using high-resolution climate simulations derived from ERA-Interim and ERA5 Reanalysis datasets, as well as EURO-CORDEX models. By analyzing both past conditions (1980–2004) and projected future scenarios (2025–2049) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the study identifies regions at heightened risk and explores how climate change influences the occurrence and possibly alters the aggressiveness of such events. By mapping the total frequency of these events and their anticipated changes under future climate conditions, this study contributes to developing a climatology of compound events that affect porous building materials of cultural heritage importance. Full article

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the Mudurnu Stream Basin in northwest Türkiye by analyzing climate parameters in the Mediterranean region. Historical data from EC-Earth2, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR GCMs from the CMIP5 Euro-CORDEX archive were assessed, and future precipitation and temperature data were derived using five statistical bias correction methods for the selected EC-Earth2 model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was employed to simulate future runoff amounts for the Mudurnu Stream Basin. The findings reveal notable changes in precipitation and temperature. The annual and seasonal variations of total precipitation and average, maximum, and minimum temperatures for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the Sakarya and Mudurnu regions were analyzed and determined. The projections for future river flow indicate a significant increase in precipitation during the rainy seasons. The Mudurnu Stream mainstem will experience an increase in flow of between 70 and 140% under RCP4.5 and between 80 and 160% under RCP8.5. In the Dinsiz Stream tributary, a 32–55% increase is observed for the spring and summer months. In this context, the rainfall and runoff projections required for the estimation of potential drought and flood risks in the near and distant future were calculated. Full article

Climate variations impact the preservation of heritage buildings, necessitating a strategic understanding of potential effects to effectively guide preservation efforts. This study analyzes temperature- and precipitation-dependent climate-heritage indices in Trentino–South Tyrol using EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for the period 1971–2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The selected indices were calculated with climdex-kit and relied on bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation data with a 1 km spatial resolution. The obtained results indicate a geographically punctuated increase in biomass accumulation on horizontal surfaces, a slight decreasing trend in freeze–thaw events, an increase in growing degree days indicating a small, heightened insect activity, and a rise in heavy precipitation days. The Scheffer Index shows a significantly increased potential for wood degradation, particularly under the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the Wet-Frost Index remains consistently low. Finally, according to each identified hazard, adaptive solutions are suggested. These findings provide critical insights into future climate impacts on heritage buildings in the region, aiding stakeholders in planning targeted interventions. The study emphasizes the crucial role of integrating detailed climate data into heritage preservation strategies, advocating for the inclusion of future risk analysis in the “knowledge path” in order to enhance the resilience of buildings. Full article

This study presents an integrated approach for assessing the risk of damage to cultural heritage due to climate change, applied to five selected European cultural sites. Future changes in climate parameters and indices associated with climate pressure on cultural heritage sites are analyzed using a set of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations under three different future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our results are reported for three different time periods, 1971–2000 (reference period), and two future periods, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The aim of this study is to apply the Heritage Outdoor Microclimate (HMR_out) and Predicted Risk of Damage (PRD) indices to quantify the risk of damage to inorganic materials resulting from future long-term changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH). Projections show a significant rise in temperature leading to increased HMR_out values and higher heat stress across CH sites. The projected temperature increase results in a rise in HMR_out index across all studied cultural heritage sites, with the rate of increase varying by period and scenario. Overall, as a result of the rising HMR_out index, the predicted risk of damage to monuments made from inorganic materials due to heat stress is expected to increase. The PRD index is projected to increase by up to 87% in certain CH sites by the end of the 21st century according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Conversely, as the climate becomes warmer, the RH and the associated risk are expected to decrease. This work highlights the necessity for continuous monitoring of future climate and the timely detection of the predicted risk of damage for monuments, to take immediate protective measures to preserve cultural heritage in the face of climate change. Full article

The renovation of buildings impacts various factors; one of them is the economic aspect, which has a significant influence on the decision-making process in building refurbishment, especially in social housing. An often-neglected aspect of renovation is the influence of climate change. Typically, historical climate data are used to estimate the building’s future energy needs. However, due to climate change, this approach may fail to accurately represent future environmental conditions, resulting in miscalculations in energy consumption and costs. This study analyzed a building archetype obtained from the TABULA webtool with the characteristics of a social house building located in Trieste. Dynamic simulations were performed using DesignBuilder and EnergyPlus software and future climate models (the GERICS_CNRM-CM5 and GERICS_IPSL-CM5A-MR models obtained from the EURO-CORDEX database). The projected energy needs of the renovated building and its economic effects were compared with current scenarios, and due to the uncertainties in economic parameters, the outcome is expressed in terms of percentiles of the Net Present Value (NPV). The results of this study show that since temperature increases in the future, the need for energy in the heating period reduces, while the need for cooling increases, directly affecting the statistical distribution of the NPV. Full article

Rapid urbanization and climate change intensify the urban heat island effect. This study quantifies the UHI impact in Luxembourg’s Pro-Sud region and explores sustainable mitigation strategies. In situ and mobile measurements, EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections (RCP4.5), and the FITNAH-3D urban climate model were used considering also future building developments. The results reveal a significant UHI effect, with substantial temperature and thermal stress level differences between urban and rural areas. Regional climate projections indicate a marked UHI intensification under future scenarios. FITNAH-3D simulations show increased thermal stress levels, especially in densely built areas, and highlight green infrastructure’s importance in mitigating UHI effects. Recommendations for spatial unit-specific urban climate measures specifically for vegetation, unsealing, and optimized urban design and planning are provided. Our research emphasizes the urgent need for tailored urban planning, adaptation, and mitigation strategies to enhance urban climate resilience and address thermal stress. Full article

Under the threat of the climate crisis, renewables are an alternative that are aligned to European principles for clean energy and green transition strategies. Past studies have shown that the Eastern Mediterranean will present notable short- and long-term wind speed variability due to climate change. In this context, this study investigates the mean changes in wind energy potential (WEP) of a typical height of offshore turbines (80 m) over the climate sensitive area of the Aegean Sea during early, middle and late periods of the 21st century with reference to a base period (the historical period from 1970 to 2005). Data, available from EURO-CORDEX project under the moderate and extreme future scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) as well as the recent past (historical) period (from 1970 to 2005), are analyzed here. In both future scenarios, the majority of model simulations indicates an increase in the WEP over the Aegean area as compared to the base period. In particular, the maximum increase in WEP is higher in the rcp8.5 scenario as compared to the rcp4.5 scenario. The most significant changes are shown over the southeastern (the straights between Crete and Rhodes Island) and the central-eastern Aegean area. Full article

In the coming decades, crop production in regions such as the Mediterranean Basin is expected to be influenced by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on maize yield and irrigation water in Northern Greece for the mid-21st century and late 21st century using CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model. Data from a two-year field experiment with maize, in 2016 and 2017, were used to calibrate and validate CropSyst. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were employed, derived from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs), for two future periods (2030–2050 and 2080–2100) and the baseline period (1980–2000). The RCMs used in this study were derived from the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4), which downscaled three General Circulation Models (GCMs), CNRM-CM5, CM5A-MR, and HadGEM2-ES, as part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) for the European domain. Results indicate that changes in climate variables will exert potential pressure on full irrigation water requirements, leading to both increases and decreases in irrigation amounts, with varying magnitudes of change. Yield impacts vary depending on the climate change scenario and climate model, with CropSyst predictions indicating both positive and negative effects on maize yield under full irrigation. The combined effects of increased temperatures, reduced precipitation, and elevated CO₂ concentrations under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 by the late 21st century resulted in substantial declines in maize yields. The study identifies the key factor influencing maize yield in future periods as the combined changes in climate variables under CO₂ concentration enrichment, which lead to alterations in full irrigation water requirements, highlighting the multiparameter nature of impact assessment on agricultural production in Northern Greece under various future climate scenarios. Full article

Italy is divided into 773 Agricultural Regions (ARs) based on shared physical and agronomic characteristics. These regions offer a valuable tool for analyzing various geographical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects of agriculture, including the climate. However, the ARs have lacked geospatial data, limiting their analytical potential. This study introduces the “Italian ARs Dataset”, a georeferenced shapefile defining the boundaries of each AR. This dataset facilitates geographical assessments of Italy’s complex agricultural sector. It also unlocks the potential for integrating AR data with other datasets like the Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN) dataset, in Italy represented by the Rete di Informazione Contabile Agricola (RICA), which samples hundreds of thousands of farms annually. To demonstrate the dataset’s utility, a large sample of RICA data encompassing 179 irrigated crops from 2011 to 2021, covering all of Italy, was retrieved. Validation confirmed successful assignment of all ARs present in the RICA sample to the corresponding shapefile. Additionally, to encourage the use of the ARs Dataset with gridded data, different spatial-scale resolutions are tested to identify a suitable threshold. The minimal spatial scale identified is 0.11 degrees, a commonly adopted scale by several climate datasets within the EURO-CORDEX and COPERNICUS programs. Full article