Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Ecosystem Service Values and Their Spatial Correlation in Xinjiang, China

Xinjiang is located in arid northwest China, which is a key area for promoting the high-quality development of the regional ecological environment. In recent years, against a background of increasing human activities and rapid natural changes, Xinjiang has faced enormous ecological challenges. This paper utilizes land-use data from 2000 to 2020 to verify the region’s current state of the ecosystem. Additionally, it uses the value equivalent factor per unit area, ecosystem service value (ESV) loss and gain matrix, and double-factor spatial autocorrelation analysis to study the spatial and temporal variabilities of ESV in Xinjiang and its attribution to spatial correlation. The results show that (1) the ESV in Xinjiang exhibits an overall increasing trend during 2000–2020, with a total increase of about CNY 18.202 billion. Regulation-service ESV takes the main position in the single-service function, accounting for about 67.18% of the total ESV. In northern Xinjiang, the ESV demonstrates a decreasing trend, dropping by about CNY 16.885 billion, while in southern Xinjiang, the ESV shows an increasing trend, rising by CNY 35.086 billion. (2) For the study period, the main loss of ESV in Xinjiang is the conversion of ecological land with a high ESV into cropland or barren land with a low ESV. The conversion of bare land to grassland led to the largest increase in ESV (about CNY 209.308 billion), whereas the conversion of grassland to barren land led to the largest loss (about CNY 183.046 billion). (3) There are positive correlations among ESV, net primary productivity (NPP), and human activity intensity (HAI). However, all of the relationships weaken year by year. The spatial agglomeration of ESV ∩ NPP is significantly greater than that of ESV ∩ HAI, so NPP is the dominant factor in the spatial correlation of ESV in Xinjiang. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for promoting high-quality regional ecological development in China’s arid northwest.