Rethinking Urban Heat Islands in Polycentric Metropolitan Systems: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review of Networked Heat Dynamics
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Research Design
2.2. Data Sources and Search Strategy
2.3. Bibliometric Analysis
2.4. Systematic Literature Review (SLR) Protocol
3. Results
3.1. Knowledge Landscape and Research Trends
3.2. Thematic Structure of Polycentric UHI Research
3.3. Spatial Patterns of Urban Heat Islands in Polycentric Cities
4. Discussion
4.1. Polycentric UHI Is as an Extension of Single-City or Core–Periphery Models
4.2. Functional Hierarchy Matters: Not Every Sub-Center Produces Heat in the Same Way
4.3. From Local Cooling to Metropolitan Heat Governance
4.4. Equity, Geography and Transferability
4.5. Methodological Agenda: Harmonization, Causality and Open Pipelines
4.6. Planning and Governance Implications for Polycentric Heat Adaptation
5. Future Research Agenda
6. Limitations
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| UHI | Urban Heat Island |
| SUHI | Surface Urban Heat Island |
| SUHII | Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity |
| LST | Land Surface Temperature |
| LCZ | Local Climate Zone |
| LULC | Land Use and Land Cover |
| NDVI | Normalized Difference Vegetation Index |
| NDBI | Normalized Difference Built-up Index |
| NDMI | Normalized Difference Moisture Index |
| PRISMA | Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses |
| SLR | Systematic Literature Review |
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| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Time span | 2020–2025 |
| Total publications | 468 |
| Total citations | 9535 |
| Average citations per document | 20.37 |
| Annual growth rate | 18.09% |
| Number of journals/sources | 190 |
| Number of authors | 2026 |
| Countries involved | 67 |
| Subject Area | Percentage (%) | Number of Documents |
|---|---|---|
| Environmental Science | 27.30 | 128 |
| Social Sciences | 19.70 | 92 |
| Earth and Planetary Sciences | 18.60 | 87 |
| Engineering | 9.50 | 44 |
| Energy | 6.00 | 28 |
| Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 5.40 | 25 |
| Computer Science | 2.60 | 12 |
| Medicine | 1.40 | 7 |
| Multidisciplinary | 1.40 | 7 |
| Physics and Astronomy | 1.20 | 6 |
| Other | 6.90 | 32 |
| Total | 100.00 | 468 |
| Process in a Polycentric Context | Emergence (Spatial Signatures) | Diffusion Pathways | Key Moderators |
|---|---|---|---|
| Formation of multiple thermal cores, often forming a multi-core configuration. | Hotspots emerge as multi-core or mosaic patch fields aligned with multiple sub-centers and compact urban fabrics [29,30,31]. | New hotspots co-emerge around growing sub-centers, increasing patch density, and reinforcing polycentric hotspot fields [31,32,33]. | Analytical scale, degree of functional concentration, and landscape fragmentation [29,32,33]. |
| Sub-center-driven growth modes (edge, infill, enclave, sprawl) | Hotspot patches form in new developments, peri-urban edges, and infill zones with increasing impervious surfaces and reduced vegetation [34,35]. | Heat footprints expand through edge-/infill-type patch expansion, with occasional enclave/leapfrog development, and increasing connectivity of impervious surfaces [31,36,37]. | Urban expansion rate, land conversion intensity, and policy control over sprawl [34,38,39,40]. |
| Function-specific heat loading (industrial decentralization, zoning, transport) | Hotspots concentrate in industrial parks/development zones and functionally specialized areas within or near sub-centers [41,42,43]. | Industrial decentralization-driven suburbanization shifts SUHI burdens from the urban core toward urban expansion/peripheral areas, increasing the connectivity of impervious surfaces [39,43,44]. | Industrial structure, planning regulation, and distribution and accessibility of blue–green infrastructure [34,45]. |
| Within-subcenter morphology and land-cover composition | Compact LCZs, high building volume, and high imperviousness generate persistent micro-hotspots, while trees and water bodies form localized cool islands [35,46,47,48]. | Without structural change, hotspots remain spatially persistent; mitigation is commonly discussed via greening/blue–green infrastructure, high-albedo/cool-roof measures, and ventilation/shading strategies [35,47,49] | Three-dimensional urban form, local climate, and greenspace configuration thresholds [35,48,50]. |
| Temporal modulation (diurnal and seasonal cycles) | Nighttime SUHI patterns are often more coherent, while seasonal peaks, typically in summer, amplify hotspot contrast [38,51,52]. | Long-term trends may show declining intensity but expanding spatial extent, with seasonal footprints shifting according to atmospheric and vegetation dynamics [30,51,53] | Climate zone, sensor acquisition timing, and vegetation phenology [38,52,53]. |
| Measurement and baseline definition effects | Urban–rural dichotomies and inconsistent thresholds modify perceived SUHI extent and the apparent number of heat cores [30,54]. | Apparent expansion or fragmentation may partially reflect methodological artifacts rather than physical heat redistribution [30]. | Definition of “urban,” rural reference selection, and multi-sensor harmonization [30,54]. |
| Empirical Gap (Evidence Deficit) | What Is Currently Known from the 35 Reviewed Studies | Implications for Interpreting Polycentric UHI | Recommended Empirical Research Agenda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uneven representativeness across climate zones and polycentric typologies | Urban form–LST/SUHI relationships vary across climate zones and industrial contexts, indicating that “polycentric effects” are conditional rather than universal [47,55]. Evidence of UHI reduction associated with explicitly measured polycentricity exists but is not consistent across cases [32,33]. | Policy conclusions derived from limited climatic or structural contexts risk being non-portable across regions with different climates and economic bases [32,47]. | Conduct cross-climate comparative studies using harmonized definitions of polycentricity (population, function, and morphology-based) while controlling for industrial structure and urbanization stage [32,33,55]. |
| Inconsistent treatment of diurnal–seasonal dynamics and intensity–footprint decoupling | Heat patterns differ substantially between daytime and nighttime and across seasons, altering the apparent configuration of hotspots [38,52]. In some regions, UHI intensity decreases while spatial extent expands, indicating decoupled dynamics [51,54]. | Analyses based on a single temporal regime may misinterpret multi-core or corridor-based patterns due to sensor timing or vegetation phenology [38,52]. | Develop multi-season and day–night panel analyses reporting dual outcomes (intensity and footprint) to test the temporal stability of multi-core structures [38,51,54]. |
| Limited evidence on dynamic polycentricity and structural transitions | Some studies explicitly measure polycentricity and report reduced UHI and spillover effects [32,33], but many studies operate in polycentric contexts without tracking changes in polycentricity over time [31,55]. | Without longitudinal evidence, it is difficult to distinguish whether multi-hotspot patterns result from functional polycentric maturation or from morphologically multi-centered dispersed sprawl [31,34]. | Build longitudinal panels tracking sub-center evolution (population and function) and linking these trajectories to changes in hotspot fields using consistent baselines [30,32,33]. |
| Persistent scale mismatch between evidence and mechanisms | Many analyses rely on metropolitan averages, while hotspot formation and thermal mechanisms operate at patch or neighborhood scales [31,47]. LST variation is strongly influenced by 2D/3D morphology, ventilation, and land-cover configuration [49]. | Aggregated metrics may obscure dominant heat-driving nodes, leading to policy evaluations that fail to identify the sub-center responsible for disproportionate heat exposure [45,49]. | Apply multi-scale frameworks that link macro-level polycentricity indices with node delineation (LCZs, sub-center) and patch-level thermal metrics to test causal pathways across scales [31,56]. |
| Partial integration of human exposure, vulnerability, and blue–green infrastructure access | Heat vulnerability correlates with NDVI, moisture availability, and unequal access to green space, producing uneven thermal risk within metropolitan regions [45]. Population exposure may increase with long-term UHI intensification even when average intensity stabilizes [45,57]. | Policy success cannot be evaluated solely through average intensity reduction, as spatial equity across nodes and social groups may deteriorate [45,51]. | Integrate UHI metrics (intensity and footprint) with population exposure and blue–green infrastructure accessibility across sub-centers to assess trade-offs among intensity, spatial extent, and equity [41,45,57]. |
| Spatial Pattern | Main Planning Issue | Recommended Intervention | Governance Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-core hotspots | Overheating in dense sub-centers | Tree-canopy expansion, cool roofs, ventilation corridors, and impervious-surface reduction | Node-specific thermal-performance standards |
| Corridor propagation | Heat propagation along transport and industrial corridors | Corridor greening, shaded mobility, blue–green continuity | Cross-jurisdiction and multi-scalar corridor planning |
| Peripheral expansion | Loss of peri-urban cooling capacity | Growth control, ecological buffers, protection of peri-urban environmental-service functions | Metropolitan land-use and multi-scalar coordination |
| Priority | Research Agenda | Rationale | Recommended Designs | Minimum Reporting | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Standardize polycentricity as a multidimensional construct. | Definitions of polycentricity vary across morphology, population and function. | Multidimensional indices, sensitivity tests, explicit node delineation. | Node boundaries, activity data, LULC, LCZ, polycentricity metrics. | [29,32,47,60] |
| P2 | Report both UHI intensity and footprint. | Intensity and spatial extent do not always evolve together. | Multi-season and day–night panels; baseline sensitivity tests. | LST/SUHI, urban/rural baseline, thresholds, acquisition time. | [30,38,51,54] |
| P3 | Connect macro polycentric structure to micro-scale exposure. | Metropolitan averages obscure hotspot nodes and vulnerable neighborhoods. | Hierarchical models, LCZ mapping, population exposure overlays. | LCZ, 3D morphology, census/exposure data, green access. | [45,46,57] |
| P4 | Model corridor heat propagation and advection. | Transport and industrial corridors can connect hotspots across nodes. | Network buffers, wind-aware models, corridor before–after analysis. | Transport centrality, industrial zones, wind data, corridor LST/air temperature. | [41,43,76] |
| P5 | Evaluate blue–green infrastructure as a connected thermal network. | Cooling depends on configuration, connectivity and maintenance capacity. | Quasi-experimental matching, landscape connectivity, access analysis. | NDVI/NDMI, canopy, water bodies, patch connectivity, maintenance context. | [23,64,72,74] |
| P6 | Triangulate surface heat with air temperature and thermal comfort. | LST does not directly equal human heat stress. | Mobile sensors, fixed stations, UTCI/HI modeling, satellite integration. | Sensor placement, temporal window, air temperature, comfort indices. | [13,62,70,77] |
| P7 | Expand evidence in tropical and Global South metropolitan regions. | Evidence is geographically concentrated and climate-dependent. | Paired climate-zone cases; multi-city comparative studies. | Climate classification, topography, coastality, governance context. | [19,36,48,50] |
| P8 | Assess equity and policy outcomes, not only thermal averages. | Heat reduction can bypass vulnerable populations. | Spatial equity metrics, vulnerability overlays, policy evaluation. | Population exposure, income/race proxies where appropriate, green-access metrics. | [45,68,69,75] |
| P9 | Use causal inference and transparent machine learning. | Associations do not prove mitigation effects or transferability. | Spatial causal inference, interpretable ML, out-of-sample validation. | Training/testing split, uncertainty, spatial autocorrelation, counterfactual assumptions. | [63,78] |
| P10 | Build reproducible open pipelines for polycentric UHI studies. | Inconsistent preprocessing and baselines limit synthesis. | Open code, documented thresholds, harmonized reporting checklist. | Sensor metadata, scripts, data provenance, baseline choices. | [79,80] |
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Rosnila; Rustiadi, E.; Pravitasari, A.E.; Pribadi, D.O. Rethinking Urban Heat Islands in Polycentric Metropolitan Systems: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review of Networked Heat Dynamics. Sustainability 2026, 18, 5707. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115707
Rosnila, Rustiadi E, Pravitasari AE, Pribadi DO. Rethinking Urban Heat Islands in Polycentric Metropolitan Systems: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review of Networked Heat Dynamics. Sustainability. 2026; 18(11):5707. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115707
Chicago/Turabian StyleRosnila, Ernan Rustiadi, Andrea Emma Pravitasari, and Didit Okta Pribadi. 2026. "Rethinking Urban Heat Islands in Polycentric Metropolitan Systems: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review of Networked Heat Dynamics" Sustainability 18, no. 11: 5707. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115707
APA StyleRosnila, Rustiadi, E., Pravitasari, A. E., & Pribadi, D. O. (2026). Rethinking Urban Heat Islands in Polycentric Metropolitan Systems: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review of Networked Heat Dynamics. Sustainability, 18(11), 5707. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115707

