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Article

Forecasting Vineyard Water Needs in Southern Poland Under Climate Change Scenarios

by
Stanisław Rolbiecki
1,*,
Barbara Jagosz
2,*,
Wiesława Kasperska-Wołowicz
3,
Roman Rolbiecki
1 and
Tymoteusz Bolewski
3
1
Department of Biogeochemistry, Soil Science, Irrigation and Drainage, Bydgoszcz University of Science and Technology, 85-029 Bydgoszcz, Poland
2
Department of Plant Biology and Biotechnology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
3
Institute of Technology and Life Sciences—National Research Institute, Falenty, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2025, 17(11), 4766; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114766
Submission received: 24 March 2025 / Revised: 15 May 2025 / Accepted: 20 May 2025 / Published: 22 May 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Management and Regulation of Agricultural Water Resources in the Context of Global Climate Change, 2nd Edition)
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Abstract

:
Climate change requires efficient water resource management, especially in regions where viticulture is developing. This study evaluates the water requirements, precipitation deficits, and irrigation needs of vineyards in two locations in southern Poland. The analysis covers both a reference period (1931–2020) and a forecast period (2030–2100), based on two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Grapevine water requirements were estimated using a crop coefficient tailored to Poland’s agroclimatic conditions, combined with meteorological data on air temperature and precipitation. Monthly crop coefficient values were calculated as the ratio of grapevine potential evapotranspiration, estimated using the Penman–Monteith method, to reference evapotranspiration, calculated using the Treder approach for the period 1981–2010. Precipitation deficits were assessed for normal, medium dry, and very dry years using the Ostromęcki method. Irrigation water demand was estimated for light, medium, and heavy soils using the Pittenger method. The results indicate a significant increase in both water demand and precipitation deficits in the forecast period, regardless of the scenario. In very dry years, irrigation will be necessary for all soil types. In medium dry years, water deficits will primarily affect vineyards on light soils. These findings underscore the urgent need for improvements in irrigation planning, especially in areas with low soil water. They offer practical insights for estimating future water storage needs and implementing precision irrigation adapted to changing climate conditions. Adopting such adaptive strategies is essential for sustaining vineyard productivity and improving water use efficiency. This study also supports the integration of climate projections into regional planning and calls for investment in innovative, water-saving technologies to strengthen the long-term resilience of Poland’s wine industry.

1. Introduction

The grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a thermophilic species known for its resilience to periodic drought. Air temperature is widely recognized as the most critical factor influencing the potential for grapevine cultivation [1,2,3,4,5]. Global climate change, particularly rising temperatures, is expanding the areas suitable for viticulture worldwide [6,7]. Projections suggest that, by 2050, the area under grapevine cultivation in Austria may double [8]. Similarly, the viticulture zone in Europe has shifted northward and now includes parts of Scandinavia [6,7,9,10,11]. In Poland, recent decades have brought a noticeable improvement in thermal conditions for grapevine cultivation, driven by increasing air temperatures [4,12,13,14,15]. As a result, viticulture has been developing dynamically, especially in the southern regions such as the areas around Krakow and Rzeszow [12,16,17,18,19]. According to the official vineyard register, as of 9 May 2024, there were 609 registered vineyards in Poland [20]. However, numerous studies show that global warming negatively affects vine growth, yields, and fruit quality in regions where grapevines were traditionally cultivated under optimal or moderately warm conditions [21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39].
Future climate scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a continued increase in global air temperatures. By 2100, the average air temperature in Poland may rise by up to 4 °C [40,41]. Climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, specifically RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, suggest that the European viticulture zone will continue to expand and could potentially reach as far north as the 55°N parallel [42].
In addition to temperature, precipitation is another key climatic factor affecting grapevine cultivation. While higher temperatures can enhance fruit ripening, they also increase evaporation rates, thereby raising plants’ water demand. Forecasts predict that further warming may lead to greater precipitation deficits during the growing season across much of Europe [40]. These changes may negatively impact grape development, especially in soils with low water retention capacity [6,42]. In Poland, the ongoing warming trend, without a corresponding increase in precipitation, is contributing to rising water demand in both agriculture and horticulture [43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50], including viticulture [51,52,53]. As a result, supplementary irrigation is increasingly considered essential for maintaining vineyard productivity worldwide [54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69]. In some regions, even intensive irrigation may become necessary [70]. Within the framework of sustainable agriculture, enhancing vineyard productivity must be balanced with efficient resource management, especially water use [60,69]. Effective irrigation techniques should ensure precise water distribution. A key element of this process is the accurate estimation of grapevine water requirements, precipitation deficits, and irrigation needs in various cultivation areas [54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69]. Such data are essential for designing effective irrigation systems, particularly regarding reservoir capacity [56].
Previous studies have primarily examined grapevine water requirements in western [51], central [52], and northern [53] Poland. However, detailed analyses are lacking for the southern regions, which are characterized by distinct climatic and soil conditions. This study addresses that gap by evaluating the water requirements, precipitation deficits, and irrigation needs of grapevines in two southern Polish locations: Krakow and Rzeszow. The analysis covers both a historical reference period (1931–2020) and a projected future period (2030–2100), based on two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The findings will provide valuable input for planning and designing vineyard irrigation infrastructure, particularly with respect to reservoir capacity. The resulting data are expected to support precise and efficient irrigation system management in southern Polish vineyards, contributing to the sustainable development of viticulture under changing climatic conditions. The research hypothesis assumes that, under the projected climate conditions for 2030–2100, grapevine water requirements in southern Poland will significantly exceed those of the reference period. This increase may result in greater precipitation deficits and a need for more intensive irrigation, especially on light soils.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Research Scheme

In this study, the water requirements and precipitation deficits for grapevine cultivation (Vitis vinifera L.) were estimated for vineyards in two regions of southern Poland: the Krakow region (KR) and the Rzeszow region (RZ). These areas are located in the Małopolskie (Lesser Poland) and Podkarpackie (Subcarpathian) provinces, respectively. This study covered two reference periods (1951–2020 and 1971–2020) and one forecast period (2031–2100). Calculations were conducted for the grapevine growing season, which, in Poland lasts from 1 April to 31 October.
The forecast was based on two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Calculations used meteorological data, including reference and projected monthly average temperatures and precipitation totals for both regions. Forecast data were obtained from the Klimada 2.0 portal [71].
RCP 4.5 represents a moderate scenario. It assumes that, by 2100, atmospheric CO2 will reach 540 ppm, with radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 and a global temperature increase of approximately 2.5 °C. RCP 8.5, by contrast, is a high-emission scenario, projecting 940 ppm CO2, radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2, and a temperature rise of about 4.5 °C.
Reference-period data came from synoptic meteorological stations maintained by the Institute of Water Management–National Research Institute (IMGW), located in Krakow and Rzeszow. These stations are representative of the study areas (Table 1). The long observation period (since 1951) enables detailed analysis of agro-climatic trends. During the 1951–2020 period, the average temperature during the growing season (from early April to late October) was 13.0 °C in RZ and 14.0 °C in KR. RZ also had 26 mm less precipitation on average than KR (461.6 mm vs. 487.6 mm).

2.2. Assessment of Water Requirements

Grapevine water requirements were estimated using the crop coefficient method, based on air temperature [72,73,74]. In this method, water needs are calculated as potential evapotranspiration (ETp), assuming optimal soil moisture conditions. To calculate the water requirements (mm), the following Formula (1) was used:
E T p = K c × E T o ,
where Kc—crop coefficient, defined as the ratio of potential crop evapotranspiration (ETp) to reference evapotranspiration (ETo) [73].
The crop coefficient method is widely used to estimate crop water needs. ETp varies depending on crop growth stage and leaf area, reflecting water demand under ideal conditions. ETp represents the water needed to produce yield under specific climate and soil conditions. Since Kc values depend on climate and are highly variable in the literature, selecting appropriate values is often difficult [74,75].
Potential evapotranspiration for grapevines was determined using the Penman–Monteith method for the 1981–2010 period. Kc values were adjusted for Polish conditions (Table 2A).
Because climate change scenario data were limited to air temperature and precipitation, the Treder formula was applied to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Given the expected temperature increases in Poland, this simple temperature-based method is suitable. Monthly Kc values were derived as the ratio of ETp estimated with the Penman–Monteith method [72] to ETo calculated with the Treder method [74] for the 1981–2010 period. These values are shown in Table 2B.
Reference evapotranspiration (ETo, mm) was estimated using Treder’s empirical Formula (2) [74]:
E T o = n × α × T ,
where n—number of days in the month; α—empirical coefficient determined by Treder [74] (Table 2C); and T—monthly average temperature (°C).

2.3. Assessment of Precipitation Deficits

Precipitation deficits for vineyards were calculated for normal years (N50%), medium dry years (N25%), and very dry years (N10%) using the Ostromęcki method [79,80,81], according to the following Formula (3):
N p % = A p % × E T p   – B p % × P ,
where Np%—precipitation deficit at a given probability (mm per period); Ap% and Bp%—coefficients representing the variability of evapotranspiration and precipitation for a given meteorological station; ETp—long-term average potential evapotranspiration (mm per period); and P—long-term average precipitation (mm·per period).

2.4. Assessment of Net Volume of the Water Reservoir for Irrigation

Precipitation deficit (N, mm) was used to estimate the net volume (V, m3) of water needed to irrigate a 5-hectare vineyard (F, ha). The calculation was conducted for N10%, N25%, and N50% years during both the reference and forecast periods under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. It was assumed that 1 mm of irrigation equals 10 m3 per hectare (DI, m3). The reservoir volume was calculated using the following Formula (4):
V = N × F × D I ,

2.5. Assessment of Irrigation Water Demand

Irrigation water demand (ID; mm) and unit irrigation water demand (UID; dm3 s–1 ha–1) were estimated for light, medium, and heavy soils in KR and RZ. The calculations used water-holding capacity of three soil types. Readily available water (RAW) in the 0–100 cm profile was assumed at 40 mm (light), 65 mm (medium), and 90 mm (heavy). ID and UID were calculated following Pittenger’s method [82].

2.6. Statistical Analysis

Statistical analysis assessed vineyard water requirements across regions and time periods, under both climate scenarios. The following statistics were calculated: minimum, maximum, average, median, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. Trends were evaluated using linear regression. Correlation (r) and determination (R2) coefficients were also computed. The statistical significance of correlations was tested for confidence levels of 90%, 95%, and 99%, depending on the number of decades analyzed. For the 1951–2020 and 2031–2100 periods (n = 7 decades), correlation was significant if r ≥ 0.6694 (90%), r ≥ 0.7545 (95%), or r ≥ 0.8745 (99%). For 1971–2020 (n = 5 decades), the thresholds were as follows: r ≥ 0.8054 (90%), r ≥ 0.8784 (95%), or r ≥ 0.95873 (99%) [83].

3. Results

3.1. Statistical Characteristics of Grapevine Water Requirements

The water requirements of grapevines in southern Poland were expressed as potential evapotranspiration. During the reference period, the average value of this parameter was 357.4 mm in KR and 344.0 mm in RZ (Table 3). Water requirements showed greater variability in RZ than in KR. Except for June, the coefficient of variation was higher in RZ than in KR throughout the growing season. As a result, the average coefficient of variation for the entire growing season was also higher in RZ compared to KR.
Descriptive statistics for grapevine water requirements under projected air temperature changes are presented in Table 4 and Table 5. Two climate scenarios were considered: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water requirements under RCP 4.5 are predicted to be lower than under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Similar to the reference period, forecasted average water requirements will be higher in RZ than in KR. The RCP 8.5 scenario is also associated with greater variability, as indicated by higher standard deviation and variation coefficients.

3.2. Daily and Cumulative Vineyard Water Requirements in the Growing Season

In the reference period, daily water requirements in KR were higher than in RZ throughout the growing season (Figure 1a). In both the reference and forecast periods, the highest daily values occurred in July. Daily water requirements are predicted to be higher under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5 in both regions.
Cumulative values illustrate the monthly increase in water requirements (Figure 1b). In the reference period, total evapotranspiration in KR was higher than in RZ. However, in the forecast period, RZ is projected to exceed KR under both climate scenarios. Total water requirements will be greater under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5.

3.3. Temporal Trends in Grapevine Water Requirements

Linear regression revealed a gradual increase in grapevine water requirements from 1951 to 2020 in both regions (Figure 2, Table 6). The trend was more pronounced in RZ, where water requirements rose by 7.4 mm per decade, compared to 6.4 mm per decade in KR.
Between 1951 and 1980, a decreasing trend was observed, followed by an increasing trend from 1981 onward (Figure 2). Therefore, a separate regression analysis was performed for 1971–2020 (Figure 3). It confirmed an upward trend in both locations. Water requirements increased by 13.7 mm per decade in KR and 13.4 mm per decade in RZ during this period (Table 6).
Table 7 shows the correlation coefficients for the regression equations shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3. Most periods revealed significant trends, especially for 1971–2020 (p < 0.01). The only exception was July in KR between 1951 and 1980, when no statistically significant trend was identified.
Under RCP 4.5, grapevine water requirements are expected to increase in each subsequent decade in both regions (Figure 4, Table 8).
Under RCP 8.5, a continuous increase in grapevine water requirements are projected (Figure 5). This scenario results in a higher increase: over 9 mm per decade compared to 2.6 mm per decade under RCP 4.5 (Table 8).
Table 9 confirms significant increasing trends under both scenarios. For the whole growing season, correlation coefficients were very high (≥0.962). In June–August, values were slightly lower under RCP 4.5 than under RCP 8.5.

3.4. Comparison of Grapevine Water Requirements in the Reference and Forecast Periods

Table 10 compares average grapevine water requirements for three time intervals (April–October, June–August, and July) under both scenarios. In both regions, greater increases are projected under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5. The increase is also higher in RZ than in KR. Compared to 1951–2020, water requirements are expected to rise by 10% in KR and 17% in RZ. Compared to 1971–2020, increases are 9% in KR and 14% in RZ. Increases during summer months (June–August, and July) are similar or slightly lower.
Table 11 compares water requirements in the most extreme decades of the reference and forecast periods. The most substantial increase is projected between 1971–1980 and 2091–2100 under RCP 8.5: 27% in KR and 33% in RZ. Summer values are slightly lower.

3.5. Precipitation Deficit During the Grapevine Growing Season

Table 12 presents precipitation deficits for both regions, calculated for three probability levels: p = 50% (normal years), p = 25% (medium dry years), and p = 10% (very dry years). In both regions, precipitation deficits are projected to increase, especially in RZ. The differences between scenarios are very small.

3.6. Water Reservoir Capacity for Vineyard Irrigation

Table 13 shows the required water reservoir capacity for a 5-ha vineyard, based on the precipitation deficit. The greatest reservoir capacity is needed in very dry years (with a 10% probability of occurrence, i.e., on average once every 10 years), where stored water should cover 90% of the vineyard water requirements. In normal years (with a 50% probability of occurrence, i.e., on average once every 2 years), reservoirs are expected to meet 50% of irrigation needs. The required reservoir capacity for irrigation is similar for both climate change scenarios, although slightly higher in RZ than in KR.

3.7. Irrigation Water Demand in Grapevine Cultivation

Table 14 presents irrigation water demand values and corresponding unitary irrigation water demand. In both the reference and forecast periods, in normal years (with a 50% probability of occurrence, i.e., on average once every 2 years), no supplementary irrigation is needed for any soil type. In medium-dry years (with a 25% probability of occurrence, i.e., on average once every 4 years), supplementary irrigation is required on light soils and, in the forecast period, also on medium-heavy soils. In very dry years (with a 10% probability of occurrence, i.e., on average once every 10 years), irrigation is necessary for all soil types, with the highest demand on light soils.

4. Discussion

Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a species with relatively high drought tolerance [84]. However, to optimize vineyard productivity, it is essential to maintain adequate soil moisture, especially during the growing season [85]. In recent decades, significant global climate changes have been observed, characterized by rising air temperatures and more frequent weather anomalies, such as irregular precipitation [40,78,86,87,88,89,90,91]. Climate warming enables vineyard establishment in new regions, including Poland [20,40,78,85,92,93,94,95,96,97]. However, according to most climate change scenarios, the projected rise in global air temperature will not be accompanied by increased precipitation [20,40,78,85,92,93,94,95,96,97]. This imbalance is expected to gradually raise crop water demands [45,46,47,48,49,50,98,99,100,101]. As a result, almost all viticulture regions worldwide are facing a growing need for irrigation infrastructure to maintain vineyard productivity [66,69,102,103,104].
Two main downscaling methods are commonly used in regional climate studies. The first involves statistical methods that establish relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) and local climatic conditions (predictands), typically derived from global climate models. A key limitation of this approach is the assumption that these relationships will remain valid under future climate conditions. The second group comprises dynamic methods, which use Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These models account for local geographical features, such as terrain and land use, and provide physically consistent simulations of atmospheric processes. In this study, the greenhouse gas emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 served as inputs for global climate models and, indirectly, for the RCMs used in the downscaling process [105].
In sustainable agriculture, which emphasizes rational natural resource management [106], a thorough understanding of crop water requirements is essential for determining irrigation needs and implementing efficient strategies [107]. According to recent studies, grapevine water requirements in Poland during the growing season vary by region, averaging approximately 414 mm in the north [53], 429 mm in the west [51], and 438 mm in central Poland [52]. Other sources report a range from 414 mm in southeastern and northwestern regions to 440 mm in central-northwestern and central-eastern parts of the country [108]. These estimates are based on 30-year (1981–2010) [51,53,108] and 40-year (1981–2020) [52] reference periods. In contrast, our study, based on a 70-year reference period (1951–2020), found lower average grapevine water requirements in southern Poland—about 351 mm in the two analyzed locations.
Predicted grapevine water demands in northern Poland in the 2021–2050 period are expected to increase by more than 5% compared to the 1981–2020 reference period [53]. In our study, projections for 2031–2100 suggest an increase in water demand of about 8% under RCP 4.5 and 13% under RCP 8.5, compared to the 1951–2020 reference period.
Temporal trends calculated in this study show that water demand for grapevines in southern Poland increased by more than 13 mm per decade during the 1971–2020 period. Similar upward trends are projected for 2031–2100 under both climate scenarios. Previous studies also report increasing grapevine water requirements across Poland [108], with the strongest trends in central Poland [52]. In eastern Poland, rising vineyard water demands have been particularly evident from June to August [51]. Whereas, in northern Poland, a significant increase is projected for August during 2021–2050 [53].
Earlier studies estimated that, during dry seasons, the precipitation deficit in vineyards reached 275 mm in western Poland (1981–2010) [51] and 322 mm in central Poland (1981–2020) [52]. Our findings show lower precipitation deficits in southern Poland: in the very dry years of the reference period (1951–2020), it was 113 mm. For the forecast period (2031–2100), both scenarios predict a precipitation deficit in normal and medium dry years, with particularly severe deficits in very dry years, averaging 127 mm under RCP 4.5 and 130 mm under RCP 8.5.
The model used to estimate vineyard water requirements (ETp = Kc × ETo) can be applied to other crops or regions, provided that crop-specific Kc values and region-specific ETo estimates based on air temperature are available. In our study, the increase in grapevine water demand results solely from rising air temperatures. We did not include changes in other meteorological elements, such as sunshine duration, solar radiation, humidity, or wind speed, which also influence evapotranspiration. Additionally, we assumed that the relationship between air temperature and evapotranspiration, as well as the crop coefficient (Kc for grapevines), remains constant over time. However, there is no evidence to confirm that these relationships and parameters will remain unchanged under future climate conditions [72,73,74].
Our evaluation of irrigation water demand and unit irrigation demand confirms the need for the supplementary irrigation of vineyards in southern Poland, particularly on soils with low water retention. In very dry years, irrigation will be essential across all soil types. Given rising crop water requirements and growing precipitation deficits, supplementary irrigation is becoming increasingly necessary. This need has been demonstrated for various crops in Poland, including watermelon [98], miscanthus [45], willow [46], asparagus [50,99], soybean [47], jerusalem artichoke [49], cup plant [100], and fruit trees [48,101]. As adverse climate changes intensify, irrigation is expected to play an even greater role in Polish agriculture [109,110].
Rising agricultural water demand, intensified by climate change, presents major challenges for local water management policies. As Martínez-Valderrama et al. [111] suggest, effective adaptation requires more than traditional supply-side solutions. Integrated approaches, such as economic instruments, legal regulations, and support for water-saving technologies, will be increasingly important. In southern Poland, local authorities may need to promote micro-irrigation systems and improve water retention infrastructure as part of a broader adaptation strategy.
This study provides valuable insights into vineyard water requirements in southern Poland and underscores the growing need for irrigation infrastructure under future climate scenarios. The projected rise in grapevine water demand and increasing precipitation deficit highlight the importance of adapting water management strategies to ensure continued vineyard productivity. In particular, supplementary irrigation systems will be crucial in areas with low soil water retention. These findings can guide irrigation planning and help optimize water resource use. Estimating future water deficits will support decisions to invest in water-saving technologies, such as precision irrigation. As climate change alters rainfall patterns and raises temperatures, efficient irrigation will become even more critical. Future research should integrate these projections into regional water management policies and explore innovative irrigation techniques to enhance water use efficiency in viticulture. This study emphasizes the urgency of addressing climate change impacts to ensure the long-term sustainability of wine production in Poland.

5. Conclusions

This study shows that, during the growing season (April–October) in the projected period (2031–2100), grapevines in southern Poland will require significantly more water, regardless of the climate change scenario. The increase in water demand will be greater under the RCP 8.5 scenario than under RCP 4.5. In both cases, however, the rising precipitation deficit will worsen water shortages. Vineyards on light soils will be particularly vulnerable. In very dry years, irrigation will be necessary on all soil types. In medium dry years, it will mainly be required on light soils, which are more susceptible to moisture deficits. These findings offer a practical basis for planning irrigation systems and water storage infrastructure. Vineyard managers should consider investing in efficient and flexible irrigation technologies, adapted to local soil conditions and changing water availability. Policymakers should also take these results into account when developing regional water and agriculture strategies. To support the long-term sustainability of vineyards, further efforts are needed to design targeted adaptation measures. These may include improved irrigation scheduling, soil conservation practices, and the use of drought-tolerant grapevine cultivars. Continued research and monitoring will be essential for effective climate adaptation in viticulture in southern Poland and similar regions.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, S.R., W.K.-W. and R.R.; methodology, S.R. and T.B.; software, S.R. and R.R.; validation, S.R. and R.R.; formal analysis, S.R.; investigation, S.R. and W.K.-W.; resources, S.R. and T.B.; data curation, S.R. and W.K.-W.; writing—original draft preparation, S.R., B.J. and W.K.-W.; writing—review and editing, S.R., B.J. and W.K.-W.; visualization, B.J.; supervision, S.R.; project administration, S.R. and W.K.-W.; funding acquisition, S.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

Data are contained within this article.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Figure 1. Daily average (a) and cumulative (b) grapevine water requirements (ETp) in the reference and forecast periods.
Figure 1. Daily average (a) and cumulative (b) grapevine water requirements (ETp) in the reference and forecast periods.
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Figure 2. Temporal trend of grapevine water requirements (ETp) during 1951–2020.
Figure 2. Temporal trend of grapevine water requirements (ETp) during 1951–2020.
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Figure 3. Temporal trend of grapevine water requirements (ETp) during 1971–2020.
Figure 3. Temporal trend of grapevine water requirements (ETp) during 1971–2020.
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Figure 4. Temporal trend of grapevine water requirements (ETp) during 2031–2100 under RCP 4.5.
Figure 4. Temporal trend of grapevine water requirements (ETp) during 2031–2100 under RCP 4.5.
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Figure 5. Temporal trend of water requirements (ETp) during 2031–2100 under RCP 8.5.
Figure 5. Temporal trend of water requirements (ETp) during 2031–2100 under RCP 8.5.
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Table 1. Characteristics of thermal and pluvial conditions in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions during the reference period (1951–2020).
Table 1. Characteristics of thermal and pluvial conditions in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions during the reference period (1951–2020).
RegionCharacteristicMonths of the Growing Season
AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober
Monthly average air temperature (°C)
KrakowMinimum5.610.414.416.215.110.56.1
Maximum14.517.722.822.422.016.312.7
Mean9.114.117.519.118.413.99.0
RzeszowMinimum4.69.614.315.414.610.35.7
Maximum14.017.021.521.922.316.312.5
Mean8.313.416.918.517.913.58.6
Monthly precipitation totals (mm)
KrakowMinimum4.423.34.214.212.26.50.1
Maximum127.7302.4196.8285.0185.9179.8160.3
Mean47.078.087.392.179.457.945.9
RzeszowMinimum3.79.84.810.34.97.73.4
Maximum133.0177.0174.5233.8164.5141.7182.1
Mean44.073.481.791.269.657.144.6
Table 2. Crop and empirical coefficient values for different months of the growing season: (A) grapevine crop coefficient according to Penman–Monteith method [72,75,76,77,78], (B) crop coefficient developed in this study and applied to estimate grapevine water requirements in southern Poland, (C) and empirical coefficient α for reference evapotranspiration according to Treder method [74].
Table 2. Crop and empirical coefficient values for different months of the growing season: (A) grapevine crop coefficient according to Penman–Monteith method [72,75,76,77,78], (B) crop coefficient developed in this study and applied to estimate grapevine water requirements in southern Poland, (C) and empirical coefficient α for reference evapotranspiration according to Treder method [74].
Kc ValuesMonths of the Growing Season
AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober
A0.350.500.700.800.800.650.45
B0.300.530.760.850.760.500.31
C0.280.210.190.180.170.160.15
Table 3. Descriptive statistics of vineyard water requirements (mm) during the reference period in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions.
Table 3. Descriptive statistics of vineyard water requirements (mm) during the reference period in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions.
CharacteristicMonths of the Growing Season
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctApr–Oct
Krakow Region
Minimum (mm)19.845.971.683.968.430.811.4331.7
Maximum (mm)26.551.984.096.880.135.914.0387.4
Mean (mm)22.848.676.490.573.133.013.0357.4
Median (mm)23.049.176.291.073.433.012.9353.9
Standard Deviation (mm)2.42.44.24.94.21.50.818.3
Variation Coefficient (%)10.34.95.55.45.84.66.25.1
Rzeszow Region
Minimum (mm)17.443.269.281.666.730.211.0320.7
Maximum (mm)24.949.881.094.678.735.413.6375.8
Mean (mm)20.846.373.687.771.232.112.3344.0
Median (mm)21.146.872.887.469.432.312.5338.0
Standard Deviation (mm)2.52.73.84.94.31.70.818.9
Variation Coefficient (%)12.25.85.25.56.15.46.45.5
Table 4. Descriptive statistics of vineyard water requirements (mm) in the forecast period under the RCP 4.5 scenario in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions.
Table 4. Descriptive statistics of vineyard water requirements (mm) in the forecast period under the RCP 4.5 scenario in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions.
CharacteristicMonths of the Growing Season
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctApr–Oct
Krakow Region
Minimum (mm)22.346.975.893.976.036.114.3366.1
Maximum (mm)25.049.778.497.779.638.015.5382.3
Mean (mm)23.748.277.195.978.636.915.0375.3
Median (mm)23.547.677.195.879.236.615.0377.0
Standard Deviation (mm)0.91.11.11.51.20.80.55.8
Variation Coefficient (%)3.92.31.41.51.62.13.11.6
Rzeszow Region
Minimum (mm)22.848.077.195.376.836.114.2371.1
Maximum (mm)25.550.779.799.180.438.015.5387.6
Mean (mm)24.249.378.697.179.437.014.9380.5
Median (mm)24.048.778.896.780.036.814.9382.1
Standard Deviation (mm)1.01.11.01.41.20.70.55.7
Variation Coefficient (%)4.12.21.31.41.51.93.21.5
Table 5. Descriptive statistics of vineyard water requirements (mm) in the forecast period under RCP 8.5 scenario in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions.
Table 5. Descriptive statistics of vineyard water requirements (mm) in the forecast period under RCP 8.5 scenario in the Krakow and Rzeszow regions.
CharacteristicMonths of the Growing Season
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctApr–Oct
Krakow Region
Minimum (mm)23.547.375.394.476.836.414.9368.6
Maximum (mm)28.854.584.0105.788.042.817.9421.8
Mean (mm)25.749.979.699.382.239.216.4392.2
Median (mm)25.849.778.898.681.639.516.6390.6
Standard Deviation (mm)1.92.63.34.84.42.51.020.3
Variation Coefficient (%)7.55.24.14.85.46.56.25.2
Rzeszow Region
Minimum (mm)24.348.377.195.877.636.414.8374.2
Maximum (mm)29.555.985.8107.289.242.817.8428.2
Mean (mm)26.451.081.3100.982.939.216.2397.9
Median (mm)26.550.780.6100.582.039.516.5396.3
Standard Deviation (mm)1.92.73.34.64.32.41.020.0
Variation Coefficient (%)7.05.34.14.55.26.26.15.0
Table 6. Increase in grapevine water requirements (mm per decade) in the 70-year (1951–2020) and 50-year (1971–2020) reference periods.
Table 6. Increase in grapevine water requirements (mm per decade) in the 70-year (1951–2020) and 50-year (1971–2020) reference periods.
PeriodKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
1951–20201971–20201951–20201971–2020
April–October6.413.77.413.4
June–August4.29.44.69.2
July1.53.41.73.3
Table 7. Correlation coefficient (r) and significance of temporal trends in grapevine water requirements during the reference periods (1951–2020 and 1971–2020).
Table 7. Correlation coefficient (r) and significance of temporal trends in grapevine water requirements during the reference periods (1951–2020 and 1971–2020).
PeriodKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
1951–20201971–20201951–20201971–2020
April–October0.757 **0.997 ***0.853 **0.993 ***
June–August0.702 *0.997 ***0.787 **0.997 ***
July0.665 ns0.966 ***0.739 *0.956 **
ns—not significant; ***—significant at p < 0.01; **—significant at p < 0.05; *—significant at p < 0.1.
Table 8. Predicted increase in grapevine water requirements (mm per decade) during the projected period.
Table 8. Predicted increase in grapevine water requirements (mm per decade) during the projected period.
PeriodKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
RCP 4.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 8.5
April–October2.69.32.69.2
June–August1.35.71.35.6
July0.52.20.52.1
Table 9. Correlation coefficient (r) and significance of temporal trends in grapevine water requirements during the forecast period.
Table 9. Correlation coefficient (r) and significance of temporal trends in grapevine water requirements during the forecast period.
PeriodKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
RCP 4.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 8.5
April–October0.962 ***0.992 ***0.968 ***0.992 ***
June–August0.812 **0.990 ***0.815 **0.992 ***
July0.802 **0.976 ***0.822 **0.986 ***
***—significant at p < 0.01; **—significant at p < 0.05.
Table 10. Comparison of average grapevine water requirements (mm) in the reference and forecast periods in the Krakow (KR) and Rzeszow (RZ) regions.
Table 10. Comparison of average grapevine water requirements (mm) in the reference and forecast periods in the Krakow (KR) and Rzeszow (RZ) regions.
PeriodApril–OctoberJune–AugustJuly
KRRZKRRZKRRZ
Reference period
1951–2020 (A)3573442402329088
1971–2020 (B)3603482422359189
Forecast period
2031–2100 acc. to RCP 4.5 (C)3753812522559697
2031–2100 acc. to RCP 8.5 (D)39239826126599101
Difference
C—A18 = 5%37 = 11%12 = 5%23 = 10%6 = 7%9 = 10%
D—A35 = 10%54 = 17%21 = 9%33 = 14%9 = 10%13 = 15%
C—B15 = 4%33 = 9%10 = 4%20 = 9%5 = 5%8 = 9%
D—B32 = 9%50 = 14%19 = 8%30 = 13%8 = 9%12 = 13%
Table 11. Comparison of grapevine water requirements (mm) in the extreme decades of the reference and forecast periods in the Krakow (KR) and Rzeszow (RZ) regions.
Table 11. Comparison of grapevine water requirements (mm) in the extreme decades of the reference and forecast periods in the Krakow (KR) and Rzeszow (RZ) regions.
PeriodApril–OctoberJune–AugustJuly
KRRZKRRZKRRZ
Reference period
1951–1960 (A)3543332412309287
1971–1980 (B)3323212242188482
Forecast period
2091–2100 acc. to RCP 4.5 (C)3823882552589899
2091–2100 acc. to RCP 8.5 (D)422428278282106107
Difference
C—A28 = 8%55 = 17%14 = 6%28 = 12%6 = 7%12 = 14%
D—A61 = 17%95 = 29%37 = 15%52 = 23%14 = 15%20 = 23%
C—B50 = 15%67 = 21%31 = 14%40 = 18%14 = 17%17 = 21%
D—B90 = 27%107 = 33%54 = 24%64 = 29%22 = 26%25 = 30%
Table 12. Precipitation deficit (mm) during the grapevine growing season in the reference and forecast periods.
Table 12. Precipitation deficit (mm) during the grapevine growing season in the reference and forecast periods.
PeriodKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
Normal
Years		Medium Dry
Years		Very Dry
Years		Normal
Years		Medium Dry
Years		Very Dry
Years
Reference period–57111364115
Forecast period acc. to RCP 4.514711222481132
Forecast period acc. to RCP 8.511711242282135
Table 13. Net capacity (m3) of the water reservoirs for irrigation of 5 ha vineyards.
Table 13. Net capacity (m3) of the water reservoirs for irrigation of 5 ha vineyards.
CharacteristicKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
Normal
Years		Medium Dry
Years		Very Dry
Years		Normal
Years		Medium Dry
Years		Very Dry
Years
Probability of occurrence50%25%10%50%25%10%
Protection of the water needs50%75%90%50%75%90%
Reference period–2850555015032005750
Forecast period acc. to RCP 4.570035506100120040506600
Forecast period acc. to RCP 8.555035506200110041006750
Table 14. Irrigation water demand (ID; mm) and unitary irrigation water demand of vineyards (UID; dm3 s−1 ha−1) in both regions.
Table 14. Irrigation water demand (ID; mm) and unitary irrigation water demand of vineyards (UID; dm3 s−1 ha−1) in both regions.
CharacteristicKrakow RegionRzeszow Region
Light SoilMedium SoilHeavy SoilLight SoilMedium SoilHeavy Soil
IDUIDIDUIDIDUIDIDUIDIDUIDIDUID
Reference period
Normal years (p = 50%)––––––––––––
Medium dry years (p = 25%)170.021––––240.030––––
Very dry years (p = 10%)710.067460.043210.020750.071500.047250.024
Forecast period acc. to RCP 4.5
Normal years (p = 50%)––––––––––––
Medium dry years (p = 25%)310.03960.007––410.052160.020––
Very dry years (p = 10%)820.103570.072320.040920.116670.084420.053
Forecast period acc. to RCP 8.5
Normal years (p = 50%)––––––––––––
Medium dry years (p = 25%)310.03960.007––420.053170.021––
Very dry years (p = 10%)840.106590.074340.043950.119700.088450.057
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Rolbiecki, S.; Jagosz, B.; Kasperska-Wołowicz, W.; Rolbiecki, R.; Bolewski, T. Forecasting Vineyard Water Needs in Southern Poland Under Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability 2025, 17, 4766. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114766

AMA Style

Rolbiecki S, Jagosz B, Kasperska-Wołowicz W, Rolbiecki R, Bolewski T. Forecasting Vineyard Water Needs in Southern Poland Under Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability. 2025; 17(11):4766. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114766

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rolbiecki, Stanisław, Barbara Jagosz, Wiesława Kasperska-Wołowicz, Roman Rolbiecki, and Tymoteusz Bolewski. 2025. "Forecasting Vineyard Water Needs in Southern Poland Under Climate Change Scenarios" Sustainability 17, no. 11: 4766. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114766

APA Style

Rolbiecki, S., Jagosz, B., Kasperska-Wołowicz, W., Rolbiecki, R., & Bolewski, T. (2025). Forecasting Vineyard Water Needs in Southern Poland Under Climate Change Scenarios. Sustainability, 17(11), 4766. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114766

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