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How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic

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Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Center, Rudower Chaussee 7, 12489 Berlin, Germany
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INWT Statistics GmbH, Hauptstrasse 8, 10827 Berlin, Germany
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Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Baojie He, Ayyoob Sharifi, Chi Feng and Jun Yang
Sustainability 2021, 13(18), 10254; https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810254
Received: 12 August 2021 / Revised: 6 September 2021 / Accepted: 10 September 2021 / Published: 14 September 2021
(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability)
Bicycle usage is significantly affected by weather conditions. Climate change is, therefore, expected to have an impact on the volume of bicycle traffic, which is an important factor in the planning and design of bicycle infrastructures. To predict bicycle traffic in a changed climate in the city of Berlin, this paper compares a traditional statistical approach to three machine learning models. For this purpose, a cross-validation procedure is developed that evaluates model performance on the basis of prediction accuracy. XGBoost showed the best performance and is used for the prediction of bicycle counts. Our results indicate that we can expect an overall annual increase in bicycle traffic of 1–4% in the city of Berlin due to the changes in local weather conditions caused by global climate change. The biggest changes are expected to occur in the winter season with increases of 11–14% due to rising temperatures and only slight increases in precipitation. View Full-Text
Keywords: bicycle traffic; time series; weather; climate change; machine learning bicycle traffic; time series; weather; climate change; machine learning
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MDPI and ACS Style

Galich, A.; Nieland, S.; Lenz, B.; Blechschmidt, J. How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic. Sustainability 2021, 13, 10254. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810254

AMA Style

Galich A, Nieland S, Lenz B, Blechschmidt J. How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic. Sustainability. 2021; 13(18):10254. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810254

Chicago/Turabian Style

Galich, Anton, Simon Nieland, Barbara Lenz, and Jan Blechschmidt. 2021. "How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic" Sustainability 13, no. 18: 10254. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810254

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