This paper proposes a modal-shift analysis methodology based on a mix of small-scale primary data and big data sources to estimate the total amount of trips that are reallocated to transportation network companies (TNCs) services in Bogotá, Colombia. The analysis is focused on the following four modes: public transportation, private vehicles, conventional taxis, and TNC services. Based on a stated preferences survey and secondary databases of travel times and costs, the paper proposes a methodology to estimate the reallocation of travel demand once TNCs start operating. Results suggests that approximately one third of public transportation trips are potentially transferred to TNCs. Moreover, potential taxi and private vehicle–transferred trips account for almost 30% of the new TNC demand. Additionally, approximately half of the trips that are reallocated from public transport demand can be considered as complementary, while the remaining share can be considered as potential replacing trips of public transportation. The paper also estimates the potential increase in Vehicle-km travelled in each of the modes before and after substitution as a proxy to the effects of demand reallocation on sustainability, finding increases between 1.3 and 14.5 times the number of Vehicle-km depending on the mode. The paper highlights the role of open data and critical perspectives on available information to analyze potential scenarios of the introduction of disruptive technologies and their spatial, social, and economic implications.
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