A Fuzzy Logic Concept for Predicting the Seasonal Thermal Performance of Building Envelopes Based on Structural and Geographical Parameters

The current practice of building thermal retrofitting is based on the outcomes of energy audits that make use of standardized tabulated information mapped on a structure or structural elements under inherently very specific conditions. Therefore, it provides very limited outcomes for further analysis, especially when decision making procedures are required to particularize the retrofitting strategy. This paper introduces a novel fuzzy logic approach for predicting the thermal performance of building walls that can be used in practice to partially substitute time-consuming and costly energy audits or complex computational analyses. The objective of this concept is to forecast the annual heating energy demands of buildings and to identify the potential energy savings that could be achieved by applying thermal retrofitting measures based on limited resources and information obtained from maps, blueprints, and/or a simple site inspection. For this purpose, a sample knowledge base was created using a validated computational model of the heat and moisture transport in the multilayered wall assemblies. Then, the fuzzy logic model was introduced to predict the thermal performance of selected walls. Our comparison of the fuzzy model outputs with simulated data proved the potential of using the proposed concept as an efficient and straightforward tool for predicting the seasonal thermal performance of building envelopes and to partially replace the current practice, which requires the utilization of building energy audits.