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Search Results (3,071)

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Keywords = traffic flow

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18 pages, 1430 KB  
Article
Multi-Layer Traffic Analysis Framework for DDoS Attacks in Software-Defined IoT Networks
by Keerthana Balaji and Mamatha Balachandra
Future Internet 2026, 18(3), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/fi18030164 - 19 Mar 2026
Abstract
The data plane and the control plane are targets for Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks in the Software-Defined Internet of Things (SDIoT). Currently available studies rely on observations from a single network layer which limits the cross-layer attack analysis. This paper presents [...] Read more.
The data plane and the control plane are targets for Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks in the Software-Defined Internet of Things (SDIoT). Currently available studies rely on observations from a single network layer which limits the cross-layer attack analysis. This paper presents a synchronized, phase-aware, and a multi-layer traffic collection framework mimicking SDIoT environments under diverse DDoS attack scenarios. The data collected are the metrics captured at host, switch, and controller layers during normal, attack, and post-attack phases with strict temporal alignment. For capturing diverse DDoS attack behaviors in SDIoT environments, representative data plane attacks including volumetric flooding and switch-level flow table saturation were used. Control plane level attack targeting the SDN controller was implemented. The evaluation was done using a Mininet-based SDIoT testbed with a POX controller. Each scenario is executed across five independent runs with statistical validation. The proposed framework enables reproducible and time-aligned multi-layer analysis through standardized orchestration and automated logging. Results indicate that SDIoT DDoS behavior demonstrates differently across traffic, state, and resource-level metrics, and that accurate characterization benefits from temporally aligned multi-layer monitoring rather than relying solely on packet rate analysis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cybersecurity, Privacy, and Trust in Intelligent Networked Systems)
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21 pages, 511 KB  
Review
Smart Urban Logistics and Tube-Based Freight Systems: A Review of Technological Integration and Implementation Barriers
by Fellaki Soumaya, Molk Oukili Garti, Arif Jabir and Jawab Fouad
Smart Cities 2026, 9(3), 52; https://doi.org/10.3390/smartcities9030052 - 19 Mar 2026
Abstract
Background: Smart urban logistics has emerged as a key element of sustainable city development, with direct effects on economic performance, environmental quality, and urban livability. Issues with traffic, pollutants, infrastructure strain, and last-mile delivery efficiency have become more pressing due to rapid urbanization [...] Read more.
Background: Smart urban logistics has emerged as a key element of sustainable city development, with direct effects on economic performance, environmental quality, and urban livability. Issues with traffic, pollutants, infrastructure strain, and last-mile delivery efficiency have become more pressing due to rapid urbanization and the expansion of e-commerce. In this regard, underground or enclosed corridor-based tube-based freight transit systems have surfaced as a viable smart infrastructure option for automated and low-impact commodities delivery. Methods: This study adopts an analytical literature review complemented by a structured case study analysis to examine the potential role of tube-based freight transport systems in future urban logistics. Key technological concepts, including pneumatic tubes, automated capsule transport, and integration with digital platforms, the Physical Internet, and smart city management systems, are examined through a structured analytical review of the literature. Results: The outcome of the reviewed studies indicates that tube-based systems can contribute to congestion alleviation, emission reduction, and improved delivery reliability by shifting selected freight flows away from surface transport networks. However, governance frameworks, infrastructure integration, and institutional coordination mechanisms continue to have a significant impact on claimed performance outcomes. Conclusions: Tube-based freight systems represent a promising but conditional pathway toward smarter and more sustainable urban logistics. Their large-scale deployment is forced by high capital costs, standardization challenges, regulatory uncertainty, and social acceptance issues. Coordinated investment plans, encouraging legal frameworks, and integrated urban planning techniques in line with smart city goals are needed to overcome these obstacles. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Smart Urban Mobility, Transport, and Logistics)
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20 pages, 3290 KB  
Article
Decoding the Urban Digital Landscape for Sustainable Infrastructure Planning: Evidence from Mobile Network Traffic in Beijing
by Jiale Qian, Sai Wang, Yi Ji, Zhen Wang, Ruihua Dang and Yunpeng Wu
Sustainability 2026, 18(6), 3007; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18063007 - 19 Mar 2026
Abstract
Sustainable urban development increasingly depends on understanding how digital activity is distributed across space and time, yet the spatiotemporal dynamics of the urban digital landscape remain poorly mapped by conventional data sources. This study uses Beijing as an empirical testbed, applying a multi-dimensional [...] Read more.
Sustainable urban development increasingly depends on understanding how digital activity is distributed across space and time, yet the spatiotemporal dynamics of the urban digital landscape remain poorly mapped by conventional data sources. This study uses Beijing as an empirical testbed, applying a multi-dimensional analytical framework to massive mobile network traffic data to decode the metabolic rhythms, distributional laws, and functional organization of the urban digital landscape. The results reveal three findings. First, the urban digital landscape exhibits a sleepless trapezoidal temporal rhythm characterized by continuous saturation without a midday trough and a quantifiable weekend activation lag, indicating that digital metabolism is structurally decoupled from physical mobility patterns. Second, digital traffic follows a skew-normal distribution consistent with a 20/70 rule of spatial polarization, in which the top 20% of super-connector nodes sustain approximately 70% of total urban digital flow, yielding a Gini coefficient of 0.68 as a measurable indicator of infrastructure inequality and systemic vulnerability. Third, four distinct functional prototypes are identified—ranging from continuously active metropolitan cores to inverse-tidal ecological peripheries—empirically validating Beijing’s polycentric transformation through the lens of digital flows. These findings demonstrate that large-scale mobile network traffic data offers a replicable and structurally distinct lens for sustainable urban digital governance, supporting resilient network planning, equitable allocation of digital resources, and evidence-based monitoring of urban functional transformation in rapidly growing megacities. Full article
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14 pages, 418 KB  
Article
Traffic Accident Risk Assessment at Urban Signalized Intersections Using Cellular Automata Modeling
by Laila Taoufiq, Omar Bamaarouf, Abdelmajid Kadiri and Rachid Marzoug
Modelling 2026, 7(2), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/modelling7020057 - 17 Mar 2026
Viewed by 95
Abstract
Traffic accidents at urban intersections represent a major road safety concern, particularly those caused by traffic signal violations. To analyze accident mechanisms and develop effective prevention strategies, this study employs a cellular automata model to investigate the relationship between accident probability [...] Read more.
Traffic accidents at urban intersections represent a major road safety concern, particularly those caused by traffic signal violations. To analyze accident mechanisms and develop effective prevention strategies, this study employs a cellular automata model to investigate the relationship between accident probability Pac and traffic parameters at signalized intersections. Simulation results reveal a nonlinear relationship between Pac and traffic demand. The accident probability reaches a maximum under free-flow conditions and subsequently decreases as congestion increases, eventually stabilizing at a nearly constant level under highly congested traffic. Additionally, collision risk increases with lane-changing probability Pchg, especially upstream of the intersection. High traffic speeds significantly elevate both accident probability and severity. Finally, the results indicate that extending traffic signal cycle durations is not an effective strategy for reducing accident risk. Overall, the proposed model provides a useful framework for estimating accident risk under different traffic conditions and supporting traffic management, including control decisions aimed at improving road safety. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Modelling Techniques in Transportation Engineering)
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19 pages, 2330 KB  
Article
Mercury: Accelerating 3D Parallel Training with an AWGR-WSS-Based All-Optical Reconfigurable Network
by Shi Feng, Jiawei Zhang, Huitao Zhou, Xingde Li and Yuefeng Ji
Photonics 2026, 13(3), 286; https://doi.org/10.3390/photonics13030286 - 16 Mar 2026
Viewed by 170
Abstract
The network traffic of 3D parallel training in large-scale deep learning, featuring burstiness, hot-spots, and periodic large-bandwidth patterns, severely challenges network efficiency, necessitating a high-performance and flexible optical network solution. To address this, this paper proposes Mercury, a hybrid optical network based on [...] Read more.
The network traffic of 3D parallel training in large-scale deep learning, featuring burstiness, hot-spots, and periodic large-bandwidth patterns, severely challenges network efficiency, necessitating a high-performance and flexible optical network solution. To address this, this paper proposes Mercury, a hybrid optical network based on physical optical components: its optical timeslot switching (OTS) subnet uses an arrayed waveguide grating router (AWGR) and tunable lasers for dynamic traffic, while the optical circuit switching (OCS) subnet relies on wavelength selective switches (WSSs) for low-latency high-bandwidth transmission, which is coordinated by selective valiant load balancing (S-VLB) and most efficient path configuration (MEPC) mechanisms. Validated via simulations and FPGA-based testbed experiments, Mercury outperforms the Sirius network by reducing epoch training time (e.g., 179s with five jobs) and relieving OTS congestion through offloading large flows to OCS. This work demonstrates that Mercury provides a flexible, high-performance physical optical solution for 3D parallel training of large-scale deep learning models. Full article
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21 pages, 2363 KB  
Article
Probabilistic Modeling of Inter-Vehicle Spacing on Two-Lane Roads: Implications for Safety-Oriented and Sustainable Traffic Operations
by Andrea Pompigna, Giuseppe Cantisani and Giulia Del Serrone
Sustainability 2026, 18(6), 2896; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062896 - 16 Mar 2026
Viewed by 193
Abstract
Accurate characterization of inter-vehicle spacing is fundamental for safety assessment and sustainable operation of road networks, particularly on two-lane rural roads where monitoring infrastructure is limited. Unlike temporal headways, vehicle spacing directly reflects physical vehicle interactions and roadway occupancy, making it a more [...] Read more.
Accurate characterization of inter-vehicle spacing is fundamental for safety assessment and sustainable operation of road networks, particularly on two-lane rural roads where monitoring infrastructure is limited. Unlike temporal headways, vehicle spacing directly reflects physical vehicle interactions and roadway occupancy, making it a more appropriate variable for evaluating collision risk and operational efficiency. This study develops a probabilistic framework for modeling vehicle spacing based on the statistical isomorphism between Event Flows and Linear Fields of Random Points. Using a calibrated microscopic simulation model, spacing distributions are generated for unidirectional traffic over flow rates from 100 to 1300 veh/h. A Pearson Type III distribution is shown to consistently reproduce the observed asymmetry, kurtosis, and non-zero minimum spacing across traffic regimes. Distribution parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood and validated using a heuristic Kolmogorov–Smirnov procedure suitable for large samples. Results demonstrate systematic relationships between spacing distribution parameters and macroscopic traffic variables, enabling estimation of the probability of unsafe spacing conditions from commonly available traffic data. The proposed framework supports sustainability-oriented traffic management by providing a quantitative basis for safety evaluation and operational control without requiring extensive sensing infrastructure. Full article
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12 pages, 765 KB  
Article
A Bayesian-Optimized Mixture of Experts Framework for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction
by Jianqing Wu, Jiaao Ren, Hui Wang, Fei Xie, Shaohan Chen and Mengjie Jiang
Modelling 2026, 7(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/modelling7020055 - 16 Mar 2026
Viewed by 126
Abstract
Accurate and reliable short-term traffic flow prediction is crucial for managing urban congestion but is challenged by the complex spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in traffic systems. Conventional single models, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), often fail to capture [...] Read more.
Accurate and reliable short-term traffic flow prediction is crucial for managing urban congestion but is challenged by the complex spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in traffic systems. Conventional single models, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), often fail to capture these nonlinear dynamics. To address this, we propose a novel Bayesian-Optimized Mixture of Experts (BO-MoE) framework. This hybrid architecture utilizes a Mixture of Experts (MoE) to dynamically integrate multiple specialized deep learning models, allowing it to adapt to diverse and complex traffic patterns. Bayesian Optimization (BO) is further integrated to automate hyperparameter tuning, significantly enhancing predictive accuracy and model efficiency. We evaluated BO-MoE on three real-world traffic datasets. Empirical results demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines, including TCN. Specifically, on PEMS04, it reduces MAE, RMSE, and MAPE by 1.97%, 1.19%, and 3.23%, respectively, while on PEMS08, the corresponding reductions reach 3.83%, 1.26%, and 5.49%. On the NZ dataset, BO-MoE also achieves superior performance, with improvements comparable to those on PEMS benchmarks. Full article
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20 pages, 2758 KB  
Article
A Dynamic Risk Assessment System for Expressway Lane-Changing: Integrating Bayesian Networks and Markov Chains Under High-Density Traffic
by Quantao Yang and Peikun Li
Systems 2026, 14(3), 306; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14030306 - 15 Mar 2026
Viewed by 164
Abstract
In high-density expressway environments, lane-changing (LC) maneuvers act as stochastic perturbations that compromise the hydrodynamic stability of traffic flow, leading to safety hazards and operational delays. While existing literature has extensively modeled crash severity in static complex environments (e.g., tunnels and mountainous terrains), [...] Read more.
In high-density expressway environments, lane-changing (LC) maneuvers act as stochastic perturbations that compromise the hydrodynamic stability of traffic flow, leading to safety hazards and operational delays. While existing literature has extensively modeled crash severity in static complex environments (e.g., tunnels and mountainous terrains), there remains a critical deficiency in quantifying the dynamic, systemic risks induced by LC maneuvers under saturation conditions. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel Systemic Risk Assessment Framework. First, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is employed to decode the latent state transitions of following vehicles, quantifying the systemic consequence of LC maneuvers as “operational delay” based on traffic wave theory. Second, a Bayesian Network (BN) is constructed to infer the causal probability of risk, integrating geometric proxies such as insertion angle with kinematic variables. Validated with real-world trajectory data, the model achieves high accuracy in identifying risk accumulation precursors. This research contributes to the field of transportation systems by shifting the risk paradigm from static collision prediction to dynamic system reliability analysis, offering theoretical support for Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) decision logic. Full article
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33 pages, 8047 KB  
Article
Probabilistic Modeling of Urban Vehicle Traffic Under COVID-19 Mobility Restrictions Using AI-Based Video Data: A Case Study in Cluj-Napoca
by Nicolae Filip, Calin Iclodean and Marius Deac
Vehicles 2026, 8(3), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/vehicles8030059 - 15 Mar 2026
Viewed by 107
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting mobility restrictions significantly disrupted urban traffic patterns. This study quantitatively assesses the impact of these restrictions on vehicle flow at a signalized central intersection in Cluj-Napoca, Romania, through an integrated methodology combining continuous radar-based traffic measurements and [...] Read more.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting mobility restrictions significantly disrupted urban traffic patterns. This study quantitatively assesses the impact of these restrictions on vehicle flow at a signalized central intersection in Cluj-Napoca, Romania, through an integrated methodology combining continuous radar-based traffic measurements and AI (Artificial Intelligence)-assisted video analysis. Traffic data were collected before the pandemic (November 2019) and during the lockdown period (April 2020), enabling a comparative evaluation of flow characteristics and vehicle arrival patterns. Under constrained observational conditions, vehicle arrivals were modeled using a probabilistic framework grounded in Poisson distribution. The findings indicate a dramatic contraction of mobility demand, with traffic volumes declining in 2020 to 9.55% of pre-pandemic levels. The probabilistic assessment highlights the predominance of free-flow regimes under reduced demand and confirms the adequacy of the Poisson model in low-density traffic scenarios. The obtained results contribute to a better understanding of urban traffic dynamics under extreme mobility disruptions and provide a transferable methodological framework for probabilistic traffic modeling, resilience-oriented urban mobility planning, and data-driven traffic management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Intelligent Mobility and Sustainable Automotive Technologies)
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26 pages, 11061 KB  
Article
CTSTSpace: A Framework for Behavior Pattern Recognition and Perturbation Analysis Based on Campus Traffic Semantic Trajectories
by Lin Lin, Mengjie Jin, Zhiju Chen, Wenhao Men, Yefei Shi and Guoqing Wang
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2026, 15(3), 127; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030127 - 14 Mar 2026
Viewed by 234
Abstract
In smart campus construction, behavior pattern recognition and perturbation analysis serve as the cornerstones for achieving a transition from passive response to dynamic regulation, with intelligent perception and anomaly diagnosis methods based on campus traffic flow underpinning transportation system resilience. Traditional research methods [...] Read more.
In smart campus construction, behavior pattern recognition and perturbation analysis serve as the cornerstones for achieving a transition from passive response to dynamic regulation, with intelligent perception and anomaly diagnosis methods based on campus traffic flow underpinning transportation system resilience. Traditional research methods suffer from issues such as privacy risks, coarse modeling, and limitations from single data formats, labeling difficulties, and coverage gaps. This study proposes a refined semantic trajectory construction method that integrates multi-source data (e.g., mobile signaling data, maps and weather conditions), known as the Campus Transportation Semantic Trajectories Space (CTSTSpace) framework. It enables the precise identification of semantic origin–destination points from dynamic personnel trajectories, quantifies service performance through real-time road network mapping, and models multidimensional perturbations, achieving full campus coverage without complex labeling while ensuring robust privacy protection. Under clear weather conditions, the analysis demonstrates accurate recognition of travel behavior patterns (dwelling, aggregation, mobility, and congestion) that synchronize with class schedules, where vehicle speeds drop by over 50% during peak hours. Under rainy weather perturbations, it captured demand shifts (e.g., peak hour offsets of 30–60 min and a 6.8–9.2% reduction in long-distance dining trips) and speed reductions (52.15–73.74%). This approach provides critical insights for resilient smart campus traffic management. Full article
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25 pages, 4045 KB  
Article
Analysis of the Impact of Heterogeneous Platoon for Mixed Traffic Flow: Stability and Safety
by Dan Tu, Yunxia Wu, Le Li, Yangsheng Jiang, Yi Wang and Zhihong Yao
Systems 2026, 14(3), 304; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14030304 - 13 Mar 2026
Viewed by 133
Abstract
To investigate the impact mechanism of different platoon control strategies on mixed traffic flow, this paper evaluates the overall performance of different heterogeneous platoon control strategies in smoothing small traffic disturbances and improving traffic safety. First, this paper derives the stability conditions for [...] Read more.
To investigate the impact mechanism of different platoon control strategies on mixed traffic flow, this paper evaluates the overall performance of different heterogeneous platoon control strategies in smoothing small traffic disturbances and improving traffic safety. First, this paper derives the stability conditions for homogeneous and mixed traffic flow based on transfer function theory. Second, by simulating small disturbance experiments, the trend of speed under different traffic densities and the penetration rate of CAVs are analyzed. The characteristics of speed change coefficients under different platoon control strategies are comparatively analyzed based on the results in part 1. Finally, numerical simulation experiments were designed to analyze the safety performance of traffic flow under each strategy. The results show that (1) the combination of a variable time gap strategy with vehicle speed has the strongest ability to suppress disturbances. Among the combination spacing strategies, the combination of the variable time gap strategy with vehicle speed and the constant time gap strategy performs best in smoothing small disturbances. (2) At low penetration rates, incorporating CAVs may increase the instability of the traffic flow, while at high rates, CAVs effectively enhance the stability. These findings provide important guidance for selecting platoon control strategies in mixed traffic flow environments from the perspective of stability and safety. Full article
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20 pages, 14849 KB  
Article
MCViM-YOLO: Remote Sensing Vehicle Detection for Sustainable Intelligent Transportation
by Kairui Zhang, Ningning Zhu, Fuqing Zhao and Qiuyu Zhang
Sustainability 2026, 18(6), 2836; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062836 - 13 Mar 2026
Viewed by 134
Abstract
Vehicle detection is a core task in smart city perception management and an important technical support for sustainable urban development and intelligent transportation optimization. In high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing images, it faces challenges such as variable target scales, severe occlusion, [...] Read more.
Vehicle detection is a core task in smart city perception management and an important technical support for sustainable urban development and intelligent transportation optimization. In high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing images, it faces challenges such as variable target scales, severe occlusion, and difficulty in modeling long-range dependencies. To address these issues, this study proposes the MCViM-YOLO algorithm, which integrates the local perception advantage of convolution with the global modeling capability of the state space model (Mamba). Based on YOLOv12, the algorithm reconstructs the neck network: it introduces the Mix-Mamba module (parallel multi-scale convolution and selective state space model) to simultaneously capture local details and global spatial dependencies, adopts the dual-factor calibration fusion module (DCFM) to adaptively fuse heterogeneous features, and employs a dual-branch attention detection head (DADH) to optimize the prediction of difficult samples (e.g., occluded, small-scale vehicles). Experiments on the VEBAI dataset demonstrate that our proposed model achieves an mAP@0.5 of 92.391% and a recall rate of 86.070%, with a computational complexity of 10.41 GFLOPs. The results show that the proposed method effectively improves the accuracy and efficiency of vehicle detection in complex remote sensing scenarios, provides technical support for traffic flow monitoring, low-carbon urban planning, and other sustainable applications, and offers an innovative paradigm for the deep integration of CNN and state space models with both theoretical research value and engineering application prospects. Full article
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11 pages, 1933 KB  
Article
Study on the Mechanism of Urban Road Car-Following Safety Under Adverse Weather Conditions
by Zhipeng Gu, Xing Wang and Yufei Han
Vehicles 2026, 8(3), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/vehicles8030056 - 13 Mar 2026
Viewed by 137
Abstract
Car following is a common and important behavior in vehicle traffic flow, and the fluctuation of car-following behavior caused by the change in weather environment has also become one of the main causes of traffic accidents. To solve this problem, a driving scene [...] Read more.
Car following is a common and important behavior in vehicle traffic flow, and the fluctuation of car-following behavior caused by the change in weather environment has also become one of the main causes of traffic accidents. To solve this problem, a driving scene on urban roads was built through the driving simulation platform, and the driving simulator was used to carry out the vehicle-following test. The operating behavior parameters of the test drivers, such as steering wheel angle, headway, throttle opening, standard deviation of vehicle speed, acceleration, collision times, and so on, were collected and studied. The results showed that there were significant differences (p < 0.05) in indicators such as steering wheel angle, headway, acceleration, and standard deviation of speed under adverse weather conditions. The bad weather caused the line of sight to be blocked, which the driver compensated for by strengthening the trimming of the steering wheel angle, leading to the deterioration of the vehicle lateral stability. Moreover, safety studies have shown that the minimum driving interval occurred in foggy weather, while the maximum occurred in snowy weather. In addition, the standard deviation of vehicle speed and acceleration fluctuations have been reduced to ensure driving safety in adverse weather conditions. The driving experience of the drivers has a significant impact on the number of collisions, as novice drivers had a higher probability of collision. Full article
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23 pages, 4778 KB  
Article
A Dual-Attentional Gated Residual Framework for Robust Travel Time Prediction
by Jiajun Wu, Yongchuan Zhang, Yiduo Bai, Jun Xia and Yong He
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2026, 15(3), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030120 - 12 Mar 2026
Viewed by 194
Abstract
Travel time prediction (TTP) is a fundamental pillar of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, deploying highly parameterized deep learning models in data-scarce environments—referred to as the “cold-start” problem—remains a critical bottleneck, frequently leading to overfitting and severe error accumulation on ultra-long trajectories. To [...] Read more.
Travel time prediction (TTP) is a fundamental pillar of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). However, deploying highly parameterized deep learning models in data-scarce environments—referred to as the “cold-start” problem—remains a critical bottleneck, frequently leading to overfitting and severe error accumulation on ultra-long trajectories. To surmount these limitations, this study proposes the Dual-Attentional Gated Residual Network (DAGRN), a data-efficient forecasting framework driven by a novel topology-temporal coordination mechanism. Specifically, the framework introduces three integrated innovations: (1) transforming the primal network into a physics-aware Line Graph to explicitly filter out illegal movements and dynamically modulating topological propagation via Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM); (2) coupling a Bidirectional GRU backbone with a Multi-Head Attention module to simultaneously capture global trends and localized intersection delays; (3) employing a Gated Residual Fusion mechanism that preserves dimensional consistency and facilitates gradient flow in extensive sequences. To rigorously validate the model’s robustness, we conduct evaluations on a highly constrained, stratified dataset comprising merely 2000 trajectories. Experimental results demonstrate that DAGRN achieves state-of-the-art predictive precision with an RMSE of 415.485 s and an R2 of 0.848, significantly outperforming 12 advanced baseline models and reducing error by up to 13.8% against the strongest graph baseline. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm the absolute necessity of the Multi-Head Attention module, whose removal causes the most severe performance degradation (RMSE surging to 521.495 s). Ultimately, DAGRN presents a readily deployable solution for sparse-data ITS regimes, actively paving the way for future hybrid integrations with microscopic traffic simulations and evolutionary road network optimization algorithms. Full article
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22 pages, 2888 KB  
Article
Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization of GRU and LSTM Models for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction: A Case Study of Globe Roundabout in Saudi Arabia
by Sara Atef, Siraj Zahran and Ahmed Karam
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2026, 9(3), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/asi9030057 - 10 Mar 2026
Viewed by 295
Abstract
Accurate short-term traffic flow prediction is vital for effective signal control and sustainable urban mobility. Deep learning models, such as the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have demonstrated strong capability in modelling temporal traffic dynamics. However, the influence [...] Read more.
Accurate short-term traffic flow prediction is vital for effective signal control and sustainable urban mobility. Deep learning models, such as the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have demonstrated strong capability in modelling temporal traffic dynamics. However, the influence of their architectural and hyperparameter configurations remains underexplored. This study proposes a systematic methodology to assess the impact of hyperparameter optimization on GRU and LSTM models for predicting traffic flow at a signalized intersection. The methodology is evaluated using minute-level traffic data from the Globe Roundabout in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Bayesian optimization is applied to identify the best-performing hyperparameters. The results show that the optimized GRU model achieves a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0953, representing a 90.2% improvement compared to the baseline GRU (RMSE ≈ 0.969). Likewise, the optimized LSTM model attains an RMSE of 0.0960, corresponding to an 85.2% improvement relative to its baseline (RMSE ≈ 0.648). Similar gains are observed for the Mean Absolute Error. Visual analysis further shows that optimized models reduce smoothing bias, enhance the tracking of transient fluctuations, and produce stable, low-variance residuals. The findings demonstrate that hyperparameter optimization substantially improves predictive accuracy while preserving computational efficiency, enabling lightweight recurrent architectures to perform at a level comparable to more complex models. Full article
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