Search Results (11,951)

In this study, variational Bayesian inference (VBI) with Gaussian mixture models is applied to update models of nonlinear structures, and then, the calibrated model is employed to estimate the failure probability of structures using a subset simulation (SS) algorithm. To improve the computation efficiency of probabilistic nonlinear model updating, a Gaussian Process (GP) model is used to construct a surrogate likelihood function in Bayesian inference using an active learning algorithm, and then, Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are employed to approximate the unknown posterior probabilistic density functions (PDFs) of model parameters. The optimized hyperparameters of GMMs can be obtained by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO), and the stochastic gradient search method is used to solve this optimization problem. Based on the optimized hyperparameters, the posterior distributions of model parameters can be approximated using a combination of multiple Gaussian components. Subsequently, the SS algorithm is used to calculate the earthquake-induced failure probability of structures based on the calibrated nonlinear model. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, a numerical simulation of a two-span bridge structure subjected to seismic excitations was developed. Moreover, the proposed strategy is further applied to estimate the failure probability of a scaled monolithic column structure subjected to bi-directional earthquake excitations. Both numerical and experimental results indicate that the proposed method is feasible and effective for probabilistic nonlinear model updates, and the updated model can significantly enhance the accuracy of structural failure probability predictions. Full article

Under dynamic loading conditions, the output voltage of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) exhibits nonlinear degradation characterized by non-Gaussian fluctuations, abrupt changes, and long-range temporal dependence, which are difficult to model using conventional short-correlation or remaining useful life (RUL) prediction approaches. To capture both historical dependency and stochastic jump behavior, this study proposes a SHAP-driven mechanism–data fusion fractional stochastic degradation model based on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and fractional Poisson process (fPp) for degradation trend forecasting. A terminal voltage mechanism model considering activation, ohmic, and concentration polarization losses is first established, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis is employed to quantify the contributions of multi-source operational variables and enhance interpretability. The Hurst exponent is then used to verify long-range dependence and jump characteristics in the voltage sequence. Subsequently, fBm is integrated with a fPp to construct a unified stochastic degradation framework capable of jointly describing continuous decay and discrete abrupt variations, enabling multi-step probabilistic prediction with confidence intervals. Validation on the publicly available FCLAB FC1 and FC2 datasets shows that the proposed model achieves superior overall performance under both steady and dynamic conditions, with MAPE/RMSE/R² of 0.027%/0.00178/0.9895 and 0.056%/0.00259/0.9896, respectively, outperforming fBm, Wiener, WTD-RS-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM methods. The proposed approach provides accurate and interpretable degradation forecasting for PEMFC health management and maintenance decision support. Full article

Accurate prediction of hard disk drive (HDD) health states is critical for enabling proactive data maintenance and ensuring data reliability in large-scale data centers. However, conventional models often suffer from semantic entanglement among heterogeneous SMART attributes and from the masking of incipient failure signatures by stochastic noise. To address these challenges, we propose SDGR-Net, a spatiotemporally decoupled learning framework designed to model the complex degradation dynamics of HDDs. SDGR-Net introduces three synergistic innovations: (1) a spatiotemporally decoupled dual-branch encoder that disentangles longitudinal temporal evolution from cross-variable correlations via parameter-isolated branches, thereby reducing representational interference; (2) a parsimonious dual-view temporal extraction mechanism that captures early-stage anomalies through forward–reverse sequence concatenation, enabling high-fidelity preservation of non-stationary pre-failure patterns; and (3) a cross-branch dynamic gated residual fusion module that functions as an adaptive information bottleneck to emphasize failure-critical features while suppressing redundant noise. Extensive experiments conducted on three heterogeneous HDD datasets, ST4000DM000, HUH721212ALN604, and MG07ACA14TA, demonstrate that SDGR-Net consistently outperforms six state-of-the-art baselines. In particular, SDGR-Net achieves a peak fault detection rate (FDR) of 0.9898 and a 69.6% relative reduction in false alarm rate (FAR) under high-reliability operating conditions. These results, corroborated by comprehensive ablation studies, indicate that SDGR-Net effectively balances detection sensitivity and operational robustness, offering a practical solution for intelligent HDD health monitoring. Full article

Ensuring uninterrupted access to essential medicines in public healthcare systems is a persistent challenge with clinical, economic, and environmental implications. Oncology services are particularly vulnerable to stockouts, which compromise therapeutic continuity and increase reliance on urgent procurement with high carbon and waste footprints. This study proposes a risk-informed, data-driven framework for pharmaceutical inventory governance in a high-complexity public oncology hospital in Chile, aligning with sustainability goals and green supply chain principles. Using operational data from 2023–2024, we integrate descriptive analytics, ABC–XYZ segmentation, and a continuous-review (s, Q) policy extended through a Logistic Risk Index (LRI) that consolidates demand variability, supply performance, and clinical-economic criticality. Empirical analysis reveals strong expenditure concentration in AX/AY segments and significant misalignment between institutional and analytically derived parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation N = 1000 runs per scenario) compares baseline, adjusted, and fully risk-informed policies under stochastic demand and lead-time conditions. Results show that the risk-informed configuration reduces stockout exposure by up to 46%, improves fill rates (93.1% → 96.4%), and shortens replenishment delays, while maintaining total logistic cost stability. Critically, urgent orders decrease from 27.4 to 14.8 per year, avoiding an estimated 630 kg CO₂ emissions and 25 kg of packaging waste annually. These findings demonstrate that resilience, efficiency, and sustainability are not competing objectives but can be jointly achieved through integrated analytics and governance. The proposed approach offers a scalable blueprint for public health systems seeking to transition from reactive inventory management toward anticipatory, transparent, and sustainability-oriented decision-making, contributing to SDG 3 (health and well-being) and SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production). Full article

Latitudinal gradients are widely recognized as a key macro-environmental driver shaping microbial biogeographic patterns; however, the spatial organization of sediment archaeal communities in estuarine ecosystems and the mechanisms underlying their assembly remain insufficiently understood. This study is based on sediment samples collected from three representative estuarine regions spanning distinct latitudes along the Chinese coastline—the North China Sea (NCS), East China Sea (ECS), and South China Sea (SCS). Based on 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing, combined with null-model inference and molecular ecological network (MEN) analyses, we characterized latitudinal patterns in archaeal community distributions, assembly processes, and cross-regional interaction architectures. The results showed that archaeal communities exhibited obvious spatial segregation across three regions, with both community richness and network complexity increasing significantly toward lower latitudes. Nitrate (NO₃⁻), ferric iron (Fe³⁺), and dissolved oxygen (DO) were identified as key environmental factors governing archaeal community structure. Notably, archaeal community assembly processes exhibited a clear latitudinal gradient: deterministic processes, particularly environmental filtering, were more obvious at lower latitudes, whereas the contributions of stochastic processes—including dispersal limitation and ecological drift—increased markedly at higher latitudes. A MEN analysis further revealed that archaeal networks at lower latitudes exhibited higher connectivity, modularity, and stability, suggesting that interspecific interactions may enhance ecosystem resistance to environmental disturbance under more stable environmental conditions. Overall, this study demonstrates that macro-environmental gradients jointly shape archaeal biogeographic patterns via multiple pathways, including modulation of environmental filtering, dispersal dynamics, and cross-regional interactions. These findings deepened our understanding of the stable mechanisms governing the diversity and biogeographical distribution of archaea in estuarine systems. Full article

Viral and fungal diseases of greenhouse strawberries lead to significant crop losses, while traditional uniform spraying schemes do not account for the actual distribution of infection foci or changes in the microclimate. This paper proposes an integrated system for greenhouse farms that combines a stochastic SIRS model of the epidemic process with a microclimate-dependent infection coefficient β_eff(t), a computer vision module based on a lightweight YOLOv10n detector, and a mobile sprayer robot. For three sets of parameters corresponding to moderate infection, outbreak, and suppression scenarios, ensemble simulations are performed (100 realizations per scenario). The results show that the maximum number of infected plants reaches approximately 690 out of 1000 in the outbreak scenario and only about 28 out of 1000 in the suppression scenario, reflecting the effect of timely microclimate correction and local spraying. The YOLOv10n detector is used as a sensor to determine the proportion of affected plants I(0)/N and provides automatic formation of the initial conditions of the population model. The resulting forecasts then serve as the basis for selecting one of three operating modes for the spraying robot (observation, microclimate correction, local treatment). Unlike existing works that consider disease detection, epidemiological models, or robotic spraying separately, this paper proposes a unified closed-loop scheme of “computer vision—stochastic model—mobile robot,” linking detection quality with epidemic process forecasting and treatment strategy. In this study, the feasibility of the proposed system was examined through numerical simulations, detector-level performance evaluation, and offline image-based integrated validation of the detector-to-decision workflow. Full closed-loop experiments in a real greenhouse environment are planned for future work. Full article

This paper presents a novel dual-module Permanent Magnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM) featuring an unequal tooth-shoe topology, alongside a highly efficient surrogate-assisted framework to maximize average thrust and minimize thrust ripple. To overcome the computational bottleneck of expensive Finite Element Analysis (FEA), we propose a Constraint-Preserving Maximin Latin Hypercube Design (CP-MmLHD) coupled with an ARD-Kriging model and the Expected Hypervolume Improvement (EHVI) criterion. This closed-loop framework expertly handles strict geometric constraints and anisotropic parameter sensitivities. Within a strict budget of only 150 FEA evaluations, the framework successfully identifies a high-quality Pareto front. Notably, a representative optimal design reduces thrust ripple by over 80% without compromising average thrust. Furthermore, comparative experiments demonstrate superior computational efficiency over conventional algorithms, while multi-run statistical benchmarking and stochastic Monte Carlo analysis rigorously confirm the framework’s algorithmic robustness and manufacturing reliability. Full article

In this paper, we propose a novel method which utilizes samples of measured product quality characteristics to efficiently estimate the probabilities of those quality characteristics being within the desired specifications and, consequently, the process yield. Specifically, when dealing with 1D Gaussian distributions, we formally prove that the proposed yield estimator asymptotically gives a lower Mean Squared Error compared to the best unbiased estimator. In order to enable maximization of yield, this novel estimator is incorporated into the framework of Bayesian Optimization which iteratively seeks controllable tool parameters under which the outgoing product yield is maximized. The newly proposed yield maximization method is demonstrated in an application involving high-fidelity simulations of a reactive ion etch chamber, a tool component commonly used in semiconductor manufacturing. The aim of these simulations was to rapidly and reliably determine tool parameters that maximize the probability of delivering desired plasma density characteristics under stochastic variations in chamber conditions. The novel yield estimation and optimization methods show superiority when the number of experimental observations is limited and the distributions of outgoing product characteristics can be approximated well by a Gaussian distribution. Full article

Baihua Reservoir, a typical large waterbody in the karst region of southwestern China and an essential drinking water source, is characterized by a high carbonate buffering capacity that profoundly shapes the structure and function of its phytoplankton community. This study systematically elucidates the multi-dimensional driving mechanisms underlying seasonal phytoplankton community assembly in karst reservoirs by integrating multiple analytical models—including the Neutral Community Model, β-diversity decomposition, co-occurrence network analysis, XGBoost-SHAP machine learning, and Partial Least Squares Path Modeling—based on monthly sampling at five sites from 2020 to 2024. The results revealed that: (1) Stochastic processes dominated community assembly across all four seasons, while deterministic processes played a crucial role in local species turnover. (2) The co-occurrence network structure showed significant seasonal dynamics, with the composition of keystone species adaptively shifting in response to changing environmental conditions. (3) The key environmental factors influencing the phytoplankton community exhibited clear seasonal patterns, primarily pH, NH₃-N, and COD_Mn in spring; water temperature, COD_Mn, and NH₃-N in summer; TN, TP, and pH in autumn; and pH, water temperature, and DO in winter. To support the sustainable management of karst reservoirs, we propose seasonally differentiated strategies derived from our phytoplankton community analysis: target COD_Mn reduction in spring and summer, focus on TN and TP load control in autumn, prioritize water column stability in winter, and maintain hydrological connectivity and pH monitoring year-round. This approach enhances phytoplankton community stability, safeguards drinking water safety, and provides a targeted management model for similar reservoir ecosystems globally. Full article

Multi-objective evolutionary optimization faces significant challenges due to guidance mismatch under complex Pareto-front geometries. This paper proposes a dynamic self-organizing map-assisted evolutionary algorithm (D-SOMA), a manifold-aware framework that harmonizes knowledge-informed priors with unsupervised objective-space characterization. Specifically, a knowledge-informed guided resampling strategy is formulated to bridge stochastic initialization and targeted exploitation. By distilling spatial distribution priors from the decision-variable boundaries of early-stage elite solutions, it establishes a high-quality starting population biased towards promising regions. To capture the intrinsic geometry of the evolving population, a self-organizing map (SOM)-based adaptive subregion characterization strategy leverages the topological preservation of self-organizing maps to extract latent modeling parameters. This strategy adaptively determines subregion centers and influence radii, enabling a data-driven partitioning that respects the underlying manifold structure. Furthermore, a density-driven phase-responsive scale adjustment strategy is introduced. By synthesizing spatial density feedback and temporal evolutionary trajectories, it dynamically modulates the characterization granularity K, thereby maintaining a rigorous balance between geometric modeling fidelity and computational overhead. Extensive experiments on 50 benchmark problems from the DTLZ, WFG, MaF and RWMOP suites demonstrate that D-SOMA is statistically superior to seven state-of-the-art algorithms, exhibiting robust convergence and superior diversity across diverse problem landscapes. Full article

Cosmological filaments, galaxy clusters, and galaxies are magnetized reservoirs of cosmic rays (CRs). The exchange of CRs across these structures is usually modeled assuming that they remain charged and magnetically confined. At high energies, hadronic interactions can convert CR protons to neutrons. This physics is routinely included in air-shower and ultra-high-energy (UHE) CR propagation Monte Carlo simulations used for composition studies but is rarely treated explicitly in propagation models of CR transport and exchange between magnetized reservoirs. CR neutrons are not affected by magnetic fields and can propagate ballistically over kpc-Mpc distances before decaying back into protons, with relativistic time dilation extending their effective decay length. We show how such charged–neutral switching modifies CR confinement and escape in four representative environments: a Milky Way-like galaxy, a starburst galaxy, a galaxy cluster, and a cosmological filament. By solving the transport of a confined CR proton population in each structure using a diffusion/streaming propagation approach with hadronic pp and p$\gamma$ interactions, and treating neutron production and decay as a stochastic Poisson “jump” process, we find that neutron-mediated steps can allow additional CR escape from large-scale cosmological structures at energies where charged-particle transport alone would predict strong CR confinement and attenuation in ambient radiation fields. These effects imply a qualitative shift in how ultra-high-energy CRs are transferred from embedded sources into filaments and voids once intermediate neutron propagation is considered, with consequences for the partitioning of CRs across the large-scale structure of the Universe. Full article

Systemic risk in banking systems arises from losses transmitted through networks of contractual exposures. Yet, most widely used measures rely on market-implied volatility and equity prices rather than structural balance sheet fragilities. This paper develops a flow network framework that models systemic risk as a capacity-constrained loss-diffusion process governed by flow conservation, contractual seniority, and interbank topology. Using regulatory balance sheet data for four major U.S. banks across six quarters of the 2007–2008 financial crisis, we simulate millions of unit-consistent cascade scenarios to characterize the distribution of bank failures and aggregate losses. Despite severe macro-financial stress, the system remains in a subcritical contagion regime, exhibiting frequent single-bank failures, virtually no multi-bank cascades, and quasi-stationary aggregate losses concentrated around USD 420–430B.We extend the model to a stochastic setting in which the initial shock magnitude is randomized while propagation mechanics remain deterministic. The resulting loss distribution remains tightly concentrated and scales approximately linearly with shock size, suggesting that uncertainty in shock realizations does not induce nonlinear cascade amplification. Applying an efficient network benchmark, we estimate that 10–23% of expected systemic loss is attributable to suboptimal network architecture, implying potential gains from structural policy intervention. A comparison with SRISK reveals early divergence and convergence only at peak stress, highlighting the complementary roles of structural and market-based systemic risk measures. Finally, a graph neural network trained on synthetic flow network data fails to reproduce threshold-driven cascade dynamics, underscoring the importance of considering network structures vis-à-vis data-driven approaches. Full article

Cascade dams fragment river habitats, but how seasonal hydrology modulates the biogeography and assembly of fish gut microbiota remains unclear. We surveyed gut bacterial communities of the omnivorous fish Saurogobio punctatus across 10 reaches separated by cascade dams in the Qijiang River during the wet (summer) and dry (winter) seasons using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Sampling was synchronized among reaches to minimize temporal variability. Winter exhibited stronger differentiation among reaches and a steeper distance–decay pattern, and reach-scale environmental heterogeneity (especially dissolved inorganic nitrogen) was more stable under weak hydrodynamics. Null model analyses showed that stochastic processes dominated in summer, with dispersal-related processes and drift being prominent under high connectivity, whereas deterministic assembly increased in winter and was mainly associated with homogeneous selection. Compositionality-aware differential abundance analysis (ANCOM-BC2) identified 409 genera with a significant seasonal differential abundance after adjusting for reach (FDR q < 0.05). Random forest classification, used as a complementary prediction-oriented feature-ranking analysis, indicated higher reach discriminability in winter, with Nitrospirota ranking among the top features. PLS-PM indicated that α-diversity had the strongest direct association with β-diversity in the specified model, whereas spatial and environmental effects were linked to β-diversity mainly through indirect, α-diversity-mediated pathways. Biologically, α-diversity may reflect an integrative summary of the within-gut taxon pool shaped by host filtering and environmentally derived inputs (e.g., diet- and habitat-associated sources), which can influence the magnitude of between-reach compositional turnover. Together, these results show that seasonal hydrological regimes tune spatial turnover and assembly of fish gut microbiota in cascade-regulated rivers. Full article

Accurate identification of slope failure mechanisms under shallow foundations is essential for reliable risk assessment and reinforcement design. However, existing studies often neglect the spatial variability of soil properties and the influence of footing shape. This study develops a non-intrusive stochastic finite difference framework integrating random field theory, Monte Carlo simulation, and a Gaussian mixture model to automatically characterize three-dimensional slope failure domains under rectangular footing loads. Results show that slope failure mechanisms are primarily governed by the footing aspect ratio and the scale of fluctuation in soil strength. Square footings mainly induce shallow slope face failure, whereas rectangular footings significantly increase the probability of deep toe failure as the scale of fluctuation increases. Stochastic analyses generally yield larger mean failure volumes than deterministic analyses. Risk assessment further indicates that risk levels are primarily controlled by the absolute failure volume at low safety factors, whereas failure variability becomes increasingly influential at higher safety factors. Full article

The paper investigates the applicability of time series models for processing data obtained from a customized crack-propagation sensor. Because the sensor records a variable and noise-affected waveform, the study focuses on models capable of forecasting signals composed of both trend and stochastic components. Adaptive, analytical, and autoregressive approaches were examined, with particular attention to their suitability for short, non-stationary sequences typical of fatigue-related measurements. Based on the statistical characteristics of the sensor output during crack growth, the ARIMA model was selected for further analysis and algorithm development. The forecasting performance of ARIMA was evaluated for different parameter configurations by comparing the range and variability of the base and predicted data. Initial tests using first-order parameters produced unsatisfactory results, with high variance observed in both raw and modeled signals. Therefore, model parameters were optimized using the aicbic function, and the analyses were repeated. For the selected datasets, variance reduction by 3–4 orders of magnitude was achieved, demonstrating a substantial improvement in prediction stability. The presented results confirm that the proposed methodology is effective for processing complex sensor signals and highlight the broader significance of applying statistically grounded time series models in structural health monitoring. The study introduces an innovative framework for evaluating fatigue-related sensor data and establishes a reliable baseline for future predictive methods. Full article