Search Results (688)

Flooding associated with rising inland lake levels represents a distinct and understudied hazard compared to conventional river or coastal flooding. Unlike riverine floods, lake inundation develops gradually and persists over extended periods, yet integrated flood risk assessments specifically addressing this phenomenon remain scarce. This study uses Lake Baringo in Kenya’s Rift Valley as a case study, a lake that has experienced exceptional water level rises of nearly 10 m since 2010, to assess flood risk through the integration of scenario-based flood hazard modelling, spatial exposure assessment, and household vulnerability analysis. Three lake level scenarios were developed, spanning from maximum observed conditions to a worst-case threshold at the lake’s sill point. Results show that under the worst-case scenario, the lake area could expand by approximately 64%, potentially exposing nearly 18,000 people and 156 km of road infrastructure. A Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) ranging from 0.58 to 0.73 indicated consistently high socioeconomic vulnerability across all shoreline communities, with vulnerability accounting for 42–53% of overall flood risk across scenarios. Flood risk was highest along the flat southern shoreline, where topography amplifies lateral inundation extent. The findings highlight the importance of integrating lake level dynamics into spatial planning and flood risk management, and the need for improved monitoring, livelihood diversification, and institutional coordination in semi-arid inland lake regions facing increasing hydro-climatic variability. Full article

Against China’s dual-carbon strategy and watershed ecological high-quality development initiatives, exploring land-use-driven carbon storage variations is crucial for watershed spatial governance, ecological restoration and carbon sink improvement. As the Yellow River’s largest tributary, the Weihe River Basin straddles the ecotone of arid–semiarid Northwest China and the eastern monsoon region, with fragile ecosystems, intense human activities and dramatic land-use evolution. Clarifying its spatiotemporal carbon dynamics and nonlinear factor response patterns can support low-carbon ecological regulation and coordinated watershed sustainability. This study integrates PLUS and InVEST models to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of land use and carbon storage across 2000–2020 land use data. Four development scenarios are established to predict 2030 carbon storage spatial heterogeneity, and an interpretable XGBoost-SHAP framework was employed to disentangle the nonlinear responses of carbon storage to natural and socioeconomic drivers. The results show that basin carbon storage exhibited an overall increasing trend, with a net increase of 452.29 × 10⁴ t over the 2 decades. Spatially, high-carbon areas presented patchy aggregation in the northeast, sporadic distribution in the west and zonal expansion in the south–central basin, while low-carbon areas were concentrated in the downstream Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration. Land-use transitions represented a major source of regional carbon variability, with forest expansion driven by the Grain-for-Green Program generating the largest carbon sequestration increments. The 2030 scenario simulations revealed elevated carbon storage under natural development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios, with the ecological protection scenario yielding the most prominent carbon gain. Conversely, unconstrained economic expansion coincided with prominent carbon storage declines, which implies that targeted ecological conservation and restoration could help alleviate carbon depletion across the watershed. NDVI, slope, and population density are the primary determinants of carbon storage, exhibiting typical staged nonlinear influencing effects. This study provides reliable scientific references for refined ecological restoration, spatial optimization, and carbon sink enhancement in ecologically fragile river basins. Full article

Asymmetric diurnal warming is a salient feature of global climate change, and its reshaping of hydrological and carbon processes in terrestrial ecosystems has attracted increasing attention. Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity to evapotranspiration, serves as a key indicator coupling vegetation water consumption with carbon sequestration; however, how daytime and nighttime warming directly and indirectly drive divergent WUE responses through soil moisture and evapotranspiration pathways—and whether these responses are governed by soil-moisture thresholds—remains insufficiently explored in arid grasslands. In this study, the arid and semi-arid grasslands of northern Xinjiang were selected as the study area, and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of diurnal land surface temperature, evapotranspiration components, soil moisture, and WUE during the growing season was systematically analyzed to identify the key hydrological factors and driving pathways through which diurnal warming regulates WUE. The results showed that: (1) nighttime warming in the grasslands of northern Xinjiang was significantly stronger than daytime warming during the study period, with significant nighttime warming (p < 0.05) detected over 86.31% of the area, far exceeding the 16.62% observed for daytime warming, and the diurnal temperature range narrowing continuously at a rate of 0.02 °C per year; (2) over the same period, WUE exhibited an overall non-significant declining trend with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with areas of significant increase concentrated in the Junggar Basin, whereas areas of significant decrease were clustered on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, reflecting divergent evapotranspiration and productivity responses under contrasting moisture regimes; (3) LAI emerged as the most critical independent factor regulating WUE variation, with daytime warming exerting a significant negative effect on WUE primarily by depleting soil moisture, suppressing LAI, and intensifying vapor pressure deficit-driven evapotranspiration stress, whereas nighttime warming across the broader region exerted a positive compensatory effect by promoting LAI growth and sustaining soil moisture availability; (4) these pathway reversals are governed by a soil-moisture threshold: in the arid basin where WUE increased significantly, the effects of nighttime warming on soil moisture and LAI shifted from promotive to inhibitory, and the direct effect of daytime warming likewise reversed from positive to negative, revealing that the apparent WUE increase reflects a passive hydrological response in which transpiration is preferentially suppressed under severe water deficit rather than an improvement in ecosystem function. These findings demonstrate that diurnal warming effects on grassland water use exhibit pronounced soil-moisture threshold dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Our study highlights that substituting daily mean temperature for separate daytime and nighttime temperatures masks the opposing effects of asymmetric warming on coupled water consumption and carbon processes, and underestimates the sensitivity of arid grassland hydrological cycles to climate warming. This study provides a new mechanistic basis for optimizing parameters in carbon–water cycle models and for differentiated water resource management in arid grassland regions. Full article

Terrestrial water storage in semi-arid basins is increasingly affected by the combined pressures of climate variability, land use change and intensive human activities. However, how landscape composition and configuration interact with climatic forcing to shape basin-scale terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) remains insufficiently understood, particularly in rapidly urbanising tributary basins of the Yellow River. This study integrates GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived TWSA, meteorological observations and multi-period land use data to examine the coupled relationships among climate variability, landscape patterns and water storage in the human-dominated Yiluo River Basin. The results show that basin-averaged TWSA experienced a significant long-term decline during the GRACE/GRACE-FO period (−4.47 mm yr⁻¹), with a statistically detectable transition around 2012 and stronger depletion in the northern and eastern parts of the basin. Precipitation exhibited a cumulative and delayed relationship with TWSA, with the strongest raw association occurring under a six-month accumulation and one-month lag (Pearson’s r = 0.44, p < 0.001, n = 134). After removing the seasonal cycle, the relationship remained significant but weaker (r = 0.30, p = 0.001, n = 129), indicating that precipitation explains part, but not all, of the interannual variability in water storage. Landscape composition showed stronger associations with TWSA than landscape configuration. Construction land was negatively associated with water storage, whereas cultivated land and grassland showed positive associations, suggesting that impervious surface expansion and the loss of permeable land may weaken the basin’s water retention capacity. These findings indicate that water storage change in the Yiluo River Basin is shaped by both climatic forcing and human-induced land surface transformation. Basin management should therefore prioritise the control of urban impervious surface expansion, the protection of permeable agricultural and ecological land, and the integration of land use planning with adaptive water resource regulation. Full article

In this study, changes in the surface area of Lake Burdur during the 2015–2025 period and the spatial direction of the associated shrinkage were examined using Sentinel-2 Level-2A satellite images. A total of 111 satellite images, each representing a monthly period, were analyzed using a fixed study window and a lake vicinity mask; a three-cluster unsupervised K-means segmentation method was applied to separate the water surface from bare/drained areas and vegetation classes. The resulting binary water masks were used to convert the lake surface area to km² on a pixel-by-pixel basis, and the geometric center of the lake mass was calculated for each observation date. The unique aspect of this study is that it evaluates lake shrinkage not only through a decrease in surface area but also as a directional spatial process via the movement of the centroid center. In this context, the cumulative displacement was decomposed into X/West and Y/South components using the initial centroid point as a reference; OLS-based linear and logarithmic trend models were established for both directions. Model performances were compared using a 15-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation approach with R², adjusted R², NSE, KGE, MAE, MAPE, MSE, and RMSE metrics; additionally, the statistical significance of model differences was assessed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The findings indicate that the logarithmic model yields more balanced and reliable results in the X/West direction, while the linear model does so in the Y/South direction. Based on this model structure, spatial projections were generated for the 2026–2035 period, and it was observed that the projection bands remained stable despite Monte Carlo-based coefficient uncertainty. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that lake drawdowns in semi-arid closed basins can be monitored in a more interpretable and statistically robust manner using Sentinel-2-based segmentation, centroid kinematics, and cross-validated trend modeling. Full article

Lacustrine shales are globally important both as archives of paleoenvironmental change and as unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs. The first Member of the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin, NE China, represents a prominent interval of high-quality petroleum source rocks. Despite their significance, the factors governing organic matter accumulation and pore evolution in these lacustrine deposits remain inadequately constrained, especially with respect to the interplay between paleoenvironmental conditions and porosity development. This research explores the geochemical, mineralogical, and pore structure features of lacustrine shales and mudstones from this formation. The samples analyzed display TOC contents between 0.62 and 3.13 wt%, with Rock-Eval pyrolysis results (T_max avg. 439 °C) reflecting thermal maturity spanning the early to peak oil window. Mineralogically, the samples are dominated by quartz (avg. 28 wt%) and clay minerals (avg. 51 wt%), with feldspar as a minor component (avg. 14 wt%). Geochemical proxies suggest deposition under arid to semi-arid climatic conditions, characterized by minimal chemical weathering, elevated paleo-salinity (Sr/Ba avg. 0.89; 100 × Mg/Al avg. 14.94), and predominantly suboxic to oxic bottom-water conditions (U/Th avg. 0.38; Ni/Co avg. 1.77). Organic matter enrichment is primarily driven by high paleoproductivity (Cu/Al avg. 3.77 × 10⁻⁴) and stratified water columns, while detrital input (Zr/Al ratio) is unfavorable for organic matter accumulation. Pore structure analysis reveals micropore volumes averaging 0.0053 cm³/g and meso- and macropore volumes averaging 0.0233 cm³/g. The contents of quartz and clay minerals exhibit no substantial correlation with pore volume, likely due to secondary quartz overgrowth and mechanical compaction. Similarly, the weak negative correlation between TOC and pore volume is attributed to the poorly developed pore networks within kerogen. This study provides new insights into the depositional and diagenetic controls on organic matter accumulation and pore development in the lacustrine Qingshankou Formation, with implications for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and unconventional hydrocarbon exploration in analogous lacustrine basins worldwide. Full article

Climate warming is altering plant range limits in drylands, where water limitation, soil salinity, and thermal extremes jointly constrain species niches. Yet it remains unclear whether dryland legumes with contrasting life forms respond differently to future climates, a problem that remains poorly resolved. We used ENMeval-optimized MaxEnt models to estimate the current and future potential distributions of three ecologically important legumes in arid Xinjiang: Alhagi camelorum, a perennial semi-shrub; Glycyrrhiza inflata, a perennial herb; and Trigonella arcuata, an annual herb. Models were evaluated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 and showed high discriminatory performance with test AUC values of 0.910–0.947. Under the current climate, G. inflata formed a concentrated core in the Tarim Basin oases, T. arcuata showed a fragmented northern-biased distribution, and A. camelorum was widely dispersed across both northern and southern Xinjiang. The strongest predictors differed among species: minimum temperature of the coldest month for G. inflata (45.9% contribution), precipitation seasonality for T. arcuata 76.8%, and NDVI for A. camelorum 34.0%. Bootstrap-based niche analyses further quantified these differences: A. camelorum and G. inflata had similar niche breadths, Levins’ B2 = 0.329 and 0.315, respectively, whereas T. arcuata had the narrowest niche breadth, B2 = 0.225; 95% CI: 0.162–0.241. Pairwise niche overlap was generally low, particularly between G. inflata and T. arcuata (Schoener’s D = 0.019; Hellinger’s I = 0.038). Projections based on BCC-CSM2-MR indicated species-specific and scenario-dependent suitability shifts across both future periods. G. inflata showed the largest projected net gains across periods and scenarios; A. camelorum showed moderate but consistently positive gains, whereas T. arcuata showed weaker and more uncertain responses, including significant net losses under SSP1-2.6. These asymmetric trajectories suggest species-specific responses among the three legumes and provide hypotheses for how life-form-related ecological strategies may shape dryland habitat shifts. Given this limited replication, these trajectories should be treated as species-specific hypotheses rather than evidence for life-form effects. Future SDM assessments should broaden taxonomic sampling and incorporate key functional traits to improve forecasts of dryland community reassembly and conservation planning. Full article

Terrestrial carbonates provide important archives for reconstructing paleoenvironmental, paleoclimatic and hydrogeological conditions in semi-arid to arid continental basins. This study investigates the origin, mineralogical characteristics and geochemical properties of calcrete and dolocrete occurrences developed along the Konya Fault Zone within the Konya Closed Basin (Central Türkiye). Field observations, petrography, XRD, SEM–EDS, major and trace element geochemistry, REE analyses, stable isotopes (δ¹³C–δ¹⁸O), geostatistical methods and ESR dating were employed. The results reveal two distinct terrestrial carbonate systems. Dolocretes occur within Quaternary alluvial fan deposits developed on ultramafic–ophiolitic rocks, whereas calcretes developed pedogenically within Quaternary alluvial fan deposits overlying carbonate bedrock. Calcite, dolomite, quartz, palygorskite and smectitic clay minerals constitute the principal mineral phases. Rhizoliths, tubular structures, nodules, microbial filaments and laminated carbonate horizons indicate pedogenic carbonate accumulation. The association of palygorskite with dolomite and smectitic clay minerals suggests alkaline, Mg-rich pore waters under semi-arid conditions. Elevated Sr concentrations indicate prolonged groundwater–carbonate interaction, whereas high Ni and Co contents in the dolocretes reflect the influence of ultramafic source rocks. REE distributions are characterized by LREE enrichment, weak Eu anomalies and locally developed negative Ce anomalies, indicating pedogenic fractionation under oxidizing meteoric conditions. Stable isotope data indicate precipitation from meteoric waters influenced by soil-derived CO₂ under semi-arid climatic conditions dominated by C3 vegetation. ESR ages ranging from approximately 390–217 ka indicate carbonate formation during the Middle Pleistocene (MIS 11–MIS 7). Integrated mineralogical, geochemical, isotopic and chronological evidence indicates that the Konya terrestrial carbonates formed predominantly through pedogenic processes within meteoric vadose-zone conditions controlled by bedrock lithology (carbonate and ultramafic rocks), groundwater circulation and Quaternary climatic variability. These deposits represent important archives of Middle Pleistocene paleoenvironmental and paleohydrological evolution in Central Anatolia. Full article

Tugai forests are intrazonal riparian ecosystems formed along river valleys in arid and semi-arid regions and characterized by high biodiversity and complex vegetation structure. The aim of this study was to assess the phytocenological structure, species composition, and ecological characteristics of tugai forests distributed within the Kura River basin and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan. The study was conducted using classical geobotanical and phytocenological methods based on the Braun—Blanquet approach. The results revealed clear ecological differentiation among tugai forest formations depending on hydrological regime, groundwater conditions, and soil salinity. High species diversity and a multi-layered vegetation structure were identified within the Populeta—Salicetum—Ulmosum, Ulmeta, Populeta, Saliceta—Alnueta—Populeta, and Tamariceta formation groups, which develop mainly on alluvial soils under conditions of elevated moisture. In the Nakhchivan region, tugai forests adapted to more arid environments are distributed mainly along the Araz River and are dominated by Tamarix ramosissima, Populus euphratica, Populus nigra, and Salix species. Anthropogenic impacts, including grazing, deforestation, and hydrological alterations, were identified as major factors contributing to ecosystem degradation and reduction in vegetation cover. The obtained results confirm the high ecological and conservation significance of tugai forests and emphasize the necessity of their protection, restoration, and sustainable management. Full article

The middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin are ecologically fragile and face increasing tension between ecological restoration and socioeconomic development. This study developed an integrated risk-service framework to assess spatiotemporal ecological security, identify dominant drivers, and support zoning-based management. A Comprehensive Ecological Security Index combining landscape ecological risk with four InVEST-derived ecosystem services showed a steady improvement from 2000 to 2025, especially after 2010. Higher ecological security was mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern mountainous areas, whereas lower values persisted in the central plains and northern semi-arid areas. The index showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I = 0.413–0.474, p < 0.001). Forest coverage was the strongest driver (q = 0.504), with a threshold effect at 40–50% coverage. ${\mathrm{P}\mathrm{M}}_{2.5}$ concentration and population density had negative effects, and most driver interactions showed nonlinear enhancement. Five ecological security zones were identified for differentiated management. The proposed framework links ecological risk, ecosystem service capacity, interpretable machine learning, and zoning-based governance. It provides a transferable approach for ecological security assessment and spatial management in the Middle Yellow River Basin and comparable dryland watersheds. Full article

Clarifying the dynamic changes in vegetation cover and the driving mechanisms under the combined influence of the natural environment and human activities is a crucial foundation for understanding the evolutionary processes of ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions and for improving the effectiveness of ecological restoration. Taking the Kuye River Basin, a typical resource exploitation zone in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, as the research area, this study retrieved 30 m resolution annual maximum NDVI datasets from 1986 to 2020 to calculate the Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC). Utilizing methods such as Theil–Sen slope analysis, Mann–Kendall significance test, Hurst exponent, stability analysis, geographical detector, and sensitivity index, this study systematically revealed the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation change, future evolution trends, and the response mechanisms of FVC dynamics to multiple factors including climate, topography, and land use. The results indicated that from 1986 to 2020, FVC in the study area exhibited an overall increasing trend (0.0105 a⁻¹), with the average FVC rising from 0.21 to 0.61. Regions with very low and low vegetation coverage continued to decrease, while areas with high and very high vegetation coverage showed significant increases, particularly in the very high vegetation coverage category, which experienced the largest growth (CV = 179.32%). The regions with moderate vegetation coverage demonstrated the highest stability (CV = 48.42%). Analysis of the driving mechanisms revealed that precipitation and land use types were the primary factors influencing changes in FVC, with land use demonstrating a more stable explanatory power (CV = 3.63%). Furthermore, the interaction between these two factors significantly enhanced the explanatory power related to vegetation changes. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the increase in forest and grassland effectively mitigated the negative impact of cropland on moderate to high coverage areas; industrial and mining land had a notable impact on very low coverage areas. It can be inferred that the Grain for Green program and the expansion of industrial and mining lands might generate differentiated impacts across diverse vegetation coverage classes. Future projections indicate that 91.19% of the region exhibits potential for FVC improvement in the future. However, a risk of sustained vegetation degradation exists in densely populated areas and regions with concentrated industrial and mining land. The study demonstrates that under the combined influences of climate change and land use adjustments, optimizing land use structures and coordinating ecological restoration with resource development are critical approaches to enhancing the stability of ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions, as well as promoting sustainable regional ecological development. Full article

Reconstructing long-term continuous precipitation series is essential for characterising rainfall variability, detecting hydroclimatic trends, and supporting water resource management in semi-arid Mediterranean regions. This study analyses rainfall variability in the Sebou watershed (northern Morocco, ~40,000 km²) over 1980–2024, using eleven stations spanning an altitudinal gradient from 5 m (Kénitra) to 1478 m (Aït Khebbach). To reconstruct continuous monthly series over 44 hydrological years, ERA5 reanalyses were bias-corrected using seasonal Quantile Mapping (QM) versus station data, available only until 2001. Raw ERA5 data show a generalised positive bias increasing with altitude (from +8.9% at Kénitra to +112.9% at Pont du Mdez), with severe NSE degradation in complex relief areas (NSE = −3.834 at Pont du Sker). After QM correction, the mean bias drops to −0.1% and mean NSE improves from −0.32 to +0.68. Cross-validation (100 random-splitting iterations) confirms correction robustness, yielding a mean NSE of 0.594 ± 0.076. The stationarity hypothesis at the 2001/2002 boundary is validated for all eleven stations through the Pettitt test applied directly to the ERA5–OBS bias series (p = 1.000). Mann–Kendall trend analysis reveals no significant trend for most stations, reflecting strong natural decadal variability of the semi-arid Mediterranean regime, which may limit trend detection over the study period. SPI-12 analysis identifies four major drought episodes (1981–1985, 1991–1995, 1999–2002, 2018–2022) and notable wet surpluses (1995–1996, 2008–2010). Aïn Timédrine (650 m) shows notable chronic drought vulnerability (9 years with SPI-12 < −1.0). This study provides the first continuous 44-year monthly precipitation series for the Sebou basin, quantifies the ERA5 elevation mismatch (Δz) as the dominant bias predictor (r = −0.828, p = 0.002), and delivers a multi-scale drought characterisation (SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12), constituting a valuable dataset for long-term hydrological modelling. Full article

Groundwater resources in semi-arid regions are increasingly threatened by agricultural intensification, irrigation expansion, and climate variability. This study investigates the influence of irrigation practices on groundwater recharge and quality degradation in the semi-arid Regueb Basin, Central Tunisia, using an integrated framework combining hydrochemical analysis, irrigation water quality indices, GIS-based spatial modeling, and explainable machine learning (XAI). Thirty groundwater samples were analyzed for major physicochemical parameters and irrigation suitability indicators, including Electrical Conductivity (EC), Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR), sodium percentage (%Na), and Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI). Hydrochemical facies are dominated by Ca–Mg–Cl, Na–Cl, and Ca–Mg–SO₄ water types, reflecting the combined effects of evaporite dissolution, water–rock interaction, evaporation, and irrigation return flow. Groundwater salinity is generally high, with EC values ranging from 1490 to 8710 µS/cm, while nitrate concentrations frequently exceed the World Health Organization guideline value of 50 mg/L in intensively cultivated zones, indicating significant anthropogenic contamination linked to fertilizer leaching and irrigation practices. GIS-based recharge assessment indicates that irrigation return flow may represent an important component of effective recharge in cultivated areas under semi-arid conditions while simultaneously contributing to salinization and nutrient accumulation within the aquifer system. However, quantitative partitioning of recharge sources requires further investigation using tracer-based approaches and numerical modeling. More than 40% of groundwater samples were classified as unsuitable for irrigation because of elevated salinity and sodicity hazards. To explore the relationships among irrigation water quality indicators, several machine-learning algorithms were evaluated for IWQI estimation and interpretation. Linear Regression achieved the highest performance for IWQI estimation (R² = 0.9839), reflecting the strong internal relationships among irrigation water quality indicators. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified Residual Sodium Carbonate (RSC) as the most influential parameter controlling irrigation water quality. The results highlight the dual role of irrigation as both a recharge-enhancing mechanism and a driver of groundwater degradation. This study provides an integrated hydrochemical–GIS–XAI framework for identifying vulnerable zones and supporting sustainable groundwater management strategies in semi-arid agricultural regions. Full article

This study addresses the dual challenges of seasonal water scarcity and urban flooding in the Garzan River basin, a region with a semi-arid climate. We propose and analyze an integrated water management system designed to mitigate these risks and promote both ecological and economic sustainability. Our methodology began with a comprehensive analysis of meteorological data from 2000 to 2024, which quantified the significant seasonal irregularity in the annual rainfall regime. The findings revealed that the bulk of the average 800 mm of rainfall occurs between January and May, while the summer months experience near-drought conditions. Based on this, we calculated the potential of various water conservation strategies. The system combines rainwater harvesting from a 1000 m² roof and a 500 m² parking lot, projected to collect 1020 m³ annually, with greywater reclamation and low-flow fixtures, which add a combined 400 m³ of annual savings. The total annual water savings of 1420 m³ were found to provide a gross annual economic benefit of $3550. Considering the installation and maintenance costs, the project’s payback period is estimated to be around 32 years. We also developed an annual precipitation prediction model providing a locally applicable early warning mechanism that forecasts total rainfall based on spring data. The use of proactive hydrometeorological data can improve the feasibility of long-term infrastructure projects to a certain extent. Finally, the proposed system’s design was confirmed to be eligible for multiple LEED certification credits, demonstrating its alignment with international sustainability standards. In conclusion, this research provides a comprehensive and viable solution that addresses local water issues and offers a valuable model for other regions facing similar challenges. Full article

Groundwater is a critical water source in the semi-arid West Liao River Basin (WLRB). Based on daily observations from 117 monitoring wells distributed across the basin during 2019–2024, this study analyzed interannual and seasonal groundwater-level dynamics and identified areas of relative groundwater stress using groundwater level elevation (WLE) and depth to water (DTW). The Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, ordinary kriging, and a composite risk index were applied to quantify temporal trends, map spatial patterns, and classify groundwater risk. Regional WLE showed weak interannual variability but a distinct seasonal cycle, with positive anomalies from January to April and negative anomalies from June to September. At the well scale, 51 wells (43.59%) exhibited significant increases, whereas 36 wells (30.77%) showed significant decreases. Sen’s slope ranged from −2.75 to 0.61 m/year, indicating that the strongest local changes were associated with groundwater-level decline. Spatially, WLE was generally higher in the southwest and lower toward the northeast. Areas with WLE decline were concentrated in the central-western and southern sectors, whereas relative WLE increases occurred in parts of the northern and eastern sectors. The low-, medium-, and high-risk classes included 39, 38, and 39 wells, accounting for 33.62%, 32.76%, and 33.62% of the wells retained for the risk assessment, respectively. High-risk wells clustered in the central-western and southern areas, while low-risk wells dominated the northern and eastern sectors. These results highlight the importance of well-scale monitoring for identifying priority areas of groundwater stress. The proposed framework provides a practical basis for screening priority monitoring areas and supporting spatially differentiated groundwater management in semi-arid basins. However, this study is limited by the relatively short monitoring period (2019–2024) and the lack of quantitative driver attribution; therefore, the findings reflect recent groundwater dynamics rather than long-term secular trends. Full article