Search Results (1,116)

To remain competitive in the decarbonization process of the economy worldwide, energy companies must preserve their market value to attract new investors and remain resilient throughout the transition to net zero. This article examines the market value of US energy companies during the period 2012–2024 in relation to their power generation mix. Panel regression analyses reveal that Tobin’s q and price-to-book ratios increase significantly for solar and wind power, while they experience moderate increases for natural gas power. In contrast, Tobin’s q and price-to-book ratios decline for nuclear and coal power. Furthermore, accounting-based profitability, measured by the return on assets (ROA), does not show significant variation with any type of power generation. The findings suggest that market investors prefer solar, wind, and natural gas power generation, thereby attributing greater value (that is, demanding lower risk compensation) to green companies compared to traditional ones. These insights provide guidance to executives, investors, and policy makers on how the power generation mix can influence strategic decisions in the energy sector. Full article

In this study, we investigate the return propagation mechanism, hedging effectiveness, and portfolio performance across several common agricultural commodities, crude oil, and S&P 500 index, ranging from July 2000 to June 2024 by using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach and three common multiple assets portfolio optimization strategies. The empirical results show that, the total connectedness peaked during the 2008 global financial crisis, followed by the European debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, while it remained relatively lower at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the transmission mechanism, commodities and S&P 500 index exhibit distinct and dynamic characteristics as transmitters or receivers. Portfolio analysis reveals that, with exception of the COVID-19 pandemic, all three dynamic portfolios outperform the S&P 500 benchmark across major global crises. Additionally, the minimum correlation and minimum connectedness strategies are superior than transitional minimum variance method in most scenarios. Our findings have implications for policymakers in preventing systemic risk, for investors in managing portfolio risk, and for farmers and agribusiness enterprises in enhancing economic benefits. Full article

In this paper a new state model is introduced, an adaptative state model in a binary temporal representation (ASMBRT) as well as its application in constructing an algorithmic trading system. The presented model uses the binary temporal representation, which allows for a precise analysis of exchange rates without losing any informative value of the data. The basis of the model is the trajectory analysis for the ensuing changes in price quotations and dependencies between the duration of each change. The main advantage of the model is to eliminate the threshold analysis, used in existing state models. This solution allows for a more accurate identification of investor behavior patterns, which translates into a reduction of investment risk. In order to verify obtained results in practice, the paper presents a concept of creating an algorithmic trading system and an analysis of its financial effectiveness for the exchange rate most popular among investors, namely EUR/USD. Full article

Quantum finance, as a key application scenario of quantum computing, showcases multiple significant advantages of quantum machine learning over traditional machine learning methods. This paper first aims to overcome the limitations of the hidden quantum Markov model (HQMM) in handling continuous data and proposes an innovative method to convert continuous data into discrete-time sequence data. Second, a hybrid quantum computing model is developed to forecast stock market trends. The model was used to predict 15 stock indices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between June 2018 and June 2021. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed quantum model outperforms classical algorithmic models in handling higher complexity, achieving improved efficiency, reduced computation time, and superior predictive performance. This validation of quantum advantage in financial forecasting enables the practical deployment of quantum-inspired prediction models by investors and institutions in trading environments. This quantum-enhanced model empowers investors to predict market regimes (bullish/bearish/range-bound) using real-time data, enabling dynamic portfolio adjustments, optimized risk controls, and data-driven allocation shifts. Full article

This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to explore their unique cyclical and macroeconomic sensitivities. This study looks at the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in relation to more general REIT indexes and the S&P 500 Index. The study reveals that monthly returns of Hospitality REITs increasingly move in tandem with the stock markets during financial crises, which reduces their historical function as portfolio diversifiers. Investing in Hospitality REITs exposes one to the hospitality sector; however, these investments carry notable risks and provide little protection, particularly during economic upheavals. Furthermore, the study reveals that Hospitality REITs underperform on a risk-adjusted basis relative to benchmark indexes. The monthly returns of REITs show significant volatility during the post-COVID-19 era, which causes return-to-risk ratios to be below those of benchmark indexes. Estimates from multi-factor models indicate negative alpha values across conditional models, indicating that macroeconomic variables cause unremunerated risks. This industry shows great sensitivity to market beta and size and value determinants. Hospitality REITs’ susceptibility comes from their showing the most possibility for exceptional losses across asset classes under Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CvaR) downside risk assessments. The findings have implications for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that Hospitality REITs may not offer consistent diversification benefits during downturns but can serve a tactical role in procyclical investment strategies. Full article

We introduce a novel portfolio optimization framework—Distributionally Robust Multivariate Stochastic Cone Order (DR-MSCO)—which integrates partial orders on random vectors with Wasserstein-metric ambiguity sets and adaptive cone structures to model multivariate investor preferences under distributional uncertainty. Grounded in measure theory and convex analysis, DR-MSCO employs data-driven cone selection calibrated to market regimes, along with coherent tail-risk operators that generalize Conditional Value-at-Risk to the multivariate setting. We derive a tractable second-order cone programming reformulation and demonstrate statistical consistency under empirical ambiguity sets. Empirically, we apply DR-MSCO to 23 Borsa Istanbul equities from 2021–2024, using a rolling estimation window and realistic transaction costs. Compared to classical mean–variance and standard distributionally robust benchmarks, DR-MSCO achieves higher overall and crisis-period Sharpe ratios (2.18 vs. 2.09 full sample; 0.95 vs. 0.69 during crises), reduces maximum drawdown by 10%, and yields endogenous diversification without exogenous constraints. Our results underscore the practical benefits of combining multivariate preference modeling with distributional robustness, offering institutional investors a tractable tool for resilient portfolio construction in volatile emerging markets. Full article

In the past decade, agricultural biogas plants have become one of the key tools driving the energy transition in rural areas. Nevertheless, their development in Poland still lags behind that in Western European countries, suggesting the existence of barriers that go beyond technological or regulatory issues. This study aims to examine how Polish farmers perceive the risks and expected benefits associated with investing in biogas plants and which of these perceptions influence their willingness to invest. The research was conducted in the second quarter of 2025 among farmers planning to build micro biogas plants as well as owners of existing biogas facilities. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were also used in selecting respondents and identifying potential investment sites, helping to pinpoint areas with favorable spatial and environmental conditions. The findings show that both current and prospective biogas plant operators view complex legal requirements, social risk, and financial uncertainty as the main obstacles. However, both groups are primarily motivated by the desire for on-farm energy self-sufficiency and the environmental benefits of improved agricultural waste management. Owners of operational installations—particularly small and medium-sized ones—tend to rate all categories of risk significantly lower than prospective investors, suggesting that practical experience and knowledge-sharing can effectively alleviate perceived risks related to renewable energy investments. Full article

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the connectedness dynamics among the sovereign bonds of the emerging seven (E7) and the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Initially, a quantile-based vector-autoregressive (Q-VAR) connectedness approach is used to calculate the total connectedness index (TCI) among sovereign bonds under different market states. Then, the impact of GPR on the TCI at the median and tails is estimated to examine if GPR affects the TCI among sovereign bonds. Using daily yields from 30 January 2012, to 17 June 2024, the findings show that the GPR is one of the significant determinants of the TCI among sovereign bonds during normal and extreme market conditions. Other determinants of the TCI include yields on Treasury bills (T-bills), the exchange rate, and the financial market volatility index. The impact of GPR on the TCI varies significantly during different GPR episodes and bond market conditions. The effect of GPR on the TCI among sovereign bonds yields is higher during war times and when bond yields are average. These findings can be utilized by investors seeking to achieve international diversification and policymakers aiming to mitigate the effects of heightened geopolitical risk on financial stability. Furthermore, GPR can be used as an early signal tool for systematic tail risk spillovers among sovereign bonds. Full article

The continuously enhanced generative capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) are challenging the existing patent system. There are still some issues, such as whether AI can be considered an inventor, whether technical solutions generated by AI are patentable, and how ownership should be allocated. AI-generated technical solutions fall under the category of patentable subject matter. Specifically, if they meet the requirements of the “three criteria,” they can become the subject of patent rights. Regarding the issue of AI’s eligibility as an inventor, a parallel technical generation registration system for AI should be established, with the current inventor system maintained in parallel. Concerning patent ownership issues, the assignable subjects of patent rights should be limited to the binary subjects of users and investors. Contractual agreements should take precedence to ensure contractual freedom, and ownership should generally be attributed to the user if no agreement exists. Additionally, a specialized fast-track review and authorization mechanism should be designed for AI-generated technical solutions, given the unique nature of AI-generated solutions. Moreover, their protection periods should be appropriately shortened to ensure a balance of interests. Furthermore, a disclosure system should be built across the entire lifecycle to prevent and mitigate risks that may arise during the machine generation of technical solutions, patent applications, patent authorizations, and dissemination stages. Full article

Accepting a certain degree of investment loss risk is essential for long-term portfolio management. However, overconfidence bias within financial literacy can prompt excessively risky behavior and amplify susceptibility to other cognitive biases. These tendencies can undermine investment loss tolerance beyond the baseline level shaped by sociodemographic, economic, psychological, and cultural factors. This study empirically examines the association between overconfidence and investment loss tolerance, which is measured by the point at which respondents indicate they would sell their investments in a hypothetical loss scenario. Using a large-scale dataset of 161,765 active investors from one of Japan’s largest online securities firms, we conduct ordered probit and ordered logit regression analyses, controlling for a range of sociodemographic, economic, and psychological variables. Our findings reveal that overconfidence is statistically significantly and negatively associated with investment loss tolerance, indicating that overconfident investors are more prone to prematurely liquidating assets during market downturns. This behavior reflects an impulse to avoid even modest losses. The findings suggest several possible practical strategies to mitigate the detrimental effects of overconfidence on long-term investment behavior. Full article

This study investigates whether internationally diversified firms substitute between accrual-based and real earnings management and examines how institutional supervision moderates this relationship. Drawing on a sample of Taiwanese firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange from 2003 to 2016, we conduct regression analyses to test our hypothesis. We find that internationally diversified firms actively shift between accrual and real earnings management strategies depending on the constraints they face. Specifically, firms tend to rely more on accrual-based manipulation when information asymmetry is high and switch to real earnings management when accruals are more easily detected. We also show that stronger institutional supervision—measured by information transparency and investor protection—significantly curbs accrual-based earnings management. These findings reflect the higher volatility and agency problems associated with international operations, such as exposure to foreign risks and the distance between parent and subsidiary firms. By highlighting the conditions under which firms manage earnings and the supervisory mechanisms that constrain such behavior, this study offers practical insights for managers seeking to smooth earnings, investors aiming to evaluate firm transparency, and policymakers designing regulations to deter opportunistic financial reporting. Full article

Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility during crises, particularly COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, prompting questions about how regional markets respond to such shocks. Previous research highlights the influence of crises on stock market volatility, focusing on individual events or global markets, but less is known about the comparative dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Our study investigated volatility and asymmetric behavior within GCC stock markets during both crises. Furthermore, the econometric model E-GARCH(1,1) was applied to the daily frequency data of financial stock market returns from 11 March 2020 to 31 July 2023. This study examined volatility fluctuation patterns and provides a comparative assessment of GCC stock markets’ behavior during crises. Our findings reveal varying degrees of market volatility across the region during the COVID-19 crisis, with Qatar and the UAE exhibiting the highest levels of volatility persistence. In contrast, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a distinct effect on GCC markets, with Oman exhibiting the highest volatility persistence and Kuwait having the lowest volatility persistence. This study provides significant insights for policymakers and investors in managing risk and enhancing market resilience during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Full article

Hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a key element of the transition to a low-carbon energy system, leading to a growing interest in accurate and sustainable assessment of its economic viability. Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) is one of the most widely used metrics for comparing hydrogen production technologies and informing investment decisions. However, traditional LCOH calculation methods apply a single discount rate to all cash flows without distinguishing between the risks associated with outflows and inflows. This approach may yield a systematic overestimation of costs, especially in capital-intensive projects. In this study, we adapt a binary cash flow discounting model, previously proposed in the finance literature, for hydrogen energy systems. The model employs two distinct discount rates, one for costs and one for revenues, with a rate structure based on the required return and the risk-free rate, thereby ensuring that arbitrage conditions are not present. Our approach allows the range of possible LCOH values to be determined, eliminating the methodological errors inherent in traditional formulas. A numerical analysis is performed to assess the impact of a change in the general rate of return on the final LCOH value. The method is tested on five typical hydrogen production technologies with fixed productivity and cost parameters. The results show that the traditional approach consistently overestimates costs, whereas the binary model provides a more balanced and risk-adjusted representation of costs, particularly for projects with high capital expenditures. These findings may be useful for investors, policymakers, and researchers developing tools to support and evaluate hydrogen energy projects. Full article

The dynamic development of distributed sources (mainly RES) contributes to the emergence of, among others, balance and overload problems. For this reason, many RES do not receive conditions for connection to the power grid in Poland. Operators sometimes extend permits based on the possibility of periodic power reduction in RES in the event of the problems mentioned above. Before making a decision, investors, for economic reasons, need information on the probability of annual power reduction in their potential installation. Analyses that allow one to determine such a probability require knowledge of the reliability indicators of transmission lines and transformers, as well as failure removal times. The article analyses the available literature on the annual risk of outages of these elements and methods to determine the appropriate reliability indicators. Example calculations were performed for two networks (test and real). The values of indicators and times that can be used in practice were indicated. The unique contribution of this article lies not only in the comprehensive comparison of current, relevant transmission line and transformer reliability analysis methods but also in developing the first reliability indices for the Polish power system in more than 30 years. It is based on the relationships presented in the article and their comparison with results reported in the international literature. Full article

This paper explores the effectiveness of an innovative FinTech risk-scoring model to predict the risk-appropriate return for short-term credit sales. The risk score serves to mitigate the information asymmetry between the seller of receivables (“Seller”) and the purchaser (“Funder”), at the same time providing an opportunity for the Funder to earn returns as well as to diversify its portfolio on a risk-appropriate basis. Selling receivables/credit to potential Funders at a risk-appropriate discount also helps Sellers to maintain their short-term financial liquidity and provide the necessary cash flow for operations and other immediate financial needs. We use 18,304 short-term credit-sale transactions between 23 April 2020 and 30 September 2022 from the private FinTech startup Crowdz and its Sustainability, Underwriting, Risk & Financial (SURF) risk-scoring system to analyze the risk/return relationship. The data includes risk scores for both Sellers of receivables (e.g., invoices) along with the Obligors (firms purchasing goods and services from the Seller) on those receivables and provides, as outputs, the mutual gains by the Sellers and the financial institutions or other investors funding the receivables (i.e., the Funders). Our analysis shows that the SURF Score is instrumental in mitigating the information asymmetry between the Sellers and the Funders and provides risk-appropriate periodic returns to the Funders across industries. A comparative analysis shows that the use of SURF technology generates higher risk-appropriate annualized internal rates of return (IRR) as compared to nonuse of the SURF Score risk-scoring system in these transactions. While Sellers and Funders enter into a win-win relationship (in the absence of a default), Sellers of credit instruments are not often scored based on the potential diversification by industry classification. Crowdz’s SURF technology does so and provides Funders with diversification opportunities through numerous invoices of differing amounts and SURF Scores in a wide range of industries. The analysis also shows that Sellers generally have lower financing stability as compared to the Obligors (payers on receivables), a fact captured in the SURF Scores. Full article