Search Results (657)

We introduce a novel portfolio optimization framework—Distributionally Robust Multivariate Stochastic Cone Order (DR-MSCO)—which integrates partial orders on random vectors with Wasserstein-metric ambiguity sets and adaptive cone structures to model multivariate investor preferences under distributional uncertainty. Grounded in measure theory and convex analysis, DR-MSCO employs data-driven cone selection calibrated to market regimes, along with coherent tail-risk operators that generalize Conditional Value-at-Risk to the multivariate setting. We derive a tractable second-order cone programming reformulation and demonstrate statistical consistency under empirical ambiguity sets. Empirically, we apply DR-MSCO to 23 Borsa Istanbul equities from 2021–2024, using a rolling estimation window and realistic transaction costs. Compared to classical mean–variance and standard distributionally robust benchmarks, DR-MSCO achieves higher overall and crisis-period Sharpe ratios (2.18 vs. 2.09 full sample; 0.95 vs. 0.69 during crises), reduces maximum drawdown by 10%, and yields endogenous diversification without exogenous constraints. Our results underscore the practical benefits of combining multivariate preference modeling with distributional robustness, offering institutional investors a tractable tool for resilient portfolio construction in volatile emerging markets. Full article

Urban metabolism frameworks offer insight into flows of energy, materials, and services in cities, yet tree species selection is seldom treated as a metabolic indicator. In Amman, Jordan, we integrate spatial metabolic metrics to critique monocultural greening policies and demonstrate how species choices forecast long-term urban metabolic performance. Using ENVI-met 5.61 simulations, we compare Melia azedarach, Olea europaea, and Ceratonia siliqua, mainly assessing urban flow related elements like air temperature reduction, CO₂ sequestration, and evapotranspiration alongside rooting depth, isoprene emissions, and biodiversity support. Melia delivers rapid cooling but shows other negatives like a low biodiversity value; Olea offers average cooling and sequestration but has allergenic pollen issues in people as a flow; Ceratonia provides scalable cooling, increased carbon uptake, and has a high ecological value. We propose a metabolic reframing of green infrastructure planning to choose urban species, guided by system feedback rather than aesthetics, to ensure long-term resilience in arid urban climates. Full article

Background/Objectives: Global warming and rising CO₂ concentrations pose significant challenges to plant systems. Amid these pressures, this study contributes to understanding how tropical species respond by simultaneously evaluating reproductive and genetic traits. It specifically investigates the effects of maternal exposure to warming and elevated CO₂ on progeny physiology, genetic diversity, and population structure in Stylosanthes capitata, a resilient forage legume native to Brazil. Methods: Maternal plants were cultivated under controlled treatments, including ambient conditions (control), elevated CO₂ at 600 ppm (eCO₂), elevated temperature at +2 °C (eTE), and their combined exposure (eTEeCO₂), within a Trop-T-FACE field facility (Temperature Free-Air Controlled Enhancement and Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment). Seed traits (seeds per inflorescence, hundred-seed mass, abortion, non-viable seeds, coat color, germination at 32, 40, 71 weeks) and abnormal seedling rates were quantified. Genetic diversity metrics included the average (A) and effective (Ae) number of alleles, observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosity, and inbreeding coefficient (Fis). Population structure was assessed using Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA), Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA), number of migrants per generation (Nm), and genetic differentiation index (Fst). Two- and three-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) were used to evaluate factor effects. Results: Compared to control conditions, warming increased seeds per inflorescence (+46%), reduced abortion (−42.9%), non-viable seeds (−57%), and altered coat color. The germination speed index (GSI +23.5%) and germination rate (Gr +11%) improved with warming; combined treatments decreased germination time (GT −9.6%). Storage preserved germination traits, with warming enhancing performance over time and reducing abnormal seedlings (−54.5%). Conversely, elevated CO₂ shortened GSI in late stages, impairing germination efficiency. Warming reduced Ae (−35%), He (−20%), and raised Fis (maternal 0.50, progeny 0.58), consistent with the species’ mixed mating system; A and Ho were unaffected. Allele frequency shifts suggested selective pressure under eTE. Warming induced slight structure in PCoA, and AMOVA detected 1% (maternal) and 9% (progeny) variation. Fst = 0.06 and Nm = 3.8 imply environmental influence without isolation. Conclusions: Warming significantly shapes seed quality, reproductive success, and genetic diversity in S. capitata. Improved reproduction and germination suggest adaptive advantages, but higher inbreeding and reduced diversity may constrain long-term resilience. The findings underscore the need for genetic monitoring and broader genetic bases in cultivars confronting environmental stressors. Full article

In the design of multiprocessor systems, evaluating the reliability of interconnection networks is a critical aspect that significantly impacts system performance and functionality. When quantifying the reliability of these networks, extra connectivity and extra diagnosability serve as fundamental metric parameters, offering valuable insights into the network’s resilience and fault-handling capabilities. In this paper, we investigate the 1-extra connectivity and 1-extra diagnosability of the n-dimensional enhanced folded hypercube-like network. Through analysis, we show that the 1-extra connectivity of this network is $2n+2$. Moreover, for $n>5$, we determine its 1-extra diagnosability under both the PMC model and the MM${}^{\ast }$ model to be $2n+3$. These results show that as the dimension n increases, both the 1-extra connectivity and 1-extra diagnosability of the network approach approximately twice the value of traditional diagnosability metrics. This provides quantitative insights into the reliability properties of the enhanced folded hypercube-like network, contributing to a better understanding of its performance in terms of connectivity and fault diagnosis. Full article

This paper presents a stochastic analysis of a two-unit cold standby system incorporating imperfect switching mechanisms. Each unit operates in one of three states: normal, partial failure, or total failure. Employing Markov processes, the study evaluates system reliability by examining the mean time to failure (MTTF) and steady-state availability metrics. Failure and repair times are assumed to follow exponential distributions, while the switching mechanism is modeled as either perfect or imperfect. The results highlight the significant influence of switching reliability on both MTTF and system availability. This analysis is crucial for optimizing the performance of complex systems, such as thermal power plants, where continuous and reliable operation is imperative. The study also aligns with recent research trends emphasizing the integration of preventive maintenance and advanced reliability modeling approaches to enhance overall system resilience. Full article

Thermal resilience is critical for building safety in cold climates during heating outages. This study presents full-scale experimental data from two residential buildings in Poland, tested during the winter of 2024–2025 under both typical and extreme outdoor conditions. The buildings—a lightweight timber-frame structure and a mediumweight masonry structure with ground coupling—were exposed to multi-day heating blackouts, and their thermal responses were monitored at a high temporal resolution. Several resilience indicators were used, including the resistance time (RT), degree of disruption (DoD), and hours of safety threshold (HST). Additionally, two time-based metrics—the time to threshold (T_x) and temperature at X-hours (T(t_x))—were introduced to improve classification in long-duration scenarios. The weighted unmet thermal performance (WUMTP) index was also implemented and validated using experimental data. The results show that thermal mass and ground coupling significantly improved passive resilience, enabling the mediumweight building to maintain temperatures above 15 °C for over 60 h without heating. This study provides new empirical evidence of passive survivability in blackout conditions and supports the development of time-sensitive assessment tools for cold climates. The findings may inform future updates to building codes and retrofit guidelines. Full article

In the face of escalating cyber threats to critical infrastructures, achieving robust cyber resilience has become paramount. This paper proposes an endogenous security-oriented framework for cyber resilience assessment, specifically tailored for critical infrastructures. Drawing on the principles of endogenous security, our framework integrates dynamic heterogeneous redundancy (DHR) and adaptive defense mechanisms to address both known and unknown threats. We model resilience across four key dimensions—Prevention, Destruction Resistance, Adaptive Recovery, and Evolutionary Learning—using a novel mathematical formulation that captures nonlinear interactions and temporal dynamics. The framework incorporates environmental threat entropy to dynamically adjust resilience scores, ensuring relevance in evolving attack landscapes. Through empirical validation on simulated critical infrastructure scenarios, we demonstrate the framework’s ability to quantify resilience trajectories and trigger timely defensive adaptations. Empiricalvalidation on a real-world critical infrastructure system yielded an overall resilience score of 82.75, revealing a critical imbalance between strong preventive capabilities (90/100) and weak Adaptive Recovery (66/100). Our approach offers a significant advancement over static risk assessment models by providing actionable metrics for strategic resilience investments. This work contributes to the field by bridging endogenous security theory with practical resilience engineering, paving the way for more robust protection of critical systems against sophisticated cyber threats. Full article

This study investigates the genetic diversity and population structure of Castanopsis tribuloides, a vital tree species in Asian forest ecosystems. Understanding the genetic patterns of keystone forest species provides critical insights into forest resilience and ecosystem function and informs conservation strategies. We analyzed population samples collected from three distinct locations within Doi Suthep Mountain in northern Thailand using Short Tandem Repeat (STR) markers to assess both intra- and inter-population genetic relationships. DNA was extracted from leaf samples and analyzed using a panel of polymorphic microsatellite loci specifically optimized for Castanopsis species. Statistical analyses included the assessment of forensic parameters (number of alleles, observed and expected heterozygosity, gene diversity, polymorphic information content), population differentiation metrics (G_ST), inbreeding coefficients (F_IS), and gene flow estimates (N_m). We further examined population history through bottleneck analysis using three models (IAM, SMM, and TPM) and visualized genetic relationships through principal coordinate analysis and cluster analysis. Our results revealed significant patterns of genetic structuring across the sampled populations, with genetic distance metrics showing statistically significant differentiation between certain population pairs. The PCA and cluster analyses confirmed distinct population groupings that correspond to geographic distribution patterns. These findings provide the first comprehensive assessment of C. tribuloides population genetics in this region, establishing baseline data for monitoring genetic diversity and informing conservation strategies. This research contributes to our understanding of how landscape features and ecological factors shape genetic diversity patterns in essential forest tree species, with implications for managing forest genetic resources in the face of environmental change. Full article

The present study was motivated by the need to enhance indoor air quality and reduce airborne disease transmission in dense urban environments where high-rise residential buildings face challenges in achieving effective natural ventilation. The problem lies in the lack of scalable and convenient tools to optimize natural ventilation rate, particularly in urban settings with varying building heights. To address this, the scientific technique developed with an innovative metric, the urbanized natural ventilation effectiveness factor (uNVeF), integrates regression analysis of wind direction, velocity, air change rate per hour (ACH), window configurations, and building height to quantify ventilation efficiency. By employing a field measurement methodology, the measurements were conducted across 25 window-opening scenarios in a 13.9 m² residential unit on the 35/F of a Hong Kong public housing building, supplemented by the Hellman Exponential Law with a site-specific friction coefficient (0.2907, R² = 0.9232) to estimate the lower floor natural ventilation rate. The results confirm compliance with Hong Kong’s statutory 1.5 ACH requirement (Practice Note for Authorized Persons, Registered Structural Engineers, and Registered Geotechnical Engineers) and achieving a peak ACH at a uNVeF of 0.953 with 75% window opening. The results also revealed that lower floors can maintain 1.5 ACH with adjusted window configurations. Using the Wells–Riley model, the estimation results indicated significant airborne disease infection risk reductions of 96.1% at 35/F and 93.4% at 1/F compared to the 1.5 ACH baseline which demonstrates a strong correlation between ACH, uNVeF and infection risks. The uNVeF framework offers a practical approach to optimize natural ventilation and provides actionable guidelines, together with future research on the scope of validity to refine this technique for residents and developers. The implications in the building industry include setting up sustainable design standards, enhancing public health resilience, supporting policy frameworks for energy-efficient urban planning, and potentially driving innovation in high-rise residential construction and retrofitting globally. Full article

This study examines diurnal surface temperature dynamics across major Moroccan cities during the growing season and explores the interaction between urban and vegetated surfaces. We also introduce the Urban Thermal Impact Ratio (UTIR), a novel metric designed to quantify urban thermal comfort as a function of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity. The analysis is based on outputs from a land surface model (LSM) for the year 2010, integrating high-resolution Landsat and MODIS data to characterize land cover and biophysical parameters across twelve land cover types. Our findings reveal moderate urban–vegetation temperature differences in coastal cities like Tangier (1.8 °C) and Rabat (1.0 °C), where winter vegetation remains active. In inland areas, urban morphology plays a more dominant role: Fes, with a 20% impervious surface area (ISA), exhibits a smaller SUHI than Meknes (5% ISA), due to higher urban heating in the latter. The Atlantic desert city of Dakhla shows a distinct pattern, with a nighttime SUHI of 2.1 °C and a daytime urban cooling of −0.7 °C, driven by irrigated parks and lawns enhancing evapotranspiration and shading. At the regional scale, summer UTIR values remain below one in Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra, and Casablanca-Settat, suggesting that urban conditions generally stay within thermal comfort thresholds. In contrast, higher UTIR values in Marrakech-Safi, Beni Mellal-Khénifra, and Guelmim-Oued Noun indicate elevated heat discomfort. At the city scale, the UTIR in Tangier, Rabat, and Casablanca demonstrates a clear diurnal pattern: it emerges around 11:00 a.m., peaks at 1:00 p.m., and fades by 3:00 p.m. This study highlights the critical role of vegetation in regulating urban surface temperatures and modulating urban–rural thermal contrasts. The UTIR provides a practical, scalable indicator of urban heat stress, particularly valuable in data-scarce settings. These findings carry significant implications for climate-resilient urban planning, optimized energy use, and the design of public health early warning systems in the context of climate change. Full article

This paper reviews the variability of passenger service time (PST) at the platform–train interface (PTI), a critical performance indicator in metro systems shaped by the infrastructure design, affecting passenger behavior and accessibility. Despite its operational importance, PST remains underexplored in relation to crowd management strategies. This review synthesizes findings from empirical and experimental research to clarify the main factors influencing PST and their implications for platform-level interventions. Key contributors to PST variability include door width, gap dimensions, crowd density, and user characteristics such as mobility impairments. Design elements—such as platform edge doors, yellow safety lines, and vertical handrails—affect flow efficiency and spatial dynamics during boarding and alighting. Advanced tracking and simulation tools (e.g., PeTrack and YOLO-based systems) are identified as essential for evaluating pedestrian behavior and supporting Level of Service (LOS) analysis. To complement traditional LOS metrics, the paper introduces Level of Interaction (LOI) and a multidimensional LOS framework that captures spatial conflicts and user interaction zones. Control strategies such as platform signage, seating arrangements, and visual cues are also reviewed, with experimental evidence showing that targeted design interventions can reduce PST by up to 35%. The review highlights a persistent gap between academic knowledge and practical implementation. It calls for greater integration of empirical evidence into policy, infrastructure standards, and operational contracts. Ultimately, it advocates for human-centered, data-informed approaches to PTI planning that enhance efficiency, inclusivity, and resilience in high-demand transit environments. Full article

Understanding and forecasting energy consumption patterns is crucial for improving energy efficiency and human well-being, especially in diverse infrastructures like Spain. This research addresses a significant gap in energy demand forecasting across three building types by comparing six machine learning algorithms: Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forest, XGBoost, Radial Basis Function Network, Autoencoder, and Decision Trees. The primary aim is to identify the most effective model for predicting energy consumption based on historical data, contributing to the relationship between energy systems and urban well-being. The study emphasizes challenges in energy use and advocates for sustainable management practices. By forecasting energy demand over the next three years using linear regression, it provides actionable insights for energy providers, enhancing resilience in urban environments impacted by climate change. The findings deepen our understanding of energy dynamics across various building types and promote a sustainable energy future. Stakeholders will receive targeted recommendations for aligning energy production with consumption trends while meeting environmental responsibilities. Model performance is rigorously evaluated using metrics like Squared Mean Root Percentage Error (RMSPE) and Coefficient of Determination (R²), ensuring robust analysis. Training times for models in the LUCIA building ranged from 2 to 19 s, with the Decision Tree model showing the shortest times, highlighting the need to balance computational efficiency with model performance. Full article

This study extends our prior blockchain-based traceability framework, WEave, for application to a furniture supply chain scenario, while using the original multi-tier apparel supply chain as an anchoring use case. We integrate circular economy principles such as product reuse, recycling traceability, and full lifecycle transparency to bolster sustainability and resilience in supply chains by enabling data-driven accountability and tracking for closed-loop resource flows. The enhanced approach can track post-consumer returns, use of recycled materials, and second-life goods, all represented using a closed-loop supply chain topology. We describe the extended network architecture and smart contract logic needed to capture circular lifecycle events, while proposing new metrics for evaluating lifecycle traceability and reuse auditability. To validate the extended framework, we outline simulation experiments that incorporate circular flows and cross-industry scenarios. Results from these simulations indicate improved transparency on recycled content, audit trails for returned products, and acceptable performance overhead when scaling to different product domains. Finally, we offer conclusions and recommendations for implementing WEave functionality into real-world settings consistent with the goals of digital, resilient, and sustainable supply chains. Full article

The increased occurrence and severity of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure have underscored the need to embrace systematic and prospective approaches to resilience. The current research takes as its hypothesis that the InfraGuard Cybersecurity Framework—a capability model that measures the maturity of cyber resilience through three functional pillars, Cyber as a Shield, Cyber as a Space, and Cyber as a Sword—is an implementable and understandable means to proceed with. The model treats the significant aspects of situational awareness, active defense, risk management, and recovery from incidents and is measured using globally standardized maturity models like ISO/IEC 15504, NIST CSF, and COBIT. The contributions include multidimensional measurements of resilience, a scored scale of capability (0–5), and domain-based classification enabling organizations to assess and enhance their cybersecurity situation in a formalized manner. The framework’s applicability is illustrated in three exploratory settings of power grids, healthcare systems, and airports, each constituting various levels of maturity in resilience. This study provides down-to-earth recommendations to policymakers through the translation of the attributes of resilience into concrete assessment indicators, promoting policymaking, investment planning, and global cyber defense collaboration. Full article

Achieving global coverage and performance goals for 6G requires seamless integration of satellite and terrestrial networks, yet current operational frameworks lack common standards for managing these heterogeneous infrastructures. This paper addresses the critical need for unified satellite-terrestrial network operations by proposing the CMS framework, a novel task-scheduling-based approach that bridges the operational gap between satellite operations (SatOps) and network operations (NetOps). The framework integrates satellite-specific constraints with network service requirements and QoS metrics through constraint satisfaction programming and multi-objective optimization. Three novel architectures are introduced: integrated operations (embedding NetOps within SatOps), coordinated operations (unified control with separate execution channels), and adaptive operations (mutual adaptation through intelligent interfaces). Each architecture addresses different connectivity scenarios and integration requirements for both sporadic and persistent satellite constellations. The proposed architectures are evaluated against challenges spanning infrastructure and architecture, interoperability and standardization, integrated management, operational dynamics, and technology maturation and deployment. Validation through simulation demonstrates significant performance improvements, with task completion rates improving by 17.87% to 44.02% and data throughput gains of 25.09% to 93.62% compared to traditional approaches. The CMS framework establishes a resilient operational standard for future 6G networks, offering practical solutions to bridge the current divide between satellite and terrestrial network operations. Full article