Search Results (39)

Regional shrinkage, driven by declining birth rates, an aging population, and population concentration in the capital region, has become an increasingly serious issue in South Korea, threatening the long-term sustainability of local communities. Among various factors, youth out-migration is a key driver, undermining the economic resilience and vitality of local areas. This study aims to predict youth population trends across 229 municipalities by incorporating diverse regional socioeconomic factors and providing a foundation for policy implementation to mitigate demographic disparities. To this end, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, based on a direct approach that independently forecasts each future time point, was employed. The model was trained using the youth population data from 2003 to 2022 and socioeconomic variables, including employment, education, housing, and infrastructure. The results reveal a persistent nationwide decline in the youth population, with significantly sharper decreases in local areas than in the capital region. These findings underscore the deepening spatial imbalance and highlight the urgent need for region-specific demographic policies to address the accelerating risk of regional population decline. Full article

Italy and Greece share many structural and economic similarities, including high regional disparities and marked asymmetries between dynamic metropolitan areas and structurally weaker regions. Both countries also face high public debt and an aging population, conditions worsened by recent economic crises. These challenges have significant implications for sustainability, as economic hardship often leads to inefficient resource use, underinvestment in green infrastructure, and socially unsustainable outcomes. Promoting socio-economic and environmental sustainability thus requires addressing territorial inequalities through integrated policies that balance growth, equity, and ecological responsibility. This study introduces a spatiotemporal application of the Peña Distance (DP2) method, allowing for a dynamic and multidimensional analysis of socio-economic deprivation at the NUTS 1 level. The results confirm persistent disadvantages in remote Greek regions and Southern Italy, where youth outmigration and limited development opportunities are prevalent. These regions are affected by multiple, interconnected forms of vulnerability that compromise their prospects for long-term sustainable development, underlining the need for timely and coordinated interventions across different policy levels. Full article

Despite longstanding concerns about regional inequalities in both national and EU policy, the concept of ‘left-behindness’ has gained prominence in public and political discourse due to widening social and spatial disparities. A defining characteristic of left-behind areas is outmigration, ageing, and depopulation, yet the impact of incoming mobility remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, this article explores the role of international immigration in sustaining local economies in two left-behind border regions of Spain—Ribagorza (Huesca) and Sayago (Zamora). Grounded in the migration-development nexus, it argues that mobility can drive economic, social, and demographic revitalization, fostering sustainability and strengthening the social fabric of these rural communities. This research identified the case study areas based on their low local human development index, which integrates quantitative demographic, social, and economic indicators. It further examines migration dynamics through a qualitative approach, gathering insights via in-depth interviews. The paper analyses how the borderland conditions in those left-behind areas of Ribagorza and Sayago have influenced their demographic dynamics, with a particular focus on recent migration trends. It also examines the influence of local governance in shaping economic and social initiatives, such as entrepreneurship and immigration policies. The comparative analysis of Ribagorza and Sayago underscores the interplay between economy, migration, and local governance in shaping rural development in border left-behind areas. Ribagorza’s stronger governance structures, economic diversification, and higher immigrant integration have contributed to modest population stabilization. Sayago, despite its border advantages and cross-border labour exchanges, struggles with weaker governance, limited economic opportunities, and a rapidly ageing population. Full article

This comparative study examines how geographic isolation and out-migrant motivations shape support systems in two aging, depopulated rural areas of Japan: Shimogo Town and Nanmoku Village. Challenging the prevailing policies’ focus on internal migration as the primary solution for regional revitalization, we highlight the “relationship population”—a specific group of out-migrated family members who maintain ties to their hometowns—and their diverse contributions to rural sustainability. We employed a mixed-methods approach, including quantitative analyses of aging-oriented household survey questionnaires (using multiple correspondence analysis, multinomial logistic regression, k-means, and two-step cluster analysis) and qualitative analyses of interviews with local government officials and residents (case studies in Nanmoku). Our analysis reveals contrasting support patterns: Shimogo exhibits a localized system driven by resident needs, while Nanmoku employs a strategic approach balancing practical support and community engagement. These findings underscore the limitations of one-size-fits-all migration policies and indicate the need for strategies tailored to the local characteristics of each community. By recognizing the diverse motivations behind hometown visits and the contributions to both residents and communities from the “relationship population”, this research advocates shifting the focus from promoting migration to the interplay of family ties, local support systems, and the agency of residents and out-migrated families. This perspective offers actionable insights for policymakers, local leaders, and researchers working on rural revitalization. Full article

Migrant relocation (MR) is an important way to solve social and ecological problems. Current studies have mainly used the sample survey method to analyze the social and economic benefits of migrant relocation from a micro perspective but less from a global perspective to analyze the impact of migrant relocation on cropland abandonment (CA). Therefore, in order to balance regional cropland utilization and poverty alleviation, this paper aimed to analyze the impact of a MR program on cropland abandonment (CA) on a macro scale. The results showed that during 2011–2020, the relocation scale and resettlement scale of the MR program in Pingli County were 10.691 km² and 4.535 km², respectively. MR programs can be divided into three types, namely, out-migration, in-migration, and vacant, accounting for 67.98%, 30.90%, and 1.12%, respectively. The amount of CA is 35.910 km². There was a threshold effect of the impact of MR on CA. Specifically, when MR ≤ 0 or MR > 0.258%, it has an inhibitory role on CA; when 0 < MR ≤ 0.258%, it promotes the occurrence of CA. Therefore, policy makers need to accurately assess the current situation of villages and adopt a phased and regional strategy to avoid the CA caused by large-scale relocation. These findings not only contribute to the sustainable use of cropland in the study area but also have significant implications for effective governance and poverty eradication in other poor and ecologically fragile regions around the world, such as Africa and Brazil. Full article

In recent years, population aging has started to profoundly affect the sustainable development of human society. Compared to developed countries, China faces a more pronounced challenge of “aging before affluence”. Based on data from China’s 5–7th national censuses, we selected relevant indicators such as the population aging rate and aging population growth rate to explore the multi-scale spatiotemporal evolution of population aging in the Bohai Rim Region during 2000–2020. On this basis, we classified the types of regional population aging. Representative indicators from two dimensions—population and socio-economic factors—were selected to analyze the driving factors of population aging using the Geodetector method. The results show that the degree of population aging exhibited a deepening trend in the Bohai Rim Region during 2000–2020, with its spatial clustering characteristics becoming increasingly pronounced. However, spatial clustering at the district and county scales was weaker than that at the prefectural scale. Overall, population aging exhibits a pattern whereby the eastern regions, centered on the Liaodong Peninsula and Jiaodong Peninsula, experience deeper levels of aging compared to the western regions. The growth rate of the aging population followed a declining trend across administrative divisions, in the order of urban districts, county-level cities, counties, and autonomous counties. At the prefectural, district, and county scales, demographic and socio-economic factors demonstrated significant influences, with population factors showing higher q-values than socio-economic factors. There are significant spillover effects of demographic and socio-economic factors on population aging in the BRR, with fertility, education, and urbanization being key drivers. Policy recommendations should focus on addressing regional disparities, with aging cities needing expanded care services and regions affected by out-migration requiring community-based care and better resource integration. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic, a significant public health emergency, has underscored the criticality of jobs–housing proximity. Static statistical research, however, struggles to uncover the mechanisms underlying jobs–housing balance, providing limited guidance for urban management. This paper adopts the concept of jobs–housing dynamic balance, analyzing the trends in jobs–housing balance in the metropolitan development area of Wuhan in the early and later period of the pandemic from the perspective of individual jobs–housing migration. Using mobile phone signaling data, we identified a stable population of 161,698 residents in June 2019, June 2021, and June 2023, and calculated jobs–housing synchronization and migration impact indices across seven regions. The study finds the following: (1) there is a pronounced misalignment of jobs–housing in the new cities of Wuhan’s suburbs, with clear asynchronous in-migration and out-migration; (2) COVID-19 initially led to a unidirectional exodus of the local population for job purposes, significantly contributing to regional jobs–housing imbalance, followed by a partial rebound in the later stages; and (3) the stability of jobs–housing balance in suburban new cities lacking policy support and comprehensive urban functions is worse, primarily due to insufficient employment resilience and the out-migration of the employed population. This paper puts forward a set of recommendations for the sustainable development of suburban new cities. It offers insights into the theoretical advancement of jobs–housing balance and the dynamic, refined transformation of urban studies, enhancing urban managers’ understanding of human–place interactions and new city construction. Full article

China has fully become an aging society, and the scientific response to population aging has become a major task that the country must face in the future. Research on population aging in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) can provide a scientific basis for future population management in the CCUA. This paper applies spatial autocorrelation, geodetection, and other methods to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern of population aging and its driving factors in the CCUA from 2000 to 2020, taking districts (counties) as the basic unit and combining them with the spatial structure of the urban agglomeration. The results show that: ① in the time dimension, the population aging in CCUA has gone through the evolution process of “mild–moderate–heavy”; in the spatial dimension, the influence of the urban agglomeration’s development planning axes on the spatial differentiation of the aging population has become more and more prominent. ② The aging level has a strong spatial correlation, and with time, the spatial correlation has changed from weak to strong, and the spatial difference has increased. The dual core city shows a typical spatial pattern of a decreasing aging level in the core area and an increasing aging level in the peripheral area, and the heavily aging area is spreading along the axis. ③ The overall aging speed is high, and the aging speeds of the core cities and node cities are lower than those of other regions. There is a clearer positive correlation between the aging level and the speed of aging, showing the characteristic of “the older the faster”. ④ Endogenous factors such as the aging level and fertility level at the beginning of the period have a significant determining power on the change in the aging level, while exogenous factors such as the in-migration rate and the out-migration rate have a persistent determining power on the urban agglomerations and key areas (core cities, central cities, main axes of development, city belts, and dense urban areas). Full article

Depopulation is caused by low fertility rates and out-migration, and it applies to countries, regions and smaller areas. Rural depopulation is defined as a sharp population decline that falls well below an adequate population size and indicates that an area has lost its demographic reproductive capacity. This paper discusses the socioeconomic and territorial aspects of rural depopulation, attempting to do justice to the spatial dimensions of the phenomenon. Greece exhibits all the symptoms of demographic transition, leading to labour shortages, declining economic productivity, and increasing demands on the health and welfare system. The study on rural depopulation in Greece focuses on the changes and dynamics observed at the municipal and regional levels. A typology has been developed to identify rural communities in Greece. The main source of demographic data for our study is the Greek censuses (1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021). Demographic and socioeconomic trends in Greece are interlinked and show different regional and local dynamics. Rural depopulation is closely related to the study of (international and internal) migration, even though the latter does not provide a permanent solution to depopulation. An empirical analysis has shown that there is a need to revitalise rural areas through socioeconomic improvements, infrastructure investments, and policies that directly impact rural communities. Full article

Throughout the last decades, engaging with cultural landscapes has been a scientific, social, ethical, political, and economic imperative that calls for novel theoretical approaches, effective strategies and, above all, participatory action. Facing this multifarious challenge, academic disciplines have to redefine their traditional methods and aims, and demonstrate an openness towards new and risky paths of scientific pursuits. The present paper arose from interdisciplinary cooperation between the humanities and social sciences with the main objective to explore the potential of cultural landscapes as resources for social innovation in rural regions, addressing issues such as out-migration of original inhabitants, unemployment, and an overaging population. Based on an overview of landscape semantics and theoretical approaches, the paper first analyzes (cultural) landscape and social innovation as applied concepts. In a second step, both disciplinary angles mingle into a joint approach. Moving from methodologies to challenges, the authors discuss the Social Grid Model, which allows for an integrated analysis of social networks, institutions, and cognitive frames. They also delve into the Structured Democratic Dialogue as a tool for the revitalization of ‘active’ and ‘inactive’ cultural landscapes by reinforcing the role of local communities. Finally, the authors investigate how such novel ideas for the promotion of tangible and intangible heritage in rural habitats can be employed by example of two intervention regions in Greece (Koumasa) and the People’s Republic of China (Honghe Hani Rice Terraces), and as part of an orchestrated collective action. Full article

Many European countries have faced the process of urban shrinkage in recent decades. Due to the various theoretical aspects of urban shrinkage, there are numerous approaches to the interpretation of this process. The most widely accepted of these refers to the demographic component as the starting point for defining this phenomenon, with the decline of the total population as the main indicator. The demographic shrinkage of cities in Serbia is a process that has been in place since the 1960s, with the dynamics of spatial-demographic and socioeconomic transformation during the post-socialist transition having exacerbated urban shrinkage. As a result, over 80% of urban settlements are affected by it. This paper identifies the trajectory and spatio-temporal patterns of the intensity and dynamics of urban shrinkage for the period from 1961 to 2022. The aim of this work is to show the diversity of shrinking cities and to explore the driving forces behind this process in Serbia. In this study, we conducted an analysis of population trends in 167 urban settlements in Serbia. Further analysis included the identification of contrasting spatio-temporal and demographic dynamic patterns characterized by either natural losses or out-migration. Due to the complex urban trajectories, a typology was created that distinguishes four different types of shrinking cities: continuously shrinking cities, episodically shrinking cities, recently shrinking cities, and resurgent cities. The results are important to achieving a better understanding of how patterns of local population trends change over time and space. The result will thus be a step towards explaining the main demographic factors causing population change and inter- and intra-regional differences between shrinking cities in Serbia, as well as towards examining urban renewal opportunities in the future. Full article

Remittances are essential to the sustainability of economies in mountainous regions that face massive labour migration due to limited income generation and employment opportunities. In 2021, the share of remittances in GDP in the top 10 mountainous economies in the world was over 20%. Nonetheless, most are characterised by relatively lower GDP per capita and high poverty levels. Drawing a comparison with other mountainous areas, Phuthaditjhaba, an emerging mountainous city of South Africa on the border with Lesotho, faces similar out-migration and inferior socio-economic parameters. A global systematic literature review on the impact of remittances on livelihoods, specifically targeting mountainous areas, is missing. We, therefore, interrogate the role that remittances can play in Phuthaditjhaba. To inform our intended research, we seek to draw lessons from evidence on how migration and remittances affect mountainous communities globally. Accordingly, we carry out a systematic literature review (SLR) based on an updated Preferred Reporting Item for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 statement supported by bibliometric (co-word) analysis (BA) in VOSViewer. We collected data from the Scopus and Dimensions websites and drew 165 publications, of which only 88 were included after exclusion and inclusion assessments. The PRISMA results show that Mountain Research and Development, Russell King, and Nepal are the most productive and cited journal, the most productive and cited author, and the most researched country, respectively. The bibliometric analysis on keyword co-occurrences revealed that women, agriculture, labour migration, land management, forest, and poverty are the research hotspots. In light of these findings, we proffer important recommendations for future researchers and policymakers and identify thematic research areas for Phuthaditjhaba. Full article

According to the academic debate, the populist radical right is particularly successful in regions that have been left behind economically or culturally. Although civic engagement in networks of civil society, a specific form of social capital, seems important, its influence remains ambiguous. In contrast, regional out-migration as a social dimension of being left behind receives limited attention despite the relevance of internal migration to political geography. This study investigates two theoretically possible models to clarify the relationships between regional out-migration, civic engagement, and their impacts on voting for the populist radical right. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and official regional statistics, logistic multilevel analyses are conducted for Germany and the election of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) in the 2017 federal election. The key finding of the cross-sectional analysis is that regional out-migration is a condition that moderates the relationship between civic participation and the election of the AfD. In general, civically involved individuals support established democratic parties, but in regions with high out-migration, they tend to vote for the populist radical right. However, there is no empirical evidence that regional out-migration contributes to the election of the AfD by reducing civic engagement and being mediated by it. Full article

This paper investigates the potential link between changes in NASA’s Black Marble VIIRS/NPP Gap-Filled Lunar BRDF-Adjusted Nighttime Lights Daily L3 Global 500 m Linear Lat Lon Grid (VNP46A2) nighttime lights product (NTL) and human dynamics, particularly population counts and changes at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We conducted analyses in four case studies at varying resolutions to explore the relationship of NTL data for population studies, including demographic research, disaster mitigation and adaptation planning, and infrastructure development. The analyses were conducted using different administrative geographies, including a refugee camp, a subnational region, and a country. We compared changes in population counts, density, migration, and displacement against changes in daily, weekly, monthly, and annual NTL values. Our case study results demonstrate that out-migration does not always lead to a decrease in NTL. We found that rural population decline did not correspond to a decrease in NTL. Despite significant out-migration in many rural areas NTL remained largely unchanged. NTL provided essential information on infrastructure damage in the short-term aftermath of this disaster; however, NTL alone was not correlated to the location of displaced individuals. Through news reports, we were able to corroborate the NTL changes to downtimes of the electrical systems. Monthly NTL averages were highly correlated to population counts, but a pixel-level analysis showed that the changes in NTL were primarily attributed to economic diversification. In summary, NTL is the product of several factors including demographic, environmental, economic, and political forces that shape electricity infrastructure, and we suggest that NTL data must first be parameterized with ancillary ground-level information in order to be effectively applied to population models. Full article

Piscine orthoreovirus genotype 1 (PRV-1) is an endemic virus to the Northeastern Pacific that infects both wild and farmed salmon. To better understand PRV-1 prevalence and transmission pathways in the region, we targeted out-migrating juvenile Pacific Salmon in the Strait of Georgia and Johnstone Strait in British Columbia, Canada, for PRV-1 molecular screening with an emphasis on Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon. A total of 4031 individuals were screened for PRV-1 and we identified an overall virus prevalence of 3.5% from 2011 to 2020. PRV-1 was absent in enhancement facilities and freshwater catchments and predominately found in the marine environment. The detection of PRV-1 varied greatly between species, year and stock of origin, but cumulatively identified that life history and migratory behaviors likely influenced viral prevalence. Specifically, Chinook salmon, which demonstrate long residence time in the Strait of Georgia relative to other species, had the highest PRV-1 prevalence in this study (7.4%). Varying stock composition and regional detection between year classes within the Strait of Georgia further indicated that the sources for Chinook infection were highly variable between years. These findings enhance our understanding for PRV-1 transmission in the region and more generally between/within salmon species. Full article