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Keywords = preference valuation

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27 pages, 1062 KB  
Article
Uncovering Seasonal Heterogeneity in Forest Ecosystem Valuation: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis with Experimental Insights
by Chulhyun Jeon and Danny Campbell
Forests 2025, 16(10), 1508; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16101508 - 24 Sep 2025
Viewed by 131
Abstract
Seasonal variation not only influences the ecological functioning of forest ecosystems but also alters the benefits people derive from them, ranging from physical to psychological restoration. Ignoring such variation in valuation risks, thereby producing seasonally biased and unreliable estimates, constitutes an issue that [...] Read more.
Seasonal variation not only influences the ecological functioning of forest ecosystems but also alters the benefits people derive from them, ranging from physical to psychological restoration. Ignoring such variation in valuation risks, thereby producing seasonally biased and unreliable estimates, constitutes an issue that previous valuation studies have largely overlooked. This study investigates the extent of seasonal bias in willingness to pay (WTP) for forest ecosystem services using a meta-dataset of 476 observations from Korea. Applying pooled, weighted, and robust mixed-effects models, we uncovered substantial seasonal heterogeneity through our analysis: WTP increases by 67% in autumn but declines by 18% and 65% in the summer and winter, respectively. The robust mixed-effects model provided the best empirical fit, highlighting the methodological value of explicitly modeling temporal effects in meta-regression. These results reflect seasonally differentiated engagement with forests and suggest that individuals implicitly recognize the temporal value of ecosystem services. Nevertheless, limitations remain, particularly the heterogeneity of research designs, survey methods, and elicitation formats, which may introduce variability and potential bias. Therefore, while seasonal differences are statistically significant, the results should be interpreted with caution. Extrapolating annual values from single-season data risks systematic distortion, especially when stated preference methods are used. Beyond methodological implications, the findings also underscore a broader point: seasonal rhythms shape not only ecosystem dynamics but also human well-being. Accurately valuing these shifting benefits is essential for making credible economic assessments and sustaining long-term reciprocity between people and nature. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Research on Forest Ecosystem Services)
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20 pages, 2078 KB  
Article
Valuing Urban Green Spaces: A Decade of Access and Residents’ Willingness to Pay in Shanghai
by Huilin Liang, Lin Zhu, Hao Liu, Qi Yan and Yuqi Gu
Land 2025, 14(9), 1835; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14091835 - 8 Sep 2025
Viewed by 334
Abstract
This study aims to investigate residents’ marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for accessible urban green spaces (UGSs) in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021, using a comprehensive UGS accessibility (UGSA) indicator based on an improved nSFCA method. The UGSA indicator is incorporated into a [...] Read more.
This study aims to investigate residents’ marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for accessible urban green spaces (UGSs) in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021, using a comprehensive UGS accessibility (UGSA) indicator based on an improved nSFCA method. The UGSA indicator is incorporated into a hedonic pricing model, and multiple global regressions with multilevel data structures are employed to identify a suitable and accurate estimation strategy to determine the impact of UGSA on housing prices. The results show that WTP for UGSA varies significantly across categories and years, as well as between homebuyers and renters, with homebuyers having a much higher WTP compared to renters. Furthermore, neighborhood UGSA is generally more preferred than utmost UGSA. By differentiating UGSA into “neighborhood” and “utmost” levels and conducting a decade-long longitudinal analysis of both homebuyers and renters, this study contributes to two key academic debates: the spatial scaling of amenity valuation and the role of property rights in the capitalization of public goods. Employing a robust spatial econometric framework, our research provides novel insights into these complex dynamics within a hyper-dense urban context. The research contributes to the understanding of the economic value of UGSA by providing valuable insights for urban planning, policy-making, and real estate development, highlighting the importance of considering the spatial, temporal, and heterogeneous aspects of UGSA when estimating its economic value. Full article
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26 pages, 3206 KB  
Article
User Psychological Perception and Pricing Mechanism of AI Large Language Model
by Xu Yan, Yiting Hu, Jianhua Zhu and Xiaodong Yang
J. Theor. Appl. Electron. Commer. Res. 2025, 20(3), 241; https://doi.org/10.3390/jtaer20030241 - 4 Sep 2025
Viewed by 565
Abstract
With the rapid growth of user demand for large language models (LLMs) in their work, the application market is driving intense competition among large language model providers (LLMPs). Users have different preferences and psychological perceptions towards the charging models of different LLMPs. LLMPs [...] Read more.
With the rapid growth of user demand for large language models (LLMs) in their work, the application market is driving intense competition among large language model providers (LLMPs). Users have different preferences and psychological perceptions towards the charging models of different LLMPs. LLMPs with different intelligence levels must design pricing strategies based on diverse user characteristics. To investigate the impact of user heterogeneity on the strategic pricing of competing LLMPs, this paper establishes a competitive model with two providers, comprising a highly intelligent initial LLM provider and a follower provider. Both providers can independently decide to adopt either a subscription model or a pay-per-use model, resulting in four pricing mode combinations (dual subscription SS, subscription-pay-per-use SD, pay-per-use-subscription DS, dual pay-per-use DD). The study shows that when the pay-per-use model is adopted, the user’s psychological perception of the “tick-tock effect” reduces the provider’s service price and profit, as the perceived psychological cost lowers the user’s valuation of the product, thereby decreasing demand. Furthermore, we analyze the equilibrium strategies for pricing mode selection by the two providers. The results indicate that the subscription model is not always advantageous for providers. Both providers will only choose to adopt the subscription model when both user usage frequency and perceived psychological cost are high. Conversely, when both user usage frequency and perceived psychological cost are low, the two providers will not simultaneously adopt the subscription model. Interestingly, as the product intelligence levels of the two providers converge, their choices of pricing modes are also more inclined to diverge. These insights guide LLMPs to strategically adjust their pricing models based on user behavioral patterns to maximize profitability in the competitive AI market. Full article
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16 pages, 273 KB  
Article
Economic Valuation of Geosystem Services in Agricultural Products: A Small-Sample Pilot Study on Rotella Apple and Moscatello Wine
by Barbara Cavalletti, Fedra Gianoglio, Maria Rocca and Pietro Marescotti
Land 2025, 14(9), 1718; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14091718 - 25 Aug 2025
Viewed by 719
Abstract
Soils are critical natural resources, yet their abiotic contributions to ecosystem services remain largely unexplored in valuation studies. This pilot study represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first attempt to assess the perceived value of geosystem services (GSs) from a consumer [...] Read more.
Soils are critical natural resources, yet their abiotic contributions to ecosystem services remain largely unexplored in valuation studies. This pilot study represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first attempt to assess the perceived value of geosystem services (GSs) from a consumer perspective. Using a discrete choice experiment with 200 respondents, we evaluated preferences for Rotella apples and Moscatello wine through mixed multinomial logit and latent class models. Results show that attributes related to soil use and soil control were consistently significant drivers of consumer utility (e.g., odds ratios of 9.38 and 5.78 for Moscatello wine and 8.46 and 5.56 for Rotella apples, respectively; p < 0.01). These attributes align more closely with the concept of a “geological fingerprint” than with existing geographical labeling schemes such as the Protected Designation of Origin. Price effects were statistically insignificant, indicating virtually no influence on choices. Both estimated models revealed preference heterogeneity and a substantial number of no-buy responses. This suggests both limited consumer familiarity with GS concepts and a limitation of our attribute descriptions, which likely failed to convey information needed for effective purchasing decisions. This study is exploratory and limited by its convenience sample, imperfect price specification, and inability to estimate willingness-to-pay measures. Nevertheless, it provides empirical support for introducing geological footprint labeling and highlights the need for improved consumer information, policy tools, and public campaigns to promote recognition and sustainable management of geodiversity in agriculture. Full article
21 pages, 4977 KB  
Article
Assessing the Perception and Value of Marine Biodiversity and Taxonomy Research by the Recreational Diving Tourism Industry in Thailand
by Wan Chantavilasvong, Pin Udomcharoenchaikit and Rahul Mehrotra
Reg. Sci. Environ. Econ. 2025, 2(3), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/rsee2030026 - 25 Aug 2025
Viewed by 1983
Abstract
The 21st century has seen marine tourism in Southeast Asia transform in response to the rapid growth of SCUBA diving and snorkeling activities in the natural environment. However, despite this level of integration between recreation and the natural environment, few assessments have ever [...] Read more.
The 21st century has seen marine tourism in Southeast Asia transform in response to the rapid growth of SCUBA diving and snorkeling activities in the natural environment. However, despite this level of integration between recreation and the natural environment, few assessments have ever been conducted on the biodiversity or ecosystem values and experiences of the SCUBA diving community. Therefore, we explored the awareness, preferences and priorities of this community, with a particular emphasis on investigating the role of biodiversity documentation and species discoveries in motivating recreational diving. By conducting surveys of 366 recreational divers from Thailand, we were able to identify proportional priorities, finding greater valuation towards overall ecosystem esthetics than megafauna, with species-specific dive experiences being a niche but present interest. We also investigated diver priorities based on recently described or discovered marine fauna in Thai waters, focusing on five species of hard and soft coral, seven species of sea slug, and two species of shark. Of these, sea slug species were the most recognized and garnered the greatest potential economic value, likely due to their popularity with photographers. The results of this multidisciplinary investigation highlight the economic value of taxonomy and biodiversity research to the recreational SCUBA community. Full article
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17 pages, 418 KB  
Article
Willingness to Pay for Active Mobility Infrastructure in a Thai University: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of User Preferences and Policy Implications
by Ratthaphong Meesit, Shongwut Puntoomjinda, Sumethee Sontikul, Supattra Arunnapa, Multazam Hutabarat and Preeda Chaturabong
Urban Sci. 2025, 9(8), 322; https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9080322 - 16 Aug 2025
Viewed by 531
Abstract
This research examines road users’ willingness to pay for enhanced active mobility infrastructure at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL), a suburban university campus in Bangkok, Thailand. The study addresses the need for sustainable transportation solutions in middle-income urban environments by analyzing [...] Read more.
This research examines road users’ willingness to pay for enhanced active mobility infrastructure at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL), a suburban university campus in Bangkok, Thailand. The study addresses the need for sustainable transportation solutions in middle-income urban environments by analyzing factors that influence walking and cycling adoption among university community members. The research employed a comprehensive mixed-methods framework combining qualitative SWOT analysis, a stated preference survey of 400 participants, and regularized logistic regression modeling with cross-validation. The analysis revealed that specific infrastructure improvements significantly increase the likelihood of active mobility adoption. Rest areas demonstrated the strongest positive association (OR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.08–4.27, p = 0.029), followed by CCTV security systems (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 0.98–3.65, p = 0.047), and improved public transport connectivity (OR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.42–5.68, p = 0.003). Demographic analysis uncovered notable resistance patterns, with male participants (OR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.26–0.89, p = 0.020) and higher-income individuals showing reduced willingness to transition from motorized transportation. Using the Contingent Valuation Method with proper bias mitigation strategies, the study quantified potential behavioral changes, projecting a 12–18 min daily increase in active mobility engagement. This enhancement would generate measurable health benefits valued at 2840–4260 THB per person annually using WHO-HEAT methodology. The research contributes valuable insights to the limited body of active mobility literature from Southeast Asian suburban contexts, providing a replicable framework for similar investigations. Full article
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15 pages, 3377 KB  
Article
Assessing Consumer Valuation of Sustainability Certification in Seafood Products: Insight from a Discrete Choice Experiment of Korean Blue Food Market
by Dong-Hun Go and Sangchoul Yi
Foods 2025, 14(16), 2821; https://doi.org/10.3390/foods14162821 - 14 Aug 2025
Viewed by 469
Abstract
This study utilizes a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to estimate consumer valuation of sustainable aquaculture certification for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), one of the most important imported seafood products in South Korea. This experiment investigates consumer preferences across five product attributes: [...] Read more.
This study utilizes a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to estimate consumer valuation of sustainable aquaculture certification for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), one of the most important imported seafood products in South Korea. This experiment investigates consumer preferences across five product attributes: country of origin, product type, preparation method, sustainability certification, and price. Data were collected through an online survey administered by a professional research firm that yielded 24,000 valid choice observations from 1000 respondents. Conditional logit estimates revealed that all specified attributes significantly influenced consumer choices among seafood alternatives. Among the key product attributes, sustainability certification has emerged as the most influential factor affecting consumer decisions. The marginal willingness to pay for sustainably certified aquaculture is estimated to be USD 1.33 per 100 g. These findings provide valuable insights for seafood marketers and policymakers who seek to promote sustainable aquaculture in South Korea. Full article
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20 pages, 1818 KB  
Article
Sustainability Awareness, Price Sensitivity, and Willingness to Pay for Eco-Friendly Packaging: A Discrete Choice and Valuation Study in the Saudi Retail Sector
by Sultan Alaswad Alenazi
Sustainability 2025, 17(16), 7287; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167287 - 12 Aug 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1065
Abstract
The increasing environmental concerns of plastic waste have encouraged more interest in environmentally friendly packaging, but consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for green alternatives in emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia is not fully explored. This research explores the relationship between awareness of [...] Read more.
The increasing environmental concerns of plastic waste have encouraged more interest in environmentally friendly packaging, but consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for green alternatives in emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia is not fully explored. This research explores the relationship between awareness of sustainability and price sensitivity in determining WTP for green packaging in the Saudi retail market. The study utilizing a mixed method included both a Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) and a Discrete Choice Modeling (DCM). In it, data was gathered and analyzed using a sample of 424 urban consumers in Saudi Arabia’s major cities. The findings of OLS regression indicated awareness of sustainability had a significant, positive effect on WTP, whereas price sensitivity had a negative effect. There was a marginal interaction effect indicating that awareness could overcome price aversion. Logistic regression supported awareness as a dominant factor in binary product choice, although price sensitivity was not significant in the said model. The multinomial logit model also showed that the type of package, environmental labels (more so the “100% recyclable” type), and price had significant effects on consumer preferences. These results indicate that there is acceptance of sustainable packaging by consumers in Saudi Arabia if the product is communicated effectively and priced competitively. Full article
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21 pages, 872 KB  
Article
Willingness to Pay for Station Access Transport: A Mixed Logit Model with Heterogeneous Travel Time Valuation
by Varameth Vichiensan, Vasinee Wasuntarasook, Sathita Malaitham, Atsushi Fukuda and Wiroj Rujopakarn
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6715; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156715 - 23 Jul 2025
Viewed by 1033
Abstract
This study estimates a willingness-to-pay (WTP) space mixed logit model to evaluate user valuations of travel time, safety, and comfort attributes associated with common access modes in Bangkok, including walking, motorcycle taxis, and localized minibuses. The model accounts for preference heterogeneity by specifying [...] Read more.
This study estimates a willingness-to-pay (WTP) space mixed logit model to evaluate user valuations of travel time, safety, and comfort attributes associated with common access modes in Bangkok, including walking, motorcycle taxis, and localized minibuses. The model accounts for preference heterogeneity by specifying random parameters for travel time. Results indicate that users—exhibiting substantial variation in preferences—place higher value on reducing motorcycle taxi travel time, particularly in time-constrained contexts such as peak-hour commuting, whereas walking is more acceptable in less pressured settings. Safety and comfort attributes—such as helmet availability, smooth pavement, and seating—significantly influence access mode choice. Notably, the WTP for helmet availability is estimated at THB 8.04 per trip, equivalent to approximately 40% of the typical fare for station access, underscoring the importance of safety provision. Women exhibit stronger preferences for motorized access modes, reflecting heightened sensitivity to environmental and social conditions. This study represents one of the first applications of WTP-space modeling for valuing informal station access transport in Southeast Asia, offering context-specific and segment-level estimates. These findings support targeted interventions—including differentiated pricing, safety regulations, and service quality enhancements—to strengthen first-/last-mile connectivity. The results provide policy-relevant evidence to advance equitable and sustainable transport, particularly in rapidly urbanizing contexts aligned with SDG 11.2. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Transport and Land Use for a Sustainable Future)
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15 pages, 403 KB  
Article
Estimating the Value of Recreation and Ecotourism Using Meta-Regression Analysis
by Namhee Kim and Hyun No Kim
Land 2025, 14(7), 1504; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14071504 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 465
Abstract
Estimating the economic value of recreation and ecotourism is essential for sustainable ecosystem management and informed environmental policymaking. However, values derived from individual studies often vary because of subjective preferences and contextual variability, making it challenging to obtain generalizable estimates. To address this [...] Read more.
Estimating the economic value of recreation and ecotourism is essential for sustainable ecosystem management and informed environmental policymaking. However, values derived from individual studies often vary because of subjective preferences and contextual variability, making it challenging to obtain generalizable estimates. To address this issue, this study employed a meta-regression analysis synthesizing 179 willingness-to-pay (WTP) observations obtained from 48 individual valuation studies conducted across various recreational and ecotourism sites in the Republic of Korea. Focusing specifically on national parks, which are prominent providers of cultural ecosystem services, we examined how site characteristics, study design factors, and valuation methodologies influenced estimated WTP values. Outliers were systematically identified and treated using statistical methods, with the random-effects model utilizing studentized residuals yielding the most robust results. Our findings revealed that national parks and studies employing the travel cost method (TCM) were associated with significantly higher WTP values. By applying the developed meta-regression model, we estimated that the total value of recreational and ecotourism services provided by national parks in the Republic of Korea was approximately USD 865.0 million in 2020. These results highlight the effectiveness of meta-regression analysis in synthesizing heterogeneous valuation studies, facilitating more accurate benefit transfers, and offering empirical insights to guide ecosystem service policy and management decisions. Full article
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20 pages, 298 KB  
Article
Beyond Conventional: Italian Consumer Perceptions, Purchasing Habits, and Willingness to Pay for Ancient Grain Pasta
by Concetta Nazzaro, Anna Uliano and Marcello Stanco
Nutrients 2025, 17(14), 2298; https://doi.org/10.3390/nu17142298 - 11 Jul 2025
Viewed by 640
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Ancient grains are increasingly recognized for their nutritional value, environmental sustainability, and connection to traditional agriculture. This study examines Italian consumers’ awareness, purchasing habits, and willingness to pay (WTP) for ancient grain pasta, focusing on the influence of product origin, price, and [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Ancient grains are increasingly recognized for their nutritional value, environmental sustainability, and connection to traditional agriculture. This study examines Italian consumers’ awareness, purchasing habits, and willingness to pay (WTP) for ancient grain pasta, focusing on the influence of product origin, price, and flour type on preferences. Methods: An online survey was conducted with 3020 Italian household grocery shoppers. Descriptive statistics assessed awareness and purchasing behavior, while conjoint analysis (CA) evaluated the relative importance of key product attributes (origin, price, and flour type) in pasta choices. The sample was segmented based on consumer knowledge of ancient grains. Results: A significant portion of respondents reported familiarity with ancient grains, perceiving them as “less refined” and “more digestible”; pasta emerged as the most purchased product. CA results indicated product origin as the most influential factor, followed by price, with flour type having comparatively lower influence. Notably, consumers more familiar with ancient grains showed a slight preference for ancient flour types and were less sensitive to price. Conclusions: While origin and price are primary drivers for pasta choices, knowledgeable consumers show greater valuation for flour type and accept higher prices. These findings provide strategic insights for stakeholders seeking to promote traditional, sustainable agri-food products through targeted marketing and transparent value communication. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Future Prospects for Sustaining a Healthier Food System)
18 pages, 3919 KB  
Article
Spatial Distribution of Cultural Ecosystem Services in Rural Landscapes Using PGIS and SolVES
by Yasin Yaman and Seda Örücü
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6388; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146388 - 11 Jul 2025
Viewed by 624
Abstract
Cultural ecosystem services (CES) play a vital role in rural well-being, yet their spatial patterns and local perceptions remain underexplored in many regions, including Türkiye. This study aims to assess the social values of CES in rural landscapes by focusing on the Şarkikaraağaç [...] Read more.
Cultural ecosystem services (CES) play a vital role in rural well-being, yet their spatial patterns and local perceptions remain underexplored in many regions, including Türkiye. This study aims to assess the social values of CES in rural landscapes by focusing on the Şarkikaraağaç and Yenişarbademli districts of Isparta Province. Using Participatory Geographic Information Systems (PGIS) and the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) models, we collected and analyzed spatial data from 836 community surveys, mapping 3771 CES value points. Sentinel-2A imagery and derived indices (NDVI, NDWI, SAVI, NDBI) were used to classify landscape infrastructures into green, blue, yellow, and grey categories. The results show that aesthetic and recreational services were most highly valued, followed by biodiversity, spiritual, and therapeutic values. Chi-square and Kruskal–Wallis tests revealed significant demographic and spatial variation in CES preferences, while Principal Component Analysis highlighted two key dimensions of value perception. MaxEnt-based modeling within SolVES confirmed the spatial distribution of CES with high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.93). Our findings underscore the importance of integrating CES into sustainable land-use planning and suggest that infrastructure type and proximity to natural features significantly influence CES valuation in rural settings. Full article
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21 pages, 289 KB  
Article
The Economic Value of the Saltmarsh Habitat in the UK Using Benefit Transfer: A Methodology-Consistent Meta-Analysis
by Sara Kaffashi
Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 5858; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135858 - 25 Jun 2025
Viewed by 425
Abstract
This study presents a comprehensive economic valuation of UK saltmarsh habitats, utilising a benefit transfer approach. The core of this research underscored the necessity for consistency in the selection of primary studies for meta-regression models (MRMs) to mitigate potential inaccuracies. A commodity-consistent, methodology-consistent [...] Read more.
This study presents a comprehensive economic valuation of UK saltmarsh habitats, utilising a benefit transfer approach. The core of this research underscored the necessity for consistency in the selection of primary studies for meta-regression models (MRMs) to mitigate potential inaccuracies. A commodity-consistent, methodology-consistent meta-regression model was established based on the existing literature that only used the stated preference methods for saltmarsh valuation in the UK. This research is distinct in its concentration on UK-based studies, aiming to provide a valuation that is not only more reflective of the region-specific importance of these habitats but also contributes to the formulation of more informed policies. The results from the unweighted Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, which accounted for approximately 61% of the variance in LnWTPHA (logarithm of per hectare willingness to pay), were particularly revealing. These findings suggest a higher valuation for saltmarshes when a spectrum of benefits is presented for valuation purposes. Incorporating the economic valuation derived from this research, the estimated existence value of saltmarsh habitats in the UK stands at GBP 991 per hectare per year. These findings offer region-specific insights critical for formulating effective conservation strategies, emphasising balanced approaches that consider diverse saltmarsh sizes and socio-economic factors. The study’s UK-focused, consistent methodology and commodity and variable analysis provide policymakers and environmental managers with robust tools to ensure sustainable preservation of saltmarsh habitats. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainability, Biodiversity and Conservation)
26 pages, 1823 KB  
Article
Integrating Probability and Possibility Theory: A Novel Approach to Valuing Real Options in Uncertain Environments
by Bartłomiej Gaweł, Bogdan Rębiasz and Andrzej Paliński
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(13), 7143; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15137143 - 25 Jun 2025
Viewed by 639
Abstract
The article presents a new method for evaluating investment projects in uncertain conditions, assuming that uncertainty may have two origins: aleatory (related to randomness) and epistemic (due to incomplete knowledge). Epistemic uncertainty is rarely considered in investment analysis, which can result in undervaluing [...] Read more.
The article presents a new method for evaluating investment projects in uncertain conditions, assuming that uncertainty may have two origins: aleatory (related to randomness) and epistemic (due to incomplete knowledge). Epistemic uncertainty is rarely considered in investment analysis, which can result in undervaluing the future opportunities and risks. Our contribution is built around a correlated random–fuzzy Geometric Brownian Motion, a hybrid Monte Carlo engine that propagates mixed uncertainty into a probability box, combined with three p-box-to-CDF transformations (pignistic, ambiguity-based and credibility-based) to reflect decision-maker attitudes. Our approach utilizes the Datar–Mathews method (DM method) to gather relevant information regarding the potential value of a real option. By combining probabilistic and possibilistic approaches, the proposed valuation model incorporates hybrid Monte Carlo simulation and a random–fuzzy Geometric Brownian Motion, considering the interdependence between parameters. The result of the hybrid simulation is a pair of upper and lower cumulative probability distributions, known as a p-box, which represents the uncertainty range of the Net Present Value (NPV). We propose three transformations of the p-box into a subjective probability distribution, which allow decision makers to incorporate their subjective beliefs and risk preferences when performing real option valuation. Thus, our approach allows the combination of objective available information about valuation of investment with the decision maker’s attitude in front of partial ignorance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in practical scenarios, we provide a numerical illustration that clearly showcases how our approach delivers a more precise valuation of real options. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Computing and Artificial Intelligence)
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27 pages, 2257 KB  
Article
From Stated Importance to Revealed Preferences: Assessing Residential Property Features
by Aneta Chmielewska, Marek Walacik and Adam Senetra
Land 2025, 14(7), 1339; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14071339 - 24 Jun 2025
Viewed by 702
Abstract
The optimization of land development requires a deep understanding of end-user expectations to ensure that new residential environments are both market-responsive and socially sustainable. This paper presents a novel prioritization-based technique for identifying and ranking property features according to buyer preferences. Using the [...] Read more.
The optimization of land development requires a deep understanding of end-user expectations to ensure that new residential environments are both market-responsive and socially sustainable. This paper presents a novel prioritization-based technique for identifying and ranking property features according to buyer preferences. Using the MoSCoW method in combination with conjoint analysis, the study evaluates the relative importance of various housing attributes, such as layout, number of rooms, access to transportation, and availability of parking or green areas. The results provide structured insights into demand-side priorities and offer actionable guidelines for developers, urban planners, and decision-makers engaged in land use planning. By linking individual housing preferences with broader planning strategies, the proposed framework contributes to the creation of better-aligned, user-centric urban developments. The approach is tested on a local property market, and its potential applications in strategic zoning, infrastructure placement, and residential density modeling are discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimizing Land Development: Trends and Best Practices)
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