Search Results (22)

The sustainability and adequacy of pension systems are central to public policy debates in aging societies. This paper introduces a novel microsimulation model with probabilistic behavior to assess these dual challenges in the Spanish pension system. The model employs a mixed-projection method, integrating a macro approach—using economic and demographic aggregates from official sources such as the Spanish Statistics Office (INE) and Eurostat—with a micro approach based on the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL) dataset from Spanish Social Security. This framework enables individual-level projections of key labor market variables, including work time, salary, and initial pensions, under diverse reform scenarios. The results demonstrate the model’s ability to predict initial pensions with high accuracy, providing detailed insights into adequacy by age, gender, and income levels, as well as distributional measures such as density functions and quantiles. Sustainability findings indicate that pension expenditures are projected to stabilize at 13.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2050. The proposed model provides a robust and versatile tool for policymakers, offering a comprehensive evaluation of the long-term impacts of pension reforms on both system sustainability and individual adequacy. Full article

The purpose of this article was to examine the level and variability of budgetary expenditures directed to the Agricultural Social Insurance Fund (ASIF) in Poland in the form of subsidies to the Farmers’ Pension Fund in the period 2004–2024, i.e., after Poland’s accession to the European Union (EU). The aim of the study was also to determine the share of subsidies to the farmers’ social insurance fund in the total expenditures of the Polish agricultural budget, as well as the relationship of ASIF expenditures to state budget expenditures and GDP dynamics. The authors attempted to estimate the trend function for these time series and the degree of fit of the equations describing them. The formation of the nominal and real level of budget expenditures on the ASIF in 2004–2024 was evaluated. It was assumed that spending on the ASIF is an element of agricultural policy, realising its redistributive and social objectives, but indirectly also pro-development objectives by supporting generational change in agriculture. The research showed that the real level of spending on ASIF declined during Poland’s EU membership, as did the share of this spending in the total agricultural budget. The subsidy to the social security system also did not follow the changes in GDP and state budget expenditure proportionally, showing much less dynamism over the period studied. This means that budget support for farmers’ social security is losing its importance as an instrument of agricultural policy. It has been shown that the economic and social components of agricultural expenditure have not grown in harmony. The changes in the level of spending on the ASIF in the period 2004–2024 were also analysed in relation to demographic changes, i.e., the number of farmers insured in the ASIF and recipients of agricultural pensions. It has been shown that, despite a significant decrease in the number of farmers receiving pensions from the ASIF, there remains a large disparity between the average pension benefits of farmers and those of the general social insurance system (Social Insurance Institution—SII). The reduction in this disparity is not served by a real reduction in subsidies to the ASIF. Full article

Around three million pensioners receive the Indonesian civil service pension benefit. This benefit is the main source of income for the majority of civil service pensioners. This paper examines the adequacy of this pension benefit from the perspective of pensioners in Kapuas Regency. Through qualitative research, fifteen semi-structured interviews were conducted to investigate the role of pension benefits in maintaining the interviewees’ lifestyles and standards of living. All the interviewees perceived that the pension benefit could cover their basic needs, but for most of them, it only covered 25% of their total expenditures. Despite this, the replacement rate of the take-home pay from the pension benefit is still acceptable based on the ILO standard. While some can adjust to life with basic needs, others choose to find another source of income after retirement. Therefore, although the amount is still higher than the poverty line and the minimum wage, the findings suggest the retirement rate is considered meager. Full article

Background: Mental and behavioral disorders significantly impair psychophysical functioning, leading to challenges in daily activities. The increasing recognition of the importance of mental health in global development goals has resulted in its inclusion in the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. The burden of mental disorders has grown worldwide due to demographic changes, with substantial economic and social impacts. Objective: This study aimed to examine the indirect costs of mental disorders in Poland by analyzing the expenditures by the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) on work incapacity benefits and disability pensions from 2012 to 2023. The goal was to identify trends, dependencies, and the economic impact of policy changes. Material and Methods: Data were collected from ZUS reports on annual expenditures for work incapacity benefits and disability pensions. Advanced statistical methods, including linear regression and Pearson correlation, were employed to analyze trends and relationships. Student’s t-tests assessed the statistical significance of the observed trends. Results: The expenditures on benefits for work incapacity due to mental disorders increased significantly over the past decade, particularly from 2020 to 2023, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Short-term absenteeism due to mental disorders accounted for 10.5% of the total sick leave days. A strong positive correlation was found between years and benefit expenditures. Conversely, the disability pension expenditures exhibited a downward trend, potentially reflecting improvements in public health or policy changes. Conclusions: The significant increase in expenditures on benefits related to mental disorders may reflect greater awareness, improved diagnostics, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the decline in disability pension expenditures could suggest improved mental health or effective policy measures. However, it is important to emphasize that the presented data are not the only factor influencing this situation. Multiple variables, including societal, economic, and healthcare system changes, contribute to these trends. Therefore, further research is necessary to fully understand the underlying causes and to guide effective policy development. Regular monitoring and continued investment in mental health are essential to managing indirect costs such as absenteeism and presenteeism efficiently. Full article

With the aging of China’s population, the problem of pension security has become more and more prominent, and whether delayed retirement can effectively alleviate the pension fund gap and ensure the sustainability of the pension fund has become the focus of social concern. This study predicts the income and expenditure of urban workers’ basic pension insurance fund from 2021 to 2050 by constructing an actuarial model of pension insurance fund income and expenditure, and simulates the effect of delayed retirement policy. The prediction results show that under the existing system, the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers will have a shortfall for the first time in 2027, and the shortfall will expand year by year. Compared with the non-implementation of delayed retirement policy, the simulation of the implementation of a delayed retirement program delayed the emergence of the fund gap until 2029, and the forecast period of the pension fund gap significantly narrowed, indicating that delayed retirement policy has a certain positive impact on alleviating the pressure of pension payments, but delayed retirement cannot completely eliminate the pension fund gap. In view of this, this paper suggests that a progressive and flexible delayed retirement policy should be introduced as soon as possible to better adapt to the needs of different groups. At the same time, differentiated policies should be formulated for different groups of people and a pension incentive mechanism for delayed retirement should be set up to improve public acceptance of delayed retirement policy. In addition, delayed retirement policy should be combined with other measures, such as lowering the corporate contribution rate and enhancing the value-added capacity of the pension fund, so as to ensure the sustainability of the pension fund. Full article

The question of how to effectively alleviate the financial pressure on pension insurance due to the increase in life expectancy has become an important issue in the reform of China’s social security system. This paper introduced two life expectancy-related delayed retirement schemes, namely the fixed expected retirement residual life and the fixed life burden ratio. We modeled the financial balance of the employee pension fund and the pension wealth of employees with a dynamic retirement age according to pension policy. Using the population mortality data, the dynamic retirement age under the two schemes was estimated under the stochastic mortality model. Following this, the impact of the two delayed retirement schemes was quantitatively assessed from the perspectives of the financial sustainability of the pension fund and the pension wealth of employees using insurance actuarial methods. This study found that the two life expectancy-related delayed retirement schemes have obvious effects on reducing the gap between the income and expenditure of the pension fund and increasing the pension wealth of employees. Moreover, it found that the fixed expected retirement residual life program contributes more than the fixed life burden ratio program to improve the financial sustainability of the pension fund and the pension wealth benefits of employees. Full article

With gradual progress in the medical field and the rising living standard of people, the life expectancy of people is gradually increasing. Unfortunately, this positive development contributes significantly to the aging of societies and creates huge challenges for pension systems. In order to mitigate the pressure on its pension system in the coming years, China is considering increasing the retirement age, just like many other countries. Based on the wage data of urban employees, pension revenue and expenditure data of employees in Anhui Province over the years, we constructed a model to predict average wages and forecast the revenue of the urban pension system from 2022 to 2032. We predicted the pension revenues by simulating an adjusted retirement age under two different schemes. The results of the study showed that the policies of appropriately increasing the retirement age can raise pension revenue. Compared with a one-step retirement age change scheme, a rolling retirement age change scheme that increases the retirement age by several months each year was found to be more suitable for the healthy development of the pension system. Full article

The rapidly growing aging population is a global phenomenon imposing societal challenges on many cities. ‘Aging-in-place’ as a popular concept accommodates both the elderly desire to age in a familiar environment and adaptive old home modifications for aging. However, this concept has not been explored in-depth systematically in the urban regeneration context. This article explores a form of aging-in-place that is suitable for large and dense residential urban areas using the case of Hong Kong as an example of a laisse-faire fast-growing dense city, with a focus on home modifications. As in many other Asian cities, with a low tax rate and without a pension scheme, the elderly in Hong Kong are concerned more with the basic needs of health care and rely on public housing. Housing affordability is the primary concern. The government is expected to take the lead in aging-in-place in urban regeneration, in particular, to provide necessary home modifications for the elderly who live in public housing with primary health care provisions. A survey of 294 respondents revealed that housing expenditures, housing size, income level, and residential location are indicators of whether home modifications or health care in cities such as Hong Kong can be afforded by the locals, under tight budget constraints. Full article

The one-child policy was designed as a basic national policy in China and was written into the Constitution in 1982. The main content and purpose of the policy are to advocate late marriage, late childbearing and fewer births to control population growth in a planned way. Since the implementation of the basic national policy, its positive effect upon China’s economic development cannot be ignored, but after entering the 21st century, the problems related to population aging became obvious. Consequently, the basic pension system is confronted with great challenges. Under these circumstances, China initiated the two-child policy in 2016. This paper tries to forecast the change of pension shortfall after the implementation of the “two-child” policy in Anhui Province in China by establishing a pension revenue model, a pension expenditure model and a population prediction model. The prediction results reveal that the “two-child” policy helps to alleviate the pressure on the pension system, but the effect is limited and the “two-child” policy cannot change the trend of increasing pension shortfall in the long run. To reduce the burden on the pension system, the government can consider extending the pension contribution period and retirement age to make pension system sustainable. Full article

Morbidity is the main item in the distribution of expenditure on healthcare services. The Adjusted Morbidity Group (AMG) measures comorbidity and complexity and classifies the patient into mutually exclusive clinical categories. The aim of this study is to analyse the variability of healthcare expenditure on users with similar scores classified by the AMG. Observational analytical and retrospective study. Population: 1,691,075 subjects, from Canary Islands (Spain), aged over 15 years with data from health cards, clinical history, Basic Minimum Specialised Healthcare Data Set, AMG, hospital agreements information system and Electronic Prescriptions. A descriptive, bivariant (ANOVA coefficient η²) and multivariant analysis was conducted. There is a correlation between the costs and the weight of AMG (rho = 0.678) and the prescribed active ingredients (rho = 0.689), which is smaller with age and does not exist with the other variables. As for the influence of the AMG morbidity group on the total costs of the patient, the coefficient η² (0.09) obtains a median effect in terms of the variability of expenditure, hence there is intra- and inter-group variability in the cost. In a first model created with all the variables and the cost, an explanatory power of 36.43% (R² = 0.3643) was obtained; a second model that uses solely active ingredients, AMG weight, being female and a pensioner obtained an explanatory power of 36.4%. There is room for improvement in terms of predicting the expenditure. Full article

Background: The aim of this research was to analyze trends in social security applications in Italy as a result of the onset of atrial fibrillation, analyzing data pertaining to the classification of professions and assessing the economic impact on the social security system. Methods: We analyzed all applications for invalidity allowances and invalidity pensions throughout Italy over a 10-year period from 01.01.2009 to 31.12.2019, giving specific attention to all reports indicating atrial fibrillation as the principal diagnosis (Cod. ICD-9-CM 427.31). We then extracted the relative expenditure data for said benefits. The results of all analyses have been collated in tables. Results: Over the period in question, a total of 3468 applications for assistance were filed throughout Italy indicating a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, of which 58% were rejected, 41% qualified for an invalidity allowance, and only 1.1% qualified for a pension. On average, every year, 1100 workers received social security benefits as a result of a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, which equates to an average annual expenditure of EUR 10 million. A comparison of the data from the first observation year (2009) with data from the last (2019) shows a rising trend in the number of beneficiaries and consequently in expenses. Conclusions: The social security assistance provided by the Italian government by means of the National Institute of Social Security is fundamental to social cohesion and to those who are either permanently disabled from working or those with a significantly diminished earning capacity. This assistance is associated with a significant financial cost, which requires careful monitoring. Full article

Background: This study aimed to examine the association of internal migration experience with depressive symptoms among middle-aged and elderly Chinese, as well as explore possible mechanisms of the relationship. Methods: Participants were from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a nationally representative sample of residents aged 45 years and older (n = 43,854). Survey data on depressive symptoms and internal migration experience were collected from biennial CHARLS surveys (CHARLS 2011/2013/2015) and a unique CHARLS life history survey in 2014, respectively. Multiple logistic regressions and the Karlson–Holm–Breen (KHB) method were employed in the statistical analyses. Results: The overall prevalence rate of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older adults was 34.6%. Internal migration experience was associated with higher risks of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.02–1.12, p < 0.01), especially among females (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01–1.14, p < 0.05), middle-aged adults (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.06–1.19, p < 0.001), rural-to-urban migrants who had not obtained an urban hukou (OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.07–1.19, p < 0.001), and those who had low migration frequency and first migrated out at 35 years of age or older. Chronic disease (17.98%, p < 0.001), physical injury (7.04%, p < 0.001), medical expenditure (7.98%, p < 0.001), pension insurance (4.91%, p < 0.001), and parent–child interaction (4.45%, p < 0.01) were shown to mediate the association of internal migration experience with depressive symptoms. Conclusions: This study indicates that there is a significant association between internal migration experience and high risks of depression onset later in life. It is suggested to reduce institutional barriers for migrants and implement evidence-based interventions to improve migrants’ mental health. Full article

It is generally accepted that China’s Employees Basic Pension System (CEBPS) cannot cover its expenses. The government needs to fill the gap in income and expenditure with fiscal revenue to ensure sustainability of the system, which may cause it to take fiscal risk caused by the volatility of the fund gap. In this article, through the establishment of a prediction model for the income and expenditure of CEBPS with dynamic mortality, we aimed to measure the fiscal risk caused by longevity risk and provide policy basis for the government. We found that longevity risk leads to serious fiscal risk. The income and expenditure gap of CEBPS fluctuates greatly, and the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of fund balance in 2067 are 1.52 and 0.44 times the expected value, respectively. The knock-on effect of fiscal risk, measured by value-at-risk (VaR), is 1.15 times gross domestic product and 4.75 times state fiscal expenditure in 2020. In this article, we not only calculate the expected value like the other literatures but also discuss the volatility of the CEBPS fund gap. Full article

Many countries around the world are resorting to mandatory funded components in their multi-pillar pension systems with the purpose of catering for the financial pressure from ageing. This paper aims at analysing the possible replacement rates for such a scheme, by choosing different assumptions and setting the best combined area for the expected result. Then, an approach for analysing the potential for the implementation of such a scheme in Greece is presented along with the actuarially projected expected benefit expenditure and respective accrued capital. A result of the introduction of such a component is expected to be the elevated replacement rate at retirement with a concurrent alleviation of the fiscal burden for the state. The projected scale of savings will also provide domestic financing for investments generating growth. Full article

The reform of 2013 represented a qualitative leap in the reform of the Spanish pension system. Unlike its predecessors, it introduced two automatic resetting mechanisms similar to those of other European countries. The first is the sustainability factor, scheduled to come into effect in 2019 but delayed until 2023, and its ultimate reversal cannot be ruled out. The objective of this study was to quantify the savings, or the lowest expenditure, that can be achieved in the Spanish public contributory pension system by applying it. These savings are measured in terms of cash—of annual expenditure—and in terms of accrual by calculating its present actuarial value. Combining these two methods is one of the contributions of this work. This work was only intended to analyze the impact of the Sustainability Factor, therefore, it did not take into account the impact of the Pension Revaluation Index, which is the second mechanism introduced in the reform of the pension to 2013. An ad hoc projection method was used, combining microdata from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL), aggregate data from the pension system, the financial-actuarial projection method, and actuarial techniques. The diversity of the data used is the second contribution of this work. The application of the sustainability factor would improve the viability of the system, since the savings that could be achieved, measured in terms of GDP for each year, would be 1.029% by 2050; 1.094% in 2057, the maximum; and 1.026% in the last year of projection. In terms of the present actuarial value and as a function of annual GDP, in 2050, the savings would be 1.27%, 1.40% in 2044, the maximum, and in 2067 it would decrease to 0.98%. Full article