Search Results (18)

Conventional sources of electricity are limited and they pollute the Earth, so it is necessary to think about an additional source of electricity in the future. Nuclear power is one of the options. Two scenarios using different shares of nuclear power in the future are described in this paper. Scenario 1 describes a moderate increase in nuclear energy use in the future, but with a tendency for a larger increase over 2050. Scenario 2 describes a significant increase in nuclear energy until 2100. Both scenarios are divided into three sub-scenarios (total six) in which the use of different nuclear technologies is analyzed (conventional liquid water reactors, fast breeder reactors and molten salt reactors using thorium as nuclear fuel). In all scenarios, the phase-out of fossil fuel power plants is assumed. One part of the power system is covered by nuclear power plants, and the remaining part is covered by renewable energy power plants. After 2050, an increasing share of the electricity system will be taken over by RES power plants. Nuclear fuel stocks are also analyzed. It is calculated that currently known nuclear fuel stocks are sufficient to meet the needs in all six scenarios. The carbon dioxide emissions saved due to nuclear energy use instead of conventional energy power plants are calculated. The CO_2eq emission savings for Scenario 1 is 87.4% of the recommended emission savings under the IPCC. The CO_2eq emission savings for Scenario 2 is more than sufficient. A calculation of the economic profitability of nuclear energy use is made in relation to fossil power plants and renewable energy power plants. According to calculations, nuclear energy is profitable compared to other energy sources. Nuclear energy use is positive from all the mentioned aspects. Full article

The objective of this paper is to propose a decarbonization roadmap for Taiwan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 by analyzing the status of fossil and non-fossil energies, screening applicable decarbonization technologies for their effectiveness, and then proposing an energy mix for the future. The novelty of this work lies in the screening process, which considers six, instead of one or two, categories: sustainability, security, affordability, reliability, technology readiness, and technology impact. Based on this screening, a decarbonization roadmap is proposed and compared with the announced net-zero emissions (NZE) plan. The proposed roadmap requires renewable electricity to grow at an average annual growth rate of 7% between now and 2050, instead of the 10.1% required by the NZE plan, which is more achievable based on issues identified with renewable energies during our screening exercise. The proposed roadmap improves on the NZE plan in the following aspects: (1) using clean coal technologies to decarbonize existing coal-fired power plants, (2) relying more on gas than wind and solar energies to replace coal and nuclear energy for power generation, (3) accelerating carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation, (4) delaying the phaseout of nuclear energy until 2050, and (5) using blue instead of green hydrogen to decarbonize the transport and industry sectors. Implications of this roadmap for future research and development and energy policies are also discussed. Full article

In this paper, we investigate the potentials of distributed generation (DG) in a medium-sized Swiss city. We show the role of private households in the sustainable energy transition process induced by Swiss energy policy. For the analysis, we define six scenarios that enable us to study the potentials and impacts of different combinations of DG technologies in terms of costs, CO₂ emissions, and amounts and shares of DG provided by non-industrial end-users (essentially private households and the services sector). Three variants are investigated, one with real electricity costs and CO₂ emissions, one with increased electricity costs (e.g., construction of new power plants), and one with increased CO₂ emissions (e.g., due to the planned nuclear phase-out in Switzerland). We find that non-industrial entities can play an important role as prosumers. They mitigate the need for centralized generation. Within a scenario where the non-industrial energy end-users install water-water heat pumps and photovoltaics, a total reduction of the gas procurement from the grid is possible whereas the electricity demand from the grid increases by 24%. This scenario reveals higher DG electricity costs in comparison to conventional electricity supply, but the total costs of energy supply decrease due to the elimination of gas supply, and the CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 68%. Full article

The devastating nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, which was triggered by a tsunami in the wake of an earthquake, resulted in the decision to quickly phase out nuclear power and with it implicitly accelerated the German Energiewende (energy transition). To the outside observer, the decision appeared to be spontaneous and possibly due to a distorted perception of the associated risks of nuclear power. From the decision results not only the limiting uses of private property by conventional energy providers, but the exit from nuclear energy has also implications for the energy market. As with every human, political actors decide under uncertainty and incomplete information. Based on these parameters, we emphasize that the decision of a political actor is comparable to management decision-making. The paper takes this as an opportunity to examine the political decision to phase-out nuclear energy by discussing relevant parameters from the perspective of decision theory. We plead for a mandatory consideration of economic findings, especially from decision theory and risk management in political decision-making processes, especially in matters that affect future generations. Full article

This article extends the coverage of the trust–acceptability model to a new situation of nuclear phase-out by investigating the effect of trust on the public acceptance of nuclear power, with South Korea as the research setting. Through the structural equation modeling of a nationwide survey dataset from South Korea, we examined the effects of the public’s trust in the various actors related to nuclear power on their perceptions of the benefits and risks of nuclear power and their acceptance of nuclear power. Contrary to previous studies’ findings, in South Korea, under a nuclear phase-out policy by the government, trust in government revealed a negative impact on the public acceptance of nuclear power. Trust in environmental non-governmental groups also showed a negative effect on nuclear power acceptance. In contrast, trust in nuclear energy authority and trust in nuclear academia both had positive effects. In all cases, the effect of a trust variable on nuclear power acceptance was at least partially accounted for by the trust’s indirect effects through benefit perception and risk perception. These findings strengthen the external validity of the trust–acceptability model and provide implications for both researchers and practitioners. Full article

The Korean Government has been implementing a nuclear phase-out policy since 2017. Nuclear power plants accounted for 30.0% of the total power generation in 2016; this figure fell to 25.9% at the end of 2019, and the average Capacity Factor (CF) of a nuclear power plant approximately dropped from 89.1% to 69.2%. The nuclear phase-out policy presents severe consequences for the sustainable management of the nuclear power industry. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of a decrease in the nuclear capacity factor under the nuclear phase-out policy on the depreciation cost per unit using the Straight-Line Method (SLM) and Decelerated Depreciation Method (DDM) and to provide recommendations from a sustainable management perspective. The results show that the decrease in CF of nuclear power plants has a negative impact on sustainable development of the nuclear power industry. DDM is more beneficial than the SLM during this initial stage of depreciation under the nuclear phase-out policy. In addition, in the early stages of projects or immediately after attracting large-scale investments, DDM can offer more positive signs for stockholders by calculating a smaller net loss or a higher net profit. Full article

The production of renewable energy fluctuates in terms of sun and wind and must be supplemented by storage in the system. On an individual basis, i.e., for centralized electricity production and predominantly self-consumption, the use of batteries is considered here. Possible future development scenarios were simulated based on current price relationships (status quo). In the status quo, a selling price for PV electricity of 13 Euro cents (ct)ct/kWh was assumed with a production cost of 11 ct/kWh. The selling price of wind power is 5 ct/kWh with a production cost of 3 ct/kWh. The cost of storing electricity in a battery increases the price by 33 ct/kWh. A price of 20 ct/kWh is assumed for electricity purchases by companies. In the status quo, the use of batteries is not economical given the assumed price relationships. Changing the framework conditions, such as those of the legislature in Germany with the nuclear power phase-out and in the EU with the coal exit and decarbonization, will lead to increased availability of (fluctuating) renewable electricity, especially during the day. The purchase of electricity at other times, when the supply is scarce, can lead to increased electricity prices, especially at night. Together with falling costs for storage, the use of batteries for centralized power generators could be very interesting in the future. The method used in this study is nonlinear optimization of the target function costs of electricity supply in the developed simulation model. The results can also be transferred to other countries, as the assumed trends apply worldwide. Full article

Pathways leading to a carbon neutral future for the German energy system have to deal with the expected phase-out of coal-fired power generation, in addition to the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the rapid ramp-up of photovoltaics and wind power generation. An analysis of the expected impact on electricity market, security of supply, and system stability must consider the European context because of the strong coupling—both from an economic and a system operation point of view—through the cross-border power exchange of Germany with its neighbors. This analysis, complemented by options to improve the existing development plans, is the purpose of this paper. We propose a multilevel energy system modeling, including electricity market, network congestion management, and system stability, to identify challenges for the years 2023 and 2035. Out of the results, we would like to highlight the positive role of innovative combined heat and power (CHP) solutions securing power and heat supply, the importance of a network congestion management utilizing flexibility from sector coupling, and the essential network extension plans. Network congestion and reduced security margins will become the new normal. We conclude that future energy systems require expanded flexibilities in combination with forward planning of operation. Full article

A thorough understanding of the drivers that affect the emission levels from electricity generation, support sound design and the implementation of further emission reduction goals are presented here. For instance, New York State has already committed a transition to 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper identifies the relationships among driving factors and the changes in emissions levels between 1990 and 2050 using the logarithmic mean divisia index analysis. The analysis relies on historical data and outputs from techno-economic-energy system modeling to elucidate future power sector pathways. Three scenarios, including a business-as-usual scenario and two policy scenarios, explore the changes in utility structure, efficiency, fuel type, generation, and emission factors, considering the non-fossil-based technology options and air regulations. We present retrospective and prospective analysis of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emissions for the New York State’s power sector. Based on our findings, although the intensity varies by period and emission type, in aggregate, fossil fuel mix change can be defined as the main contributor to reduce emissions. Electricity generation level variations and technical efficiency have relatively smaller impacts. We also observe that increased emissions due to nuclear phase-out will be avoided by the onshore and offshore wind with a lower fraction met by solar until 2050. Full article

Countries around the world are expanding their investment in the new and renewable energy industry for strengthening energy security, improving air pollution, responding to climate change, and tackling energy poverty. In Korea, with the nuclear phase-out declaration in 2017, the government has announced a policy to expand the ratio of new and renewable energy from 4.7% to 20% by 2030. This study examines a floating photovoltaic power generation system, which is a new and renewable energy source. A structure composed of high-durability steel with excellent corrosion resistance and durability was designed for constructing and installing a 500-kW-class floating photovoltaic power generation structure. In addition, the safety of the structure was verified through finite element analysis. By reviewing the safety of the structure with respect to the wave height, the behavior of the structure was confirmed through the design wave height formula proposed in the domestic standard. The verification result confirms that the stress is within the allowable design limit. Moreover, the energy production of the floating photovoltaic generation system was measured and compared with that of a terrestrial photovoltaic generation system, and that of the former was shown to be 10% higher than that of the latter. Full article

Similar to many other Western countries, Belgium has committed to internationally set climate goals, such as the reduction in primary energy consumption and the increase in the share of renewable energy production in the total energy mix. Additionally, Belgium has decided to phase out its nuclear energy production, the nation’s largest source of low carbon electricity. In this paper, the role of Belgian business parks and industrial clusters in contributing to the climate goals is investigated, based on the experiences of the authors on several business parks and industrial clusters. The concepts of cogeneration, advanced thermal grids, and local energy communities are discussed and applied on pilot clusters. Their effectiveness towards achieving the climate goals is evaluated, and finally, some policy recommendations are proposed. The results are based on the Belgian situation but are valid for other countries facing similar challenges. Full article

Since the start of the new Korean government in 2017, the Korean nuclear energy system has undergone a major change. This change in national energy policy can be forecasted by analyzing social big data. This study verifies whether future forecasting methodologies using weak signals can be applied to Korean nuclear energy through text mining the data of web news between 2005 and 2018, comparing and applying the methodology to notable events (i.e., the UAE nuclear power plant (NPP) contract and nuclear phase-out). In addition, we predict what changes will be made in the Korean nuclear energy system post-2019. Keywords extracted through text mining were quantitatively classified into a weak signal or a strong signal using a Keyword Emergence Map (KEM) and a Keyword Issue Map (KIM). The extracted keywords predicted the contract of the UAE NPPs in 2009 and nuclear phase-out in 2017. Furthermore, keywords revealing future signals beyond 2019 were found to be ‘nuclear phase-out’ and ‘wind energy’. The weak-signal methodology can be applied as a tool to predict future energy trends during the current circumstance of the rapidly changing world energy market. Full article

The fundamental modeling of energy systems through individual unit commitment decisions is crucial for energy system planning. However, current large-scale models are not capable of including uncertainties or even risk-averse behavior arising from forecasting errors of variable renewable energies. However, risks associated with uncertain forecasting errors have become increasingly relevant within the process of decarbonization. The intraday market serves to compensate for these forecasting errors. Thus, the uncertainty of forecasting errors results in uncertain intraday prices and quantities. Therefore, this paper proposes a two-stage risk-constrained stochastic optimization approach to fundamentally model unit commitment decisions facing an uncertain intraday market. By the nesting of Lagrangian relaxation and an extended Benders decomposition, this model can be applied to large-scale, e.g., pan-European, power systems. The approach is applied to scenarios for 2023—considering a full nuclear phase-out in Germany—and 2035—considering a full coal phase-out in Germany. First, the influence of the risk factors is evaluated. Furthermore, an evaluation of the market prices shows an increase in price levels as well as an increasing day-ahead-intraday spread in 2023 and in 2035. Finally, it is shown that intraday cross-border trading has a significant influence on trading volumes and prices and ensures a more efficient allocation of resources. Full article

The world’s aging fleet of nuclear power reactors faces decommissioning. Because decommissioning is implemented through a series of procedures, and this process changes the links between some industries, its economic impact needs to be investigated. This study compared the economic impacts of three nuclear industry sectors—nuclear generation, nuclear power construction, and nuclear decommissioning—using input-output analysis in South Korea, the first Asian country that has declared a nuclear phaseout. The study also traced changes in the structure of the nuclear industry during the Korean nuclear phaseout and the consequent economic impacts. The study found that the implementation of the nuclear phaseout will lead to a decrease in the induced outputs and the value added of nuclear industries in South Korea; however, this would be offset by deploying more renewable energy. In addition, the temporal impacts on individual sectors vary depending on changes in the number of reactors being decommissioned and the expenditure profile of the nuclear decommissioning sector. The findings call for policy measures that support a soft landing for nuclear industry sectors and related stakeholders, timely development of necessary technologies, and transparency in public communication. This study provides a methodological approach and input structure that can be used for studies in other countries. Full article

The phase-out of nuclear energy in Germany will take place in 2022. A site for final disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLRW) has not yet been chosen, but a site selection process was restarted by the Site Selection Act in 2017. This Act was based on a recommendation by a commission which also advised to follow up the development of deep borehole disposal (DBD) as a possible option for final disposal of HLRW. This paper describes briefly the status of DBD in Germany and if this option is to be pursued in Germany. Although DBD has some merits, it can only be a real option if supported by research and development. The technical equipment for larger boreholes of the required size will only be developed if there is funding and a feasibility test. Furthermore, any DBD concept must be detailed further, and some requirements of the Act must be reconsidered. Therefore, the support of DBD will likely remain at a low level if there are no political changes. Full article