Search Results (340)

Demand Side Management (DSM) plays a crucial role in modern energy systems, enabling more efficient use of energy resources and contributing to the sustainability of the power grid. This study examines DSM strategies within a multi-environment context encompassing residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, with a focus on diverse appliance types that exhibit distinct operational characteristics and user preferences. Initially, a single-objective optimization approach using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is employed to minimize the total energy cost under a real Time-of-Use (ToU) pricing scheme. This heuristic method allows for the effective scheduling of appliance operations while factoring in their unique characteristics such as power consumption, usage duration, and user-defined operational flexibility. This study extends the optimization problem to a multi-objective framework that incorporates the minimization of CO₂ emissions under a real annual energy mix while also accounting for user discomfort. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is utilized for this purpose, providing a Pareto-optimal set of solutions that balances these competing objectives. The inclusion of multiple objectives ensures a comprehensive assessment of DSM strategies, aiming to reduce environmental impact and enhance user satisfaction. Additionally, this study monitors the Peak-to-Average Ratio (PAR) to evaluate the impact of DSM strategies on load balancing and grid stability. It also analyzes the impact of considering different periods of the year with the associated ToU hourly schedule and CO₂ emissions hourly profile. A key innovation of this research is the integration of detailed, category-specific metrics that enable the disaggregation of costs, emissions, and user discomfort across residential, commercial, and industrial appliances. This granularity enables stakeholders to implement tailored strategies that align with specific operational goals and regulatory compliance. Also, the emphasis on a user discomfort indicator allows us to explore the flexibility available in such DSM mechanisms. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed multi-objective optimization approach in achieving significant cost savings that may reach 20% for industrial applications, while the order of magnitude of the trade-offs involved in terms of emissions reduction, improvement in discomfort, and PAR reduction is quantified for different frameworks. The outcomes not only underscore the efficacy of applying advanced optimization frameworks to real-world problems but also point to pathways for future research in smart energy management. This comprehensive analysis highlights the potential of advanced DSM techniques to enhance the sustainability and resilience of energy systems while also offering valuable policy implications. Full article

Global policy narratives on livestock development increasingly emphasize environmental concerns, often overlooking the social dimensions of the sector. In the case of dairy, the world’s most valuable agricultural commodity, its role in social and economic development remains poorly quantified. Our study contributes to a more balanced vision of the UN SDGs thanks to the inclusion of a socio-economic dimension. Here we present a novel empirical approach to assess the socio-economic impacts of dairy development using a new global dataset and non-parametric modelling techniques (local polynomial regressions), with yield as a proxy for sectoral performance. We find that as dairy systems intensify, the number of farm households engaged in production declines, yet household incomes rise. On-farm labour productivity also increases, accompanied by a reduction in employment but higher wages. In dairy processing, employment initially grows, peaks, and then contracts, again with rising wages. The most substantial impact is observed among consumers: an increased milk supply leads to lower prices and improved affordability, expanding the access to dairy products. Additionally, dairy development is associated with greater agricultural value added, an expanding tax base, and the increased formalization of the economy. These findings suggest that dairy development, beyond its environmental footprint, plays a significant and largely positive role in social transformation, yet is having to adapt sustainably while tackling labour force relocation, and that dairy development’s social impacts mimic the general agricultural sector. These results might be of interest for the assessment of policies regarding dairy development. Full article

Given the significant shifts in rural labor mobility patterns and their continuous influence on the transformation of the land factor market, it is crucial to understand the relationship between labor factor prices and land factor prices. This understanding is essential to keep land factor prices within a reasonable range. This study establishes a theoretical framework to investigate how migrant workers’ return shapes land price formation mechanisms. Using 2023 micro-level survey data from eight counties in Jiangsu Province, China, this study empirically examines how migrant workers’ return affects land transfer prices and its underlying mechanisms through OLS regression and instrumental variable approaches. The findings show that under the current pattern of labor mobility, the outflow factor alone is no longer sufficient to exert substantial downward pressure on land transfer prices. Instead, the localized return of labor has emerged as a key driver behind the rise in land transfer prices. This upward mechanism is primarily realized through the following pathways. First, factor substitution effect: this effect lowers labor prices and increases the relative marginal output value of land factors. Second, supply–demand effect: migrant workers’ return simultaneously increases land demand and reduces supply, intensifying market shortages and driving up transfer prices. Lastly, the results demonstrate that enhancing the stability of land tenure security or increasing local non-agricultural employment opportunities can mitigate the effect of rising land transfer prices caused by the migrant workers’ return. According to the study’s findings, stabilizing land factor prices depends on full non-agricultural employment for migrant workers. This underscores the significance of policies that encourage employment for returning rural labor. Full article

Accurate carbon price forecasting is essential for market stability, risk management, and policy-making. To address the nonlinear, non-stationary, and multiscale nature of carbon prices, this paper proposes a forecasting framework integrating secondary decomposition, two-stage feature selection, and dynamic ensemble learning. Firstly, the original price series is decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), using complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). The IMFs are then grouped into low- and high-frequency components based on multiscale entropy (MSE) and K-Means clustering. To further alleviate mode mixing in the high-frequency components, an improved variational mode decomposition (VMD) optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) is applied for secondary decomposition. Secondly, a two-stage feature-selection method is employed, in which the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is used to select relevant lagged features, while the maximal information coefficient (MIC) is applied to identify key variables from both historical and external data. Finally, this paper introduces a dynamic integration module based on sliding windows and sequential least squares programming (SLSQP), which can not only adaptively adjust the weights of four base learners but can also effectively leverage the complementary advantages of each model and track the dynamic trends of carbon prices. The empirical results of the carbon markets in Hubei and Guangdong indicate that the proposed method outperforms the benchmark model in terms of prediction accuracy and robustness, and the method has been tested by Diebold Mariano (DM). The main contributions are the improved feature-extraction process and the innovative use of a sliding window-based SLSQP method for dynamic ensemble weight optimization. Full article

In China, the recycling system for waste tires is characterized by high output but low standardized recovery rates. This study examines the environmental and health risks caused by non-compliant treatment by individual recyclers and explores the barriers to the large-scale adoption of Pyrolysis Technology. A Tripartite Evolutionary Game Model involving pyrolysis plants, waste tire recyclers, and government regulators is developed. The model incorporates pollutants from pretreatment and pyrolysis processes into a unified metric—Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO₂-eq)—based on Global Warming Potential (GWP), and designs a Differential Carbon Taxation mechanism accordingly. The strategy dynamics and stability conditions for Evolutionary Stable Strategies (ESS) are analyzed. Multi-scenario numerical simulations explore how key parameter changes influence evolutionary trajectories and equilibrium outcomes. Six typical equilibrium states are identified, along with the critical conditions for achieving environmentally friendly results. Based on theoretical analysis and simulation results, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to promote standardized waste tire pyrolysis: (1) Establish a phased dynamic carbon tax with supporting subsidies; (2) Build a green market cultivation and price stabilization system; (3) Implement performance-based differential incentives; (4) Strengthen coordination between central environmental inspections and local carbon tax enforcement. Full article

The global crude oil market, known for its pronounced volatility and nonlinear dynamics, plays a pivotal role in shaping economic stability and informing investment strategies. Contrary to traditional research focused on price forecasting, this study emphasizes the more investor-centric task of predicting returns for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. By spotlighting returns, it directly addresses critical investor concerns such as asset allocation and risk management. This study applies advanced machine learning models, including XGBoost, random forest, and neural networks to predict crude oil return, and for the first time, incorporates sustainability and external risk variables, which are shown to enhance predictive performance in capturing the non-stationarity and complexity of financial time-series data. To enhance predictive accuracy, we integrate 55 variables across five dimensions: macroeconomic indicators, financial and futures markets, energy markets, momentum factors, and sustainability and external risk. Among these, the rate of change stands out as the most influential predictor. Notably, XGBoost demonstrates a superior performance, surpassing competing models with an impressive 76% accuracy in direction forecasting. The analysis highlights how the significance of various predictors shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic. This underscores the dynamic and adaptive character of crude oil markets under substantial external disruptions. In addition, by incorporating sustainability factors, the study provides deeper insights into the drivers of market behavior, supporting more informed portfolio adjustments, risk management strategies, and policy development aimed at fostering resilience and advancing sustainable energy transitions. Full article

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impacts of international trade on consumption-based carbon emissions (CBEs) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (USA) from 1990 to 2018. The analysis uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) methodologies to capture short- and long-run trade emissions dynamics, with economic growth, oil prices, financial development and industry value addition as control variables. The findings reveal that exports reduce CBEs, while imports increase them, across both economies in the long and short run. The asymmetric analysis highlights that a fall in exports increases CBEs in the USA but reduces them in the PRC due to differences in supply chain flexibility. The PRC demonstrates larger coefficients for trade variables, reflecting its reliance on energy-intensive imports and rapid trade growth. The error correction term shows that the PRC takes 2.64 times longer than the USA to return to equilibrium after short-run shocks, reflecting systemic rigidity. These findings challenge the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, showing that economic growth intensifies CBEs. Robustness checks confirm the results, highlighting the need for tailored policies, including carbon border adjustments, renewable energy integration and CBE-based accounting frameworks. Full article

As a core strategy for carbon emission reduction, carbon trading plays a critical role in policy guidance and market stability. Accurate forecasting of carbon prices is essential, yet remains challenging due to the nonlinear, non-stationary, noisy, and uncertain nature of carbon price time series. To address this, this paper proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates dual-mode decomposition and a TKMixer-BiGRU-SA model for carbon price prediction. First, external variables with high correlation to carbon prices are identified through correlation analysis and incorporated as inputs. Then, the carbon price series is decomposed using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) to extract multi-scale features embedded in the original data. The core prediction model, TKMixer-BiGRU-SA Net, comprises three integrated branches: the first processes the raw carbon price and highly relevant external time series, and the second and third process multi-scale components obtained from VMD and EWT, respectively. The proposed model embeds Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KANs) into the Time-Series Mixer (TSMixer) module, replacing the conventional time-mapping layer to form the TKMixer module. Each branch alternately applies the TKMixer along the temporal and feature-channel dimensions to capture dependencies across time steps and variables. Hierarchical nonlinear transformations enhance higher-order feature interactions and improve nonlinear modeling capability. Additionally, the BiGRU component captures bidirectional long-term dependencies, while the Self-Attention (SA) mechanism adaptively weights critical features for integrated prediction. This architecture is designed to uncover global fluctuation patterns in carbon prices, multi-scale component behaviors, and external factor correlations, thereby enabling autonomous learning and the prediction of complex non-stationary and nonlinear price dynamics. Empirical evaluations using data from the EU Emission Allowance (EUA) and Hubei Emission Allowance (HBEA) demonstrate the model’s high accuracy in both single-step and multi-step forecasting tasks. For example, the e_MAPE of EUA predictions for 1–4 step forecasts are 0.2081%, 0.5660%, 0.8293%, and 1.1063%, respectively—outperforming benchmark models and confirming the proposed method’s effectiveness and robustness. This study provides a novel approach to carbon price forecasting with practical implications for market regulation and decision-making. Full article

Background/Objectives: This study investigates the evolution of hospital capacity and utilization in California between 2003 and 2023, focusing on emergency departments (EDs) and trauma centers (TCs). We seek to document structural changes in the healthcare delivery system with respect to hospital-based emergency and trauma services. Methods: This analysis examines changes in population demographics, hospital resources, and patient utilization patterns across facility types. Given the significant increase in the proportion of the population aged 65+ and the documented higher use of emergency and trauma services by this population, we expected to observe an expansion in ED and trauma service capacity and utilization. Results: Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of California general acute care hospitals over this 20+ year period, our descriptive analysis reveals major shifts in the healthcare delivery system, notably the increased prominence of hospitals with EDs, particularly those designated as trauma centers. Findings indicate that, while the overall number of hospitals and licensed beds has slightly decreased, facilities with EDs, especially trauma centers, have increased their capacity and manage a greater proportion of inpatient admissions and ED visits. Conclusions: The increase in ED visits and inpatient admissions at trauma centers, contrasted with decreases in both capacity and utilization at non-trauma hospitals, indicates a significant restructuring of the health delivery system with significant implications for healthcare policy, financing, operations, and affordability. The high and increasing percentage of inpatient admissions originating from hospital EDs and from hospitals with trauma centers suggests a need for policies that foster integration between ED and inpatient care and the broader healthcare delivery system, while at the same time managing the increase in prices and costs associated with growing emergency services utilization. Further research is needed to explore the implications of these trends, particularly concerning their impact on the affordability of healthcare in the US. Full article

This paper assesses whether fintech mortgage lenders align pricing with borrower risk using conforming 30-year mortgages (2012–2020). We estimate default probabilities using machine learning (logit, random forest, gradient boosting, LightGBM, XGBoost), finding that non-fintech lenders achieve the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.860), followed closely by banks (0.857), with fintech lenders trailing (0.852). In pricing analysis, banks adjust the origination rates most sharply with borrower risk (7.20 basis points per percentage-point increase in default probability) compared to fintech (4.18 bp) and non-fintech lenders (5.43 bp). Fintechs underprice 32% of high-risk loans, highlighting limited incentive alignment under GSE securitization structures. Expanding the allowable alternative data and modest risk-retention policies could enhance fintechs’ analytical effectiveness in mortgage markets. Full article

The evolving macroeconomic landscape, shaped by the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, poses significant challenges for economies worldwide. However, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries have demonstrated resilience and rapid recovery during crises, driven by a surge in consumption fueled by domestic credit and robust export growth supported by flexible exchange rates and adaptive monetary policies. Prior to EU accession, substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) during privatization and restructuring facilitated knowledge and technology transfers in CESEE economies. This study examines the interplay of exports, real exchange rates, GDP growth, FDI, inflation, domestic credit, and the human development index (HDI) in the CESEE region from 1995 to 2022, covering the transition period, EU accession, and major crises. Employing a panel ARDL model, we account for asymmetric effects of these variables on exports. The results reveal that GDP, FDI, inflation, domestic credit, and HDI significantly and positively influence exports, with HDI and GDP exerting the strongest effects, underscoring the pivotal roles of human capital and economic growth in enhancing export competitiveness. Conversely, real exchange rate depreciation negatively impacts exports, though non-price factors, such as product quality, mitigate this effect. These findings provide a robust basis for targeted policy measures to strengthen economic resilience and export performance in the CESEE region. Full article

This study was carried out at 10 randomly selected fringe villages of Buxa Tiger Reserve (BTR) in the Terai region of West Bengal, India through personal interviews with 100 randomly selected respondents. The study documented 102 non-timber forest products (NTFPs) that were utilized throughout the year. In the local weekly market, 28 NTFPs were found to be traded by the collectors. The study shows that without proper price mechanisms and marketing channels; the residents cannot obtain fair prices for their products. The study found only nine NTFPs that were prominently traded with the involvement of middlemen and traders along with the royalty imposed by the State Forest Department. The MSPs computed for these nine NTFPs were 25–200% higher than the prices the collectors were selling to the traders. The nationalization of NTFPs through MSPs will help their effective marketing, ensuring an adequate income for the collectors, which will lead to their sustainable harvest and conservation through participatory forest management. Introducing MSPs for NTFPs with an efficient procurement network can advance the economic status of the inhabitants. We recommend increasing the inhabitants’ capacity to collect, store, process, and market NTFPs with active policy, institutional, and infrastructural support. Full article

This paper examines whether reference-dependent preferences play a role in determining household electricity consumption in the Korean context. To do so, we first establish six variables of reference costs based on monthly electricity billing information of the 1040 Korean household survey dataset and then test whether these reference costs affect the electricity consumption in the subsequent months using a probit regression analysis. The empirical results show that the residential electricity consumption for the current month is determined by the reference cost in comparison to the actual costs of the previous months. The significant role of reference costs in determining electricity consumption implies that the behaviors of the Korean residential electricity consumers can be explained by the prospect theory. Furthermore, as a policy implication, these results suggest non-price interventions for residential electricity conservation in Korea. Full article

Modern cities are facing increasing challenges such as traffic congestion, high energy consumption, and poor air quality, making rail transit systems, known for their high capacity and low emissions, essential components of sustainable urban infrastructure. While numerous studies have examined how the built environment impacts transit ridership, the complex interactions among these factors warrant further investigation. Recent advancements in the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) offer a robust methodological foundation for analyzing the complex joint influence of multiple built environment factors. LLMs not only can comprehend the physical meaning of variables but also exhibit strong non-linear modeling and logical reasoning capabilities. This study introduces an LLM-based framework to examine how built environment factors and station characteristics shape the transit ridership dynamics by utilizing DeepSeek-R1. We develop a 4D + N variable system for a more nuanced description of the built environment of the station area which includes density, diversity, design, destination accessibility, and station characteristics, leveraging multi-source data such as points of interest (POIs), road network data, housing prices, and population data. Then, the proposed approach is validated using data from Qingdao, China, examining both single-factor and multi-factor effects on transit peak-hour ridership at the macro level (across all stations) and the meso level (specific station types). First, the variables that have a substantial effect on peak-hour transit ridership at both the macro and meso levels are discussed. Second, key and latent factor combinations are identified. Notably, some factors may appear to have limited importance at the macro level, yet they can substantially influence the peak-hour ridership when interacting with other factors. Our findings enable policymakers to formulate a balanced mix of soft and hard policies, such as integrating a flexitime policy with enhancements in active travel infrastructure to increase the attractiveness of public transit. The proposed analytical framework is adaptable across regions and applicable to various transportation modes. These insights can guide transportation managers and policymakers while optimizing Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) strategies to enhance the sustainability of the entire transportation system. Full article

This paper examines how the slope of the merit-order curve and the share of non-zero-dollar dispatched energy affect photovoltaic (PV) price cannibalization and the declining market value of all generation types. Using historical merit-order data from Alberta, Canada—during its coal-to-gas transition—we simulated the introduction of zero-marginal-cost PV offers. The increased PV penetration rapidly suppresses midday electricity prices, forming a “duck curve” that challenges solar project economics. Emission reductions improve with rising carbon prices, indicating environmental benefits despite declining market revenues. Years with steeper merit-order slopes and lower non-zero-dollar dispatch shares show intensified price cannibalization and a reduced PV market value. The integration of battery storage alongside PV significantly flattened daily price profiles—raising the trough prices during charging and lowering the highest prices during discharging. While this reduces price volatility, it also diminishes the market value of all generation types, as batteries discharge at zero marginal cost during high-price hours. Battery arbitrage remains limited in low- and moderate-price regimes but becomes more profitable under high-price regimes. Overall, these dynamics underscore the challenges of integrating large-scale PV in energy-only markets, where price cannibalization erodes long-term investment signals for clean energy technologies. These insights inform sustainable energy policy design aimed at supporting decarbonization, and investment viability in liberalized electricity markets. Full article