Search Results (51)

This paper investigates the macro-financial consequences of recent monetary policy tightening cycles, focusing on the distinction between soft and hard landings. Using an OLS regression framework applied to U.S. and Euro Area data from 1994 to 2023, we analyze the response of equity and bond markets, inflation, and GDP growth to central bank interest rate hikes. The findings suggest that, in most past tightening episodes, central banks succeeded in engineering soft landings without severe disruptions to market conditions or economic growth. However, the current post-pandemic context may lead to a two-stage adjustment, as inflation persistence and geopolitical shocks alter standard transmission dynamics. The study contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the timing and intensity of rate hikes, offering historical insights and empirical evidence from capital market signals. Full article

Icing disasters can significantly reduce the reliability of overhead transmission lines, while limited budgets of power grid enterprises constrain the scale of investment. To improve investment efficiency, it is essential to balance the reliability and economic performance of anti-icing strategies. Most existing studies on the performance evaluation of anti-icing strategies for transmission lines focus primarily on reliability, neglecting their economic implications. To address this gap, this paper proposes a time-evolution-based performance evaluation model for overhead transmission line anti-icing strategies. First, a lifetime distribution function of transmission lines during the icing period is constructed based on the Nelson–Aalen method and metal deformation theory. Subsequently, a quantitative risk model for iced transmission lines is developed, incorporating the failure rate, value of lost load, and amount of lost load, providing a monetary-based indicator for icing risk. Finally, a performance evaluation method for anti-icing strategies is developed based on the risk quantification model. Implementation cost is treated as risk control expenditure, and strategy performance is assessed by integrating it with residual risk cost to identify the optimal strategy through composite cost analysis. The proposed model enables a comprehensive assessment of anti-icing strategy performance, improving the accuracy of strategy selection and achieving a dynamic balance between implementation cost and transmission line reliability. The case study results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reduces the risk of failure in overhead transmission lines under ice disasters while lowering anti-icing costs. Compared with two existing strategy selection approaches, the strategy based on this method achieved 46.11% and 32.56% lower composite cost, and 60.26% and 48.41% lower residual risk cost, respectively. Full article

Hepatitis C is an infectious liver disease which contributes to an estimated 400,000 deaths each year. The disease is caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and is spread by direct blood contact between infected and susceptible individuals. While the magnitude of its impact on human populations has prompted a growing body of scientific work, the current epidemiological models of HCV transmission among injecting drug users treat risk behaviors as fixed parameters rather than as outcomes of a dynamic, decision-making process. Our study addresses this gap by constructing a game-theoretic model to investigate the implications of voluntary participation in clean needle exchange programs on the spread of HCV among this high-risk population. Individual drug users weigh the (perceived) cost of clean equipment usage relative to the (perceived) cost of infection, as well as the strategies adopted by the rest of the population, and look for a selfishly optimal level of protection. We find that the spread of HCV in this population can theoretically be eliminated if individuals use sterile equipment approximately two-thirds of the time. Achieving this level of compliance, however, requires that the real and perceived costs of obtaining sterile equipment are essentially zero. Our study demonstrates a robust method for integrating game theory with epidemiological models to analyze voluntary health interventions. It provides a quantitative justification for public health policies that eliminate all barriers—both monetary and social—to comprehensive harm-reduction services. Full article

This paper examines cryptocurrency shock transmission to financial markets and the macroeconomy using a Bayesian structural VAR with Pandemic Priors from 2015 to 2024. By affecting overall risk appetite, cryptocurrency price shocks generate positive financial market spillovers, accounting for 18% of equity and 27% of commodity price fluctuations. Real economic effects are significant in driving investment but remain limited, contributing only 4% to unemployment and 6% to industrial production variance. However, cryptocurrency shocks explain 18% of price-level forecast error variance at long horizons. Narrative analysis reveals sentiment and technology as primary shock drivers. These findings demonstrate cryptocurrency’s deep financial system integration with important inflation implications for monetary policy. Full article

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high). We show that global geopolitical risk has both detriments and benefits sides—it is a threat and an opportunity for monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Interacted local projections (LPs) reveal short–medium-term volatility or dampening effects, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty might weaken the immediate impact of monetary policy on output and prices. In uncertain environments (e.g., high geopolitical risk), economic agents—households and businesses—may adopt a wait-and-see approach. They delay consumption and investment decisions, which could initially mute the impact of monetary policy. Agents may delay their responses until they gain more information about geopolitical developments. Once clarity emerges, they may adjust their behavior, aligning with the long-run effects observed in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Furthermore, we identify an exacerbating investor sentiment following tightening monetary policy, during global and local geopolitical episodes. The impact is even more pronounced under conditions of high domestic weakness. Evidence is extracted through a novel composite index that we construct using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our results have implications for the Central Bank’s monetary policy conduct and communication practices. Full article

This paper revisits the international finance trilemma by analyzing how different monetary policy objectives and exchange rate regimes shape the transmission of global risk shocks. Using a structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SVARX), we examine the monetary policy responses and exchange rate fluctuations of ASEAN+4 economies—China, Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong—to external shocks including U.S. monetary policy changes, oil price fluctuations, global policy uncertainty, and financial risk during 2010–2022. Economies are grouped according to their trilemma configurations: floating exchange rates with free capital flows, fixed exchange rates, and capital control regimes. Our findings broadly support the trilemma hypothesis: fixed-rate economies align with U.S. interest rate movements, capital control economies retain greater monetary autonomy, and open, floating regimes show partial responsiveness. More importantly, monetary responses vary by global shock type: U.S. monetary policy drives the most synchronized policy reactions, while oil price and uncertainty shocks produce more heterogeneous outcomes. Robustness checks include alternative model specifications, where global shocks are treated as endogenous, and extensions, such as using Japan’s monetary base as a proxy for unconventional monetary policy. These results refine the empirical understanding of the trilemma by showing that its dynamics depend not only on institutional arrangements but also on the nature of global shocks—underscoring the need for more tailored and, where possible, regionally coordinated monetary policy strategies. Full article

Digital agriculture has rapidly developed in the last decade in many countries where the share of agricultural production is a significant part of the total volume of gross production. Digital agroecosystems are developed using a variety of IT solutions, software and hardware tools, wired and wireless data transmission technologies, open source code, Open API, etc. A special place in agroecosystems is occupied by electronic payment technologies and blockchain technologies, which allow farmers and other agricultural enterprises to conduct commodity and monetary transactions with suppliers, creditors, and buyers of products. Such ecosystems contribute to the sustainable development of agriculture, agricultural engineering, and management of production and financial operations in the agricultural industry and related industries, as well as in other sectors of the economy of a number of countries. The introduction of crypto solutions in the agricultural sector is designed to create integrated platforms aimed at helping farmers manage supply lines or gain access to financial services. At the same time, there are risks of illegal use of computing power for cryptocurrency mining—cryptojacking. This article offers a thorough risk assessment of cryptojacking attacks on endpoint systems, focusing on identifying critical vulnerabilities within IT infrastructures and outlining practical preventive measures. The analysis examines key attack vectors—including compromised websites, infected applications, and supply chain infiltration—and explores how unauthorized cryptocurrency mining degrades system performance and endangers data security. The research methodology combines an evaluation of current cybersecurity trends, a review of specialized literature, and a controlled experiment simulating cryptojacking attacks. The findings highlight the importance of multi-layered protection mechanisms and ongoing system monitoring to detect malicious activities at an early stage. Full article

To stabilize economies, central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing following the global financial crisis. Although much research has been done on how quantitative easing affects financial markets, the influence of central bank transparency on bank profitability under such policies is still underexplored. This paper looks at how central bank transparency affects bank profitability in advanced countries under unconventional monetary policy. Using a panel dataset of commercial banks from 25 advanced economies (2013–2019), we apply a two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to handle any endogeneity. Focusing on central bank transparency as a main transmission route, the model accounts for macroeconomic factors and bank-specific characteristics. The results show that central bank transparency greatly improves bank profitability together with quantitative easing. Although other elements, macroeconomic conditions and bank-specific characteristics, support transparency as a vital channel via which monetary policy influences the operation of the banking sector. This paper provides recommendations for legislators trying to enhance the effectiveness of unconventional policies in various institutional contexts by highlighting the need for central bank transparency as a channel for monetary policy efficacy. Full article

This paper examines the regional dimension of monetary policy transmission through the component of the bank lending channel in Indonesia. Understanding the effectiveness of this transmission channel at a regional level is crucial, given the diverse economic characteristics across Indonesian provinces. We employ panel regression to analyze the panel data consisting of provincial quarterly data from 2010–2023 for 33 provinces in Indonesia. The robustness of the results is further assessed through GMM estimation techniques. We find evidence of the bank lending channel through the use of the policy rate. Our findings are meaningful in the SME and consumer lending channel and are also more profound in Java than in the non-Java region. Further, using GMM estimation, we show that our results are robust. Our study highlights the significant role of regional differences in Indonesia when examining monetary policy effectiveness. Policymakers should therefore consider regional disparities and lending categories to enhance the efficacy of monetary policy interventions. Full article

This paper constructs a theoretical framework integrating health risk transmission, remote work constraints, and spatial equilibrium to analyze the impact mechanisms of major public health events on the real estate market. This study finds that pandemics affect market equilibrium through multiple channels, including changes in residents’ utility functions, the reshaping of labor market structures, and adjustments in location choices. The model combines the SIR model from epidemiology with spatial economics to depict the endogenous decision mechanism of health risks. By constructing a two-sector general equilibrium model that includes remote work sectors, this study reveals the impact of technological change on the spatial structure of the real estate market. Based on the mobility preference theory, an asset pricing framework incorporating health risk premiums is established. Comparative static analysis shows that the health risk transmission coefficient influences housing prices through two channels: directly lowering willingness to pay and indirectly affecting the distribution of population density. Dynamic analysis indicates that, under specific parameter conditions, the market exhibits asymptotic stability. Policy simulation results show that the transmission effects of monetary and fiscal policies exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, requiring policymakers to pay more attention to regional differences. This study not only enriches the analytical tools of real estate economics but also provides theoretical support for relevant policy formulation. Full article

Background: Vaccine hesitancy represents a significant global health challenge that greatly hinders public health efforts focused on managing the transmission of infectious diseases. A wealth of original research conducted worldwide has examined various incentives that could help alleviate vaccine hesitancy and increase vaccination rates. Although some findings are conflicting, no comprehensive review has yet assessed the overall effectiveness of these strategies. This study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by examining how financial incentives influence people’s willingness to undergo vaccination. Methods: In August 2024, we extensively searched four databases for studies focusing on financial incentives and vaccination rates. Examples of financial incentives included lottery tickets and hypothetical or physical monetary rewards ranging in various amounts depending on the study. We selected nineteen relevant articles from a larger pool and evaluated them for validity and bias. Results: Around eighty percent of the research focused on COVID-19 vaccines, driven by the ongoing pandemic and the debates surrounding their use. Most of the studies indicated a positive influence of financial incentives on vaccination rates, although they often came with a higher risk of bias. Conversely, several studies suggest that financial incentives do not result in benefits. Instead, they highlight other factors that have a more profound effect on influencing people to undergo vaccination. The remaining studies are inconclusive regarding the effectiveness of financial incentives, concluding the need for further research. The strategies to mitigate these concerns included a combination of legal and monetary incentives. Summary: The effectiveness of financial incentives in boosting vaccination rates seems to differ significantly based on the region and context. They tend to be more effective in economically disadvantaged developing countries. In contrast, in developed nations, they may be ineffective or counterproductive due to various confounding factors such as financial background, lack of trust in the healthcare system, and/or lack of patient education. In resource-rich areas, educational programs often yield better results, and addressing widespread mistrust in healthcare systems and governmental policies through transparency is essential. Ultimately, employing tailored incentives alongside public education could enhance vaccination acceptance, particularly in culturally diverse countries like the United States, where understanding community preferences is crucial. Full article

Chronic hepatitis B (HBV), alongside hepatitis D virus (HDV) super-/co-infection and chronic hepatitis C (HCV), are major contributors to cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality. Despite significant progress in antiviral treatments and HBV vaccination, viral hepatitis remains a global health burden. Vulnerable populations, such as those experiencing homelessness, migrants, and economically disadvantaged groups, are disproportionately impacted by these infections, often facing barriers to care and exclusion from traditional health systems. This leads to undiagnosed cases and ongoing transmission, undermining global efforts to eliminate HBV and HCV by 2030, as outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Recent studies highlight the importance of tailored interventions to address health inequalities. For instance, on-site community-based screening initiatives targeting marginalized groups have shown promise, achieving higher linkage to care rates without monetary incentives. These approaches not only enhance diagnosis but also facilitate integration into healthcare systems, addressing both public health and social disparities. This review underscores the need for targeted strategies to promote the early detection and management of HBV and HCV in underserved populations. Such efforts are critical to advancing the WHO’s elimination goals, improving health outcomes, and addressing the broader social determinants of health. Full article

Since the Great 2008 Recession, central banks around the world have been coping with monetary consequences that highlight structural costs of the economic system and the rise of unconventional monetary measures. This research aims to capture the heterogeneous effects of expansionary balance sheet (Quantitative easing) policy on the real effective exchange rate and current account balance under the different exchange rate regimes in crisis circumstances. The sample is structured of two groups of EU countries differentiated by level of monetary autonomy: EZ members (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, and Spain) are represented by countries with the highest level of asset purchases by ECB and emerging monetary autonomous EU economies (Czech, Hungary, Poland, and Romania). Empirical findings are based on the framework of cross-sectional dependent, non-stationary, heterogeneous, dynamic panels using the (Pooled) Mean Group estimator during the 2014Q1–2023Q1 time horizon. Results indicate a positive long-run relationship between the central bank balance sheet assets, the real interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. A negative long-term relationship with the current account balance is confirmed, suggesting a diminishing external position. While error-correction parameters are significant and heterogeneous, research confirms higher real effective exchange rate reaction for the EZ members with higher adjustment toward worsening competitiveness along with external balance. Full article

This study investigates the dual dynamics of investment shocks and policy responses in stabilizing South Korea’s macroeconomy during the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing a Bayesian DSGE framework. The model integrates sophisticated mathematical components, including stochastic differential equations, Bayesian inference, and impulse response functions, to analyze the transmission mechanisms of investment shocks and the relative efficacy of fiscal and monetary interventions. The estimation is conducted through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. Using data from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2023, the analysis quantifies the pandemic-induced shocks’ impact on critical macroeconomic indicators, including enterprise output, household consumption, employment, and investment. The findings reveal that heightened investment costs significantly constrained economic performance, with fiscal measures, such as increased government spending and targeted stimulus packages, demonstrating superior stabilization effects compared to monetary interventions. These results emphasize the importance of well-coordinated policy responses in mitigating economic disruptions and enhancing resilience during crises. This study not only provides novel insights into the mathematical modeling of economic stabilization strategies but also offers actionable recommendations for policymakers navigating pandemic-induced challenges. Full article

Since the implementation of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the US in response to the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been increasing concerns that these forward guidance and quantitative easing programmes have had spillover effects on global equity markets. We specifically question whether the implementation of these UMPs have had spillovers to African equities, which have been previously speculated to be decoupled from global markets and shocks. Time-varying-parameter (TVP) frequency connectedness and wavelet coherency methods were used to examine the dynamic time-frequency spillovers between daily time series of the US shadow short rate and African equities returns/volatility between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2023. On one hand, the TVP frequency connectedness analysis reveals robust long-run spillovers from US monetary policy to African equity markets during specific periods: 2009, 2013, 2020, and 2021. These coincide with instances when the Federal Reserve announced their transition from conventional to unconventional monetary practices and vice versa. On the other hand, the wavelet analysis provides insights into the ‘sign’ of the spillovers, indicating mixed phase dynamics during UMPs responding to the GFC. In contrast, anti-phase or negative co-movements characterize UMPs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic, implying that these policies increased both returns and volatilities to African equities. Altogether, we conclude that US UMP has increasing deteriorated market efficiency and amplified portfolio risk in African equities whilst during ‘normalization’ periods US monetary policy has little transmission effect. Full article