Search Results (18)

With the growing global demand for clean energy, the accuracy of wind-power forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of power systems. However, wind-power generation is significantly influenced by meteorological conditions and is characterized by high uncertainty and multiscale fluctuations. Traditional recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, although capable of handling sequential data, struggle with modeling long-term temporal dependencies due to the vanishing gradient problem; thus, they are now rarely used. Recently, Transformer models have made notable progress in sequence modeling compared to RNNs and LSTM models. Nevertheless, when dealing with long wind-power sequences, their quadratic computational complexity (O(L²)) leads to low efficiency, and their global attention mechanism often fails to capture local periodic features accurately, tending to overemphasize redundant information while overlooking key temporal patterns. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a wind-power forecasting method based on dimension-transformed collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (DTCMMA). This method first employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to automatically identify the main periodic components in wind-power data, reconstructing the one-dimensional time series as a two-dimensional spatiotemporal representation, thereby explicitly encoding periodic features. Based on this, a collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (CMMA) mechanism is designed, which hierarchically integrates channel, spatial, and pixel attention to adaptively capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Considering the geometric characteristics of the reconstructed data, asymmetric convolution kernels are adopted to enhance feature extraction efficiency. Experiments on multiple wind-farm datasets and energy-related datasets demonstrate that DTCMMA outperforms mainstream methods such as Transformer, iTransformer, and TimeMixer in long-sequence forecasting tasks, achieving improvements in MSE performance by 34.22%, 2.57%, and 0.51%, respectively. The model’s training speed also surpasses that of the fastest baseline by 300%, significantly improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. This provides an efficient and accurate solution for wind-power forecasting and contributes to the further development and application of wind energy in the global energy mix. Full article

This paper presents a robust optimization-based approach for voyage and power generation scheduling to enhance the economic efficiency and reliability of electric propulsion ships powered by polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) and battery energy storage systems (BESSs). The scheduling method is formulated considering generation cost curves of PEMFCs with mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and is extended to a robust optimization framework that accounts for marine environmental uncertainties. The robust optimization approach, implemented via the column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) method, ensures stable operation under various uncertainty scenarios, such as wave speed and direction influenced by wind and tidal currents. To validate the proposed method, a simulation was conducted under realistic operational conditions, followed by a case study comparing the MILP and robust optimization approaches in terms of economic efficiency and reliability. Additionally, the optimization model incorporated degradation costs associated with PEMFCs and BESSs to account for long-term operational efficiency. The case study assessed the performance of both methods under load variation scenarios across different marine environmental uncertainties. Full article

Variable-speed pumped storage has the advantages of flexible adjustment and low economic cost, which can reduce the adverse effects caused by a high proportion of new energy access. In order to reduce the system operation risk caused by the randomness of new energy output, a distribution robust optimization method for an active distribution network with variable-speed pumped storage is proposed. Firstly, considering the probability distribution uncertainty of wind–solar prediction error, a two-stage distributed robust optimization model of an active distribution network is constructed with the sum of day-ahead operating cost, intra-day adjustment cost expectation and conditional value-at-risk as the objective function. Then, the probability distribution fuzzy set is constructed based on the norm distance, and the fuzzy set boundary is determined by a data-driven method. Finally, the model is transformed into a mixed integer second-order cone optimization model by a linearization method and duality theory, and verified by an example. The results show that the proposed model can effectively reduce the operation risk caused by the uncertainty of operating cost and wind–solar output and reduce the operational costs and the risks associated with uncertainty in wind and solar power output. Full article

This paper presents a capacity planning framework for a microgrid based on renewable energy sources and supported by a hybrid battery energy storage system which is composed of three different battery types, including lithium-ion (Li-ion), lead acid (LA), and second-life Li-ion batteries for supplying electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. The objective of this framework is to determine the optimal size for the wind generation systems, PV generation systems, and hybrid battery energy storage systems (HBESS) with the least cost. The framework is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which incorporates constraints for battery ageing and the amount of unmet load for each year. The system uncertainties are managed by conducting the studies for various scenarios, generated and reduced by generative adversarial networks (GAN) and the k-means clustering algorithm for wind speed, global horizontal irradiation, and EV charging load. The studies are conducted for three levels of unmet load, and the outputs are compared for these reliability levels. The results indicate that the cost of hybrid energy storage is lower than individual battery technologies (21% compared to Li-ion, 4.6% compared to LA, and 6% compared to second-life Li-ion batteries). Additionally, by using HBESS, the capacity fade of LA batteries is decreased (for the unmet load levels of 0, 1%, 5%, 4.2%, 6.1%, and 9.7%, respectively), and the replacement of the system is deferred proportional to the degradation reduction. Full article

In recent years, growing interest has emerged in investigating the integration of energy storage and green hydrogen production systems with renewable energy generators. These integrated systems address uncertainties related to renewable resource availability and electricity prices, mitigating profit loss caused by forecasting errors. This paper focuses on the operation of a hybrid farm (HF), combining an alkaline electrolyzer (AEL) and a battery energy storage system (BESS) with a wind turbine to form a comprehensive HF. The HF operates in both hydrogen and day-ahead electricity markets. A linear mathematical model is proposed to optimize energy management, considering electrolyzer operation at partial loads and accounting for degradation costs while maintaining a straightforward formulation for power system optimization. Day-ahead market scheduling and real-time operation are formulated as a progressive mixed-integer linear program (MILP), extended to address uncertainties in wind speed and electricity prices through a two-stage stochastic optimization model. A bootstrap sampling strategy is introduced to enhance the stochastic model’s performance using the same sampled data. Results demonstrate how the strategies outperform traditional Monte Carlo and deterministic approaches in handling uncertainties, increasing profits up to 4% per year. Additionally, a simulation framework has been developed for validating this approach and conducting different case studies. Full article

Mangroves are a natural feature that enhance the resilience of natural and built coastal environments worldwide. They mitigate the impacts of hurricanes by dissipating energy from storm surges and waves, as well as reducing wind speeds. To incorporate mangroves into storm surge simulations, surface roughness parameters that accurately capture mangrove effects are required. These effects are typically parameterized using Manning’s n bottom friction coefficient for overland flow and aerodynamic roughness length (z₀) for wind speed reduction. This paper presents the suggested values for these surface roughness parameters based on field observation and a novel voxel-based processing method for laser scanning point clouds. The recommended Manning’s n and z₀ values for mangroves in southwest Florida are 0.138 and 2.34 m, respectively. The data were also used to retrain a previously developed random forest model to predict these surface roughness parameters based on point cloud statistics. The addition of the mangrove sites to the training data produced mixed results, improving the predictions of z₀ while weakening the predictions of Manning’s n. The paper concludes that machine learning models developed to predict environmental attributes using small datasets with predictor features containing subjective estimates are sensitive to the uncertainty in the field observations. Full article

The impact of urbanization and the sensitivity of urban canopy parameters (UCPs) on a typical summer rainfall event in Hangzhou, China, is investigated using three groups of ensemble experiments. In this case, urbanization leads to higher temperatures, lower mixing ratios, lower wind speeds before precipitation, and more precipitation in and around the urban area. Both the thermal and dynamical effects of urbanization contribute to an increase in temperature and precipitation, with thermal effects contributing 71.2% and 63.8% to the temperature and precipitation increase, respectively, while the thermal and dynamical impacts cause the opposite changes to the mixing ratio and wind speed. Compared to the other three meteorological elements, the model has the largest uncertainty in the simulation of precipitation, which includes the sensitivity of the different parameterization schemes to the simulation of precipitation in urban areas, and the uncertainty brought by the urban effect on precipitation is not confined within the city but extends to the surrounding areas as well. Temperature and mixing ratio are more sensitive to thermal-related UCPs, while the wind speed is mainly affected by the structural parameters. These variations, however, are sometimes contradictory to precipitation changes, which further adds to the complexity of precipitation simulation. Full article

Natural gas (NG) leaks from below-ground pipelines pose safety, economic, and environmental hazards. Despite walking surveys using handheld methane (CH₄) detectors to locate leaks, accurately triaging the severity of a leak remains challenging. It is currently unclear whether CH₄ detectors used in walking surveys could be used to identify large leaks that require an immediate response. To explore this, we used above-ground downwind CH₄ concentration measurements made during controlled emission experiments over a range of environmental conditions. These data were then used as the input to a novel modeling framework, the ESCAPE⁻¹ model, to estimate the below-ground leak rates. Using 10-minute averaged CH₄ mixing/meteorological data and filtering out wind speed < 2 m s⁻¹/unstable atmospheric data, the ESCAPE⁻¹ model estimates small leaks (0.2 kg CH₄ h⁻¹) and medium leaks (0.8 kg CH₄ h⁻¹) with a bias of −85%/+100% and −50%/+64%, respectively. Longer averaging (≥3 h) results in a 55% overestimation for small leaks and a 6% underestimation for medium leaks. These results suggest that as the wind speed increases or the atmosphere becomes more stable, the accuracy and precision of the leak rate calculated by the ESCAPE⁻¹ model decrease. With an uncertainty of ±55%, our results show that CH₄ mixing ratios measured using industry-standard detectors could be used to prioritize leak repairs. Full article

A downburst is a typical local highly intensive wind all over the world, which is attributed to be the main cause of wind damage to transmission lines in inland areas worldwide. The collapse accidents of transmission towers under the downburst still occur every year. Therefore, it is of great significance to assess the safety of the transmission towers under downbursts. The motivation of the present study is to propose a fragility assessment method for transmission towers under the action of a downburst considering the uncertainty of wind-resistance capacity and the stochastic wind load effect. First, the downburst wind field of the transmission tower with different wind attack angles and different radial distances is simulated according to the mixed stochastic model. Then, random material characteristic samples are generated by the Latin hypercube sampling technique and applied to establish uncertain finite element models for transmission towers. Next, the static nonlinear buckling analysis is carried out by numerical methods to determine the ultimate capacity under the downburst wind load. The parameter analysis of different wind attack angles and radial distances between the downburst and the tower is conducted to determine the most unfavorable location of the maximum response. The failure mode of the transmission tower and the probabilities of the initial failure main members are summarized. Finally, the fragility curves of the transmission tower under the downburst and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) wind are compared. The results show that the maximum response is located at R = 1.6D. Most of the initial buckling members are located close to the first section of the tower. The fragility curves of the tower under the downburst are more dangerous than the ABL wind with the attack angle increasing from 0° to 90°. Furthermore, considering the probability model of intensity and direction of the downburst and based on the previous fragility analysis, the collapse probability of the transmission tower caused by the downburst is obtained. By probability analysis of the parameters, including layout conditions, different directions, and different wind speeds, it is found that the most favorable arrangement is 157.5°, and the most unfavorable arrangement is 112.5°. Full article

Due to the inherent uncertainty of wind conditions as well as the price unpredictability in the competitive electricity market, wind power producers are exposed to the risk of concurrent fluctuations in both price and volume. Therefore, it is imperative to develop strategies to effectively stabilize their revenues, or cash flows, when trading wind power output in the electricity market. In light of this context, we present a novel endeavor to construct multivariate derivatives for mitigating the risk of fluctuating cash flows that are associated with trading wind power generation in electricity markets. Our approach involves leveraging nonparametric techniques to identify optimal payoff structures or compute the positions of derivatives with fine granularity, utilizing multiple underlying indexes including spot electricity price, area-wide wind power production index, and local wind conditions. These derivatives, referred to as mixed derivatives, offer advantages in terms of hedge effectiveness and contracting efficiency. Notably, we develop a methodology to enhance the hedge effects by modeling multivariate functions of wind speed and wind direction, incorporating periodicity constraints on wind direction via tensor product spline functions. By conducting an empirical analysis using data from Japan, we elucidate the extent to which the hedge effectiveness is improved by constructing mixed derivatives from various perspectives. Furthermore, we compare the hedge performance between high-granular (hourly) and low-granular (daily) formulations, revealing the advantages of utilizing a high-granular hedging approach. Full article

Dealing with multi-objective problems has several interesting benefits, one of which is that it supplies the decision-maker with complete information regarding the Pareto front, as well as a clear overview of the various trade-offs that are involved in the problem. The selection of such a representative set is, in and of itself, a multi-objective problem that must take into consideration the number of choices to show the uniformity of the representation and/or the coverage of the representation in order to ensure the quality of the solution. In this study, day-ahead scheduling has been transformed into a multi-objective optimization problem due to the inclusion of objectives, such as the operating cost of multi-energy multi-microgrids (MMGs) and the profit of the Distribution Company (DISCO). The purpose of the proposed system is to determine the best day-ahead operation of a combined heat and power (CHP) unit, gas boiler, energy storage, and demand response program, as well as the transaction of electricity and natural gas (NG). Electricity and gas are traded by MGs with DISCO at prices that are dynamic and fixed, respectively. Through scenario generation and probability density functions, the uncertainties of wind speed, solar irradiation, electrical, and heat demands have been considered. By using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for scenario reduction, the high number of generated scenarios has been significantly reduced. The ɛ-constraint approach was used and solved as mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) to obtain a solution that meets the needs of both of these nonlinear objective functions. Full article

Aiming at the impact of the uncertainty of source load on the optimal scheduling in an integrated energy system (IES), in this paper, based on hybrid resolution modeling and hybrid instruction cycle scheduling technology, three time scales of day-ahead, intra-day rolling and real-time feedback optimization scheduling models are established, respectively, with the objectives of the economic optimal daily operation of the system, the minimum sum of the operation cost of energy purchase and wind curtailment penalty cost in the rolling control time domain, and the minimum adjustment amount of equipment output power. Then, the chaotic gravitational search algorithm (CGSA) is used to solve the problem, and the composite coordination optimization operation strategy of IES with mixed time scales based on CGSA is proposed. In the example, the comparison between the multi-timescale scheduling plan and the actual output, the comparison of the system scheduling results under different strategies and the comparison of different optimization algorithms show that the proposed optimization operation strategy is beneficial to optimize the energy flow distribution, reduce the system operation cost, improve the IES economy and optimization speed. Full article

In order to better accommodate the uncertainty induced from a high penetration of wind power during load recovery, a method of load restoration flexible optimization is developed in this paper. First, the idea of adopting flexible operational constraints when optimizing schemes is presented so as not to be too conservative in the application of wind power output during restoration. Further, conditional value at risk (CVaR) is employed to define an operational constraint slacking factor (OCSF) through analyzing the extent of constraint exceeding the prescribed limits when wind speed is taking the value outside its confidence interval. Adopting OCSF, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model of flexible load restoration, is constructed based on the primary model by substituting adjustable constraints for rigid constraints, which can be solved with CPLEX. Finally, the New England 10-unit 39-bus power system is used to demonstrate the proposed method, and the results explicitly indicate that the amount of load picked up can be effectively increased and an operational security can be guaranteed as well. Full article

The fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR) attempts to quantify the amount of enery that is absorbed by vegetation for use in photosynthesis. Despite the importance of fPAR, there has been little research into how fPAR may change with biome and latitude, or the extent and number of ground networks required to validate satellite products. This study provides the first attempt to quantify the variability and uncertainties related to in-situ 2-flux fPAR estimation within a tropical dry forest (TDF) via co-located sensors. Using the wireless sensor network (WSN) at the Santa Rosa National Park Environmental Monitoring Super Site (Guanacaste, Costa Rica), this study analyzes the 2-flux fPAR response to seasonal, environmental, and meteorological influences over a period of five years (2013–2017). Using statistical tests on the distribution of fPAR measurements throughout the days and seasons based on the sky condition, solar zenith angle, and wind-speed, we determine which conditions reduce variability, and their relative impact on in-situ fPAR estimation. Additionally, using a generalized linear mixed effects model, we determine the relative impact of the factors above, as well as soil moisture on the prediction of fPAR. Our findings suggest that broadleaf deciduous forests, diffuse light conditions, and low wind patterns reduce variability in fPAR, whereas higher winds and direct sunlight increase variability between co-located sensors. The co-located sensors used in this study were found to agree within uncertanties; however, this uncertainty is dominated by the sensor drift term, requiring routine recalibration of the sensor to remain within a defined criteria. We found that for the Apogee SQ-110 sensor using the manufacturer calibration, recalibration around every 4 years is needed to ensure that it remains within the 10% global climate observation system (GCOS) requirement. We finally also find that soil moisture is a significant predictor of the distribution and magnitude of fPAR, and particularly impacts the onset of senescence for TDFs. Full article

The prediction of fog is a challenging task in operational weather forecast. Due to its dependency on small-scale processes, numerical weather models struggle to deal with under scale features, resulting in uncertainties in the fog forecast. Unawareness of the onset time and the duration of fog leads to disproportionate impact on open-air activities, especially in aviation. Nevertheless, in a small sized country such as Portugal mainland, the fog varies greatly. The traffic of the two busiest Portuguese international airports of Porto and Lisbon is affected by the occurrence of fog at different times of the year. The fog occurrence at Porto is a predominant winter phenomenon and a summer one at Lisbon. Observational variables and their trend are local indicators of favouring conditions to the fog’s onset, such as cooling, water vapour saturation and turbulent mixing. A dataset corresponding to 17 years of half-hourly METAR from the airports of Porto and Lisbon is used to diagnose the pre-fog conditioning. Two diagnostic models are proposed to assess pre-fog conditions. The first model is adapted from the statistical method proposed by Menut et al. (2014), which performs a diagnosis from key variables trend, such as temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. Thresholds are defined from the METAR samples in the 6 h period prior to the formation of fog. Due to the local character of fog, the presented thresholds are the most appropriate ones for each airport. The predictability of fog is then assessed using observations. The second approach consists of neural networks such as a fully connected (FC) network and a recurrent neural network (RNN), which are especially well suited for time series. By experimenting with different types of neural networks (NN), we will try to capture the connection between the temporal evolution of measured variables in the dataset and the fog onset. These experiments will include different time windows to measure its influence on prediction performance. Full article