Search Results (237)

Population aging poses significant challenges to the sustainability of pension systems. This study presents an integrated methodological approach that uniquely combines actuarial life-cycle modeling with agent-based simulation to assess the potential of Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a dual lever for enhancing retiree welfare and supporting pension system resilience under demographic and financial uncertainty. We explore Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a potential financial instrument to support retirees while alleviating pressure on public pensions. Unlike prior research that treats individual decisions or policy outcomes in isolation, our hybrid model explicitly captures feedback loops between household-level behavior and system-wide financial stability. To test our hypothesis that RMLs can improve individual consumption outcomes and bolster systemic solvency, we develop a hybrid model combining actuarial techniques and agent-based simulations, incorporating stochastic housing prices, longevity risk, regulatory capital requirements, and demographic shifts. This dual-framework enables a structured investigation of how micro-level financial decisions propagate through market dynamics, influencing solvency, pricing, and adoption trends. Our central hypothesis is that reverse mortgages, when actuarially calibrated and macroprudentially regulated, enhance individual financial well-being while preserving long-run solvency at the system level. Simulation results indicate that RMLs can improve consumption smoothing, raise expected utility for retirees, and contribute to long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, we introduce a dynamic regulatory mechanism that adjusts capital buffers based on evolving market and demographic conditions, enhancing system resilience. Our simulation design supports multi-scenario testing of financial robustness and policy outcomes, providing a transparent tool for stress-testing RML adoption at scale. These findings suggest that, when well-regulated, RMLs can serve as a viable supplement to traditional retirement financing. Rather than offering prescriptive guidance, this framework provides insights to policymakers, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to integrate RMLs into broader pension strategies. Full article

The importance of non-performing loans (NPLs) for the stability of financial sectors is difficult to overestimate. The NPL level depends on numerous factors; this study’s goal is to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on NPLs with the mediation effect of foreign, saving and social factors in Kazakhstan’s banking sector. To determine the affecting factors, the authors performed a systematic literature review. To determine the dependencies between constructs, the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) method was used. Macroeconomic factors’ direct effect on non-performing loans (NPLs) was examined; a significant negative dependence was determined. The mediation effect of foreign, saving, and social factors was investigated. Foreign factors have a mediation effect, strengthening the dependence between macro factors and NPLs. Nevertheless, they do not have a mediating effect; moreover, they balance and make the effect of macro factors on NPLs statistically insignificant. These findings allow policy-makers to stabilize the situation on NPLs in the financial markets of developing countries like Kazakhstan by directly influencing not only the financial sector but also other sectors of the national economy. Full article

In the last two decades, the prevalence of South Asian migrant workers has significantly increased in the UAE’s construction sector, and they are under huge debt. Although researchers heavily stress the role of employers in migrant workers’ debt, the role of debt before departure has not been investigated. Thus, this study bridges this gap in the literature in the context of South Asian construction migrant workers. The objective of this study is to investigate how informal recruitment fees and debt arrangements contribute to bonded labor and dependency among migrant workers. A qualitative approach was used to conduct in-depth interviews with 30 South Asian migrants employed in the construction sector. This article highlights how pre-migration debt—which is often accrued through informal loans and exploitative recruitment fees—has been underexplored in migration studies. Drawing on interviews with 30 South Asian laborers, this study identifies five interconnected themes: pre-migration debt bondage, exploitative lending practices, lack of legal recourse, emotional manipulation, and a cycle of dependency. While UAE labor policies have improved, the real vulnerabilities lie in the informal recruitment systems and weak oversight in migrant workers’ countries of origin. Consequently, five themes were generated from the analysis: pre-migration debt bondage, exploitative lending practices, no legal recourse, emotional manipulation, and cycles of dependency. This study contributes to our existing knowledge by revealing the experiences of migrant construction workers from South Asia in the UAE. While the UAE has established one of the region’s most progressive legal frameworks to protect migrant workers and set clear labor standards, many exploitative practices occur outside its jurisdiction, particularly in the workers’ countries of origin. This study underscores that the root of the problem lies in weak enforcement and informal recruitment networks in sending countries, not in UAE policy itself. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated international action to ensure that migrant protection begins well before arrival. Full article

National parks represent a global initiative for biodiversity conservation and environmentally sustainable societal development, with China having launched its own national park program. The establishment and operation of these parks significantly impact local residents’ livelihoods. Based on DFID’s Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, an assessment tool introduced by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) for evaluating the livelihood standards of residents, this study constructs a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework to analyze how national parks affect residents’ livelihoods, discussing livelihood risk management and feasible capacity-building interventions. Focusing on the Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park as a case study, the research reveals that indirect wildlife-inflicted damage poses more pronounced negative impacts on local communities than park establishment policies. Both regulatory land-use restrictions and wildlife conflicts disrupt land-based livelihood activities, ultimately affecting residents’ livelihood stability. Mitigation requires comprehensive measures, including retaining essential farmland; providing vocational skill training; offering specialized loans; diversifying employment channels; and improving compensation mechanisms to safeguard residents’ livelihood security. Full article

The ability of the agriculture sector, which is exposed to climate hazards, to cope with climate challenges and to strive in spite of them, is conceptualized as the resilience of agriculture. In enhancing climate-resilient agriculture, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) is generally perceived to serve two crucial functions: first, encouraging banks to allocate credit to agriculturalists for climate-resilient agricultural practices; second, enhancing agriculturalists’ ability to sustain agricultural output growth in spite of climate crises. In light of this, we conducted an ex post evaluation of the effect of the currently in-use CRR on bank loans to climate-challenged Nigeria’s agriculture sector for climate-resilient agricultural practices. Additionally, this study investigates the CRR’s impact(s) on agricultural output growth amidst climate challenges. Other additional independent variables include monetary policy rate, government capital expenditures on agriculture, and government recurrent expenditures on agriculture, as well as temperature, precipitation, and the renewable energy supply. Using annual data from 1990 to 2022, the results from an autoregressive, distributed lag approach suggest that the standard CRR stipulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the present era of climate change cannot entirely sustain climate-resilient agriculture, evident in the present study’s discoveries on its inability to perform its two major functions (credit and growth) in enhancing agricultural resilience. These findings highlight the need for the green differentiation of the CRR to ensure its effective utilization in enhancing climate resilience. Full article

The real estate market significantly influences individual lives, corporate decisions, and national economic sustainability. Therefore, constructing a data-driven, interpretable real estate market prediction model is essential. It can clarify each factor’s role in housing prices and transactions, offering a scientific basis for market regulation and enterprise investment decisions. This study comprehensively measures the evolution trends of the real estate markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, China, from 2003 to 2022 through three dimensions. Then, various machine learning methods and interpretability methods like SHAP values are used to explore the impact of supply, demand, policies, and expectations on the real estate market of China’s first-tier cities. The results reveal the following: (1) In terms of commercial housing sales area, adequate housing supply, robust medical services, and high population density boost the sales area, while demand for small units reflects buyers’ balance between affordability and education. (2) In terms of commercial housing average sales price, growth is driven by education investment, population density, and income, with loan interest rates serving as a stabilizing tool. (3) In terms of commercial housing sales amount, educational expenditure, general public budget expenditure, and real estate development investment amount drive revenue, while the five-year loan benchmark interest rate is the primary inhibitory factor. These findings highlight the divergent impacts of supply, demand, policy, and expectation factors across different market dimensions, offering critical insights for enterprise investment strategies. Full article

In Latin America, over 50% of the population has relied on loans from family members or friends, reflecting the importance of trust-based networks in response to financial exclusion. This study examines how distrust in the formal financial system influences the use of informal borrowing. Using data from 17 countries for the years 2014, 2017, and 2021, and applying a fixed-effects logistic regression model by country and time, we confirm that rising distrust significantly increases the likelihood of turning to loans from personal networks. This relationship intensifies in times of crisis. Beyond this, we find that macroeconomic variables such as GDP per capita and unemployment also significantly affect informal borrowing behavior. This research contributes to the literature by integrating institutional, economic, and social variables, highlighting the role of interpersonal trust as a form of social capital. It also advances the field of personal finance by revealing an everyday strategy of financial resilience. Finally, this study offers relevant implications for public policy, advocating for a more realistic and context-sensitive approach to financial inclusion, especially in regions where credit constraints in the formal sector have pushed households to seek more accessible and flexible alternatives. Full article

Human trafficking, a grave violation of human rights, frequently intersects with financial crimes, notably identity theft and coercive debt accumulation. This creates complex challenges for victims, survivors, and law enforcement. Victims of human trafficking are often coerced and/or threatened into committing various forms of crime, referred to as “forced criminality.” In recent years, this trend of criminality has moved from violent crimes to financial crimes and fraud, including identity theft, synthetic identity fraud, and serving as money mules. This phenomenon, termed “forced fraud”, exacerbates the already severe trauma experienced by victims (referred to as both victims and survivors throughout, consistent with trauma-informed terminology) trapping them in a cycle of financial instability and legal complications. Traffickers often coerce their victims into opening credit lines, taking out loans, or committing fraud all in their own names, leading to ruined credit histories and insurmountable debt. These financial burdens make it extremely difficult for survivors to rebuild their lives post-trafficking. This paper explores the mechanisms of forced fraud, its impact on survivors, and the necessary legislative and financial interventions to support survivors. By examining first-hand accounts and social and policy efforts from a range of sources, this paper highlights the urgent need for comprehensive support systems that address both the immediate and long-term financial repercussions of human trafficking. Full article

Green finance—including bilateral and multilateral development aid and concessional loans—has emerged as a critical tool in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy, particularly in emerging economies. Türkiye, since the early 2000s, has increasingly relied on climate-related official development flows in alignment with its sustainability and emissions reduction targets. This study examines the impact of green finance and financial globalization on environmental sustainability in Türkiye over the period 2001–2021. It specifically tests the load capacity curve (LCC) hypothesis, which posits a non-linear (U-shaped) relationship between financial drivers and ecological outcomes. The study employs the load capacity factor (LCF) as an environmental pressure indicator and uses ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimation methods to ensure robustness. The results indicate that green finance has a long-term positive effect on Türkiye’s environmental sustainability, whereas financial globalization shows mixed effects. The findings confirm the presence of a U-shaped relationship between green finance and environmental pressure, supporting the LCC hypothesis. These results contribute to the limited empirical literature on green finance in emerging economies and suggest that policy frameworks should emphasize the sequencing and institutional alignment of green financial flows. Policymakers in Türkiye and similar economies may benefit from integrating green finance strategies with targeted regulatory reforms to maximize ecological benefits. Full article

A company’s base, or physical location, is often a criterion or condition for inclusion in regional development programmes that offer investment incentives such as reduced taxes, subsidised loan rates, or funding for research and development projects. However, these programmes, aimed at strengthening communities lagging behind in economic development, are often the target of malicious exploitation by companies that have a virtual headquarters in the region without actually contributing to local economies. This study proposes the use of the Expenses Localness Indicators (ELI) model as a reliable indicator of a company’s real contribution to a local economy. The ELI model can measure and highlight attempts to erode a company’s headquarters, and also assess a company’s integration into the local economy. By simulating a virtual economic environment and generating synthetic transaction data, the effectiveness of the ELI model in detecting false location claims and quantifying regional participation is evaluated. The results show that companies that prioritise local partnerships maintain higher locality scores, while those that partner with low locality entities weaken their local economic footprint, regardless of physical location. The ELI model provides a transparent and reliable tool that can be used both to grant regional incentives and to monitor their performance. Its integration into policy design can support more equitable, evidence-based approaches to regional economic development and social investment. Full article

This paper assesses whether fintech mortgage lenders align pricing with borrower risk using conforming 30-year mortgages (2012–2020). We estimate default probabilities using machine learning (logit, random forest, gradient boosting, LightGBM, XGBoost), finding that non-fintech lenders achieve the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.860), followed closely by banks (0.857), with fintech lenders trailing (0.852). In pricing analysis, banks adjust the origination rates most sharply with borrower risk (7.20 basis points per percentage-point increase in default probability) compared to fintech (4.18 bp) and non-fintech lenders (5.43 bp). Fintechs underprice 32% of high-risk loans, highlighting limited incentive alignment under GSE securitization structures. Expanding the allowable alternative data and modest risk-retention policies could enhance fintechs’ analytical effectiveness in mortgage markets. Full article

Nuclear energy cogeneration, which integrates electricity generation with thermal energy utilization, presents a transformative pathway for enhancing energy efficiency and decarbonizing industrial and urban sectors. This comprehensive review synthesizes advancements in technological stratification, economic modeling, and sectoral practices to evaluate the viability of nuclear cogeneration as a cornerstone of low-carbon energy transitions. By categorizing applications based on temperature requirements (low: <250 °C, medium: 250–550 °C, high: >550 °C), the study highlights the adaptability of reactor technologies, including light water reactors (LWRs), high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), and molten salt reactors (MSRs), to sector-specific demands. Key findings reveal that nuclear cogeneration systems achieve thermal efficiencies exceeding 80% in low-temperature applications and reduce CO₂ emissions by 1.5–2.5 million tons annually per reactor by displacing fossil fuel-based heat sources. Economic analyses emphasize the critical role of cost allocation methodologies, with exergy-based approaches reducing levelized costs by 18% in high-temperature applications. Policy instruments, such as carbon pricing, value-added tax (VAT) exemptions, and subsidized loans, enhance project viability, elevating net present values by 25–40% for district heating systems. Case studies from Finland, China, and Canada demonstrate operational successes, including 30% emission reductions in oil sands processing and hydrogen production costs as low as USD 3–5/kg via thermochemical cycles. Hybrid nuclear–renewable systems further stabilize energy supply, reducing the levelized cost of heat by 18%. The review underscores the necessity of integrating Generation IV reactors, thermal storage, and policy alignment to unlock nuclear cogeneration’s full potential in achieving global decarbonization and energy security goals. Full article

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has profoundly affected public health and socio-economic structures globally. This research conducted a post-COVID-19 analysis of the role of fiscal support interventions on COVID-19 health regulations such as mandatory non-pharmaceutical interventions like face masks, social distancing, periodic lockdowns which include restrictions on movement, and socio-economic dimensions. This quantitative research obtained 302 responses from different households in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, Kwa-Zulu Natal, and Limpopo Provinces in South Africa. The results reveal that the relief fund (R350 unemployment grant, unemployment insurance fund claim, and food parcel distribution, among others) mediated the relationship between COVID-19 health regulations and poverty levels and the relationship between COVID-19 health regulations and health and well-being. The relief fund also mediated the relationship between COVID-19 health regulations and employment levels. Support packages from the R500 billion government support, which included loan guarantees, job support, tax and payment deferrals and holidays, social grants, wage guarantees, health interventions, and municipalities support, moderate the relationship between COVID-19 health regulations and the family and social support. These results validate the impact of the fiscal support intervention by the government in mitigating its emergency intervention with COVID-19 health regulations. This strengthens the theory of intervention, highlighting that multiple dynamics make interventions complex as shown by mediation and moderation results. Furthermore, this study highlights intervention being central to the management of the crisis. The study highlights the importance of comprehensive intervention for future preparedness, thus advancing the crisis–intervention perspective. Advances in these areas are critical to mitigate the impact of the next pandemic or similar major events in society. This can be achieved through improved pandemic timely response with effective economic stimulus, social relief, strong legal framework, and anti-corruption policies. Full article

Globally, financial inclusion is regarded as being crucial for balancing an economy’s financial system. However, despite the significance of financial inclusion, it still needs to be clarified to identify what factors are responsible for the diverse trend of financial inclusion in the forty-five Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1999 to 2024. The main rationale of the study empirically investigated these determinants of financial inclusion in forty-five Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1999 to 2024, which covers three distinct periods: which is the pre-COVID, 2020–2022 is the COVID period, and the post-COVID period from 2023 onward, but examined as a whole from 1999 to 2024 for easy policy formulation for SSA countries. The study was anchored on two main research objectives: firstly, to examine the factors influencing financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in these three distinct periods, and lastly, to present the policy implications of the result of these factors in enhancing financial inclusion in the post-COVID era in SSA. The study used the Panel Least Squares (PLS) technique in the data analysis. The result revealed that economic growth (GRO), Islamic banking (ISMAIC), money supply (MSS), internet users (USERS), and credit availability (CREDIT) positively and significantly enhance financial inclusion with coefficients of 0.001298, 4.926809, 1.08 × 10⁻⁶, 0.459388, and 0.657431, respectively, with significant p-values of 0.0008, 0.0023, 0.0000, 0.0000, and 0.000, respectively. On the flip side, internet servers (SERVER) have a negative coefficient value of 4.63 × 10⁻⁶ with a p-value of 0.000. Though inflation (INFL) and interest rate (INT.) have negative coefficient values of −0.02853 and −0.08317, they have insignificant p-value impacts of 0.2841 and 0.2501, respectively. The result indicates that many of the variables have a significant impact on financial inclusion. This is shown from the probabilities of the t statistics of each of the independent variables in the estimated model, which are significant at the 5% level. The policy implications of these results include the following: firstly, SSA governments should promote economic growth through investment in productive sectors, infrastructure development, and job creation programs to indirectly improve financial inclusion. Secondly, SSA countries’ policymakers should maintain price stability through sound monetary and fiscal policies to ensure inflation does not hinder access to financial services. Thirdly, SSA countries’ governments and central banks should promote lower interest rates and enhance credit accessibility, especially for marginalized groups, through subsidized loans and targeted credit schemes. Fourthly, policymakers should support the expansion of Islamic finance by improving regulatory frameworks and increasing awareness about Sharia-compliant financial products. Full article

In the global pursuit of sustainable development and climate change mitigation, reconciling export growth with environmental protection has emerged as a universal challenge. As the world’s largest developing economy, China has traditionally relied on a resource-intensive development model to fuel rapid foreign trade growth. However, this extensive growth pattern has not only led to environmental pollution domestically but has also encountered hurdles from international green trade barriers. Finance, as a key driver of stable economic growth, plays a pivotal role in achieving high-quality trade development. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government has introduced the green credit interest subsidies policy. This policy aims to coordinate government financial resources and guide capital toward green production, alleviating financing constraints and fostering the upgrading of export product quality. Utilizing data from the World Bank, China Customs statistics, and provincial panels from 2011 to 2020, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the causal impact of the green credit subsidies policy on efforts to upgrade the export quality of green products across China’s regions. The benchmark regression results indicate that the green credit interest subsidies policy has significantly improved the export quality of green products across China’s manufacturing industries. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this policy has had a more pronounced positive impact on green product quality in industries with quality-based competition strategies, in regions with well-coordinated local finance and financial policies, as well as in countries that have concluded environmental clauses with China. Mechanism analysis reveals that, on the export side, the policy enhances green product quality by easing financing constraints, increasing green credit, boosting productivity, and upgrading industrial structures. On the import side, the policy promotes green product quality by expanding the scale, variety, and quality of green intermediate goods. This research offers valuable insights for developing countries aiming to establish export-oriented green transformation and upgrading strategies. Full article