Search Results (4,258)

Land use change is the most direct factor driving the supply and alteration of ecosystem services. This study employed the Dyna-CLUE tool to simulate future land use distributions under two scenarios—the Constrained Trend (CT) and Optimized Target-driven (OT) scenarios—based on land use data from 2010. Subsequently, their corresponding ecosystem service values (ESVs) were calculated, with the simulation outcomes revealing distinct land use layouts under each scenario. Under the CT scenario, grassland and urban areas expanded, whereas farmland and water bodies declined, reflecting a trend of urbanization at the expense of rural landscapes. In contrast, the OT scenario demonstrated a cessation of built-up land expansion, accompanied by marked increases in forest and water coverage, changes that facilitated the restoration of coastal watersheds, enhancing wetland provision and improving overall ESV. Consequently, per capita ESV increased substantially—from 1751 CNY in 2018 to 2356 CNY, matching the 2010 level—primarily due to the conversion of grasslands and farmlands into forests and wetlands. The OT scenario also improved the spatial distribution of ESVs, forming interconnected ecological zones around urban areas. The results underscore that policies restraining built-up expansion, promoting afforestation, and restoring wetlands can significantly improve ecosystem services and contribute to sustainability. Full article

Resource-based cities face unique land use challenges due to resource dependence and path lock-in, yet the driving mechanisms and future trajectories of their land use transitions remain underexplored. This study examines the Huaihai Economic Zone (HEZ), a representative coal-rich region in eastern China, to analyze land use changes from 2000 to 2023 and simulate 2036 scenarios under different development pathways. Using land use transfer matrices, dynamic degree metrics, and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we systematically identified spatiotemporal evolution patterns, quantified the contributions of driving factors, and projected multi-scenario future land use patterns. Results reveal that land use change in the study area was dominated by the conversion of cultivated land to construction land, alongside spatial restructuring from a monocentric to a polycentric network pattern. Notably, construction land expansion was least evident in the central Mining-Affected Zone, where land use changes remained relatively sluggish compared to other sub-regions. Driving factor analysis indicates that socio-economic factors primarily influenced changes in construction and cultivated land, while natural factors strongly affected ecological land and unused land. Multi-scenario simulations for 2036 demonstrate diverging trajectories: an urban development scenario would accelerate cultivated land loss and unused land expansion; a natural development scenario would maintain current pressures; and an ecological protection scenario would effectively curb urban sprawl while actively promoting ecological land recovery. This study concludes that transcending simple land use control to actively orchestrate “mining-urban-rural-ecological” spatial synergy is critical for achieving a sustainable transition in resource-based regions facing similar transformation pressures. Full article

This study proposes a variable-scale optimization strategy for land-levelling path planning to overcome the limitations of conventional traversal-based operations, including poor coordination, insufficient planning, low operational efficiency, and the computational burden associated with large datasets and constrained earthmoving capacity. For large-scale inter-regional earthwork balancing, an improved ant colony optimization (IACO) algorithm is developed to generate efficient region to region transfer routes. After verifying that inter-regional earthwork balance satisfies the levelling requirement, a field-wide fine-levelling plan is produced at the grid scale using a hybrid method that integrates an improved A* search with ant colony optimization (FIA*ACO). The proposed framework is evaluated through simulation and field experiments using measurement-based indicators, including the maximum elevation difference and the proportion of points within ±5 cm of the target elevation. Field results show that IACO-based inter-regional planning increases the ±5 cm compliant proportion by 14.18 percentage points and reduces the maximum elevation difference by 0.079 m. Subsequent FIA*ACO-based fine-gridded planning further improves the ±5 cm compliant proportion by 20.82 percentage points and decreases the maximum elevation difference by 0.311 m. Overall, the results demonstrate that inter-regional planning rapidly expands the area meeting levelling standards, while grid-level refinement further enhances levelling quality, validating the effectiveness of the proposed variable-scale strategy for land-levelling path planning. Full article

Climate change and rapid urbanization are intensifying flood risks in China, particularly in regions with complex terrain and dense populations. Traditional risk assessment methods often lack the flexibility to handle uncertainties in multi-dimensional risk systems. This study proposes a probabilistic flood risk assessment framework integrating Monte Carlo simulation with a composite indicator system from the perspective of disaster system theory. Taking Hunan Province as a case study, we constructed a hierarchical indicator system encompassing environmental susceptibility, hazard intensity, exposure vulnerability, and mitigation capacity. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and coefficient of variation (CV) methods were combined for indicator weighting, and Monte Carlo simulation was employed to quantify uncertainties and classify risk levels. Results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in flood risk across the province, with high-risk areas concentrated in regions exhibiting intense rainfall, dense river networks, and insufficient mitigation infrastructure. The study provides a transferable, data-driven approach for spatially explicit flood risk zoning, offering evidence-based insights for land-use planning, resilient infrastructure development, and sustainable flood governance. This research contributes to the integration of probabilistic modeling into land system science, supporting disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation strategies aligned with SDG 11. This study also provides policy-relevant insights for regional flood governance by supporting risk-informed land-use planning, targeted infrastructure investment, and adaptive flood management strategies, thereby contributing to more resilient and sustainable land system development under increasing climate uncertainty. Full article

This research investigates the relationships between the parameters of the GR4J hydrological model and a set of morphometric descriptors, climatic indices, land-cover characteristics, and soil properties across the Caquetá River Basin (Colombia). Twelve limnimetric–limnographic gauges with consistent records for the period 2001–2022 were selected for model calibration and validation. The corresponding sub-watersheds were delineated and characterized in terms of geomorphometry, vegetation cover, and soil permeability. According to that, the morphometric assessment focused on estimating key geomorphometric parameters, while land-cover descriptions utilized NDVI data. Soil type identification was based on the average approximate permeability across each analyzed sub-watershed. Model calibration was performed using the Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) algorithm with 8000 simulations, forced by CHIRPS satellite precipitation and ERA5 potential evaporation data. Relationships between GR4J parameters and watershed attributes were assessed using Spearman’s rank correlation and curve-fitting analyses. The results reveal strong and consistent relationships between GR4J parameters (X1–X4) and key morphometric variables, including basin perimeter, circularity ratio, main channel length, and channel slope. Coefficients of determination ranged from 0.80 to 0.98, highlighting the potential for parameter regionalization based on physiographic and environmental descriptors. Full article

Floods are among the extreme events associated with climate variability in the Lacramarca River basin, located in the department of Ancash, Peru. Meteorological phenomena such as El Niño during the periods 1982–1983 and 1997–1998, as well as the Coastal El Niño in 2017, constitute key reference events that motivated the development of the present study, based on a case study conducted in the area between the rural settlements of Santa Clemencia and Pampadura. This research is based on maximum precipitation data derived from historical climate records and from the climate scenarios ACCESS 1-3, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR, as well as the median projected scenario for 2050, obtained from the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI) data platform. This information was analyzed considering the spatial location of the basin and its position relative to the area of interest, using Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves. To demonstrate the changes in the river hydrological behavior before and after the 2017 Coastal El Niño event, a Random Forest modeling approach was applied using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Design peak discharges for return periods of 50, 100, and 140 years were estimated using the HEC-HMS software. Hydraulic simulation of the Lacramarca River basin, carried out using HEC-RAS version 6.7 beta 3 and IBER version 3.3.1 software, made it possible to identify flood-prone areas affecting agricultural land and areas adjacent to population centers, covering 149,000 m² and 172,000 m² for return periods of 100 and 140 years, respectively, based on information from the historical scenario. In contrast, using data from the 2050 projection scenario, affected areas of 242,000 m² and 323,000 m² were estimated for the same return periods. Full article

Mapping land cover, monitoring its changes, and simulating future alterations are essential tasks for sustainable land management. These processes enable accurate assessment of environmental impacts, support informed policymaking, and assist in the planning needed to mitigate risks related to urban expansion, deforestation, and climate change. This study proposes a GeoAI-based framework leveraging Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), a class of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict land cover changes in the Aosta Valley region (NW Italy). The model uses Copernicus Earth Observation data, specifically Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery, and is trained and validated on land cover maps derived from different time periods previously validated with ground truth data. The objective is to provide a predictive tool capable of simulating potential future landscape configurations, supporting proactive regional land use planning including regulatory constraints under the current land use plan. Model performance is evaluated using accuracy metrics. The land cover classification methodology follows established approaches in the scientific literature, adapted to the specific geomorphological characteristics of the Aosta Valley. To explore and visualize potential future land cover transitions, Sankey and chord diagrams are used in combination with zonal statistics and thematic plots. These provide detailed insights into the intensity, direction, and magnitude of landscape dynamics. Training data were stratified-sampled across the study area, covering a diverse set of land cover classes to ensure robustness and generalization of the MLP model. This GeoAI approach offers a scalable and replicable methodology for anticipating land cover dynamics, identifying vulnerable areas, and informing adaptive environmental management strategies at the regional scale, while simultaneously considering the latest urban planning regulations. Full article

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are among the leading contributors to global environmental transformation. Analyzing these dynamics is essential for understanding historical land utilization patterns and identifying the key drivers behind such shifts. This research focuses on LULC changes in the Kunar region of eastern Afghanistan. To classify the LULC types, the study area was divided into nine major classes using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, based on Landsat 07 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data for 2004 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for 2014 and 2024. Past and present changes were evaluated using ArcGIS 10.8, while future scenarios for 2034 and 2044 were simulated using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in the TerrSet platform, combined with the Cellular Automata–Markov Chain (CA-MC) model with 90% kappa agreement validation value. From 2004 to 2024, grassland expanded significantly from 68.93% (3406 km²) to 73.94% (3654 km²). Built-up areas grew from 0.59% (29.10 km²) in 2014 to 1.02% (50.39 km²) in 2024. Conversely, dense forest cover declined from 27.50% (1358.90 km²) to 22.96% (1134.75 km²), a decrease of 224.15 km². Barren land, after a temporary increase, also showed a net decline. Projections for 2034 and 2044 suggest a further reduction in forested areas to 1077 km², while grasslands and urbanized zones are expected to increase to 3690 km² and 60.63 km², respectively. These trends emphasize a swift transition in land use patterns, primarily driven by the conversion of forested and barren landscapes into settlements and grasslands. The findings underline the urgent need for implementing sustainable land management strategies to curb environmental degradation and ensure balanced land resource utilization in the future. Full article

This study develops and applies an integrated modeling framework to assess the solar-to-hydrogen-to-power potential across Romania’s five hydrogen ecosystems defined in the National Hydrogen Strategy. The methodology couples PVGIS-based photovoltaic yield simulations, based on hourly solar irradiation data and including system losses, with MHOGA-based electrolysis simulation, enabling a quantitative-energetic-environmental (Q-E-E) system-level assessment. A 1 MW photovoltaic plant was simulated under three mounting configurations (15° fixed tilt, optimal tilt, and solar tracking) and interfaced with alkaline (AEL) and proton exchange membrane electrolysers (PEMEL). Specific photovoltaic yields reach up to 360 kWh/m²_PV·year under tracking conditions, producing up to 7.5 kg/m²_PV·year (AEL) and 6.8 kg/m²_PV·year (PEMEL), expressed per unit of photovoltaic surface area to enable consistent comparison across the configurations considered. The modeled round-trip efficiency of the full solar–electricity–hydrogen–electricity chain is 38.32% for AEL and 34.57% for PEMEL. Life-cycle-based emission modeling yields 0.92 kg CO₂/kg H₂ (AEL) and 1.03 kg CO₂/kg H₂ (PEMEL), while avoided emissions exceed 250 g CO₂/kWh relative to grid intensity. Land-use modeling indicates area requirements between 9402 and 18,804 m²/MW, depending on the Ground Coverage Ratio. Results demonstrate that system configuration exerts a stronger influence than regional solar variability in determining hydrogen yield, highlighting the need for integrated techno-environmental optimization for large-scale deployment. Full article

Investigating the influence of landscape evolution on river eutrophication is critical for optimizing spatial patterns to improve water quality. Machine learning (ML) models can capture the complex relationship between landscape metrics and water quality, but their black-box property restricts the interpretability of the underlying mechanisms and makes it difficult to forecast future trends in water quality. To address this, we developed a novel framework that, for the first time, couples an interpretable ML model with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model for eutrophication index (EI) prediction. This approach elucidates the response of river eutrophication to landscape dynamics and forecasts future river EI trends. The random forest regression (RFR) model outperformed other algorithms in quantifying these relationships (R² = 0.934 for training, 0.711 for testing). SHAP analysis revealed that landscape metrics contributed 81.78% to the river EI, far exceeding climate factors (18.22%). Consequently, landscape evolution emerged as the dominant explanatory factor. Scenario simulations indicated that while the ecological protection (EP) scenario effectively mitigates river eutrophication, the urban development (UD) scenario significantly exacerbates it. Specifically, under the UD scenario, the average EI in urban sub-watersheds is projected to reach 60.78 by 2040, approaching heavy eutrophic levels. Our findings inform spatial optimization strategies for river eutrophication management and facilitate the design of targeted, localized water ecological protection policies in subtropical monsoonal basins. Full article

Flood hazard mapping remains challenging in regions with limited hydrological and topographic data, despite increasing flood risk driven by climate change and land-use dynamics. This study aims to demonstrate that preliminary flood inundation maps can be developed under data-scarce conditions by integrating limited field observations with publicly available datasets and simplified hydrodynamic modeling. The Khlong Wat watershed in southern Thailand, where flood hazard maps had not previously existed despite recurrent flood events, was used as a case study. Flood simulations were conducted using the HEC-RAS model with a simplified terrain representation to approximate river bathymetry, acknowledging uncertainties in channel geometry. Hydrodynamic results show a systematic increase in flood extent and depth with increasing flood recurrence intervals, with inundated areas expanding from 1.43 km² for a 10-year flood to 4.02 km² and 5.97 km² for 100- and 500-year events, respectively. Agricultural land is consistently the most affected category, accounting for more than two-thirds of the flooded area across all scenarios, with rubber plantations being the dominant land use. Urban exposure increases with flood magnitude, although most buildings remain affected by shallow inundation below 0.5 m. The results confirm that meaningful flood hazard assessments can be achieved in data-limited regions and provide a transferable framework to support flood risk management and spatial planning in similar environments. Full article

This paper presents a methodological framework for integrating UAV-based photogrammetry and GIS technologies to generate a high-accuracy digital elevation model (DEM) for urban land-use planning. The study was conducted in an urbanized area characterized by heterogeneous topography, mixed vegetation cover, and fragmented land use, which complicate high-resolution terrain modeling. UAV surveys were performed using multiple photogrammetric blocks with centimeter-level ground sample distance and a dense ground control network supported by geoid-based height corrections. The resulting DEM was independently validated using control points derived from large-scale topographic data. The achieved vertical accuracy (RMSE ≈ 0.25 m) confirms the applicability of UAV-derived DEMs for large-scale mapping (1:1000–1:2000) and urban spatial analysis. Unlike studies focused on runoff simulation, this work emphasizes the accuracy-controlled generation and validation of DEMs as a primary spatial dataset for urban planning applications. The results demonstrate that DEM accuracy depends strongly on flight planning, ground control distribution, and hybrid automatic–manual point cloud refinement. Full article

Land use change profoundly impacts the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in ecologically fragile watersheds. Optimizing land use patterns based on ecological function zoning is an important approach to coordinate multiple ecosystem services and promote sustainable watershed management. This study focuses on the Wuding River Basin within the Chinese Loess Plateau, using Self-Organizing Map, multi-objective genetic algorithms, and the Future Land-Use Simulation model to explore land use optimization schemes. The results show that the windbreak and sand fixation service in the Wuding River Basin presents a spatial pattern of higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast, while the other six services exhibit a pattern of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. Based on the ecosystem service cluster characteristics, the basin can be divided into soil and water conservation zones, habitat conservation zones, and ecologically fragile zones. The trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services within different zones differ significantly, with the trade-off between food supply, soil conservation, and habitat quality being particularly prominent. After optimization, the food supply and soil conservation in the soil and water conservation zones increased by an average of 0.63 × 10⁴ t and 1.94 × 10⁵ t, respectively. The food supply in the habitat conservation zones increased by 0.11 × 10⁴ t, while habitat quality remained stable. In the ecologically fragile area, water production and carbon sequestration services increased by an average of 0.26 × 10⁴ t and 0.58 × 10⁵ t, respectively. During the optimization process, the reasonable allocation of grassland and unused land played a key role in balancing service conflicts. This study provides a scientific basis for coordinating trade-offs in watershed ecosystem services and achieving land use optimization management through the framework of service clusters, functional zones, and multi-objective optimization. Full article

Maintaining high power delivery under uncertain landing positions is a key challenge for wireless charging of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This paper presents a data-driven power optimization method based on the Soft Actor-Critic algorithm for multi-transmitter single-receiver wireless power transfer (MTSR-WPT) systems. To support effective learning without explicit online parameter identification, a physics-informed dual-current state representation is constructed from measurable current responses, combining a zero-phase current with the current response under the applied phase command. The agent is trained using a reward defined directly from normalized load power, and the transmitter voltage phases serve as the control actions. In simulations of a five-transmitter system, the learned policy achieves about 97% of the theoretical maximum power in the training region and about 96% in the expanded evaluation region. Additional robustness studies show strong performance under moderate measurement noise and substantial recovery under model mismatch after short fine-tuning. Experimental validation on a physical prototype confirms the effectiveness of the method, yielding an average power improvement of 188% from a zero-phase baseline and reaching 87% of the maximum power measured on the hardware platform. These results support the proposed method as a practical data-driven alternative to model-dependent MTSR-WPT power optimization for UAV wireless charging. Full article

Land use/cover change (LUCC) strongly regulates ecosystem carbon storage and provides a critical entry point for carbon-oriented territorial spatial governance. However, balancing carbon sequestration, food security, urban expansion, and ecological protection remains challenging in Southwest China’s Ecological Security Barrier Zone (ESBZ). In this study, we coupled the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon module to reconstruct LUCC and carbon-storage dynamics during 1999–2024 and to project land-use patterns and carbon storage in 2049 under four scenarios: Natural Development (NDS), Urban Development (UDS), Cultivated land Protection (CPS), and Ecological Protection (EPS). Unlike most existing PLUS–InVEST studies focused on cities, watersheds, or single provinces, this study targets a national ecological security barrier and integrates land-use evolution, carbon-storage responses, scenario trade-offs, and zoning-oriented governance into one analytical framework. It therefore provides spatially explicit evidence not only for carbon-oriented land management but also for interprovincial ecological compensation and coordinated ecological security governance in ecologically fragile regions. The 2024 land system was dominated by forest land (56.40%), cultivated land (25.47%), and grassland (16.09%). From 1999 to 2024, forest land expanded by 1.966 × 10⁴ km², whereas cultivated land and grassland decreased by 9.738 × 10³ km² and 1.874 × 10⁴ km², respectively; 92.65% of construction-land expansion originated from cultivated land conversion. Correspondingly, total carbon storage followed a “fluctuation–decline–recovery” trajectory, decreasing from 3.833 × 10¹⁰ t in 1999 to 3.820 × 10¹⁰ t in 2014, before rebounding to 3.831 × 10¹⁰ t in 2024. Pronounced provincial heterogeneity was observed: Sichuan and Yunnan jointly contributed about 76% of regional carbon storage, while Chongqing and Guizhou remained relatively low. By 2049, EPS produced the highest carbon storage (3.854 × 10¹⁰ t), whereas CPS, UDS, and NDS all led to lower values than in 2024. These contrasts indicate that the four scenarios do not represent a simple ranking of “better” or “worse”, but rather different trade-offs among carbon sinks, cultivated land protection, urban development, and regional equity. Overall, the results support province-differentiated, zoning-based land governance and highlight the need to coordinate ecological protection, cultivated-land conservation, urban growth control, and interprovincial ecological compensation to enhance carbon sequestration and safeguard ecological security in the ESBZ. Full article