Search Results (9,007)

Global hydrological models (GHMs) are essential for assessing water resources and flood risk, yet systematic evaluations of ISIMIP3a models remain limited. We evaluated eight standard ISIMIP3a GHM configurations against observed discharge at four principal Yangtze mainstem gauges using a multi-metric framework covering daily and monthly discharge, the seasonal cycle (defined as the mean annual cycle of monthly discharge), flow percentiles, and annual peak discharge. Metric-based model performance generally increased from daily to monthly and seasonal-cycle scales, partly reflecting the smoothing of short-term errors through temporal aggregation, whereas annual peak discharge remained more difficult to reproduce. WaterGAP2-2e achieved the strongest overall performance across the daily, monthly, and seasonal-cycle evaluations. However, this result was not fully independent of its inherited global discharge calibration, because three evaluation gauges (Yichang, Hankou, and Datong) spatially coincide with gauges in its calibration-station dataset. WaterGAP2-2e also systematically overestimated peak flows, with peak-flow Relative Bias (RBpeak) reaching 30.14%. Among the remaining configurations, WEB-DHM-SG showed the strongest overall performance and a relatively small station-averaged absolute peak-flow bias (|RB_peak| = 15.52%). However, this advantage did not extend to low-flow conditions. H08 and ORCHIDEE-MICT showed the weakest overall performance, with negative NSE values down to −3.61 and peak-flow biases reaching −99.10%, whereas MIROC-INTEG-LAND, CWatM, HydroPy, and JULES-W2-DDM30 showed intermediate performance. Overall, model suitability depended on temporal scale and flow regime, and apparent rankings should be interpreted in light of inherited calibration and configuration differences. These results provide a diagnostic basis for model selection and targeted improvement in regional discharge simulation and peak-flow-related applications. Full article

Reliable spatial evidence can support quality assurance and quality control for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), but land-cover and species-distribution layers do not by themselves identify IPCC Forest Land or species-pure stands. We estimated 2010 and 2020 above- and below-ground living biomass carbon within tree-covered European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) distribution and occurrence footprints in Greece. Our operational hypothesis was that increasingly restrictive species masks would materially alter the mapped extent and carbon estimates. ESA Climate Change Initiative Biomass v6, ESA WorldCover 2021, European Forest Genetic Resources Programme (EUFORGEN) polygons, and Forest Information System for Europe (FISE) relative probability of presence layers were processed in Google Earth Engine. Biomass was converted with IPCC default carbon fractions and root:shoot ratios, and the results were summarized nationally and for GAUL Level-2 units. The broad EUFORGEN footprint covered 22,133 km², whereas the Combined overlap of EUFORGEN, FISE relative probability of presence ≥ 0.50, and tree cover covered 2742 km². Within the Combined footprint, the pixel mean living biomass carbon density was 60.33 Mg C ha⁻¹ in 2010 and 62.50 Mg C ha⁻¹ in 2020, and the area-integrated change was +0.58 Tg C; the area-normalized regional change was positive in 13 of 17 units and negative in 4. Across masks, the mean decadal change ranged from −0.50 to +3.37 Mg C ha⁻¹ and the approximate area-integrated totals from −1.10 to +0.58 Tg C. These scenario-conditioned estimates are neither official national greenhouse gas inventory estimates nor tests of statistical significance; instead, they provide reproducible spatial screening while making mask sensitivity and unpropagated uncertainty explicit. Full article

This study investigates the influence of rainfall variability on runoff generation in the Upper Ing River Basin and inflow to the Mae Tum Reservoir in northern Thailand using the physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2012. In small mountainous watersheds, water supply reliability for irrigation and domestic use—particularly for unmonitored royal initiated projects like the Mae Tum Reservoir—has become a critical concern due to shifting climatic extremes. A SWAT model was developed using detailed spatial data on topography, land use, and soil characteristics together with long-term daily climate and streamflow records. The model performance at Station I.17 was evaluated through calibration and validation using the R², Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and percent bias indices. Rainfall regimes were classified into dry, normal, and wet years based on the mean and standard deviation of 25-year gauge records to drive scenario simulations. The calibrated model reproduced seasonal runoff patterns satisfactorily (monthly NSE up to 0.685 and R² up to 0.712). The simulations demonstrated the strong sensitivity of both the runoff at Station I.17 and reservoir inflow to interannual rainfall differences, with the annual runoff ranging from 71.5 to 379.7 million m³ and the annual inflow to Mae Tum Reservoir ranging from 28.84 to 48.33 million m³. These findings demonstrate that physically based spatial modeling can effectively replace traditional empirical operating rules, providing a highly transferable framework for runoff forecasting, reservoir inflow assessment, and climate responsive water resources planning in data-scarce tropical mountainous basins. Full article

Agricultural production trusteeship (APT) represents an innovative model of agricultural socialized services in which specialized service organizations provide scaled operations to smallholders without transferring land rights. It can effectively address rural labor shortages while contributing to China’s grain security and agricultural modernization by improving production efficiency and promoting more sustainable resource allocation. Using survey data from farm households across six Shandong cities, this study applies an Ordered Probit model to examine how off-farm employment influences farmers’ adoption of APT, together with its underlying mechanisms and heterogeneous patterns. The results show that a higher share of household labor engaged in off-farm employment is associated with a higher probability of APT adoption. This association is stronger under flexible employment model and weaker as the location of off-farm work becomes more distant. Mechanism analysis shows capital endowment mediates the association between off-farm employment and APT adoption, with physical capital having the strongest effect and economic capital the weakest. Higher risk perception weakens the positive effect of off-farm employment on farmers’ adoption of APT. These findings provide novel evidence and practical policy implications for improving APT implementation and facilitating smallholders’ effective participation in modern agricultural production systems. Full article

Transitioning cultivated land from a narrowly defined production resource into a coordinated multifunctional asset is a cornerstone of agricultural modernization. Despite this imperative, current land utilization in China remains largely constrained by a singular production focus, resulting in suboptimal multifunctionality. Although digitally driven agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) are posited as a critical catalyst for functional restructuring, empirical evidence quantifying their relationship with cultivated land multifunctionality (CLM) remains limited. To examine the association between ANQPF and CLM, this study employs panel data from 115 prefecture-level cities across the Yangtze River Basin, China, spanning the period 2013–2023. The empirical results indicate that ANQPF is significantly and positively associated with CLM. These associations are robust to a battery of robustness checks, and endogeneity tests provide additional evidence supportive of a positive association. Transmission pathway analysis suggests that the positive association operates through three pathways: increasing the main business revenue of agricultural product processing enterprises above a designated size, expanding the number of agricultural technology patents, and improving the level of agricultural socialized services. Subgroup analyses, supplemented by Chow tests of coefficient equality, reveal that these associations tend to be larger in non-major grain-producing regions, areas with lower per capita GDP, and the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. Threshold effect analysis further demonstrates that once ANQPF exceeds a certain level, the positive association exhibits diminishing marginal returns; a similar but weaker pattern is observed for leading enterprises. These findings provide policy implications for developing ANQPF in accordance with local conditions and for synergistically optimizing CLM patterns. Full article

The deep integration of digital technologies with agricultural production is reshaping how rural land is used and offers new opportunities for narrowing the urban–rural gap in land use efficiency. Building on theoretical analysis, this study uses panel data for 700 Chinese counties from 2010 to 2024, treats the Digital Agriculture Innovation and Application Base pilot program as a quasi-natural experiment, and applies a double machine learning model to examine the effect of smart agriculture construction on the urban–rural gap in land use efficiency. The results show the following: (1) Smart agriculture construction significantly narrows the urban–rural gap in land use efficiency, with channel evidence pointing to agricultural technological progress, improved capital allocation, and agricultural industrial upgrading. (2) The policy effect is statistically significant only in formerly poverty-stricken counties, counties with higher land-transfer rates, and counties with stronger digital foundations, while Fisher permutation tests do not establish statistically significant cross-group differences. (3) Decomposition results show that the program raises rural land use efficiency and the rural marginal returns to capital and labor while leaving the corresponding urban indicators statistically unchanged, so the observed convergence is driven primarily by rural catch-up rather than urban decline. From a factor allocation perspective, this study clarifies how smart agriculture construction can rebalance urban–rural land resource use while identifying the statistical limits of the heterogeneity and channel evidence. Full article

Long-term exploitation of ion-adsorption rare earth deposits has played a vital role in ensuring the supply of strategic mineral resources. However, intensive mining activities have also resulted in severe ecological degradation, including vegetation loss, land degradation, and soil erosion. Although the Remote Sensing Ecological Index has been widely used for ecological environment assessment, it inadequately characterizes land degradation in ion-adsorption rare earth mining areas, while its fixed-weight framework is unable to effectively capture the influence of localized ecological limiting factors. To address these limitations, this study selected a typical ion-adsorption rare earth mining area in southern Jiangxi, China, as the study area. A Desertification Difference Index was incorporated into the conventional RSEI framework to establish a five-dimensional evaluation system consisting of greenness, wetness, dryness, heat, and desertification. Furthermore, a Dynamic Variable-Weight Remote Sensing Ecological Index (DV-RSEI) was developed by integrating variable-weight theory, enabling adaptive adjustment of indicator weights according to local ecological conditions. Using Landsat imagery from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2016, 2020, and 2023, the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity of ecological environmental quality were systematically investigated. The results indicate that: (1) ecological environmental quality exhibited a characteristic evolution process of mining disturbance–ecological degradation–comprehensive restoration–ecological recovery during 2000–2023, with an overall trend dominated by stability and improvement; (2) ecological environmental quality showed significant spatial clustering, with High–High clusters mainly distributed in areas with favorable ecological conditions, whereas Low–Low clusters were concentrated in regions strongly affected by mining activities; and (3) compared with the conventional RSEI, the DV-RSEI better characterized mining-related ecological degradation patterns and the spatial heterogeneity of ecological environmental quality. The proposed approach provides a scientific basis for dynamic ecological monitoring, evaluation of ecological restoration effectiveness, and the construction of green mines in ion-adsorption rare earth mining areas. Full article

Urban sustainability governance has long been dominated by growth-oriented metrics that measure aggregate improvement without establishing whether neighborhoods provide enough for all residents without continuous territorial expansion or resource-intensive redevelopment. Drawing on the post-growth planning, sufficiency theory, spatial justice, land governance, and the adaptive planning literature, this paper proposes a Spatial Sufficiency Multifunctionality Framework (SSMF). SSMF is a provisional conceptual framework requiring empirical validation and aiming to reorient neighborhood land assessment from growth optimization to sufficiency thresholds. The framework organizes planning around five interconnected dimensions: social sufficiency, economic resilience without growth dependence, ecological resilience, spatial governance and land-use sufficiency, and institutional and participatory capacity. Each is operationalized through illustrative indicators, thresholds, and linked governance instruments. SSMF asks whether per-capita land use remains within ecological capacities and whether access to services, green space, and affordable space is equitably distributed. The framework is developed through a systematic scoping review of the literature on urban sustainability, land governance, and post-growth planning, and provides a diagnostic logic and a menu of governance instruments. By shifting the evaluative focus from “more” to “enough, equity distributed within neighborhood capacities,” SSMF offers a provisional architecture for understanding post-growth principles at the neighborhood scale. Full article

Climate and land-use change are shifting the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of many plant species, particularly those with narrow ecological niches and limited ranges. Dracaena cochinchinensis (Lour.) S.C.Chen is a medicinally important and nationally protected plant species distributed in tropical and subtropical southern China. Predicting its habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios is essential for understanding its responses to environmental change and guiding conservation and resource management. In this study, an optimized maximum entropy model was used to predict the current habitat suitability of D. cochinchinensis in China and to assess changes in habitat suitability under future climate scenarios in the 2090s. The model showed reliable predictive performance for estimating species distribution. Under current conditions, suitable habitats were concentrated in southern China, particularly southern Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Taiwan, and parts of Fujian, covering 23.93 × 10⁴ km² (8.31% of the study area). Mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), temperature annual range (Bio7), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the dominant predictors, highlighting the importance of thermal conditions in shaping species distribution, whereas lithology (Lith) and soil type (ST) were the major non-climatic contributors influencing habitat suitability. Under future scenarios, suitable habitats showed spatial redistribution rather than uniform expansion or contraction. The spatial comparison among future scenarios identified stable habitats in the central and southwestern parts of Hainan Island, south-central Yunnan, and western Guangxi, with habitat losses mainly occurring in coastal South China and limited expansion in southwestern regions. Habitat centroid shifts were scenario dependent, with an eastward shift under SSP1-2.6 and northwestward shifts under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, with migration distances ranging from 60.09 to 165.77 km. These results indicate that climate change may substantially reorganize the distribution pattern of D. cochinchinensis in southern China. Therefore, future conservation planning should prioritize current high-suitability areas, potential macroclimatically stable areas, and emerging suitable habitats to support long-term preservation and sustainable utilization of nationally protected medicinal species. Full article

Urban informality in amphibious territories represents a critical yet understudied dimension of contemporary urbanisation in the Global South. This article analyses the interrelations between spatial transformation, social equity, and environmental change in Las Flores, an informal settlement located between the Mallorquín Lagoon and the Magdalena River in Barranquilla, Colombia. Drawing on a mixed-methods approach combining GIS interpretation, participatory mapping, and in-depth interviews, the study examines how processes of informal territorialisation have reshaped both the physical landscape and the social fabric of this amphibious environment. Results indicate that the settlement has expanded progressively over the past two decades, occupying areas of the wetland previously covered by mangroves and natural vegetation. This expansion has been accompanied by environmental degradation, soil infilling, and declining water quality. Residents face persistent infrastructural deficits, limited access to education and healthcare, and increasing social fragmentation between the formal and informal sectors. Yet, the community also exhibits strong organisational capacity, adaptive livelihoods, and a deep sense of place that sustains local identity and resilience. These dynamics exemplify the paradox of amphibious life: coexistence with water as both a resource and a source of vulnerability. Building on these findings, the study develops an urban socio-ecological conceptualisation of Amphibious Justice, a framework for interpreting equity, recognition, and governance in hybrid territories where urbanisation and land–water dynamics intersect. The article proposes a framework of equitable amphibious urbanism that integrates environmental restoration, social inclusion, and participatory governance. The findings suggest that sustainability in such territories cannot be achieved through technocratic restoration or forced resettlement, but through co-produced strategies that recognise local knowledge, tenure security, and ecological stewardship. Ultimately, the case of Las Flores offers insights into how cities in the Global South can pursue just and adaptive coexistence with water amid growing climate and urban pressures. Full article

Urban well-being in China emerges from spatially uneven configurations of development intensity, environmental pressure, governance input, public-service capacity, land-use transformation, and urban–rural conditions. Using a balanced panel of 294 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2023 (5880 city–year observations), this study combines spatial mapping, Local Moran’s I, Getis–Ord Gi*, and two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) models to examine how governance-related conditions and ecological and environmental pressure are associated with resident well-being. Prefecture-level cities are treated as urban–rural territorial governance units encompassing urban cores, peri-urban areas, and surrounding county-level jurisdictions. Spatial diagnostics reveal non-identical clustering of resource and environmental intensity (REI), government regulation and investment (GRI), ecological and environmental pressure (EEP), and resident well-being (RWB). REI is positively associated with EEP, and this association remains positive after excluding observations containing ordinary statistical completion. EEP is negatively associated with RWB in the full-sample TWFE and one-year-lagged specifications, but the association weakens in the 2014–2023 and restricted samples, indicating temporal and sample boundaries rather than a stable mediating mechanism. GRI shows contrasting cross-city and within-city patterns, consistent with a distinction between governance capacity and pressure-responsive adjustment. Dimension-level results further show that EEP is negatively associated with rural disposable income, whereas medical service capacity is positively associated with rural disposable income. Overall, the study provides a spatially grounded account of heterogeneous governance–environment–welfare relationships across Chinese prefecture-level territories. Full article

Rapid urban population aging and increasing land constraints pose significant challenges for improving both service coverage and spatial equity in elderly care facility planning. This study develops an integrated optimization framework that simultaneously addresses accessibility, efficiency, and equity in the spatial allocation of elderly care facilities. First, an improved Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (G2SFCA) method is employed to evaluate accessibility patterns across multiple facility types under both walking and driving scenarios. Second, resource allocation equity is quantified using Lorenz curves and spatial Gini coefficients to identify mismatches between elderly care supply and population demand. Building upon these analyses, a fairness-oriented maximum covering location model—termed the Equity Maximum Covering Location Problem (EMCLP)—is formulated and further transformed into a Markov Decision Process. A deep reinforcement learning-based algorithm is subsequently designed to solve the EMCLP under complex spatial constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves improved computational efficiency while maintaining robust solution quality, and effectively enhances service provision in underserved areas through differentiated functional allocation strategies. Full article

Lithium, as a Li-ion battery constituent, is pivotal for the transition to clean energy. Western Australia (WA) has become a global leader in hard-rock lithium mining, realising 10-fold growth from 2010 to 2024 and with royalty receipts to the WA government surpassing $1 billion AUD. Given the sector’s economic significance, we analyse key performance metrics including resource/reserve build, production growth, cumulative capital deployed, capital intensity, and development timelines for the new-generation lithium mines. Several enabling factors supported the rapid build-out of capacity. These include an efficient mine permitting process to manage environmental impacts and competing land use issues, a stable royalty regime, energy and logistics infrastructure, availability of a skilled workforce, and mining services capability. Contrary to the standard industry narrative that new mineral projects are constrained by legislative delay, the new lithium projects achieved development timelines of 7 years or less from first resource to production. This has broader implications for critical mineral projects where success is likely to depend less on strategic classification and more on project quality, financing, and regional capability. Full article

Soil erosion is a major environmental issue that threatens watershed ecological security and the sustainable use of land resources. Quantifying its spatiotemporal variability and associated environmental controls is important for sustainable land use planning and watershed management. To characterize the spatiotemporal variation in CSLE-simulated soil erosion and the relative explanatory contributions of environmental variables in the Qingyi River Basin, this study integrated rainfall, soil type, digital elevation model, land use, and vegetation coverage data for six observation years from 2000 to 2025 with GIS spatial analysis and the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE). Geodetector and CatBoost–SHAP were further applied to evaluate the explanatory contributions and interaction patterns of the selected environmental variables on the simulated erosion results. The results showed the following: (1) Woodland and cropland dominated the land use structure of the basin, while construction land increased from 90.95 km² to 164.21 km². Land use patterns differed markedly between the upstream and downstream areas, with woodland and grassland dominating the upstream area and cropland and construction land accounting for higher proportions in the downstream area. (2) Across the six observation years, the mean soil erosion modulus ranged from 135.74 to 378.39 t·km⁻²·a⁻¹, indicating generally low erosion levels, with the highest value occurring in 2015 and the lowest in 2025. (3) Soil erosion intensity was mainly characterized by slight and mild erosion, which together accounted for more than 95% of the basin area, whereas areas of moderate erosion and above were mainly concentrated in downstream mountainous areas and along both sides of river valleys. (4) The explanatory analysis showed that elevation, land use, and vegetation coverage made relatively high contributions to the spatial variability in the CSLE-simulated erosion results. Topographic and vegetation-related variables showed higher explanatory contributions in the upstream area, whereas land use showed a higher contribution in the downstream area. These findings provide a quantitative basis for soil erosion monitoring, the identification of priority areas for soil and water conservation, sustainable land use optimization, and region-specific watershed management in the Qingyi River Basin. Full article

Since the implementation of the Grain-for-Green Program (GGP), vegetation across the Loess Plateau (LP) has substantially recovered. However, whether the associated increase in ecosystem carbon gain was accompanied by a proportional increase in water consumption and whether groundwater storage changed synchronously remain unclear. This study integrated multi-source remote sensing products, GLDAS-Noah land-surface assimilation data, GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry, irrigation water-use data, provincial water-use statistics, and coal-resource information to examine long-term changes in gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency (WUE), soil moisture (SM), and groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) during 2002–2023. GPP increased significantly by 10.67 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ ($p<0.01$), whereas ET increased more modestly by 1.97 mm yr⁻¹ ($p<0.05$). The relative growth rate of GPP (1.66%) was approximately 3.5 times that of ET (0.47%), and WUE increased by 0.018 g C m⁻² mm⁻¹ yr⁻¹ ($p<0.01$). In the XGBoost–SHAP models for 2004–2019, LAI showed the strongest model-based association with GPP and WUE, whereas ET was associated more broadly with LAI, air temperature, and precipitation. SM declined during 2002–2015 but showed an increasing tendency during 2016–2023, particularly in the middle and deep layers. The long-term GWSA slopes derived from CSR and JPL were −8.707 and −9.505 mm yr⁻¹, respectively, and the averaged CSR–JPL GWSA series showed a Sen’s slope of −9.131 mm yr⁻¹. GWSA declined during 2002–2020 and showed only a short-term, nonsignificant increase during 2020–2023 (4.110 mm yr⁻¹, $p>0.05$). These contrasting trajectories indicate that increases in surface carbon uptake and improvements in soil-water conditions were not accompanied by synchronous regional groundwater recovery. Overall, the ecological-restoration period was accompanied by increased carbon gain and WUE without a proportional increase in regional ET, while groundwater storage followed a distinct trajectory. These findings provide regional-scale evidence and a quantitative basis for coordinating sustainable water-resource management with ecological-restoration optimization on the LP. Full article