Search Results (105)

The 2020 southern Puerto Rico earthquake sequence highlighted the severe seismic vulnerability of informally constructed two-story reinforced concrete (RC) houses. This study examines the failure mechanisms of these structures and assesses the effectiveness of first-floor RC shear-wall retrofitting. Nonlinear pushover and dynamic time–history analyses were performed using fiber-based distributed plasticity models for RC frames and nonlinear macro-elements for second-floor masonry infills, which introduced a significant inter-story stiffness imbalance. A bi-directional seismic input was applied using spectrally matched, near-fault pulse-like ground motions. The findings for the as-built structures showed that stiffness mismatches between stories, along with substantial strength and stiffness differences between orthogonal axes, resulted in concentrated plastic deformations and displacement-driven failures in the first story—consistent with damage observed during the 2020 earthquakes. Retrofitting the first floor with RC shear walls notably improved the performance, doubling the lateral load capacity and enhancing the overall stiffness. However, the retrofitted structures still exhibited a concentration of inelastic action—albeit with lower demands—shifted to the second floor, indicating potential for further optimization. Full article

The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder producers in Ghana, considering both the opportunities and risks associated with the evolving regulatory environment under EUDR and local market access conditions. A cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to evaluate the impact of different EUDR-related export decline scenarios on the net present value (NPV) of a standard 4-hectare plantation. The results suggest that even a minor 2.5% decline in global exports to the EU could increase the NPV by 17% for an independent compliant producer. However, a simulated COVID-19-like crisis in the fifth year of production leads to a 20% decline in NPV, reflecting vulnerability to external shocks. Based on these findings, the study identifies two priorities. This first is improving the coordination and harmonization of compliance efforts across the value chain to enable more producers to benefit from potential EUDR-related price increases. The recent creation of the Association of Natural Rubber Actors of Ghana (ANRAG) presents an opportunity to support such collective mechanisms. Second, minimizing losses during demand shocks requires the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA) to establish clear rules and transparent reporting for authorizing unprocessed rubber exports when factories reduce purchases due to low international prices—thus preserving market access for vulnerable producers. Together, these approaches would ensure that the potential benefits of the EUDR are realized inclusively, remain stable despite market downturns, and do not undermine value addition in domestic processing factories. Full article

During the 1970s’ military dictatorships in Chile and Brazil, the Catholic Church took the position of moral opposition to the authoritarian regimes, while in Argentina, the Church sided with the dictatorship. In his pathbreaking book utilizing the religious economy model, Anthony Gill theorized that the Church in Chile adopted a critical stance against the regime due to competition from Protestant Churches. Subsequently, Gill’s specific arguments and the religious economy model in general have been widely applied but also critiqued by sociologists of religion. Through a deeper analysis of the three case studies of Argentina, Chile, and Brazil, we support and extend theoretical critiques of the religious economy model. We argue that that the religious economy model as applied by Gill is an insufficient predictor of church and state behavior because it lacks specificity on the amount of competition necessary to warrant taking progressive action, lacks specificity about the timing of Protestant competition, ignores the pre-existing position of the Catholic Church, treats the demand side of the religious market as inelastic, assumes the Catholic Church intentionally implemented progressive policies in response to competition, presumes the Church is a unitary actor, and disregards the impact of a perceived Marxist threat on both church and state actors. Our critique of the religious economy model points to refinements of the model and alternative approaches to understanding church and state behavior in Latin America and elsewhere. Full article

Rising population, combined with declining home food production, in Arab nations has resulted in increased food imports that intensifies their dependence on international markets for vital food supplies. These nations face challenges in achieving food security because crude oil price volatility creates difficulties in managing the expenses of imported food products. This research calculates the income and price elasticities of imported food demand to understand consumer behavior changes in response to income and price variations, which helps to explain their impact on regional food security. To our knowledge, this research presents the first analysis of imported food consumption patterns across Arab countries according to their income brackets. This study employs the static Almost Ideal Demand System model to examine food import data spanning from 1961 to 2020. The majority of imported food categories demonstrate inelastic price and income demand, which means that their essential food consumption remains stable despite cost fluctuations. The need for imports makes Arab nations vulnerable to external price changes, which endangers their food security. This research demonstrates why governments must implement policies through subsidies and taxation to reduce price volatility risks while ensuring food stability, which will lead to sustained food security for these nations. Full article

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is critical for sustainable development, particularly in rapidly urbanizing countries like Turkiye. This study analyzes fuel demand elasticities for diesel, gasoline, and LPG across 12 NUTS-1 regions of Turkiye in 2022, using a panel random effects SUR approach. The model accounts for regional variation and fuel interactions, producing robust estimates that uncover significant spatial and temporal differences in consumption patterns. Uniquely, diesel demand displays a significantly positive price elasticity, challenging the conventional assumption of inelasticity. Gasoline demand is moderately price-sensitive, while LPG appears relatively unresponsive. Strong cross-price elasticities—especially between diesel and gasoline—point to substitution effects that can inform more adaptive policy frameworks. Seasonal fluctuations and Istanbul’s outsized impact also shape national trends. These findings underscore the need for differentiated region- and fuel-specific strategies. While higher gasoline taxes may effectively reduce demand, lowering diesel and LPG use will require complementary measures such as infrastructure upgrades, behavioral incentives, and accelerated adoption of alternative fuels. The study advocates for regionally adjusted carbon pricing, removal of implicit subsidies, and targeted support for electric and hybrid vehicles. Aligning fiscal tools with actual demand behavior can enhance both the efficiency and equity of the transition to a low-carbon transportation system. Full article

Post-earthquake structural rehabilitation faces critical challenges from aftershock-induced cumulative damage, particularly through residual displacement accumulation that compromises structural realignment feasibility. While residual displacements serve as pivotal indicators for repair-or-replace decisions, the amplification effects of aftershocks on such displacements remain systematically underexplored. This study investigates residual displacement demands of bilinear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems subjected to mainshock–aftershock sequences. A novel metric is proposed, defined as the maximum residual displacement considering both isolated mainshock and full sequence scenarios, normalized against peak inelastic displacements (termed residual displacement ratio) for predictive analysis. The influence of sequence characteristics (duration, frequency content, aftershock intensity) and structural properties (post-yield stiffness ratio, displacement ductility, natural period) on residual displacement ratios is evaluated. Statistical analysis reveals that aftershocks amplify mainshock-induced residual displacements in the statistical mean sense, with an observed maximum increase reaching up to 72%. The mainshock with stronger aftershocks tends to result in larger residual displacement ratios. A constant-ductility residual displacement ratio response spectrum is finally developed for the repairability assessment of structures against mainshock–aftershock sequences in terms of residual displacements. Full article

This study investigates the effectiveness of active structural control in mitigating seismic damage of inelastic structures. A fuzzy control algorithm is integrated into a custom-developed finite element routine to examine the relationship between maximum control force requirements and the resulting structural damage state. Consequently, a series of nonlinear dynamic simulations was conducted on 3D inelastic numerical models representing five building typologies—three residential, one office, and one school using seismic inputs from two historical earthquakes. Structural damage was quantified using the Park–Ang damage index. Key findings show that active control can reduce structural damage of inelastic structures, but its effectiveness depends on seismic input and the complexity structural layout. Lower forces are adequate for low-rise or simple buildings, while taller or complex structures require substantially higher forces, which may be challenging to apply in real applications. Moreover, the results emphasize how local seismic conditions and variations in building dynamic characteristics impact the demands in control forces. Full article

Two large earthquakes with a series of aftershocks struck southeastern Türkiye within 9 h and had catastrophic consequences. Following the earthquake doublet, 11 provinces corresponding to approximately 1/7 of Türkiye were declared disaster zones. Even though the epicenters of the first event and second mainshocks were in Pazarcik and Elbistan with a magnitude ($M_w$) of 7.7 and 7.6 with over 500 km of multiple-fault ruptures, Hatay province was the most heavily damaged province and had the highest number of casualties and collapsed buildings. A densely deployed strong ground motion array of the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Turkey (AFAD) recorded the earthquake doublet of the two consequent mainshocks, including ground motions exhibiting near-fault features. A suite of recorded ground motions in Hatay province is incorporated to examine the destructiveness of ground motions on reinforced concrete Moment-Resisting Frame buildings and the effectiveness of seismic isolation technology to reduce the observed damage. Moreover, Turkish Seismic Design Code-2018 code provisions are elaborated to determine the characteristics of the investigated structures. Nonlinear response history analyses were conducted for 24 types of structures by following the design provisions. The inelastic hysteretic response features in the fixed-base and isolation systems are represented through an inelastic Single-Degree-of-Freedom Bouc–Wen hysteretic model. Extreme characteristics of near-fault ground motions on RC structures and seismically isolated systems resulted in excessive drift and displacement demands. Roof drifts of reinforced concrete Moment-Resisting-Frame buildings exceeded 4% roof drift in mid-rise buildings, compatible with the field observations in Antakya city center, where the displacement demand and ultimate base shear coefficient of seismically isolated structures considered in this study exceeded the elastic spectral coefficient values of the design spectrum in the proximity of fault ruptures. Full article

This study numerically investigated retrofitted transmission towers subjected to static wind loads using nonlinear pushover analysis, emphasizing enhanced structural resilience and safety. Transmission towers are critical infrastructure that must withstand extreme wind conditions. However, aging structures and increasing load demands necessitate effective retrofitting strategies. The nonlinear pushover analysis employs advanced finite element modeling to simulate the nonlinear inelastic behavior of towers under incremental static wind loads until failure. Six retrofitting methods are presented and compared to identify the most effective retrofitting approach for the considered tower. The findings reveal that retrofitting significantly improves the capacity, ductility, and stiffness of transmission towers under static wind loads, delaying buckling and failure. The proposed retrofit method enhances tower capacity by at least 10% compared to the non-retrofitted configuration. Full article

We develop a flexible supply and demand equilibrium framework that can be used to develop pricing models to forecast Bitcoin’s price trajectory based on its fixed, inelastic supply and evolving demand dynamics. This approach integrates Bitcoin’s unique monetary attributes with demand drivers such as institutional adoption and long-term holding patterns. Using the April 2024 halving as a baseline, we explore model scenarios with varying assumptions about growth in adoption and supply-side constraints, calibrated to real-world data. Our findings indicate that institutional and sovereign accumulation can significantly influence price trajectories, with increasing demand intensifying the impact of Bitcoin’s constrained liquidity. Forecasts suggest that modest withdrawals from liquid supply to strategic reserves could lead to substantial price appreciation over the medium term, while higher withdrawal levels may induce volatility due to supply scarcity. These results highlight Bitcoin’s potential as a long-term investment and underline the importance of integrating economic fundamentals into forward-looking portfolio strategies. Our framework provides flexibility for testing different market scenarios, demand curve functional forms, and parameterizations, offering a tool for investors and policymakers considering Bitcoin’s role as a strategic asset. By advancing a fundamentals-based approach, this study contributes to the broader understanding of how Bitcoin’s supply–demand dynamics influence market behavior. Full article

Gabon depends heavily on food imports to safeguard its food security; yet household food consumption patterns remain underexplored. This study investigates the structure of food demand in the Estuaire region, incorporating demographic determinants such as the age of the household head, household size, youth proportion, and residential distance from shopping centers. Using primary data collected from a randomized survey of 410 households, the analysis employs the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model to estimate expenditure and price elasticities. The results indicate that expenditure elasticities are universally positive, with luxury items, including meat, eggs, and fish, exhibiting greater sensitivity compared to staple foods such as poultry, oil, rice, cassava, and bananas, which display inelastic demand. Price elasticities for meat, poultry, fish, eggs, and rice are negative, adhering to the law of demand. Demographic factors, including education, age, and residential location, significantly influence the consumption of meat, cassava, bananas, and oil. Household size, employment type, and youth composition also emerge as critical determinants of increased demand for poultry, fish, and rice. These findings offer policy-relevant insights to strengthen food security and address socioeconomic disparities. Full article

Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are essential for microgrid operations to be financially viable. PHEVs can serve as mobile storage devices, storing excess energy during times of low demand and delivering it during times of high demand. By offering reliable on-site energy storage, BESSs improve cost efficiency by allowing the microgrid to store cheap, off-peak electricity and release it when prices increase. To minimize generation costs and alleviate grid stress during periods of high demand, load-shifting policies shift inelastic loads to off-peak hours when energy prices are lower. When combined, these tactics support dependable, affordable, and effective microgrid management. A recently developed RIME algorithm is used as the optimization tool to reduce the total operating cost (TOC) of an MG system for three cases and three situations. The cases emphasize a modified load demand style influenced by the optimal load-shifting method (OLSM) and order characteristics load-shifting policy (OCLSP), whereas the situations refer to the inclusion of ESS in the MG system. The TOC decreased from $2624 without ESS to $2611 and $2331 with PHEVs and BESSs, respectively. These costs were further reduced to $1192, $1162, and $1147, respectively, when OLSM was implemented to restructure the base load demand. Additionally, a balance between a minimal TOC and carbon emission was obtained when an OLSM-based load demand model was used with BESSs. The RIME algorithm outperformed many recently developed algorithms and is consistent and robust, yielding better quality solutions. Full article

India, the world’s leading rice exporter, banned the export of non-Basmati white rice, accounting for 25% of its total exports (or 10% of the global rice trade). The ban aims to ensure availability to domestic Indian consumers and reduce domestic market prices, impacting global rice market accessibility, consumers, and producers across twelve regions. The study utilized the global simulation model (GSIM) to analyze the effects of trade restrictions on industries. The model uses national product differentiation to assess trade policy changes at global, regional, or national scales. It examined importer and exporter effects on trade values, tariff revenues, exporter surplus, and importer surplus. It found that India’s Voluntary Export Restraint (VER) ban on non-Basmati rice resulted in a higher local price and a negative global net welfare impact of USD 1.7 billion. The losses decreased to USD 1.4 billion when importing countries responded by reducing rice import tariffs by 25% and USD 1.1 billion when importing countries reduced tariffs by 75%. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council regions were most affected. The study also found minimal impact on consumer surplus in India due to inelastic rice demand. Full article

Chicken eggs are a staple food widely consumed directly or indirectly (as an ingredient in other food items) in Saudi Arabia. Due to the importance of eggs in Saudi consumers’ diet, this study aimed to determine the sociodemographic factors affecting Saudi consumer demand for eggs and how changes in egg prices and consumer income may influence dietary intake derived from eggs. This study analyzes survey data from 466 respondents. We used a double-log demand model to obtain the price and income elasticities of egg demand. The results show that the price elasticity of egg demand is negative and inelastic, indicating that changes in egg price have a small influence on egg demand. Additionally, income elasticity is positive and <1, implying that eggs are a necessary food item. Cross-price elasticities show that cheese and milk complement egg consumption. Meanwhile, cornflakes (a breakfast cereal) were found to be a good substitute for eggs. Furthermore, the results show that consumer demand for eggs is expected to increase as household size increases. Women exhibited a higher demand for eggs, compared with men. Nutrient income elasticity shows that an increase in consumer income increases protein, fat, and calorie intake from eggs. Nutrient price elasticity shows that an increase in egg price has the greatest negative influence on protein intake, resulting from a decrease in egg consumption. This study recommends that decision makers actively monitor egg prices and take all necessary actions to prevent spikes in egg prices, as this will improve nutritional and food security and help consumers maintain a stable protein intake from egg consumption. Full article

Water pricing is an economic instrument traditionally used to reduce water demand. However, its effective implementation requires knowledge of the extent to which users reduce water consumption with increasing water prices. The price elasticity of water demand has been estimated using econometric regression, which relies on cross-sectional and time-series water data. As an alternative, we propose the use of agent-based modelling, which does not require reliable historical data on water prices and consumption and enables the simulation of multiple scenarios with different consumer profiles, behaviour profiles and water price changes, thereby allowing comprehensive understanding of price elasticity estimates. To illustrate the potential use of agent-based modelling for the estimation of water demand price elasticity, we performed an empirical application to a residential area in Chile. Price elasticity estimates ranged from −0.0159 to −0.1036 (mean −0.0250), indicating that residential water consumption is inelastic to price changes. This result is consistent with previous findings. Agent-based modelling is an alternative for the ex-ante assessment of the potential effectiveness of water pricing policies intended to reduce residential water demand. Full article