Search Results (409)

In 2022, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely impacted the EU’s energy supply chain, and the EU’s natural gas import pattern has begun to reconstruct, and exploring the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas trade and its driving factors is the basis for improving the resilience of its supply chain and ensuring the stable supply of energy resources. This paper summarizes the law of the change of its import volume by using the complex network method, constructs a multi-dimensional index system such as demand, economy, and security, and uses the geographic detector model to mine the driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of natural gas imports in EU countries and propose different sustainable development paths. The results show that from 2000 to 2023, Europe’s natural gas imports generally show an upward trend, and the import structure has undergone great changes, from pipeline gas dominance to LNG diversification. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the number of import source countries has increased, the market network has become looser, France has become the core hub of the EU natural gas market, the importance of Russia has declined rapidly, and the status of countries in the United States, North Africa, and the Middle East has increased rapidly; natural gas consumption is the leading factor in the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas imports, and the influence of import distance and geopolitical risk is gradually expanding, and the proportion of energy consumption is significantly higher than that of other factors in the interaction with other factors. Combined with the driving factors, three different evolutionary directions of natural gas imports in EU countries are identified, and energy security paths such as improving supply chain control capabilities, ensuring export stability, and using location advantages to become hub nodes are proposed for different development trends. Full article

The effects of changes in China’s final demand structure on its forestry sector and associated supply chains have not been thoroughly examined. This study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the quantitative relationships and underlying mechanisms between these interactive changes. Using China’s 153-sector input–output tables from the National Bureau of Statistics and applying a Leontief-based input–output model, we conducted scenario simulations through three distinct schemes, generating both quantitative and qualitative results. Our findings indicate that (1) For China’s forestry sector and its entire value chain to thrive, policymakers should boost consumer demand. This can better stimulate the development of forestry and the “agriculture-forestry-animal husbandry-fishery services” sector and related service industries; (2) Increased investment demand effectively stimulates the development of tertiary industries and secondary industries within the forestry supply chain and boosts the demand and production of intermediate products; (3) Changes in net exports have a significant impact on forestry and the forestry industry chain. To reduce dependence on foreign timber resources, China should strategically expand commercial plantation development; (4) Regarding intermediate product production, investment has a more pronounced effect on increasing total volume compared to consumption. Additionally, the Sino–US tariff disputes negatively impact the forestry industries of both countries. China needs to accelerate import substitution strategies for timber products, adjust international trade markets, and expand domestic consumption and investment to ensure the healthy and stable development of its forestry sector. Full article

The international trade in agricultural products is complex and diverse. Global buyers must diversify their import sources, while sellers must explore new market opportunities. In the past, there has been no analysis on how second-tier exporters, with a smaller market share compared to dominant exporters, interact in the same target market and within an existing trade market and what factors affect trade prices and market forces. Based on Vollrath’s revealed competitive advantage index framework, this study analyzes the global tangerine trade (HS08052100) and means of production from 2008 to 2021, performs clustering, and estimates the residual demand elasticities of two main second-tier exporting countries—South Africa and Morocco—in four major importing countries for empirical analysis. The results show that South African tangerines have a lower market share than Moroccan tangerines in the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom. However, all data indicate that the residual demand elasticity for the country’s products in the target markets is negative, indicating that South African exporters have market influence in all three markets and significantly affect the prices of Moroccan products in these markets. Unlike other studies that have focused on the ranking analysis of export indices, the novelty of this study is that it provides an oligopolistic framework based on agricultural value chain analysis, which can be used for many countries with limited export scales. The method proposed in this study is expected to help citrus traders to effectively find export markets by evaluating the remaining market niches using key market data and the prices of similar competitors in the same category. Full article

Nowadays, food traceability represents an important issue in the current context of trade agreements, which influence global food prices. Many consumers prefer to pay a higher price for a traditional cultivation regime of a certain food product that comes from a certain region, appreciating the taste of the respective foodstuff. The potato is now the world’s fourth most important food crop in terms of human consumption, after wheat, maize, and rice. In this context, 100 potato samples from the Romanian market were collected. While 68 samples came from Romania, the rest of the 32 were from abroad (Hungary, France, Greece, Italy, Germany, Egypt, and Poland). The countries selected for potato sample analysis are among the main exporters of potatoes to the Romanian market. The samples were investigated by their multi-elemental and isotopic (²H, ¹⁸O and ¹³C) fingerprints, using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS). Then, to distinguish the geographical origin, the experimental results were statistically processed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA). The best markers that emphasize Romanian potatoes were identified to be δ¹³C_bulk, δ²H_water, and Sr. Full article

Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each country. Alongside oil and gold, the main commodities traded include industrial metals, such as aluminum and copper, mineral products such as gas, electrical and electronic components, agricultural products, and precious metals. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine tested the unification of markets, given that these are countries with notable raw materials and are strongly dedicated to exports. This suggests that commodity prices were able to influence the stock markets, especially in the countries most closely linked to the two belligerents in terms of import-export. Given the importance of industrial metals in this period of energy transition, the aim of our study is to analyze whether Industrial Metals volatility affects G7 stock markets. To this end, the BEKK-GARCH model is used. The sample period spans from 3 January 2018 to 17 September 2024. The results show that lagged shocks and volatility significantly and positively influence the current conditional volatility of commodity and stock returns during all periods. In fact, past shocks inversely influence the current volatility of stock indices in periods when external events disrupt financial markets. The results show a non-linear and positive impact of commodity volatility on the implied volatility of the stock markets. The findings suggest that the war significantly affected stock prices and exacerbated volatility, so investors should diversify their portfolios to maximize returns and reduce risk differently in times of crisis, and a lack of diversification of raw materials is a risky factor for investors. Full article

In the context of global timber supply chains facing policy adjustments, resource fluctuations, and market uncertainties, this study focuses on the resilience of the Sino-Russian timber supply chain. A system dynamics (SD) model is developed to analyze the dynamic evolution of the key segments. By integrating the entropy weight–TOPSIS method, the research quantitatively assesses overall supply chain resilience by synthesizing data from four capability dimensions—Russian logistics and transportation capability, Russian primary wood processing capability, Sino-Russian timber import–export capability, and Heilongjiang furniture sales capability—over the 2017–2033 period. Results indicate a “first decline, then rise” trajectory for resilience, with a minimum normalized resilience index of 0.1549 recorded in 2021, followed by a gradual recovery and sustained strengthening thereafter. Among evaluated segments, Russian logistics demonstrates the strongest short-term shock resistance (36.2% reduction in minimum resilience), while Heilongjiang’s sales segment exhibits optimal long-term recoverability (the normalized resilience index increased by an average of 0.0363 units per year during the recovery phase). Based on these findings, a “short-term logistics enhancement–long-term demand-driven” strategy is proposed to improve resilience, providing actionable insights for the high-quality development of the Sino-Russian timber supply chain. Full article

Crop production in Kazakhstan is characterized by vast resources, including over 200 M hectares of farmland and more than 23 M hectares of arable land located mainly in the arid zone with a short growing season. In 2023, the five most important crops in the country were spring wheat (12.5 M ha), spring barley (2.42 M ha), sunflower (1.13 M ha), flax (0.73 M ha), and winter wheat (0.59 M ha). Diverse agroecological conditions and low input farming represent good opportunities for the more sustainable use of resources through organic production. However, the area falling under certified organic farming recently varied from 0.1 to 0.3 M ha with wheat, flax, soybean and soybean meal, peas and lentils serving as the main commodities exported to Europe. Several factors limit organic farming development in the country, including the certification system, marketing, and the availability of crops, cultivars, and technologies. The current review summarizes the main organic agronomic practices and bioresources applicable in Kazakhstan into four main themes: crops and cultivars’ diversification; tillage systems for organic crops; crop nutrition; and protection. The technologies developed for organic farming in similar ecologies globally are highly relevant to Kazakhstan and need to be tested and adopted by producers. The lack of targeted cultivars and technology development for organic production in Kazakhstan impedes its progress and requires a longer-term producer-focused framework to extend related research. Full article

Crude oil is a widely recognized, indispensable global and national economic resource. It is significantly susceptible to the boundless fluctuations attributed to various variables. Despite its capacity to sustain the global economic framework, the embedded uncertainties correlated with the crude oil markets present formidable challenges that investors must diligently navigate. In this research, we propose a hybrid machine learning model based on random forest (RF), gated recurrent unit (GRU), conventional neural network (CNN), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), functional partial least squares (FPLS), and stacking. This hybrid model facilitates the decision-making process related to the import and export of crude oil in India. The precision and reliability of the different machine learning models utilized in this study were validated through rigorous evaluation using various error metrics, ensuring a thorough assessment of their forecasting capabilities. The conclusive results revealed that the proposed hybrid ensemble model consistently delivered effective and robust predictions compared to the individual models. Full article

Thaumatotibia leucotreta, an important citrus pest in southern Africa, is subject to phytosanitary regulations for certain export markets. A systems approach has been developed as an alternative to standalone postharvest disinfestation methods, integrating multiple risk mitigation steps, including preharvest infestation monitoring. This study aimed to validate an existing preharvest monitoring protocol based on fallen fruit collected under designated data trees and to develop a novel monitoring system based on sampling of sanitation fruit. Monitoring was conducted in seven Navel orange orchards (N = 7 each year) during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, representing high and low infestation levels, respectively. Infestation levels were assessed over 11–12 weeks by inspecting fruit beneath four sets of five trees and all sanitation fruit collected per orchard. The new system, which involves inspecting a 100-fruit sample per orchard, was compared with the previous method. While the five-tree protocol tended to overestimate infestation, it remained effective. The sanitation-fruit sampling approach accurately reflected orchard-level infestation, with a 100-fruit sample sufficient for orchards as large as 20 hectares. Although random sampling is recommended, it was not essential for effectiveness. These results support the use of the new monitoring procedure in the systems approach for citrus exports for T. leucotreta risk mitigation. Full article

Concentrated apple juice (AJC) is a globally traded commodity, with major producers such as China, Poland, and the United States supplying AJC to markets worldwide. The aim of this article is to determine the competitive position of the main global exporters of concentrated apple juice. It also seeks to analyze changes in their positions over the period from 2005 to 2023. Assessing competitive position is important for several economic and business reasons, including identifying leading exporters and recognizing both growing and declining markets. The competitive position was measured using Market Share (MS) indicators, Gross and Net Export Orientation indicators (E_gr, E_net), and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. The results reveal significant structural shifts in global AJC trade. Most notably, China’s declining competitiveness, reflected across all indicators, led to its loss of market leadership. This raises questions about the reasons for this decline and whether it presents opportunities for other exporters. This signals a broader reconfiguration in the global AJC supply chain, driven in part by domestic economic changes, such as rising consumption and decreasing export orientation. Simultaneously, other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, show varying degrees of competitive growth, with Moldova and Ukraine emerging as key players. These trends suggest a diversification of supply sources and a more fragmented competitive landscape. Although national differences persist, the analysis indicates that structural and economic transformations, rather than short-term price signals, are driving the evolving global competitiveness in the AJC market. The observed weak correlations between prior-year apple prices and RCA confirm that broader market and policy factors play a more decisive role. Full article

Sustainability in agribusiness is pivotal for addressing environmental challenges and ensuring long-term agricultural productivity, particularly in resource-constrained regions. This descriptive and exploratory study aims to develop and prioritize strategies to enhance the sustainability of greenhouse agribusiness in Hamedan Province, Iran, offering practical insights for policymakers and practitioners. We employed a comprehensive approach, integrating a systematic literature review with semi-structured interviews conducted with 18 purposively selected experts, including university faculty, agricultural researchers, and sector managers. Through SWOT analysis, we identified key internal strengths (e.g., year-round production potential) and weaknesses (e.g., high energy consumption), as well as external opportunities (e.g., access to export markets) and threats (e.g., reliance on imports). The analysis revealed that the most effective strategies for promoting sustainable greenhouse development are predominantly defensive, focusing on mitigating internal weaknesses and external threats. Using the TOWS matrix, we developed and prioritized strategic recommendations, including policy frameworks for organic production, a national sustainability support program, and cooperative marketing initiatives to improve market access. These strategies can serve as a roadmap for enhancing greenhouse sustainability in Hamedan and offer a replicable framework for similar semi-arid regions facing comparable challenges. Full article

With the acceleration of globalization, the connections between emerging market economies are becoming increasingly intricate, making it crucial to understand the mechanisms of risk transmission. This study employs the transfer entropy model to analyze risk diffusion and network resilience across ten emerging market countries. The findings reveal that Brazil, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia are the primary risk exporters, while countries such as India, South Africa, and Indonesia predominantly act as risk receivers. The research highlights the profound impact of major events such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on risk diffusion, with risk diffusion peaking during the pandemic. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of network resilience, suggesting that certain levels of noise and shocks can enhance resilience and improve network stability. While the global economy gradually recovered following the 2008 financial crisis, the post-pandemic recovery has been slower, with external shocks and noise presenting long-term challenges to network resilience. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding network resilience and risk diffusion mechanisms, offering new insights for managing risk transmission in future global economic crises. Full article

The avocado has gained worldwide relevance due to its nutritional benefits, and in the last two decades, its consumption has experienced remarkable growth, driven by changes in eating habits, especially during the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) virus. This boom has had a significant impact on exporting countries such as Peru, which stands out as a key driver of economic growth due to avocado exports. The present study aims to analyse the impact of avocado exports on Peru’s economic growth during the period 2005–2023, utilising a quantitative approach and a non-experimental design, employing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. The findings indicated that avocado exports and the gross domestic agricultural product exert a positive influence on economic growth, with a statistical significance of 97%. This suggests that a 1% rise in exports results in a 0.40% increase in GDP. Avocado exports have been instrumental in enhancing Peru’s economic competitiveness on the global stage, although challenges persist with regard to sustainability and the inclusion of small-scale producers. The study concluded with the assertion that avocado exports exert a positive effect on 0.40% of economic growth in per capita terms, with an overall significance of 97%. This finding allows us to infer, through the factors, that avocado exports play an important role in market dynamics and in contributing to Peru’s economic growth, as well as their important implications for sustainable development policies. Full article

The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the international competitiveness of Polish fruits and their processed products in comparison to those of major global exporters. The adopted research approach is grounded in the theoretical foundations of international trade. A comparative analysis allows for identifying key competitive advantages and weaknesses. Quantitative data analysis was employed to measure international competitiveness using key indicators such as Market Share (MS), Trade Balance, Competitiveness Ratio (CR), Revealed comparative advantage (RCA), Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), and Terms of Trade (ToT). These metrics were calculated based on data obtained from Comtrade, with results presented in a time-series format to capture long-term trends. An extensive literature review was conducted to examine the various definitions and frameworks of international competitiveness. The decline in the level of indicators that include imports in their formulas (CRs) may lead to an increase in the level of indicators that take exports into account (e.g., foreign trade balance and share in global exports). For example, a strong increase in the import of concentrated apple juice results in an increase in the export of this product and an improvement in the competitive position on the global market. The insights from these indicators can assist policymakers in developing targeted strategies to enhance the competitiveness of the agricultural sector, such as improving production methods, negotiating better trade agreements, or investing in innovation and quality improvement. Full article

This study employs asymmetric quantile regression to investigate the asymmetric impact of WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock market returns from May 2014 to December 2024 in oil-importing (China, India, Germany, Italy, Japan, USA, and South Korea) and oil-exporting (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates) countries. The findings reveal that an increase in oil prices significantly impacts the returns of all countries. For oil-importing countries, an increase in oil prices consistently exhibits a positive impact, with insignificant effects in lower and medium quantiles and significant effects in higher quantiles. Conversely, a decrease in oil prices generally decreases stock market returns across all quantiles. This study offers valuable insights for investors to manage risks and improve the predictability of oil price fluctuations. It also provides strategies and policy implications for capitalists and decision-makers. By addressing contemporary issues and using up-to-date data, the study supports financial institutions and portfolio managers in formulating effective strategies. Full article