Search Results (10)

Quantum finance, as a key application scenario of quantum computing, showcases multiple significant advantages of quantum machine learning over traditional machine learning methods. This paper first aims to overcome the limitations of the hidden quantum Markov model (HQMM) in handling continuous data and proposes an innovative method to convert continuous data into discrete-time sequence data. Second, a hybrid quantum computing model is developed to forecast stock market trends. The model was used to predict 15 stock indices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between June 2018 and June 2021. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed quantum model outperforms classical algorithmic models in handling higher complexity, achieving improved efficiency, reduced computation time, and superior predictive performance. This validation of quantum advantage in financial forecasting enables the practical deployment of quantum-inspired prediction models by investors and institutions in trading environments. This quantum-enhanced model empowers investors to predict market regimes (bullish/bearish/range-bound) using real-time data, enabling dynamic portfolio adjustments, optimized risk controls, and data-driven allocation shifts. Full article

This study explores the presence of hidden market regimes in a sector-specific stock index within the Thai equity market. The behavior of such indices often deviates from broader macroeconomic trends, making it difficult for conventional models to detect regime changes. To overcome this limitation, the study employs a multivariate Gaussian mixture hidden Markov model, which enables the identification of unobservable states based on daily and intraday return patterns. These patterns include open-to-close, open-to-high, and low-to-open returns. The model is estimated using various specifications, and the best-performing structure is chosen based on the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion. The final model reveals three statistically distinct regimes that correspond to bullish, sideways, and bearish conditions. Statistical tests, particularly the Kruskal–Wallis method, confirm that return distributions, trading volume, and open interest differ significantly across these regimes. Additionally, the analysis incorporates risk measures, including expected shortfall, maximum drawdown, and the coefficient of variation. The results indicate that the bearish regime carries the highest risk, whereas the bullish regime is relatively stable. These findings offer practical insights for regime-aware portfolio management in sectoral equity markets. Full article

Bitcoin’s role in global finance has rapidly expanded with increasing institutional participation, prompting new questions about its linkage to macroeconomic variables. This study thoughtfully integrates a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) covariate selection process within homogeneous and non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to analyze 16 macroeconomic and Bitcoin-specific factors from 2016 to 2024. The proposed method integrates likelihood penalties to refine variable selection and employs a rolling-window bootstrap procedure for 1-, 5-, and 30-step-ahead forecasting. Results indicate a fundamental shift: while early Bitcoin pricing was primarily driven by technical and supply-side factors (e.g., halving cycles, trading volume), later periods exhibit stronger ties to macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rates and major stock indices. Heightened volatility aligns with significant events—including regulatory changes and institutional announcements—underscoring Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. These findings demonstrate that integrating Bayesian MCMC within a regime-switching model provides robust insights into Bitcoin’s deepening connection with traditional financial forces. Full article

Understanding how crises like the COVID-19 pandemic affect variable annuity pricing is crucial, especially in emerging markets like India. The motivation is that financial stability and risk management in these markets depend heavily on accurate pricing models. While prior research has primarily focused on Western markets, there is a significant gap in analyzing the impact of extreme volatility and regime-dependent dynamics on variable annuities in emerging economies. This study investigates how regime shifts during the COVID-19 pandemic influence variable annuity pricing in the Indian stock market, specifically using the Nifty 50 Index data from 7 September 2017 until 7 September 2023. Advanced methodologies, including regime-switching hidden Markov models, artificial neural networks, and Monte Carlo simulations, were applied to analyze pre- and post-COVID-19 market behavior. The regime-switching hidden Markov models effectively capture latent market regimes and their transitions, which traditional models often overlook, while neural networks provide flexible functional approximations that enhance pricing accuracy in highly non-linear environments. The Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm was employed to achieve robust calibration and enhance pricing accuracy. The analysis showed significant pricing variations across market regimes, with heightened volatility observed during the pandemic. The findings highlight the effectiveness of regime-switching models in capturing market dynamics, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty and turbulence. This research contributes to the understanding of variable annuity pricing under regime-dependent dynamics in emerging markets and offers practical implications for improved risk management and policy formulation. Full article

Over the years, oil prices and financial stock markets have always had a complex relationship. This paper analyzes the interactions and co-movements between the oil market (WTI crude oil) and two major stock markets in Europe and the US (the Euro Stoxx 50 and the SP500) for the period from 1990 to 2023. For that, I use both the time-varying and the Markov copula models. The latter one represents an extension of the former one, where the constant term of the dynamic dependence parameter is driven by a hidden two-state first-order Markov chain. It is also called the dynamic regime-switching (RS) copula model. To estimate the model, I use the inference function for margins (IFM) method together with Kim’s filter for the Markov switching process. The marginals of the returns are modeled by the GARCH and GAS models. Empirical results show that the RS copula model seems adequate to measure and evaluate the time-varying and non-linear dependence structure. Two persistent regimes of high and low dependency have been detected. There was a jump in the co-movements of both pairs during high regimes associated with instability and crises. In addition, the extreme dependence between crude oil and US/European stock markets is time-varying but also asymmetric, as indicated by the SJC copula. The correlation in the lower tail is higher than that in the upper. Hence, oil and stock returns are more closely joined and tend to co-move more closely together in bullish periods than in bearish periods. Finally, the dependence between WTI crude oil and the SP500 stock index seems to be more affected by exogenous shocks and instability than the oil and European stock markets. Full article

The key to understanding the dynamics of stock markets, particularly the mechanisms of their changes, is in the concept of the market regime. It is regarded as a regular transition from one state to another. Although the market agenda is never the same, its functioning regime allows us to reveal the logic of its development. The article employs the concept of financial turbulence to identify hidden market regimes. These are revealed through the ratio of the components, which describe single changes of correlated risks and volatility. The combinations of typical and atypical variates of correlational and magnitude components of financial turbulence allowed four hidden regimes to be revealed. These were arranged by the degree of financial turbulence, conceptually analyzed and assessed from the perspective of their duration. The empirical data demonstrated ETF day trading profits for S&P 500 sectors, covering the period of January 1998–August 2020, as well as day trade profits of the Russian blue chips within the period of October 2006–February 2021. The results show a significant difference in regard to the market performance and volatility, which depend on hidden regimes. Both sample data groups demonstrated similar contemporaneous and lagged effects, which allows the prediction of volatility jumps in the periods following atypical correlations. Full article

Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a powerful machine-learning method for data regime detection, especially time series data. In this paper, we establish a multi-step procedure for using HMM to select stocks from the global stock market. First, the five important factors of a stock are identified and scored based on its historical performances. Second, HMM is used to predict the regimes of six global economic indicators and find the time periods in the past during which these indicators have a combination of regimes that is similar to those predicted. Then, we analyze the five stock factors of the All country world index (ACWI) in the identified time periods to assign a weighted score for each stock factor and to calculate the composite score of the five factors. Finally, we make a monthly selection of 10% of the global stocks that have the highest composite scores. This strategy is shown to outperform those relying on either ACWI, any single stock factor, or the simple average of the five stock factors. Full article

This study uses the hidden Markov model (HMM) to identify different market regimes in the US stock market and proposes an investment strategy that switches factor investment models depending on the current detected regime. We first backtested an array of different factor models over a roughly 10.5 year period from January 2007 to September 2017, then we trained the HMM on S&P 500 ETF historical data to identify market regimes of that period. By analyzing the relationship between factor model returns and different market regimes, we are able to establish the basis of our regime-switching investing model. We then back-tested our model on out-of-sample historical data from September 2017 to April 2020 and found that it both delivers higher absolute returns and performs better than each of the individual factor models according to traditional portfolio benchmarking metrics. Full article

We implement hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) on Bitcoin/US dollar (BTC/USD) with the aim of market phase detection. We make analogous comparisons to Standard and Poor’s 500 (S and P 500), a benchmark traditional stock index and a protagonist of several studies in finance. Popular labels given to market phases are “bull”, “bear”, “correction”, and “rally”. In the first part, we fit HMMs and HSMMs and look at the evolution of hidden state parameters and state persistence parameters over time to ensure that states are correctly classified in terms of market phase labels. We conclude that our modelling approaches yield positive results in both BTC/USD and the S and P 500, and both are best modelled via four-state HSMMs. However, the two assets show different regime volatility and persistence patterns—BTC/USD has volatile bull and bear states and generally weak state persistence, while the S and P 500 shows lower volatility on the bull states and stronger state persistence. In the second part, we put our models to the test of detecting different market phases by devising investment strategies that aim to be more profitable on unseen data in comparison to a buy-and-hold approach. In both cases, for select investment strategies, four-state HSMMs are also the most profitable and significantly outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. Full article

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI)), industrial production index (INDPRO), stock market index (S&P 500) and market volatility (VIX). At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500. Full article