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Keywords = global precipitation climatology center

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30 pages, 2710 KiB  
Article
Improving Daily CMIP6 Precipitation in Southern Africa Through Bias Correction— Part 2: Representation of Extreme Precipitation
by Amarech Alebie Addisuu, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu and Lenyeletse Vincent Basupi
Climate 2025, 13(5), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13050093 - 2 May 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1392
Abstract
Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events is crucial for managing climate-vulnerable sectors in Southern Africa, as such events directly impact agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness. However, global climate models frequently struggle to capture these phenomena, which limits their practical applicability. This study [...] Read more.
Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events is crucial for managing climate-vulnerable sectors in Southern Africa, as such events directly impact agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness. However, global climate models frequently struggle to capture these phenomena, which limits their practical applicability. This study investigates the effectiveness of three bias correction techniques—scaled distribution mapping (SDM), quantile distribution mapping (QDM), and QDM with a focus on precipitation above and below the 95th percentile (QDM95)—and the daily precipitation outputs from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset was served as a reference. The bias-corrected and native models were evaluated against three observational datasets—the CHIRPS, Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) datasets—for the period of 1982–2014, focusing on the December-January-February season. The ability of the models to generate eight extreme precipitation indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was evaluated. The results show that the native and bias-corrected models captured similar spatial patterns of extreme precipitation, but there were significant changes in the amount of extreme precipitation episodes. While bias correction generally improved the spatial representation of extreme precipitation, its effectiveness varied depending on the reference dataset used, particularly for the maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), extremely wet days (R95p), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). In contrast, the total rain days (RR1), heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and extremely heavy precipitation days (R20mm) showed consistent improvement across all observations. All three bias correction techniques enhanced the accuracy of the models across all extreme indices, as demonstrated by higher pattern correlation coefficients, improved Taylor skill scores (TSSs), reduced root mean square errors, and fewer biases. The ranking of models using the comprehensive rating index (CRI) indicates that no single model consistently outperformed the others across all bias-corrected techniques relative to the CHIRPS, GPCC, and MSWEP datasets. Among the three bias correction methods, SDM and QDM95 outperformed QDM for a variety of criteria. Among the bias-corrected strategies, the best-performing models were EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3, MRI-ESM2, and the multi-model ensemble (MME). These findings demonstrate the efficiency of bias correction in improving the modeling of precipitation extremes in Southern Africa, ultimately boosting climate impact assessments. Full article
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17 pages, 7997 KiB  
Article
Synergistic Effects of Multiple Monsoon Systems on Autumn Precipitation in West China
by Luchi Song, Lingli Fan, Chunqiao Lin, Jiahao Li and Jianjun Xu
Atmosphere 2025, 16(4), 481; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040481 - 20 Apr 2025
Viewed by 353
Abstract
Multiple monsoon systems impact autumn precipitation in West China; however, their synergistic influence is unknown. Here, we employed statistical analysis of Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 3.2 precipitation data, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project [...] Read more.
Multiple monsoon systems impact autumn precipitation in West China; however, their synergistic influence is unknown. Here, we employed statistical analysis of Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 3.2 precipitation data, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project model data, and calculated four monsoon indices to analyze the features of the East Asian Monsoon, South Asian Monsoon, Asia Zonal Circulation, and Tibetan Plateau Monsoon, as well as their synergistic impacts on autumn precipitation in West China. The East Asian Monsoon negatively influences autumn precipitation in West China through closed high pressure over Northeast China. The South Asian Monsoon encloses West China between two areas of closed high pressure; strong high pressure to the north guides the abnormal transport of cold air in Northwest China, whereas strong western Pacific subtropical high pressure guides the transport of warm and wet air to West China, which is conducive to the formation of autumn precipitation in West China. During years of strong Asia Zonal Circulation, West China is controlled by an anomalous sinking airflow, which is not conducive to the occurrence of autumn rain. During strong Tibetan Plateau Monsoon, western and southwestern China are affected by plateau subsidence flow, resulting in less precipitation. Based on the CMIP6 model data, the study found that under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario, the future trends of the four monsoon systems will show significant differences, and the amplitude of autumn and interannual precipitation oscillations in west China will increase. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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21 pages, 2960 KiB  
Article
Comparison of Precipitation Rates from Global Datasets for the Five-Year Period from 2019 to 2023
by Heike Hartmann
Hydrology 2025, 12(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12010004 - 1 Jan 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2021
Abstract
Precipitation is a fundamental component of the hydrologic cycle and is an extremely important variable in meteorological, climatological, and hydrological studies. Reliable climate information including accurate precipitation data is essential for identifying precipitation trends and variability as well as applying hydrologic models for [...] Read more.
Precipitation is a fundamental component of the hydrologic cycle and is an extremely important variable in meteorological, climatological, and hydrological studies. Reliable climate information including accurate precipitation data is essential for identifying precipitation trends and variability as well as applying hydrologic models for purposes such as estimating (surface) water availability and predicting flooding. In this study, I compared precipitation rates from five reanalysis datasets and one analysis dataset—the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA-5), the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 (NCEP/NCAR R1), the NCEP/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE R2), and the NCEP/Climate Forecast System Version 2 (NCEP/CFSv2)—with the merged satellite and rain gauge dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project in Version 2.3 (GPCPv2.3). The latter was taken as a reference due to its global availability including the oceans. Monthly mean precipitation rates of the most recent five-year period from 2019 to 2023 were chosen for this comparison, which included calculating differences, percentage errors, Spearman correlation coefficients, and root mean square errors (RMSEs). ERA-5 showed the highest agreement with the reference dataset with the lowest mean and maximum percentage errors, the highest mean correlation, and the smallest mean RMSE. The highest mean and maximum percentage errors as well as the lowest correlations were observed between NCEP/NCAR R1 and GPCPv2.3. NCEP/DOE R2 showed significantly higher precipitation rates than the reference dataset (only JRA-55 precipitation rates were higher), the second lowest correlations, and the highest mean RMSE. Full article
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32 pages, 95282 KiB  
Article
Inter-Comparison of Multiple Gridded Precipitation Datasets over Different Climates at Global Scale
by Wenyan Qi, Shuhong Wang and Jianlong Chen
Water 2024, 16(11), 1553; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111553 - 28 May 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2190
Abstract
Comprehensive evaluations of global precipitation datasets are imperative for gaining insights into their performance and potential applications. However, the existing evaluations of global precipitation datasets are often constrained by limitations regarding the datasets, specific regions, and hydrological models used for hydrologic predictions. The [...] Read more.
Comprehensive evaluations of global precipitation datasets are imperative for gaining insights into their performance and potential applications. However, the existing evaluations of global precipitation datasets are often constrained by limitations regarding the datasets, specific regions, and hydrological models used for hydrologic predictions. The accuracy and hydrological utility of eight precipitation datasets (including two gauged-based, five reanalysis and one merged precipitation datasets) were evaluated on a daily timescale from 1982 to 2015 in this study by using 2404 rain gauges, 2508 catchments, and four lumped hydrological models under varying climatic conditions worldwide. Specifically, the characteristics of different datasets were first analyzed. The accuracy of precipitation datasets at the site and regional scale was then evaluated with daily observations from 2404 gauges and two high-resolution gridded gauge-interpolated regional datasets. The effectiveness of precipitation datasets in runoff simulation was then assessed by using 2058 catchments around the world in combination with four conceptual hydrological models. The results show that: (1) all precipitation datasets demonstrate proficiency in capturing the interannual variability of the annual mean precipitation, but with magnitudes deviating by up to 200 mm/year among the datasets; (2) the precipitation datasets directly incorporating daily gauge observations outperform the uncorrected precipitation datasets. The Climate Precipitation Center dataset (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset (GPCC) and multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation V2 (MSWEP V2) can be considered the best option for most climate regions regarding the accuracy of precipitation datasets; (3) the performance of hydrological models driven by different datasets is climate dependent and is notably worse in arid regions (with median Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) ranging from 0.39 to 0.65) than in other regions. The MSWEP V2 posted a stable performance with the highest KGE and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values in most climate regions using various hydrological models. Full article
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21 pages, 11408 KiB  
Article
Intercomparisons of Three Gauge-Based Precipitation Datasets over South America during the 1901–2015 Period
by Mary T. Kayano, Wilmar L. Cerón, Rita V. Andreoli, Rodrigo A. F. Souza, Marília H. Shimizu, Leonardo C. M. Jimenez and Itamara P. Souza
Meteorology 2024, 3(2), 191-211; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology3020009 - 28 Apr 2024
Viewed by 1332
Abstract
Gridded precipitation (PRP) data have been largely used in diagnostic studies on the climate variability in several time scales, as well as to validate model results. The three most used gauge-based PRP datasets are from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), University of [...] Read more.
Gridded precipitation (PRP) data have been largely used in diagnostic studies on the climate variability in several time scales, as well as to validate model results. The three most used gauge-based PRP datasets are from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), University of Delaware (UDEL), and Climate Research Unit (CRU). This paper evaluates the performance of these datasets in reproducing spatiotemporal PRP climatological features over the entire South America (SA) for the 1901–2015 period, aiming to identify the differences and similarities among the datasets as well as time intervals and areas with potential uncertainties involved with these datasets. Comparisons of the PRP annual means and variances between the 1901–2015 period and the non-overlapping 30-year subperiods of 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and the 25-year subperiod of 1991–2015 for each dataset show varying means of the annual PRP over SA depending on the subperiod and dataset. Consistent patterns among datasets are found in most of southeastern SA and southeastern Brazil, where they evolved gradually from less to more rainy conditions from 1901–1930 to the 1991–2015 subperiod. All three datasets present limitations and uncertainties in regions with poor coverage of gauge stations, where the differences among datasets are more pronounced. In particular, the GPCC presents reduced PRP variability in an extensive area west of 50° W and north of 20° S during the 1901–1930 subperiod. In monthly time scale, PRP time series in two areas show differences among the datasets for periods before 1941, which are likely due to spurious or missing data: central Bolivia (CBO), and central Brazil (CBR). The GPCC has less monthly variability before 1940 than the other two datasets in these two areas, and UDEL presents reduced monthly variability before 1940 and spurious monthly values from May to September of the years from 1929 to 1941 in CBO. Thus, studies with these three datasets might lead to different results depending on the study domain and period of analysis, in particular for those including years before 1941. The results here might be relevant for future diagnostic and modelling studies on climate variability from interannual to multidecadal time scales. Full article
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22 pages, 2747 KiB  
Article
Utilizing Hybrid Machine Learning Techniques and Gridded Precipitation Data for Advanced Discharge Simulation in Under-Monitored River Basins
by Reza Morovati and Ozgur Kisi
Hydrology 2024, 11(4), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11040048 - 4 Apr 2024
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3176
Abstract
This study addresses the challenge of utilizing incomplete long-term discharge data when using gridded precipitation datasets and data-driven modeling in Iran’s Karkheh basin. The Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN), a rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, was applied, leveraging precipitation data from the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved [...] Read more.
This study addresses the challenge of utilizing incomplete long-term discharge data when using gridded precipitation datasets and data-driven modeling in Iran’s Karkheh basin. The Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN), a rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, was applied, leveraging precipitation data from the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation (APHRODITE), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The MLPNN was trained using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and optimized with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Input data were pre-processed through principal component analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD). This study explored two scenarios: Scenario 1 (S1) used in situ data for calibration and gridded dataset data for testing, while Scenario 2 (S2) involved separate calibrations and tests for each dataset. The findings reveal that APHRODITE outperformed in S1, with all datasets showing improved results in S2. The best results were achieved with hybrid applications of the S2-PCA-NSGA-II for APHRODITE and S2-SVD-NSGA-II for GPCC and CRU. This study concludes that gridded precipitation datasets, when properly calibrated, significantly enhance runoff simulation accuracy, highlighting the importance of bias correction in rainfall-runoff modeling. It is important to emphasize that this modeling approach may not be suitable in situations where a catchment is undergoing significant changes, whether due to development interventions or the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. This limitation highlights the need for dynamic modeling approaches that can adapt to changing catchment conditions. Full article
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20 pages, 3805 KiB  
Article
Statistical Evaluation of the Performance of Gridded Daily Precipitation Products from Reanalysis Data, Satellite Estimates, and Merged Analyses over Global Land
by Weihua Cao, Suping Nie, Lijuan Ma and Liang Zhao
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(18), 4602; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15184602 - 19 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1715
Abstract
The Beijing Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA) has developed a gauge-satellite-model merged gridded daily precipitation dataset with complete global coverage, called BCC Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). Using the unified rain gauge dataset from the CPC (CPC-U) as the independent [...] Read more.
The Beijing Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA) has developed a gauge-satellite-model merged gridded daily precipitation dataset with complete global coverage, called BCC Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). Using the unified rain gauge dataset from the CPC (CPC-U) as the independent benchmark, BMEP and the four most widely used global daily precipitation products, including the Global Precipitation Climatology Project one-degree daily (GPCP-1DD), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Interim ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA-interim), and the 55 year Japanese Reanalysis Project (JRA-55), are evaluated over the global land area from January 2003 to December 2016. The results show that all gridded datasets capture the overall spatiotemporal variation of global daily precipitation. All gridded datasets can basically capture the overall spatiotemporal variation of global daily precipitation. However, CFSR data tend to overestimate precipitation intensity and exhibit a spurious positive trend after 2010, attributed to the transition from CFSR to NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). On the other hand, JRA-55 and ERA-interim data demonstrate higher skill in characterizing spatial and temporal variations, bias, correlation, and RMSE. GPCP-1DD data perform well in terms of bias but show limitations in detecting the interannual variability and RMSE of daily precipitation. Among these evaluated products, BMEP data exhibit the best agreement with CPC-U data in terms of the spatiotemporal variation, pattern, magnitude of variability, and occurrence of rainfall events across different thresholds. These findings indicate that BMEP gridded precipitation data effectively capture the actual characteristics of daily precipitation over global land areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing of Floods: Progress, Challenges and Opportunities)
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27 pages, 5892 KiB  
Article
Implications for Validation of IMERG Satellite Precipitation in a Complex Mountainous Region
by Luhan Li, Xuelong Chen, Yaoming Ma, Wenqing Zhao, Hongchao Zuo, Yajing Liu, Dianbin Cao and Xin Xu
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(18), 4380; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15184380 - 6 Sep 2023
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 2424
Abstract
Satellite-based precipitation retrievals such as the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), provide alternative data in mountainous regions. In this study, we evaluated IMERG in the Yarlung Tsangbo Grand Canyon (YGC) using ground observations. It was found that IMERG underestimated the [...] Read more.
Satellite-based precipitation retrievals such as the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), provide alternative data in mountainous regions. In this study, we evaluated IMERG in the Yarlung Tsangbo Grand Canyon (YGC) using ground observations. It was found that IMERG underestimated the total rainfall primarily due to under-detection of rainfall events, with misses being more prevalent than false alarms. We analyzed the relationships between the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), bias in detection (BID), and Heidke skill score (HSS) and terrain factors. It was found that the POD decreased with elevation, leading to increased underestimation of rainfall events at higher elevations, and the FAR was higher in valley sites. In terms of the hit events, IMERG overestimated the light rainfall events and underestimated the heavy rainfall events and the negative bias in the hit events decreased with elevation. IMERG could capture the early morning peak precipitation in the YGC region but underestimated the amplitude of the diurnal variation. This bias was inherent at the sensor level, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) calibration partially improved the underestimation. However, this improvement was not sufficient for the YGC region. This study fills the gap in IMERG validation in a complex mountainous region and has implications for users and developers. Full article
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25 pages, 10491 KiB  
Article
Historical Trends and Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Based on Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index over the Past 70 Years in China (1951–2020)
by Jiwei Sun, Shuoben Bi, Bashar Bashir, Zhangxi Ge, Kexin Wu, Abdullah Alsalman, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi and Karam Alsafadi
Sustainability 2023, 15(14), 10875; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410875 - 11 Jul 2023
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 1911
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global climate change, the frequency of drought events is increasing, leading to significant impacts on human society and development. Therefore, it is crucial to study the propagation patterns and trends of drought characteristics over a long timescale. The main [...] Read more.
Against the backdrop of global climate change, the frequency of drought events is increasing, leading to significant impacts on human society and development. Therefore, it is crucial to study the propagation patterns and trends of drought characteristics over a long timescale. The main objective of this study is to delineate the dynamics of drought characteristics by examining their propagation patterns in China from 1951 to 2020. In this study, precipitation data from meteorological stations across mainland China were used. A comprehensive dataset consisting of 700 stations over the past 70 years was collected and analyzed. To ensure data accuracy, the GPCC (the Global Precipitation Climatology Center) database was employed for data correction and gap-filling. Long-term drought evolution was assessed using both the SPI-12 (standardized precipitation index) and SPEI-12 (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) to detect drought characteristics. Two Moran indices were applied to identify propagation patterns, and the MK (the Mann–Kendall) analysis method, along with the Theil–Sen slope estimator, was utilized to track historical trends of these indices. The findings of this study reveal the following key results: (i) Based on the SPI-12, the main areas of China that are prone to drought are mostly concentrated around the Hu Huanyong Line, indicating a tendency towards drying based on the decadal change analysis. (ii) The distribution of drought-prone areas in China, as indicated by the SPEI-12, is extensive and widely distributed, with a correlation to urbanization and population density. These drought-prone areas are gradually expanding. (iii) Between 2010 and 2011, China experienced the most severe drought event in nearly 70 years, affecting nearly 50% of the country’s area with a high degree of severity. This event may be attributed to atmospheric circulation variability, exacerbated by the impact of urbanization on precipitation and drought. (iv) The frequency of drought occurrence in China gradually decreases from south to north, with the northeast and northern regions being less affected. However, areas with less frequent droughts experience longer and more severe drought durations. In conclusion, this study provides valuable insights into the characteristics and propagation patterns of drought in China, offering essential information for the development of effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought events. Full article
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15 pages, 11885 KiB  
Article
Regional Characteristics of Summer Precipitation Anomalies in the Northeastern Maritime Continent
by Qi Xu, Zhaoyong Guan, Dachao Jin, Wei Chen and Jing Zhu
Atmosphere 2023, 14(7), 1059; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071059 - 22 Jun 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1497
Abstract
Based on the monthly mean reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) (1979–2020), the regional characteristics of precipitation in the warm pool side of the Maritime Continent (MC) and the [...] Read more.
Based on the monthly mean reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) (1979–2020), the regional characteristics of precipitation in the warm pool side of the Maritime Continent (MC) and the relationships between different precipitation patterns and atmospheric circulations are studied. The results show that there are significant correlations as well as differences between the precipitation in the east of the Philippines (area A) and that in the Pacific Ocean near the Northern Mariana Islands (area B). Precipitation in area A is closely related to the eastern Pacific ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and EAP/PJ (East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan) teleconnection pattern, while precipitation in area B is linked to the Indian Ocean basin-wide and the South China Sea summer monsoon. When the precipitation anomaly in area A is positive, the East Asian summer monsoon is weak. A cyclone appears to the northwest of area A at 850 hPa with convergence airflow. After filtering out the effects of precipitation in area B, the cyclone retreats to the west, and an anticyclone appears to the southeast of area A. When the precipitation is above normal in area B, the circulation and water vapor transportation are similar to that in area A but more to the east. The updraft and downdrafts to both north and south sides of area B form two closed meridional vertical circulations. When the influence of area A is moved out, the circulation center in the warm pool area moves eastward. This research contributes to a better understanding of the regional characteristics of the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon. Full article
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29 pages, 13496 KiB  
Article
Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Projections for Climate Change and Assessments of Impact on Malaria in Senegal under the VECTRI Model
by Papa Fall, Ibrahima Diouf, Abdoulaye Deme, Semou Diouf, Doudou Sene, Benjamin Sultan, Adjoua Moïse Famien and Serge Janicot
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2023, 8(6), 310; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8060310 - 6 Jun 2023
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3694
Abstract
On the climate-health issue, studies have already attempted to understand the influence of climate change on the transmission of malaria. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, or heat waves can alter the course and distribution of malaria. This study aims to understand [...] Read more.
On the climate-health issue, studies have already attempted to understand the influence of climate change on the transmission of malaria. Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, or heat waves can alter the course and distribution of malaria. This study aims to understand the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission using, for the first time in Senegal, the ICTP’s community-based vector-borne disease model, TRIeste (VECTRI). This biological model is a dynamic mathematical model for the study of malaria transmission that considers the impact of climate and population variability. A new approach for VECTRI input parameters was also used. A bias correction technique, the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method, was applied to climate simulations to remove systematic biases in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) that could alter impact predictions. Beforehand, we use reference data for validation such as CPC global unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation (CPC for Climate Prediction Center), ERA5-land reanalysis, Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and African Rainfall Climatology 2.0 (ARC2). The results were analyzed for two CMIP5 scenarios for the different time periods: assessment: 1983–2005; near future: 2006–2028; medium term: 2030–2052; and far future: 2077–2099). The validation results show that the models reproduce the annual cycle well. Except for the IPSL-CM5B model, which gives a peak in August, all the other models (ACCESS1–3, CanESM2, CSIRO, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B) agree with the validation data on a maximum peak in September with a period of strong transmission in August–October. With spatial variation, the CMIP5 model simulations show more of a difference in the number of malaria cases between the south and the north. Malaria transmission is much higher in the south than in the north. However, the results predicted by the models on the occurrence of malaria by 2100 show differences between the RCP8.5 scenario, considered a high emission scenario, and the RCP4.5 scenario, considered an intermediate mitigation scenario. The CanESM2, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, inmcm4, and IPSL-CM5B models predict decreases with the RCP4.5 scenario. However, ACCESS1–3, CSIRO, NRCM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, and GFDL-ESM2M predict increases in malaria under all scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The projected decrease in malaria in the future with these models is much more visible in the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of this study are of paramount importance in the climate-health field. These results will assist in decision-making and will allow for the establishment of preventive surveillance systems for local climate-sensitive diseases, including malaria, in the targeted regions of Senegal. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Infectious Diseases)
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26 pages, 19193 KiB  
Article
Evaluating CMIP6 Historical Mean Precipitation over Africa and the Arabian Peninsula against Satellite-Based Observation
by Isaac Kwesi Nooni, Faustin Katchele Ogou, Abdoul Aziz Saidou Chaibou, Francis Mawuli Nakoty, Gnim Tchalim Gnitou and Jiao Lu
Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 607; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030607 - 22 Mar 2023
Cited by 20 | Viewed by 5142
Abstract
This study evaluated the historical precipitation simulations of 49 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology, linear trends, and their spatial correlation with global SST across Africa and the Arabian [...] Read more.
This study evaluated the historical precipitation simulations of 49 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology, linear trends, and their spatial correlation with global SST across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during the period of 1980–2014, using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCP) data as a reference. Taylor’s diagram was used to quantify the strengths and weaknesses of the models in simulating precipitation. The CMIP6 multi-mean ensemble (MME) and the majority of the GCMs replicated the dominant features of the spatial and temporal variations reasonably well. The CMIP6 MME outperformed the majority of the individual models. The spatial variation of the CMIP6 MME closely matched the observation. The results showed that at annual and seasonal scales, the GPCP and CMIP6 MME reproduced a coherent spatial pattern in terms of the magnitude of precipitation. The humid region received >300 mm and the arid region received <50 mm across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The models from the same modeling centers replicated the precipitation levels across different seasons and regions. The CMIP6 MME and the majority of the individual models overestimate (underestimate) in humid (arid and semi-arid)-climate zones. The annual and pre-monsoon seasons (i.e., DJFMA) were better replicated in the CMIP6 GCMs than in the monsoon-precipitation model (MJJASON). The CMIP6 MME (GPCP) showed stronger wetting (drying) trends in the northern hemisphere. In contrast, a strong drying trend in the CMIP6 MME and a weak wetting trend in the GPCP were shown in the Southern Hemisphere. The CMIP6 MME captures the spatial pattern of linear trends better than individual models across different climate zones and regions. The relationship between precipitation and sea-surface temperature (SST) exhibited a high spatial correlation (−0.80 and 0.80) with large variability across different regions and climate zones. The GPCP (CMIP6 MME) exhibited a heterogenous (homogeneous) spatial pattern, with higher correlation coefficients recorded in the CMIP6 MME than in the GPCP in all cases. Individual models from the same modeling centers showed spatial homogeneity in correlation values. The differences exhibited by the individual GCMs highlight the significance of each model’s unique dynamics and physics; however, model selection should be considered for specific applications. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Africa)
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16 pages, 6401 KiB  
Article
Mass Variations in Terrestrial Water Storage over the Nile River Basin and Mega Aquifer System as Deduced from GRACE-FO Level-2 Products and Precipitation Patterns from GPCP Data
by Basem Elsaka, Karem Abdelmohsen, Fahad Alshehri, Ahmed Zaki and Mohamed El-Ashquer
Water 2022, 14(23), 3920; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233920 - 1 Dec 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3256
Abstract
Changes in the terrestrial total water storage (TWS) have been estimated at both global and river basin scales from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and are still being detected from its GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission. In this contribution, the sixth [...] Read more.
Changes in the terrestrial total water storage (TWS) have been estimated at both global and river basin scales from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and are still being detected from its GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission. In this contribution, the sixth release of GRACE-FO (RL06) level-2 products applying DDK5 (decorrelation filter) were used to detect water mass variations for the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Africa and the Mega Aquifer System (MAS) in Asia. The following approach was implemented to detect the mass variation over the NRB and MAS: (1) TWS mass (June 2018–June 2021) was estimated by converting the spherical harmonic coefficients from the decorrelation filter DDK 5 of the GRACE-FO Level-2 RL06 products into equivalent water heights, where the TWS had been re-produced after removing the mean temporal signal (2) Precipitation data from Global Precipitation Climatology Project was used to investigate the pattern of change over the study area. Our findings include: (1) during the GRACE-FO period, the mass variations extracted from the RL06-DDK5 solutions from the three official centers—CSR, JPL, and GFZ—were found to be consistent with each other, (2) The NRB showed substantial temporal TWS variations, given a basin average of about 6 cm in 2019 and about 12 cm in 2020 between September and November and a lower basin average of about −9 cm in 2019 and −6 cm in 2020 in the wet seasons between March and May, while mass variations for the MAS had a relatively weaker temporal TWS magnitude, (3) the observed seasonal signal over the NRB was attributed to the high intensity of the precipitation events over the NRB (AAP: 1000–1800 mm yr−1), whereas the lack of the seasonal TWS signal over the MAS was due to the low intensity of the precipitation events over the MAS (AAP:180–500 mm yr−1). Full article
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22 pages, 7361 KiB  
Article
Cross-Examining Precipitation Products by Rain Gauge, Remote Sensing, and WRF Simulations over a South American Region across the Pacific Coast and Andes
by Mengye Chen, Yongjie Huang, Zhi Li, Albert Johan Mamani Larico, Ming Xue, Yang Hong, Xiao-Ming Hu, Hector Mayol Novoa, Elinor Martin, Renee McPherson, Jiaqi Zhang, Shang Gao, Yixin Wen, Andres Vitaliano Perez and Isaac Yanqui Morales
Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1666; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101666 - 12 Oct 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3079
Abstract
Precipitation estimate is important for earth science studies and applications, and it is one of the most difficult meteorological quantities to estimate accurately. For regions such as Peru, reliable gridded precipitation products are lacking due to complex terrains and large portions of remote [...] Read more.
Precipitation estimate is important for earth science studies and applications, and it is one of the most difficult meteorological quantities to estimate accurately. For regions such as Peru, reliable gridded precipitation products are lacking due to complex terrains and large portions of remote lands that limit the accuracy of satellite precipitation estimation and in situ measurement density. This study evaluates and cross-examines two high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products, a global rain-gauge interpolated precipitation product, and a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model that simulated precipitation for a ten-year period from 2010 to 2019 in the Peruvian Andes region across the Pacific coast, Andes, and in the Amazon. The precipitation estimates examined in this study are the Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), Global Precipitation Climatology Center product (GPCC), and a 3 km grid spacing WRF-based regional climate model (RCM) simulation. The evaluation and cross-examination were performed at sub-daily (6 h), daily, and monthly time scales, and at various spatial resolutions. The results show that the WRF simulation performs as well as, if not better than, GPM IMERG in the low precipitation and dry regions but becomes inaccurate in wet regions. GPM IMERG is more suitable for higher precipitation and wet regions, and MSWEP shows a systematic overestimation over the study area. It is therefore important to choose the most suitable precipitation product based on research needs and climate condition of the study for the challenging Peruvian Andes region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
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18 pages, 6907 KiB  
Article
Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Satellite Estimates and Gauge-Based Rainfall Products in Northern Part of Egypt
by Mahmoud Roushdi
Climate 2022, 10(9), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090134 - 19 Sep 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3291
Abstract
Egypt’s climate is generally dry all over the country except for the Northern Mediterranean Coast. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) uses few meteorological stations to monitor weather events in the entire country within the area of one million square kilometers, which makes it [...] Read more.
Egypt’s climate is generally dry all over the country except for the Northern Mediterranean Coast. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) uses few meteorological stations to monitor weather events in the entire country within the area of one million square kilometers, which makes it scarce with respect to spatial distribution. The EMA data are relatively expensive to obtain. Open access rainfall products (RP) are commonly used to monitor rainfall as good alternatives, especially for data-scarce countries such as Egypt. This paper aims to evaluate the performance of 12 open access rainfall products for 8 locations in the northern part of Egypt, in order to map the rainfall spatial distribution over the northern part of Egypt based on the best RP. The evaluation process is conducted for the period 2000–2018 for seven locations (Marsa-Matrouh, Abu-Qeir, Rasheed, Port-Said, Tanta, Mansoura, and Cairo-Airport), while it is conducted for the period 1996–2008 for the Damanhour location. The selected open access rainfall products are compared with the ground stations data using annual and monthly timescales. The point-to-pixel approach is applied using four statistical indices (Pearson correlation coefficient (r), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and bias ratio (Pbias)). Overall, the results indicate that both the African Rainfall Estimation Algorithm (RFE) product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) product could be the best rainfall data sources for the Marsa-Matrouh location, with relatively higher r (0.99–0.93 for RFE and 0.99–0.89 for CPC) and NSE (0.98–0.79 for RFE and 0.98–0.75 for CPC), in addition to lower RMSE (0.94–7.78 for RFE and 0.92–12.01 for CPC) and Pbias (0.01–11.95% for RFE and −2.22–−12.15% for CPC) for annual and monthly timescales. In addition, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and CPC give the best rainfall products for the Abu-Qier and Port-Said locations. GPCC is more suitable for the Rasheed location. The most appropriate rainfall product for the Tanta location is CHIRPS. The current research confirms the benefits of using rainfall products after conducting the recommended performance assessment for each location. Full article
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