Search Results (52)

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Most BO methods rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogates, which perform well in continuous domains but encounter difficulties when decision variables include categorical or mixed discrete–continuous components. In particular, GP-based approaches typically require ad hoc numerical encodings of categorical variables that may fail to capture the structure of discrete decision spaces. In this work, we propose MNL-BO (Multinomial Logit Bayesian Optimization), a preference-based Bayesian optimization framework that replaces the GP surrogate with a multinomial logit (MNL) model trained from pairwise preference comparisons. The resulting surrogate provides a natural and interpretable representation of categorical alternatives while allowing continuous, discrete, and categorical variables to be handled within a unified optimization framework. The predictive utility estimates and uncertainty indicators generated by the MNL model are employed to formulate acquisition functions that reconcile exploration with exploitation. The proposed methodology is evaluated on three progressively complex optimization challenges: a purely categorical benchmark, a combinatorial Traveling Salesman problem, and a constrained mixed-variable engineering design problem concerning material selection in pressure vessel optimization. Multi-run tests provide consistent advantages over random search and exhibit stable convergence behavior across diverse random initializations. In addition to heuristic baselines such as local search and classical metaheuristics, we also compare against tree-based Bayesian optimization baselines inspired by the Sequential Model-based Algorithm Configuration (SMAC) framework. The results indicate that the proposed MNL-BO method achieves competitive performance under comparable evaluation budgets while providing an interpretable probabilistic surrogate for categorical decision spaces. These findings suggest that preference-based surrogate modeling provides a practical and flexible alternative for Bayesian optimization in categorical and mixed-variable optimization problems. Full article

Globally, the demand for beef and beef-related products has significantly escalated over the past decade. This study aimed to evaluate the factors influencing the market participation of smallholder beef cattle farmers in uMgungundlovu, South Africa. The study employed a cross-sectional research design, which followed a mixed-methods approach to collect data. Survey data were collected from smallholder cattle farmers from the uMgungundlovu District in KwaZulu-Natal using a semi-structured questionnaire. Purposive sampling was employed to select four local municipalities from the uMgungundlovu District out of a total of seven, whereas a simple random sampling was used to recruit farmers. The sampling was conducted using Microsoft Excel, whereby each farmer was allocated a random number, and then the required sample was generated from those numbers. To determine factors that influence farmers’ market choice, a multinomial logit regression model was used. A significant proportion of the farmers (43.1%) were aged between 51 and 70, followed by 35.5% aged 31 to 50. Just under half (48.2%) of farmers had received formal training in livestock production. This finding (p < 0.001) reinforces the central role of education in income determination. Better-educated individuals tend to earn more and diversify their income sources. This study underpinned that the livestock farming population is dominated by primarily middle-aged, male, semi-educated, and resource-poor individuals, and they rely significantly on traditional farming methods and government assistance. The multinomial logit regression revealed that farmers’ market choices are influenced by education level, extension service quality, access to quality bulls, and breeding knowledge significantly influenced farmers’ market choices. Specifically, secondary and tertiary education reduced the likelihood of participating in auction markets relative to informal markets, while limited breeding knowledge and poor extension services further constrained participation in formal channels. Full article

Coastal ecological regulation plays a crucial role in coordinating the human–environment system and promotes sustainable development, yet it often imposes constraints on the livelihoods of local farmers. Drawing on questionnaire survey data from Chinese coastal farmers, this study quantifies farmers’ opportunity loss through the expectation function and entropy method. Subsequently, a Multinomial Logit model and Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM) are employed to systematically investigate the mechanisms through which ecological regulation-induced opportunity loss influences coastal farmers’ livelihood transition between 2013 and 2023. The findings reveal that greater opportunity loss significantly inhibits the fishing households’ livelihood transition, exhibiting a ‘livelihood stickiness’ effect. This inhibitory effect is partially mediated by a narrowing of farmers’ psychological distance from environmental issues. Specifically, social distance, reflecting community attachment and identity, plays a dominant mediating role. Furthermore, regulation intensity significantly amplifies this inhibitory effect. Notably, in the absence of substantive compensation or alternative livelihood support, greater policy publicity further reinforces this inhibitory impact. These findings underscore the need for policy interventions that provide compensation and alternative livelihood support commensurate with farmers’ opportunity loss. Enhancing community participation is also crucial to better reconcile coastal conservation objectives with the sustainable livelihoods of local communities. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of the effect of route set size on stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) traffic assignment, focusing on both logit-based (Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Path Size Logit (PSL)) and weibit-based models (Multinomial Weibit (MNW) and Path Size Weibit (PSW)). The primary objective is to investigate the influence of route set size on traffic patterns and determine the minimum requisite number of routes for flow stabilization within the SUE framework. The analysis, conducted on the Winnipeg network using a customized Self-Regulated Averaging (SRA) scheme, yields three key findings. First, all models successfully converged, but the weibit-based models (MNW and PSW) converged faster than the logit-based models. Second, an analysis of perceived total travel time demonstrated that the majority of efficiency gains from route inclusion diminish after a threshold of approximately maximum 30 routes to 40 routes per O-D pair, indicating this number is sufficient for achieving stable SUE results in both model families. Third, the weibit-based model was found to be more sensitive to route overlap effects, continuing to adjust flow patterns up to maximum 45 routes per O-D pair, and exhibiting a greater tendency to allocate flow to less overlapping outer roads. This highlights the superior capability of the weibit formulation, which accounts for heterogeneous perception variance, to achieve a more behaviorally realistic equilibrium compared to the logit models. Full article

Hypertension is a major chronic condition affecting older adults in the United States. The condition imposes clinical and economic burdens. Self-efficacy, or confidence in managing health, is crucial for effective self-management of hypertension. This study explored the relationships between socio-demographics, health status, and confidence in following provider recommendations for controlling hypertension among Medicare beneficiaries. The 2021 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey was analyzed, including responses from 5838 beneficiaries aged ≥65 years with reported hypertension. A three-level categorical dependent variable ((1) very confident/confident, (2) somewhat confident, and (3) not confident (reference group)) based on provider recommendations for lifestyle changes for hypertension control was created. A survey-weighted multinomial logit model examined associations between socio-demographics and self-reported health status and the dependent variable. Among respondents, 70.8%, 21.4%, and 7.8%, respectively, were very confident/confident, somewhat confident, and not confident in following provider recommendations for lifestyle changes to control hypertension. Beneficiaries with obesity, fair/poor general health, and limitations in basic activities of daily living or instrumental activities of daily living were less likely to report being very confident/confident. The findings of this cross-sectional study highlighted the potential need for targeted support (e.g., tailored health coaching, peer mentoring) of lifestyle changes for at-risk older adults to manage hypertension. Full article

Predicting and analyzing travel mode choices and purposes are significant to improve urban travel mobility and transportation planning. Previous research has ignored the interconnection between travel mode choices and purposes and thus overlooked their potential contributions to predictions. Using individual travel chain data collected in South Korea, this study proposes a Multi-Task Learning Deep Neural Network (MTLDNN) framework, integrating RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) to achieve a joint prediction of travel mode choices and purposes. The MTLDNN is constructed to share a common hidden layer that extracts general features from the input data, while task-specific output layers are dedicated to predicting travel modes and purposes separately. This structure allows for efficient learning of shared representations while maintaining the capacity to model task-specific relationships. RFM is then integrated to optimize the extraction of users’ behavioral features, which helps in better understanding the temporal and financial patterns of users’ travel activities. The results show that the MTLDNN demonstrates consistent input variable replacement modes and selection probabilities in generating behavioral replacement patterns. Compared to the multinomial logit model (MNL), the MTLDNN achieves lower cross-entropy loss and higher prediction accuracy. The proposed framework could enhance transportation planning, efficiency, and user satisfaction by enabling more accurate predictions. Full article

The banking sector is experiencing significant disruption due to technological advancements and evolving customer demand. This study analysed over 2000 banking and/or neobanking users across 28 countries. A multinomial logit model was applied to examine three user characteristics groups: demographics, banking habits, and neobanking habits. Several interesting effects were found. Higher-educated and single users are more likely to use neobanks, while self-employed and lower-income users are less likely. Neobank users prioritize affordability, availability, and speed, while traditional bank users prioritize stability and personal interaction. We have developed a tool to identify clients likely to leave traditional banks, fully or partially, with high reliability. Even partial outflows mean banks lose important services generating significant revenue to competitors. A crucial factor here is the single banking market, which eases switching between banks. Neobanks further reduce barriers, enhancing customer mobility. Moreover, opening an account with a neobank takes only minutes. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for banks and neobanks, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of users’ characteristics that reflects current customer demand and enables new strategies to better address them. Full article

Despite steady economic and social development in Bangladesh, women are in an underprivileged situation in many ways. This study explores the association between the use of information and communication technology (ICT) and women’s empowerment in Bangladesh. This study employs ordinary least squares regression, the ordered logit model, and the multinomial logit model, using Financial Inclusion Insights (2017) Survey data, to investigate the relationship between mobile phone use and women’s empowerment. The study’s main result indicates that mobile phone use facilitates women’s empowerment in general, but the impact needs to be considered for different groups of women. Housewives who are restricted within the household are impacted less than non-housewives by mobile phone use, contrary to our expectations. Also heads of households and spouses of heads of households, who are in very different positions in a patriarchal family structure, are similarly impacted by mobile phone use. This result implies that ICT only affects the empowerment of women who are not restricted to the household, and we conclude that ICT access alone is not enough to ensure women’s awareness about their rights. Full article

The Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is largely rural, with agriculture as the main livelihood for many households. However, the province has a semi-arid climate and reliance on rain-fed agriculture, which makes the region highly vulnerable to climate-related risks, particularly droughts. Smallholder farmers, who play a crucial role in food production and local economies, face significant challenges due to limited access to resources like irrigation, modern technology, and financial support, exacerbating their vulnerability to climate variability. These droughts cause severe losses in agricultural productivity, threatening food security, increasing poverty, and driving rural migration. Despite the potential benefits of adaptation strategies, many farmers lack the tools and knowledge to effectively cope with the increasing frequency and severity of droughts. This study examines how smallholder farmers in South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province perceive, experience, and cope with drought risk and its food and nutrition security implications. Using structured questionnaires, the authors collected data from 160 smallholder farmers and employed statistical analysis techniques, including a multinomial logit model. The study found that smallholder farmers understand drought risk but continue to face high vulnerability to adverse effects such as water scarcity, crop failure, increased disease incidence, and rising temperatures. Socioeconomic and institutional factors significantly influenced the adaptation strategies chosen by smallholder farmers. This study suggests that a combination of localized and modern adaptation approaches, supported by various institutional, policy, and technological interventions, is essential to enhance the resilience of these farmers. Specifically, localized strategies such as using traditional water management systems and crop diversification were effective in addressing region-specific climate challenges. At the same time, modern approaches like climate-resilient crop varieties and early-warning systems provided broader, more scalable solutions. Institutional support measures, such as access to climate information and extension services, policy interventions promoting sustainable practices, and technological advancements in irrigation and seed technologies, were key factors in improving adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability. There is an urgent need to provide comprehensive support and empower farmers to adapt effectively, protect their livelihoods, and contribute to broader food security and poverty reduction efforts. This study highlights the importance of understanding and addressing the perceptions and experiences of smallholder farmers facing drought risk to ensure sustainable food production, income generation, and poverty alleviation. Full article

In-home activities are inevitably important parts of individuals’ daily schedules, as people spend more time working and doing various other activities (e.g., online shopping or banking) at home. However, conventional activity-based travel demand models (ABMs) only consider travel and travel-related out-of-home activities, ignoring the interaction between in-home and out-of-home activities. To fill in this gap and increase the understanding of what people do at home and how in-home and out-of-home activities affect each other, a new method is proposed in this study. The approach predicts the types and durations of in-home activities of daily schedules generated by ABMs. In model building, statistical methods such as multinomial logit, log-linear regression, and activity sequential information are utilized, while in calibration, the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA) method is employed. The proposed method was tested using training data and by applying the approach to the schedules of 6.3 million people in the Flemish region of Belgium generated by a representative ABM. Based on the statistical methods, the mean absolute errors were 0.36 and 0.21 for predicting the number and sum of the durations of in-home activities (over all types) per schedule, respectively. The prediction obtained a 10% and 8% improvement using sequential information. After calibration, an additional 60% and 68% were gained regarding activity participation rates and time spent per day. The experimental results demonstrate the potential and practical ability of the proposed method for the incorporation of in-home activities in activity–travel schedules, contributing towards the extension of ABMs to a wide range of applications that are associated with individuals’ in-home activities (e.g., the appropriate evaluation of energy consumption and carbon emission estimation as well as sustainable policy designs for telecommuting). Full article

Despite the availability of electronic navigators and automated vehicles, static wayfinding instructions remain widely used due to their resistance to signal disturbances, as well as their economic and environmental advantages over electronic signs. To investigate the impact of static wayfinding on the network cost and flow distribution, this paper presents an efficient method for updating the incident matrix and extends the stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) framework to incorporate static wayfinding instructions by using the generalized nested logit (GNL) choice model to represent user behavior. The SUE principle relaxes the assumption that users possess perfect knowledge of traffic conditions and always choose the optimal link to minimize their costs. The GNL model improves generalization performance of the cross-nested logit (CNL) model while solving the overlap problem of the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The disaggregate simplicial decomposition (DSD) algorithm is applied to solve proposed user equilibrium by iteratively finding decent directions through an auxiliary solution and determining step size using different methods. The results indicate that the self-regulated averaging (SRA) method can solve the proposed model efficiently. Additionally, increasing travel time cost on guided links and even outer links can be potential influences caused by static wayfinding instructions. The study results can assist decision-makers in quantitatively assessing the value of placing static wayfinding instructions at certain locations and choosing effective layout information. Full article

Background: Community design features, such as sidewalks and street crossings, present significant challenges for individuals with disabilities, hindering their physical performance and social integration. However, limited research has been conducted on the application of Universal Design (UD) to address these challenges, particularly concerning specific demographic groups and population cohorts. Understanding the influence of environmental features on physical performance is crucial for developing inclusive solutions like UD, which can enhance usability and social integration across diverse populations. Objective: This study aims to bridge this gap by investigating the complex relationships between environmental barriers, health conditions, and routine activity performance. An index was developed to evaluate users’ UD performance based on functional capacity, providing scientifically rigorous and objectively measured evidence of UD effectiveness in creating inclusive built environments. Method: Using data from the Problematic Activities Survey (PAS) conducted in the U.S., Canada, and Australia and targeting individuals with and without functional limitations, multinomial logit models were employed to estimate the probabilities of encountering performance problems. This analysis led to the development of the Problematic Performance Value (PPV) score. Results: The results demonstrated significant disparities in PPVs across various health conditions, particularly concerning curb ramps. Individuals facing mobility issues in their legs/feet, arms/hands, or back/neck encounter more pronounced challenges, especially when curb ramps lack proper design elements. Similarly, individuals with vision impairments face heightened difficulties with traffic signals, particularly due to issues with audible signal systems. These findings underscore the importance of addressing micro-level environmental challenges to accommodate individuals with varying functional capacities effectively. Conclusions: By providing insights into the most problematic daily activities encountered by diverse populations, the PPV score serves as a valuable indicator for guiding environmental design improvements and promoting equitable space usage. This can be used to guide improved UD solutions and decide areas of concentration by providing generalized information on specific environmental features that contribute to user performance. Full article

This study aims to provide valuable insights into consumer preferences for delivery services in online shopping in Chile. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the evolution of delivery and logistics services, leading to increased competition among online stores. Chile, with its highly digitally enabled population and a competitive landscape of online retailers, serves as an ideal reference case for Latin America. By analyzing key delivery attributes such as delivery time, order arrival time range, compensation policies for delivery delays, and delivery prices, we offer valuable insights into consumer behavior. These insights will, in turn, inform the formulation of effective strategies within the online shopping industry. We examine the following aspects: (a) The willingness of consumers to pay for the service attributes; (b) The relative importance assigned to these attributes by consumers; and (c) The relationship between consumer preferences and socioeconomic characteristics. Using Multinomial Logit Models and a database from a Discrete Choice Experiment, we have discovered that the most significant attributes of delivery service are the time until product arrival and the existence of compensation in case of delivery delays. Additionally, we found that consumers are willing to pay more for the same delivery service if the product is large, as large products generally have higher prices. Furthermore, we observed that delivery time preferences vary by gender and for small products, and price sensitivity varies according to educational level, household size, and socioeconomic status. To the best of our knowledge, no previous research of this kind has been conducted for Chile. Full article

This study investigated the interplay between exit selection models and local pedestrian movement patterns within floor field frameworks. Specifically, this investigation analysed the performance of a multinomial logit exit choice model, incorporating both expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory frameworks when coupled with three distinct local-level pedestrian movement models (FF-Von Neumann, FF-Moore, and NSFF). The expected utility theory framework considers the deterministic component as a linear relationship, while the cumulative prospect theory framework further considers the decision-maker’s risky attitudes by transforming objective terms into subjective terms using a power value function. The core objective was to comprehend how local movement dynamics, as represented by the floor field models, influence decision-making during exit selection. Comparative analyses revealed intriguing variations between the three local models, despite their shared expected utility theory-based exit choice framework. These discrepancies stemmed from the diverse pedestrian trajectory behaviours generated by each model. Consequently, these local dynamics impacted the decision-maker’s assessment of critical factors, such as the number of evacuees close to the decision-maker ($NCDM$) and the number of evacuees close to an exit ($NCE$), which the exit choice model incorporates. These assessments, in turn, significantly affected higher-level decision-making. The integration of the three models with the multinomial logit exit choice model, using either cumulative prospect theory and expected utility theory frameworks, further strengthened the observed bilateral relationship. While the specific nature of this relationship varied depending on the chosen framework and its implementation details, these consistent findings demonstrate the robustness of the results. This reinforced the influence of local-level pedestrian dynamics on higher-level exit selection, highlighting the importance of accurate crowd dynamics modelling, especially when advanced exit choice models consider local movement factors. Full article

In order to provide urban freight vehicles with navigation routes that better align with their travel preferences, it is necessary to analyze the patterns and characteristics of their route choices. This paper focuses on freight vehicles traveling within the city and examines their route selection behavior. Through an analysis of the GPS data collected from freight truck journeys in Changchun, China, this study outlines the characteristics of freight vehicle travel within the city. Variables that may influence their route selection behavior are defined as feature factors. The study employs the DBSCAN algorithm to identify the hotspots in origin–destination pairs for freight truck travel in Changchun. It also utilizes Breadth First Search Link Elimination to generate a set of route choices and constructs route selection behavior models based on Multinomial Logit and Path Size Logit. Based on the research findings, during navigation within the city road network, these vehicles exhibit a preference for side roads, a tendency to favor right turns at intersections, and a propensity to choose routes with lower duplication compared to alternative options. The study’s conclusions offer theoretical support for guiding urban freight vehicle routes and planning and managing freight traffic within the city. Full article