Search Results (96)

In recent years, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have increased at the fastest rates ever recorded. This is a trend that contradicts global efforts to stabilise greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and prevent long-term climate change. Over 90% of global transport relies on oil-based fuels. The continued use of diesel and petrol raises concerns related to oil costs, supply security, GHG emissions, and the release of air pollutants and volatile organic compounds. This study explored electric vehicle (EV) charging networks by assessing environmental impacts through GHG and petroleum savings, developing dynamic pricing strategies, and forecasting infrastructure needs. A substantial dataset of over 259,000 EV charging records from Palo Alto, California, was statistically analysed. Machine learning models were applied to generate insights that support sustainable and economically viable electric transport planning for policymakers, urban planners, and other stakeholders. Findings indicate that GHG and gasoline savings are directly proportional to energy consumed, with conversion rates of 0.42 kg CO₂ and 0.125 gallons per kilowatt-hour (kWh), respectively. Additionally, dynamic pricing strategies such as a 20% discount on underutilised days and a 15% surcharge during peak hours are proposed to optimise charging behaviour and improve station efficiency. Full article

U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are often volatile, driven by geopolitical risks and disruptions in the fossil fuel market. Forest biomass fuels, particularly renewable diesel derived from logging residues, offer a low-carbon alternative with the potential to stabilize fuel prices. This study evaluates whether biomass can moderate fuel price volatility using ANOVA, Tukey post hoc tests, and quadratic regression based on monthly data for biomass production, inventories, and retail fuel prices. Findings reveal the existence of a significant nonlinear relationship between forest biomass inventory levels and fossil fuel prices. Average gasoline prices peaked in the medium-inventory group (M = 0.837) and dropped in the high-inventory group (M = 0.684). Diesel prices followed a similar pattern, with the highest values in the medium-inventory group (M = 0.963) and the lowest in the high-inventory group (M = 0.759). One-way ANOVA results were statistically significant for both gasoline (F(2, 99) = 7.39, p = 0.001) and diesel (F(2, 99) = 7.22, p = 0.0012). Tukey tests confirmed that diesel prices fell significantly from both medium to high and low to high-inventory levels. This result remains robust when using the biomass index level and the biomass production level. These results indicate a threshold effect: only at higher biomass inventories do fossil fuel prices decline, suggesting a potential for substitution. However, current policies inadequately support biomass integration, highlighting the need for targeted reforms. Full article

High-frequency fluctuations in the international crude oil market have led to multilevel characteristics in China’s domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. To address the poor fitting performance of single deep learning models on oil price data, which hampers accurate gasoline price prediction, this paper proposes a gasoline price prediction method based on a combined xLSTM–XGBoost model. Using gasoline price data from June 2000 to November 2024 in Sichuan Province as a sample, the data are decomposed via STL decomposition to extract trend, residual, and seasonal components. The xLSTM model is then employed to predict the trend and seasonal components, while XGBoost predicts the residual component. Finally, the predictions from both models are combined to produce the final forecast. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed xLSTM–XGBoost model reduces the MAE by 14.8% compared to the second-best sLSTM–XGBoost model and by 83% compared to the traditional LSTM model, significantly enhancing prediction accuracy. Full article

Based on the theoretical framework of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV), this paper combines the Dynamic Generalized Correlation (DGC) model with the t-distribution, establishes the DGC-t-MSV model, and employs the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on the Bayesian principle for efficient estimation to investigate the price volatility spillover effects in China’s energy supply chains. The results of this study indicate the following: (1) The upstream crude oil spot price has a positive spillover effect on the midstream freight price. The downstream diesel market price, 92 gasoline market price, and 95 gasoline market price all exert positive volatility spillovers on the midstream crude oil freight price. (2) The volatility spillover effect between the upstream power coal price and the midstream coal freight price exhibits unidirectionality, and the volatility is transmitted from the power coal price to the coal freight price. (3) The upstream natural gas price and the midstream liquefied natural gas market price display asymmetric characteristics. Among them, the upstream natural gas price has a unidirectional and more pronounced positive volatility spillover effect on the midstream liquefied natural gas market price. Full article

The transition to sustainable transport poses significant challenges for urban mobility, requiring shifts in fuel consumption, emissions reductions, and economic adjustments. This study conducts a scenario-based analysis of Budapest’s transport energy consumption, emissions, and monetary implications for 2020, 2030, and 2050 using the Budapest Transport Model (EFM), which integrates COPERT and HBEFA within PTV VISUM. This research examines the evolution of diesel, gasoline, and electric vehicle (EV) energy use alongside forecasted fuel prices, using the ARIMA model to assess the economic impact of transport decarbonisation. The findings reveal a 32.8% decline in diesel consumption and a 64.7% drop in gasoline usage by 2050, despite increasing vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). Electricity consumption surged 97-fold, highlighting fleet electrification trends, while CO₂ emissions decreased by 48%, demonstrating the effectiveness of policies, improved vehicle efficiency, and alternative energy adoption. However, fuel price forecasts indicate significant cost escalations, with diesel and gasoline prices doubling and CO₂ pricing increasing sevenfold by 2050, presenting financial challenges in the transition. This study highlights the need for EV incentives, electricity price regulation, public transport investments, and carbon pricing adjustments. Future research should explore energy grid resilience, mobility trends, and alternative fuel adoption to support Budapest’s sustainable transport goals. Full article

This study examines the relationship between stock prices, energy prices, and climate policy uncertainty using 11 sectoral stocks in the U.S. market. The evidence confirms that rising prices of energy commodities positively affect not only the energy and oil sector stocks but also create spillover effects across other sectors. Notably, all sectoral stocks, except Real Estate sector, show resilience to increases in crude oil and gasoline, suggesting potential hedging benefits. In addition, the findings reveal that sectoral stock returns are generally negatively affected by several types of uncertainty, including climate policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, oil price uncertainty, as well as energy and environmental regulation-induced equity market volatility and the energy uncertainty index. These adverse effects are present across sectors, with few exceptions. The evidence reveals that the feedback effect between changes in climate policy uncertainty and changes in oil prices has an adverse impact on stock returns. Omitting these uncertainty factors from analyses could lead to biased estimates in the relationship between stock prices and energy prices. Full article

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is critical for sustainable development, particularly in rapidly urbanizing countries like Turkiye. This study analyzes fuel demand elasticities for diesel, gasoline, and LPG across 12 NUTS-1 regions of Turkiye in 2022, using a panel random effects SUR approach. The model accounts for regional variation and fuel interactions, producing robust estimates that uncover significant spatial and temporal differences in consumption patterns. Uniquely, diesel demand displays a significantly positive price elasticity, challenging the conventional assumption of inelasticity. Gasoline demand is moderately price-sensitive, while LPG appears relatively unresponsive. Strong cross-price elasticities—especially between diesel and gasoline—point to substitution effects that can inform more adaptive policy frameworks. Seasonal fluctuations and Istanbul’s outsized impact also shape national trends. These findings underscore the need for differentiated region- and fuel-specific strategies. While higher gasoline taxes may effectively reduce demand, lowering diesel and LPG use will require complementary measures such as infrastructure upgrades, behavioral incentives, and accelerated adoption of alternative fuels. The study advocates for regionally adjusted carbon pricing, removal of implicit subsidies, and targeted support for electric and hybrid vehicles. Aligning fiscal tools with actual demand behavior can enhance both the efficiency and equity of the transition to a low-carbon transportation system. Full article

In recent years, as an important alternative to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles, new electric vehicles (NEVs) have gained widespread attention and rapid development globally. In the traditional automotive industry chain, downstream vehicle manufacturers need to master core technologies, such as engines, chassis, and transmissions. In contrast to the traditional automotive industry chain, where downstream vehicle manufacturers must master core technologies, like engines, chassis, and transmissions, the electric vehicle industry chain has evolved in a way that the development of core components is gradually separated from the vehicle manufacturers. Downstream vehicle manufacturers can now outsource key components, such as batteries, electric controls, and motors. Additionally, in terms of sales models, the electric vehicle industry chain can adopt either the traditional 4S dealership model or a direct-sales model. As the research and development of core components are increasingly separated from vehicle manufacturers, the downstream vehicle manufacturers can source components, like batteries, electric controls, and motors, externally. At the same time, they can choose to use either the traditional 4S dealership model or the direct-sales model. The underlying mechanisms and channel selection in this context require further exploration. Based on this, a mathematical model is established by incorporating terminal marketing input, product competitiveness, and after-sales service levels from the literature to solve for the optimal pricing under centralized and decentralized pricing strategies. Using numerical examples, the pricing and profit performance under different market structures are analyzed to systematically examine the impact of the electric vehicle supply chain on business operations, as well as the changes in various elements across different channels. We will focus on how after-sales services (including the spare part supply) influence the pricing strategy and profit distribution in the supply chain, aiming to provide insights into advanced manufacturing system management for manufacturing enterprises and improve the efficiency of intelligent logistics management. The research indicates that (1) The direct-sales model helps to improve the terminal marketing input, after-sales service quality, and product competitiveness for supply chain stakeholders; (2) It is noteworthy that the manufacturer’s direct-sales model also significantly contributes to lowering prices, highlighting that the direct-sales model has substantial impacts on both supply chain stakeholders and, importantly, consumers. Full article

This study investigated market efficiency across 20 major commodity assets, including crude oil, utilizing fractal analysis. Additionally, a rolling window approach was employed to capture the time-varying nature of efficiency in these markets. A Granger causality test was applied to assess the influence of crude oil on other commodities. Key findings revealed significant inefficiencies in RBOB(Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenated Blending) Gasoline, Palladium, and Brent Crude Oil, largely driven by geopolitical risks that exacerbated supply–demand imbalances. By contrast, Copper, Kansas Wheat, and Soybeans exhibited greater efficiency because of their stable market dynamics. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the time-varying nature of efficiency, with short-term volatility causing price fluctuations. Geopolitical events such as the Russia–Ukraine War exposed some commodities to shocks, while others remained resilient. Brent Crude Oil was a key driver of market inefficiency. Our findings align with Fractal Fractional (FF) concepts. The MF-DFA method revealed self-similarity in market prices, while inefficient markets exhibited long-memory effects, challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Additionally, rolling window analysis captured evolving market efficiency, influenced by external shocks, reinforcing the relevance of fractal fractional models in financial analysis. Furthermore, these findings can help traders, policymakers, and researchers, by highlighting Brent Crude Oil as a key market indicator and emphasizing the need for risk management and regulatory measures. Full article

Background: Indonesia is an archipelagic country with 17,508 islands spread over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with thousands of inter-island routes requiring a large and engaged fleet. The vast expanse of the country also leads to challenges related to optimal fleet coverage, routing, and oil distribution while maintaining cost-effectiveness and reliable supply. Methods: This study combined a mixed-integer linear-programming (MILP) model with a response surface methodology (RSM) approach to optimize vessel assignment, vessel routes, and inventory control simultaneously and comprehensively across three regional clusters (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern Indonesia). The model takes into account a fleet of 28 vessels (13 medium range [MR] and 15 general purpose [GP]) that can distribute three oil products: gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. Results: The optimized solution yields 100% service reliability at an operational cost of $ 2.83 million per month—far lower than currently operating services. The model is robust against variations in demand (±20%), port congestion (±50%), and changing fuel prices (±50%), which is confirmed by a sensibility analysis. The close correlation coefficient (0.987) between the MILP and RSM results confirms the framework’s accuracy. At the same time, the critical performance factors were found to be vessel speed (13.5 knots), fleet size, and port operation time. Conclusions: The study offers a cost-efficient and data-intensive model that could be implemented as a maritime logistics framework, as well as potential areas for future work and insight for relevant stakeholders. Future research will have to integrate real-time data fusion, mainly due to the need for environmental and stochastic modeling methods to foster operational resilience in dynamic maritime business ecosystems. Full article

Despite Iran’s considerable renewable energy (RE) potential and excellent wind capacity and high solar radiation levels, these sources contribute only a small fraction of the country’s total energy production. This paper addresses the techno-economic viability of gray hydrogen production by these renewables, with a particular focus on solar energy. Given the considerable potential of solar energy and the strategic location of Shahrekord, it would be an optimal site for a hydrogen generation plant integrated with a solar field. HOMER Pro 3.18.3 software was utilized to model and optimize the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of steam reforming using different hydrocarbons in various scenarios. The results of this study indicate that natural gas (NG) reforming represents the most cost-effective method of gray hydrogen production in this city, with an LCOH of −0.423 USD/kg. Other hydrocarbons such as diesel, gasoline, propane, methanol, and ethanol have a price per kilogram of produced hydrogen as follows: USD −0.4, USD −0.293, USD 1.17, USD 1.48, and USD 2.15. In addition, integrating RE sources into hydrogen production was found to be viable. Moreover, by implementing RE technologies, CO₂ emissions can be significantly reduced, and energy security can be achieved. Full article

The global transition towards environmentally friendly energy sources plays a major role in addressing both energy security and climate change. Brazil is at the forefront of this transition due to its rich natural resources and increasing investments in biofuels. Therefore, this investigation examines the consumption patterns and interactions between ethanol, primarily sourced from sugarcane, and gasoline within Brazil’s energy framework. Ethanol’s renewability, reduced environmental impact, and superior combustion characteristics position it as a feasible substitute for traditional fossil fuels. Nonetheless, obstacles like competition for land use and inadequate distribution infrastructure impede its widespread acceptance. This study explores the economic interaction between ethanol and gasoline, focusing on pricing dynamics and regional influences. Using consumer preferences and the accessibility of ethanol, this research identifies a range of price ratios within which consumer preferences shift from gasoline to ethanol in various Brazilian regions. The study also classifies Brazilian states into three distinct ranges based on the ethanol-to-gasoline price ratio in 2023 for a granular analysis of the economic dynamics influencing fuel choice. The research identifies states with competitive and dominant ethanol markets by examining the interplay between ethanol market share, fuel prices, and the adoption of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the country. Lastly, the findings support the importance of regional economic conditions and the influence of price ratios on consumer behavior, highlighting that ethanol’s market share does not always correlate with favorable pricing. Full article

New York City is the most populous city in North America and the fourth most populous in the world. Due to the high population density and significant commuting population, the city experiences a large number of vehicles operating in a congested environment, leading to a substantial number of traffic accidents. This study examines a dataset compiled by the New York Police Department, which records every major vehicular accident in New York City from 2013 to 2023, exploring aspects such as accident types, severity, causes, and locations. This period includes the COVID-19 pandemic and other external factors like fluctuating gasoline prices, the rise of for-hire vehicle (FHV) services, and vehicles with new safety features. Data from multiple sources are analyzed to understand how these factors impacted accident rates during this timeframe. The analysis shows that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced accidents due to decreased motor vehicle traffic, with post-pandemic accident rates remaining at less than half of pre-pandemic levels. This sustained decline correlates with reduced traffic, increased FHV usage over taxis, and a growing number of new vehicles with advanced safety features. This study uses these datasets to develop a mathematical model to quantify these correlations and to provide insight for urban planners and policymakers seeking to improve road safety and manage traffic flow. Full article

This analysis compares the energy efficiency and operational costs of combustion vehicles (Hyundai Accent 1.6 L and Chevrolet Sail 1.5 L) with the Nissan Leaf, an electric vehicle, under current fuel and electricity pricing in Ecuador. Combustion vehicles, converting gasoline into mechanical energy, demonstrate substantial energy losses, leading to higher operational costs, especially with recent gasoline price hikes to USD 2.722 per gallon. In stark contrast, the Nissan Leaf exhibits significantly greater energy efficiency, consuming only 15–20 kWh per 100 km, which translates to lower running costs (USD 11.20 to fully charge a 40 kWh battery). Despite the clear economic and environmental benefits of electric vehicles, their adoption in Ecuador is hampered by geographical challenges such as diverse terrain that can affect vehicle range and battery longevity. Moreover, the limited and uneven distribution of EV charging stations, mostly concentrated in urban areas, poses significant barriers. For broader implementation, a strategic expansion of the EV infrastructure and careful consideration of the national energy grid’s capacity to support increased electric vehicle uptake are essential. Addressing these challenges is crucial for realizing the full potential of electric vehicles in enhancing Ecuador’s sustainability and energy independence. Full article

Rapid growth in vehicle ownership in the developing world and the evolution of transportation technologies have spurred a number of new challenges for policymakers. To address these challenges, this study develops a system dynamics (SD) model to project the future composition of Iran’s vehicle fleet, and to forecast fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions through 2040. The model facilitates the exploration of system behaviors and the formulation of effective policies by equipping decision-makers with predictive insights. Under various scenarios, this study simulates the penetration of five distinct vehicle types, highlighting that an increase in fuel prices does not constitute a sustainable long-term intervention for reducing fuel consumption. Additionally, the model demonstrates that investments aimed at the rapid adoption of electric transportation technologies yield limited short-term reductions in CO₂ emissions from transportation. The projections indicate that the number of vehicles in Iran is expected to surpass 30 million by 2040, with plug-in and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and PHEVs) comprising up to approximately 2.2 million units in the base scenario. It is anticipated that annual gasoline consumption and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars will escalate to 30,000 million liters and 77 million tons, respectively, over the next two decades. These findings highlight the need for a strategic approach in policy development to effectively manage the transition towards a lower-carbon vehicle fleet. Full article