Search Results (4)

This study investigates the forecast bust of Typhoon SHANSHAN (2024) characterized by large track errors using the four major interactive grand global operational ensemble data and the atmospheric reanalysis data. Ensemble space empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to 850, 500, and 300 hPa geopotential heights at three target times to diagnose how synoptic-scale uncertainty contributed to the erroneous motions of SHANSHAN. We align the multi-level EOF bases to a reference-time basis via a weighted Procrustes rotation and evaluate similarity to the atmospheric reanalysis data in the aligned principal component (PC) space, enabling robust, distance-based conditioning of ensemble members. Results show that ensemble spread is consistently larger in the mid-latitudes, with relatively large uncertainty concentrated around the upper-tropospheric trough and lower-tropospheric structure near SHANSHAN. The dominant EOF modes differ by phase of SHANSHAN: lower-tropospheric modes govern the westward-moving stage, whereas mid- and upper-tropospheric modes dominate after recurvature. Selecting members whose EOF-based PC structures most closely match the atmospheric reanalysis effectively suppresses large-error outliers and yields improved conditional track predictions. These findings highlight phase-dependent synoptic controls and demonstrate that adaptive, reference-consistent conditioning can enhance the track guidance of tropical cyclones during difficult forecast situations. Full article

The purpose and scientific novelty of this work is to analyze the changes and features of economic agents’ behavior when incorporating wage rigidity into a new Keynesian model under cognitive constraints of agents. The working hypothesis is the assumption that the forecasting of the output gap, inflation of prices and wages occurs with the help of fundamentalist and extrapolation rules. The first rule is based on forecasting the variables under study on the basis of their stationary values. The second rule is based on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these heuristic rules change endogenously, which is the source of endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism. An analysis of the impulse responses of interest rate and technology shocks suggests that a more flexible economy (an economy with flexible wages and rigid prices) is less prone to a spike in the economic cycle caused by waves of optimism and pessimism than a more rigid economy (an economy with rigid prices and wages) due to the inability of agents to respond immediately to exogenous disturbances in rigid conditions. Thus, these shocks cause wave effects in the economy, i.e., cyclical movements, i.e., a rigid economy will be more prone to booms and busts caused by alternating optimism and pessimism than a flexible economy. The model with an imperfect labor market is characterized by an increased concentration of vital forces at the values of 0 and 1, as well as in the mid-distribution compared to the base model. This feature provides a key explanation for the abnormal dynamics of the evolution of variables in this model. It is concluded that the difference between the degree of optimism and pessimism in the base model and in the model with rigid wages and prices is the full trust of agents in the central bank in targeting wage inflation in the absence of the stabilization of this inflation by the bank. Full article

Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom cohorts are still of working age, the working population will also age—and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend toward increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected to be close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm. Full article

Despite significant, steady improvements in the skill of medium-range weather prediction systems over the past several decades, the accuracy of these forecasts are occasionally very poor. These forecast failures are referred to as “busts” or “dropouts”. The lack of a clear explanation for bust events limits the development and implementation of strategies designed to reduce their occurrence. This study seeks to explore a flow regime where forecast busts occur over Europe in association with mesoscale convective systems over North America east of the Rocky Mountains. Our investigation focuses on error growth in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF’s) global model during the summer 2015 PECAN (Plains Elevated Convection at Night) experiment. Observations suggest that a close, but varied interrelationship can occur between long-lived, propagating, mesoscale convection systems over the Great Plains and Rossby wave packets. Aloft, the initial error occurs in the ridge of the wave and then propagates downstream as an amplifying Rossby wave packet producing poor forecasts in middle latitudes and, in some cases, the Arctic. Our results suggest the importance of improving the representation of organized deep convection in numerical models, particularly for long-lived mesoscale convective systems that produce severe weather and propagate near the jet stream. Full article