Search Results (741)

Economic systems face critical challenges, including widening income inequality, unemployment driven by automation, mounting public debt, and environmental degradation. This study introduces Economocracy as a transformative framework aimed at addressing these systemic issues by integrating democratic principles into economic decision-making to achieve social equity, economic efficiency, and environmental sustainability. The research focuses on two core mechanisms: Economic Productive Resets (EPRs) and Economic Periodic Injections (EPIs). EPRs facilitate proportional redistribution of resources to reduce income disparities, while EPIs target investments to stimulate job creation, mitigate automion-related job displacement, and support sustainable development. The study employs a theoretical and analytical methodology, developing mathematical models to quantify the impact of EPRs and EPIs on key economic indicators, including the Gini coefficient for inequality, unemployment rates, average wages, and job displacement due to automation. Hypothetical scenarios simulate baseline conditions, EPR implementation, and the combined application of EPRs and EPIs. The methodology is threefold: (1) a mathematical–theoretical validation of the Cycle of Money framework, establishing internal consistency; (2) an econometric analysis using global historical data (2000–2023) to evaluate the correlation between GNI per capita, Gini coefficient, and average wages; and (3) scenario simulations and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimates to test the systemic impact of implementing EPR/EPI policies on inequality and labor outcomes. The models are further strengthened through tools such as OLS regression, and Impulse results to assess causality and dynamic interactions. Empirical results confirm that EPR/EPI can substantially reduce income inequality and unemployment, while increasing wage levels, findings supported by both the theoretical architecture and data-driven outcomes. Results demonstrate that Economocracy can significantly lower income inequality, reduce unemployment, increase wages, and mitigate automation’s effects on the labor market. These findings highlight Economocracy’s potential as a viable alternative to traditional economic systems, offering a sustainable pathway that harmonizes growth, social justice, and environmental stewardship in the global economy. Economocracy demonstrates potential to reduce debt per capita by increasing the efficiency of public resource allocation and enhancing average income levels. As EPIs stimulate employment and productivity while EPRs moderate inequality, the resulting economic growth expands the tax base and alleviates fiscal pressures. These dynamics lead to lower per capita debt burdens over time. The analysis is situated within the broader discourse of institutional economics to demonstrate that Economocracy is not merely a policy correction but a new economic system akin to democracy in political life. Full article

This study investigates the predictive performance of financial indicators in forecasting stock prices within the automotive sector using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In light of the growing complexity of global financial markets and the increasing demand for automated, data-driven forecasting models, this research aims to identify those financial ratios that most accurately reflect price dynamics in this specific industry. The model incorporates four widely used financial indicators, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), and profit margin (PM), as inputs. The analysis is based on real financial and market data from automotive companies, and model performance was assessed using RMSE, nRMSE, and confidence intervals. The results indicate that the full model, including all four indicators, achieved the highest accuracy and prediction stability, while the exclusion of ROA or ROE significantly deteriorated model performance. These findings challenge the weak-form efficiency hypothesis and underscore the relevance of firm-level fundamentals in stock price formation. This study’s sector-specific approach highlights the importance of tailoring predictive models to industry characteristics, offering implications for both financial modeling and investment strategies. Future research directions include expanding the indicator set, increasing the sample size, and testing the model across additional industry domains. Full article

This paper explores the intervening role in SEP performance of corporate environmental, cultural, and ethnic activities (ECEAs) and diversity, equity, inclusion, and social initiatives (DEISIs) on blockchain adoption (BCA) strategy, particularly useful in the Western Balkans (WB), which demands transparency due to extended fraud and ethnic complexities. In this domain, a question has been raised: In BCA strategies, is there any correlation between SEP performance and ECEAs and DEISIs in a mediating role? A serial mediation model was tested on a dataset of 630 WB and EU companies, and the research conceptual model was validated by CFA (Confirmation Factor Analysis), and the SEM (Structural Equation Model) fit was assessed. We found a statistically sound (significant, positive) correlation between BCA and ESG success performance, especially in the innovation and integrity ESG performance success indicators, when DEISIs mediate. The findings confirmed the influence of technology, and environmental, cultural, ethnic, and social factors on BCA strategy. The findings revealed some important issues of BCA that are of worth to WB companies’ managers to address BCA for better performance. This study adds to the literature on corporate blockchain transformation, especially for organizations seeking investment opportunities in new international markets to diversify their assets and skill pool. Furthermore, it contributes to a deeper understanding of how DEI initiatives impact the correlation between business transformation and socioeconomic performance, which is referred to as the “social impact”. Full article

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a key metric widely applied in market risk assessment and regulatory compliance under the Basel III framework. This study compares two Monte Carlo-based VaR models using publicly available equity data: a return-based model calibrated to historical portfolio volatility, and a CAPM-style factor-based model that simulates risk via systematic factor exposures. The two models are applied to a technology-sector portfolio and evaluated under historical and rolling backtesting frameworks. Under the Basel III backtesting framework, both initially fall into the red zone, with 13 VaR violations. With rolling-window estimation, the return-based model shows modest improvement but remains in the red zone (11 exceptions), while the factor-based model reduces exceptions to eight, placing it into the yellow zone. These results demonstrate the advantages of incorporating factor structures for more stable exception behavior and improved regulatory performance. The proposed framework, fully transparent and reproducible, offers practical relevance for internal validation, educational use, and model benchmarking. Full article

Financial market forecasting remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics and regime-dependent behaviors that traditional models struggle to capture effectively. This research introduces the Adaptive Financial Reservoir Network with Hypernetwork Flow (AFRN–HyperFlow) framework, a novel ensemble architecture integrating Echo State Networks, temporal convolutional networks, mixture density networks, adaptive Hypernetworks, and deep state-space models for enhanced financial time-series prediction. Through comprehensive feature engineering incorporating technical indicators, spectral decomposition, reservoir-based representations, and flow dynamics characteristics, the framework achieves superior forecasting performance across diverse market conditions. Experimental validation on 26,817 balanced samples demonstrates exceptional results with an F1-score of 0.8947, representing a 12.3% improvement over State-of-the-Art baseline methods, while maintaining robust performance across asset classes from equities to cryptocurrencies. The adaptive Hypernetwork mechanism enables real-time regime-change detection with 2.3 days average lag and 95% accuracy, while systematic SHAP analysis provides comprehensive interpretability essential for regulatory compliance. Ablation studies reveal Echo State Networks contribute 9.47% performance improvement, validating the architectural design. The AFRN–HyperFlow framework addresses critical limitations in uncertainty quantification, regime adaptability, and interpretability, offering promising directions for next-generation financial forecasting systems incorporating quantum computing and federated learning approaches. Full article

This paper develops a unified framework for mathematical finance under general semimartingale models that allow for dividend payments, negative asset prices, and unbounded jumps. We present a rigorous approach to the mathematical modeling of financial markets with dividend-paying assets by defining appropriate concepts of numéraires, discounted processes, and self-financing trading strategies. While most of the mathematical results are not new, this unified framework has been missing in the literature. We carefully examine the transition between nominal and discounted price processes and define appropriate notions of admissible strategies that work naturally in both settings. By establishing the equivalence between these models and providing clear conditions for their applicability, we create a mathematical foundation that encompasses a wide range of realistic market scenarios and can serve as a basis for future work on mathematical finance and derivative pricing. We demonstrate the practical relevance of our framework through a comprehensive application to dividend-paying equity markets where the framework naturally handles discrete dividend payments. This application shows that our theoretical framework is not merely abstract but provides the rigorous foundation for pricing derivatives in real-world markets where classical assumptions need extension. Full article

We introduce a novel portfolio optimization framework—Distributionally Robust Multivariate Stochastic Cone Order (DR-MSCO)—which integrates partial orders on random vectors with Wasserstein-metric ambiguity sets and adaptive cone structures to model multivariate investor preferences under distributional uncertainty. Grounded in measure theory and convex analysis, DR-MSCO employs data-driven cone selection calibrated to market regimes, along with coherent tail-risk operators that generalize Conditional Value-at-Risk to the multivariate setting. We derive a tractable second-order cone programming reformulation and demonstrate statistical consistency under empirical ambiguity sets. Empirically, we apply DR-MSCO to 23 Borsa Istanbul equities from 2021–2024, using a rolling estimation window and realistic transaction costs. Compared to classical mean–variance and standard distributionally robust benchmarks, DR-MSCO achieves higher overall and crisis-period Sharpe ratios (2.18 vs. 2.09 full sample; 0.95 vs. 0.69 during crises), reduces maximum drawdown by 10%, and yields endogenous diversification without exogenous constraints. Our results underscore the practical benefits of combining multivariate preference modeling with distributional robustness, offering institutional investors a tractable tool for resilient portfolio construction in volatile emerging markets. Full article

Enhancing market integration levels is crucial for advancing sustainable regional collaborative development and achieving ecological protection and high-quality development goals within the Yellow River Basin, fostering a balance between economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental resilience. This study analyzed the retail price data of goods from prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022, employing the relative price method to measure the market integration index. Additionally, it examined the temporal and spatial evolution patterns and driving factors using the Dagum Gini coefficient and panel regression models. The results indicate the following. (1) The market integration index of the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%. The spatial pattern generally reflects a situation where the east is relatively high and the west is relatively low, as well as the south being higher than the north. (2) Regional disparities are gradually diminishing, with the overall Gini coefficient decreasing from 0.153 to 0.104. However, internal differences within the downstream and midstream areas have become prominent, and contribution rate analysis reveals that super-variable density has replaced between-group disparities as the primary source. (3) Upgrading the industrial structure and enhancing the level of economic development are the core driving forces, while financial support and digital infrastructure significantly accelerate the integration process. Conversely, the level of openness exhibits a phase-specific negative impact. We propose policy emphasizing the need to strengthen development in the upper reach of the Yellow River Basin, further improve interregional collaborative innovation mechanisms, and enhance cross-regional coordination among multicenter network nodes. Full article

This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on value creation in a balanced panel of 100 non-financial Sharia-compliant firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2023. The analysis employs a combination of econometric techniques, including fixed effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and industry and year dummies, and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to address potential endogeneity and omitted variable bias. Value creation is measured using Tobin’s Q (TBQ), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Equity (ROE). The models also control for firm-specific variables such as firm size, leverage, asset tangibility, firm age, growth opportunities, and market capitalization. The findings reveal that ESG disclosure has a positive and statistically significant effect on firm value across all three performance measures. Furthermore, firm size significantly moderates this relationship, with larger Sharia-compliant firms experiencing greater value gains from ESG practices. These results align with agency, stakeholder, and signaling theories, emphasizing the role of ESG in enhancing transparency, reducing information asymmetry, and strengthening stakeholder trust. The study provides empirical evidence relevant to policymakers, investors, and firms striving to achieve Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 sustainability goals. Full article

In this study, we utilize a unique quarterly dataset of non-GAAP earnings to re-examine the “informational” role of non-GAAP earnings from the perspective of value relevance and earnings predictability in the post-Reg G period. We find that non-GAAP earnings are more value relevant and can better predict future operating earnings of a firm compared to equivalent GAAP earnings. Additionally, we also find empirical evidence suggesting that the difference in the value relevance and earnings predictability between non-GAAP and equivalent GAAP earnings can vary across but cannot be completely mitigated by firm-level characteristics, such as the market value of equity, accruals quality, analyst coverage, and managerial ability of a firm. Moreover, our supplementary analysis reveals that the superior value relevance and predictive power of non-GAAP earnings persist even after the SEC’s release of the Compliance and Disclosure Interpretations (C&DI) in 2010. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests a superior “informational” role of non-GAAP earnings to equivalent GAAP earnings in terms of valuation and predictability on future operating performance in the post-Reg G period. Full article

This study focuses on the impact of China’s digital economy on sustainable modernization from 2011 to 2021, using provincial panel data for empirical analysis. By applying threshold and mediation models, we find that the digital economy promotes modernization through industrial upgrading (with a mediating effect of 38%) and trade openness (coefficient = 0.234). The research reveals “U-shaped” nonlinear threshold effects at specific levels of digital development (2.218), market efficiency (9.212), and technological progress (12.224). Eastern provinces benefit significantly (coefficient ranging from 0.12 to 0.15 ***), while western regions initially experience some inhibition (coefficient = −0.08 *). Industrial digitalization (coefficient = 0.13 ***) and innovation ecosystems (coefficient = 0.09 ***) play crucial roles in driving eco-efficiency and equity, in line with Sustainable Development Goals 9 and 13. Meanwhile, the impacts of infrastructure (coefficient = 0.07) and industrialization (coefficient = 0.085) are delayed. Economic modernization improves (coefficient = 0.37 ***), yet social modernization declines (coefficient = −0.12 *). This study not only enriches economic theory but also extends the environmental Kuznets curve to the digital economy domain. We propose tiered policy recommendations, including the construction of green digital infrastructure, carbon pricing, and rural digital transformation, which are applicable to China and offer valuable references for emerging economies aiming to achieve inclusive low-carbon growth in the digital era. Future research could further explore the differentiated mechanisms of various digital technologies in the modernization process across different regions and how to optimize policy combinations to better balance digital innovation with sustainable development goals. Full article

This study explores the spatial and social implications of urban food systems in Quito, Ecuador, focusing on how food access inequalities reflect and reinforce broader urban disparities. The research addresses a critical problem in contemporary urbanization: the disconnection between food provisioning and spatial equity in rapidly growing cities. The objective is to assess and map disparities in food accessibility using a mixed-methods approach that includes field observation, participatory mapping, value chain analysis, and statistical modeling. Five traditional and emerging food markets were studied in diverse districts across the city. A synthetic accessibility function F(x) was constructed to model food access levels, integrating variables such as income, infrastructure, transport availability, and travel time. These variables were subjected to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering to generate three typologies of territorial vulnerability. The results reveal that peripheral areas exhibit lower F(x) values and weaker integration with the formal food system, leading to higher consumer costs and limited fresh food options. In contrast, central districts benefit from multimodal infrastructure and greater diversity of supply. This study concludes that food systems should be treated as critical urban infrastructure. Integrating food equity into land use and mobility planning is essential to promote inclusive, sustainable, and resilient urban development. Full article

The contagious COVID-19 disease not only brought about a global health crisis but also a disruption in the global economy. The uncertainty levels regarding the impact of the disease increased volatility. This study analyses stock market volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of South Africa (SA) with that of the United States of America (USA) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to analyse volatility spillovers from a developed market (USA) to emerging markets (BRIC countries) and also to examine the causality between EPU and stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. By employing the GARCH-in-Mean model from a sample of daily returns of national equity market indices from 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2022, SA and China are shown to be the most volatile during the pandemic. By using the diagonal Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK) model to analyse spillover effects, evidence of spillover effects from the US to the emerging countries is small but statistically significant, with SA showing the strongest impact from US market shocks. From the Granger causality test, Brazil’s and India’s equity markets are shown to be highly sensitive to changes in EPU relative to the other countries. Full article

This study employs system theory and dynamic modeling to investigate how rural homestead rights confirmation influences multidimensional urban–rural integration. Through constructing a system dynamics model incorporating environmental, economic, and social sustainability indicators, an analysis of the structural relationships between land tenure security, resource mobility, and balanced regional development is conducted. The findings reveal that formalized property rights act as a systemic intervention triggering three synergistic effects: (1) enhanced rural resource utilization efficiency, (2) accelerated elements market integration, and (3) improved social equity in development opportunities. Scenario simulations project that, under current policy trajectories, urban–rural integration could achieve intermediate coordination by 2035 through sustainable land management practices. A comparative scenario analysis demonstrates that urban-priority models exacerbate spatial inequality, while rural-optimized and coordinated development pathways accelerate convergence toward comprehensive integration through ecological–economic–social multi-dimensional synergy. This research contributes to sustainability science by quantifying the systemic linkages between institutional innovation and spatial justice, providing evidence-based insights for developing countries pursuing integrated rural revitalization and sustainable urbanization strategies. The methodological framework offers replicable tools for assessing institutional reforms’ long-term impacts on territorial sustainability. Full article

This study examines the effects of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) market-based measures, with a particular focus on the greenhouse gas (GHG) levy and on the financial and operational performance of Korean shipping companies. The analysis estimates that these companies, which play a vital role in global trade, consume approximately 9211 kilotons of fuel annually and emit 28.5 million tons of carbon dioxide. Under the lowest proposed carbon tax scenario, the financial burden on these companies is estimated at approximately KRW 1.07 trillion, resulting in an 8.8% reduction in net profit, a 2.4% decrease in return on equity (ROE), and a 1.1% decline in return on assets (ROA). Conversely, under the highest carbon tax scenario, costs rise to KRW 4.89 trillion, leading to a significant 40.2% decrease in net profit, thereby posing a serious threat to the financial stability and competitiveness of these firms. These findings underscore the urgent need for strategic policy interventions to mitigate the financial impact of carbon taxation while promoting both environmental sustainability and economic resilience in the maritime sector. Full article