Search Results (13)

This paper presents a novel grid-to-vehicle modeling framework that leverages probabilistic methods and neural networks to accurately forecast electric vehicle (EV) charging demand and overall energy consumption. The proposed methodology, tailored to the specific context of Medellin, Colombia, provides valuable insights for optimizing charging infrastructure and grid operations. Based on collected local data, mathematical models are developed and coded to accurately reflect the characteristics of EV charging. Through a rigorous analysis of criteria, indices, and mathematical relationships, the most suitable model for the city is selected. By combining probabilistic modeling with neural networks, this study offers a comprehensive approach to predicting future energy demand as EV penetration increases. The EV charging model effectively captures the charging behavior of various EV types, while the neural network accurately forecasts energy demand. The findings can inform decision-making regarding charging infrastructure planning, investment strategies, and policy development to support the sustainable integration of electric vehicles into the power grid. Full article

Thanks to various European directives, individuals are empowered to share and trade electricity within Renewable Energy Communities, enhancing the operational efficiency of local energy systems. The digital transformation of the energy market enables the integration of decentralized energy resources using cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence. In order to assess the feasibility of new business models based on data-driven solutions, various electricity consumption time series are necessary at this level of aggregation. Since these are currently not yet available in sufficient quality and quantity, and due to data privacy reasons, synthetic time series are essential in the strategic planning of smart grid energy systems. By enabling the simulation of diverse scenarios, they facilitate the integration of new technologies and the development of effective demand response strategies. Moreover, they provide valuable data for assessing novel load forecasting methodologies that are essential to manage energy efficiently and to ensure grid stability. Therefore, this research proposes a methodology to synthesize electricity consumption time series by applying the Box–Jenkins method, an intelligent sampling technique for data augmentation and a probabilistic forecast model. This novel approach emulates the stochastic nature of electricity consumption time series and synthesizes realistic ones of Renewable Energy Communities concerning seasonal as well as short-term variations and stochasticity. Comparing autocorrelations, distributions of values, and principle components of daily sequences between real and synthetic time series, the results exhibit nearly identical characteristics to the original data and, thus, are usable in designing and studying efficient smart grid systems. Full article

With the rapid development of smart grids and distributed energy sources, the home energy management system (HEMS) is becoming a hot topic of research as a hub for connecting customers and utilities for energy visualization. Accurate forecasting of future short-term residential electricity demand for each major appliance is a key part of the energy management system. This paper aims to explore the current research status of household-level short-term load forecasting, summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods, and provide research ideas for short-term household load forecasting and household energy management. Firstly, the paper analyzes the latest research results and research trends in deep learning load forecasting methods in terms of network models, feature extraction, and adaptive learning; secondly, it points out the importance of combining probabilistic forecasting methods that take into account load uncertainty with deep learning techniques; and further explores the implications and methods for device-level as well as ultra-short-term load forecasting. In addition, the paper also analyzes the importance of short-term household load forecasting for the scheduling of electricity consumption in household energy management systems. Finally, the paper points out the problems in the current research and proposes suggestions for future development of short-term household load forecasting. Full article

The transportation sector is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Electric vehicles (EVs) have gained popularity as a solution to reduce emissions, but the high load of charging stations poses a challenge to the power grid. Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-RHES) present a promising alternative to support fast charging stations, reduce grid dependency, and decrease emissions. However, the intermittent problem of renewable energy sources (RESs) limits their application, and the synergies among different technologies have not been fully exploited. This paper proposes a predictive and adaptive control strategy to optimize the energy management of N-RHES for fast charging stations, considering the integration of nuclear, photovoltaics, and wind turbine energy with a hydrogen storage fuel cell system. The proposed dynamic model of a fast-charging station predicts electricity consumption behavior during charging processes, generating probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption time-series profiling. Key performance indicators and sensitivity analyses illustrate the practicability of the suggested system, which offers a comprehensive solution to provide reliable, sustainable, and low-emission energy to fast-charging stations while reducing emissions and dependency on the power grid. Full article

Residential electricity consumption forecasting plays a crucial role in the rational allocation of resources reducing energy waste and enhancing the grid-connected operation of power systems. Probabilistic forecasting can provide more comprehensive information for the decision-making and dispatching process by quantifying the uncertainty of electricity load. In this study, we propose a method based on stationary wavelet transform (SWT), quantile regression (QR), Bidirectional nested long short-term memory (BiNLSTM), and Depthwise separable convolution (DSC) combined with attention mechanism for electricity consumption probability prediction methods. First, the data sequence is decomposed using SWT to reduce the complexity of the sequence; then, the combined neural network model with attention is used to obtain the prediction values under different quantile conditions. Finally, the probability density curve of electricity consumption is obtained by combining kernel density estimation (KDE). The model was tested using historical demand-side data from five UK households to achieve energy consumption predictions 5 min in advance. It is demonstrated that the model can achieve both reliable probabilistic prediction and accurate deterministic prediction. Full article

In this paper, we present a case study aimed at determining a billing plan that ensures customer loyalty and provides a profit for the energy company, whose point of view is taken in the paper. The energy provider promotes new contracts for residential buildings, in which customers pay a fixed rate chosen in advance, based on an overall energy consumption forecast. For such a purpose, we consider a practical Bayesian framework for the calibration and validation of a computer code used to forecast the energy consumption of a building. On the basis of power field measurements, collected from an experimental building cell in a given period of time, the code is calibrated, effectively reducing the epistemic uncertainty affecting the most relevant parameters of the code (albedo, thermal bridge factor, and convective coefficient). The validation is carried out by testing the goodness of fit of the code with respect to the field measurements, and then propagating the posterior parametric uncertainty through the code, obtaining probabilistic forecasts of the average electrical power delivered inside the cell in a given period of time. Finally, Bayesian decision-making methods are used to choose the optimal fixed rate (for the energy provider) of the contract, in order to balance short-term benefits with customer retention. We identify three significant contributions of the paper. First of all, the case study data were never analyzed from a Bayesian viewpoint, which is relevant here not only for estimating the parameters but also for properly assessing the uncertainty about the forecasts. Furthermore, the study of optimal policies for energy providers in this framework is new, to the best of our knowledge. Finally, we propose Bayesian posterior predictive p-value for validation. Full article

Balancing the production and consumption of electricity is an urgent task. Its implementation largely depends on the means and methods of planning electricity production. Forecasting is one of the planning tools since the availability of an accurate forecast is a mechanism for increasing the validity of management decisions. This study provides an overview of the methods used to predict electricity supply requirements to different objects. The methods have been reviewed analytically, taking into account the forecast classification according to the anticipation period. In this way, the methods used in operative, short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting have been considered. Both classical and modern forecasting methods have been identified when forecasting electric energy consumption. Classical forecasting methods are based on the theory of regression and statistical analysis (regression, autoregressive models); probabilistic forecasting methods and modern forecasting methods use classical and deep-machine-learning algorithms, rank analysis methodology, fuzzy set theory, singular spectral analysis, wavelet transformations, Gray models, etc. Due to the need to take into account the specifics of each subject area characterizing an energy facility to obtain reliable forecast results, power consumption modeling remains an urgent task despite a wide variety of other methods. The review was conducted with an assessment of the methods according to the following criteria: labor intensity, requirements for the initial data set, scope of application, accuracy of the forecasting method, the possibility of application for other forecasting horizons. The above classification of methods according to the anticipation period allows highlights the fact that when predicting power consumption for different time intervals, the same methods are often used. Therefore, it is worth emphasizing the importance of classifying the forecast over the forecasting horizon not to differentiate the methods used to predict electricity consumption for each period but to consider the specifics of each type of forecasting (operative, short-term, medium-term, long-term). Full article

Estimating household energy use patterns and user consumption habits is a fundamental requirement for management and control techniques of demand response programs, leading to a growing interest in non-intrusive load disaggregation methods. In this work we propose a new methodology for disaggregating the electrical load of a household from low-frequency electrical consumption measurements obtained from a smart meter and contextual environmental information. The method proposed allows, with an unsupervised and non-intrusive approach, to separate loads into two components related to environmental conditions and occupants’ habits. We use a Bayesian approach, in which disaggregation is achieved by exploiting actual electrical load information to update the a priori estimate of user consumption habits, to obtain a probabilistic forecast with hourly resolution of the two components. We obtain a remarkably good accuracy for a benchmark dataset, higher than that obtained with other unsupervised methods and comparable to the results of supervised algorithms based on deep learning. The proposed procedure is of great application interest in that, from the knowledge of the time series of electricity consumption alone, it enables the identification of households from which it is possible to extract flexibility in energy demand and to realize the prediction of the respective load components. Full article

Electric Vehicle (EV) technologies offer a leading-edge solution for clean transportation and have evolved substantially in recent years. The growing market and policies of governments predict EV massive penetration shortly; however, their large deployment faces some resistances such as the high prices compared to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars, the required infrastructure, the liability for novelty and standardisation. During winter periods of cold countries, since the use of heating systems increases, the peak power may produce stress to the grid. This fact, combined with EVs high penetration, during charging periods inside of high consumption hours might overload the network, becoming a threat to its stability. This article presents a framework to evaluate load shifting strategies to reschedule the EV charging to lower grid load periods. The undesirable “rebound” effect of load shifting strategies is confirmed, leading us to our EV local overnight charging strategy (EV-ONCS). Our strategy combines the forecast of residential demand using probabilistic distribution from historical consumption, prediction of the EV expected availability to charge and the charging strategy itself. EV-ONCS avoids demand rebound of classic methods and allows a peak-to-average ratio reduction demonstrating the relief for the grid with very low implementation cost. Full article

The contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, we present ProbCast—a novel probabilistic model for multivariate time-series forecasting. We employ a conditional GAN framework to train our model with adversarial training. Second, we propose a framework that lets us transform a deterministic model into a probabilistic one with improved performance. The motivation of the framework is to either transform existing highly accurate point forecast models to their probabilistic counterparts or to train GANs stably by selecting the architecture of GAN’s component carefully and efficiently. We conduct experiments over two publicly available datasets—an electricity consumption dataset and an exchange-rate dataset. The results of the experiments demonstrate the remarkable performance of our model as well as the successful application of our proposed framework. Full article

The current COVID-19 pandemic and the preventive measures taken to contain the spread of the disease have drastically changed the patterns of our behavior. The pandemic and movement restrictions have significant influences on the behavior of the environment and energy profiles. In 2020, the reliability of the power system became critical under lockdown conditions and the chaining in the electrical consumption behavior. The COVID-19 pandemic will have a long-term effect on the patterns of our behavior. Unlike previous studies that covered only the start of the pandemic period, this paper aimed to examine and analyze electrical demand data over a longer period of time with five years of collected data up until November 2020. In this paper, the demand analysis based on the time series decomposition process is developed through the elimination of the impact of times series correlation, trends, and seasonality on the analysis. This aims to present and only show the pandemic’s impacts on the grid demand. The long-term analysis indicates stress on the grid (half-hourly and daily peaks, baseline demand and demand forecast error) and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the power grid is not a simple reduction in electricity demand. In order to minimize the impact of the pandemic on the performance of the forecasting model, a rolling stochastic Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous (ARIMAX) model is developed in this paper. The proposed forecast model aims to improve the forecast performance by capturing the non-smooth demand nature through creating a number of future demand scenarios based on a probabilistic model. The proposed forecast model outperformed the benchmark forecast model ARIMAX and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and reduced the forecast error by up to 23.7%. Full article

The growing number of electric vehicles (EV) is challenging the traditional distribution grid with a new set of consumption curves. We employ information from individual meters at charging stations that record the power drawn by an EV at high temporal resolution (i.e., every minute) to analyze and model charging habits. We identify five types of batteries that determine the power an EV draws from the grid and its maximal capacity. In parallel, we identify four main clusters of charging habits. Charging habit models are then used for forecasting at short and long horizons. We start by forecasting day-ahead consumption scenarios for a single EV. By summing scenarios for a fleet of EVs, we obtain probabilistic forecasts of the aggregated load, and observe that our bottom-up approach performs similarly to a machine-learning technique that directly forecasts the aggregated load. Secondly, we assess the expected impact of the additional EVs on the grid by 2030, assuming that future charging habits follow current behavior. Although the overall load logically increases, the shape of the load is marginally modified, showing that the current network seems fairly well-suited to this evolution. Full article

Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Users of electronic devices sometimes consume fluctuating amounts of electricity generated from smart-grid infrastructure owned by the government or private investors. However, frequent imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, hence effective planning is required to facilitate its distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is stimulated by the need to predict future consumption within a short period. Although several interesting classical techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT) model to address the lacuna of enormous predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models. The PSA-DT is based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a near-zero error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes. Full article