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Keywords = ecosystem services value

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25 pages, 4126 KB  
Article
Analysis of Influencing Factors of Ecosystem Service Value Based on Machine Learning—Evidence from the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt, China
by Xingyan Li, Zeduo Zou, Xiuyan Zhao and Chunshan Zhou
Land 2026, 15(3), 466; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15030466 (registering DOI) - 14 Mar 2026
Abstract
By integrating multi-source data, this study systematically analyzes the evolution of land use structure, spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of Ecosystem Service Value (ESV), and core driving mechanisms in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB) in eastern China from 2000 to 2020, based on [...] Read more.
By integrating multi-source data, this study systematically analyzes the evolution of land use structure, spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of Ecosystem Service Value (ESV), and core driving mechanisms in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB) in eastern China from 2000 to 2020, based on the ESV equivalent accounting model and XGBoost-SHAP coupled framework. The main results are as follows: (1) The land use structure is dominated by cropland, construction land, and forest land. Over the 20-year period, cropland was continuously converted out, primarily transforming into construction land and forest land, while other land types remained relatively stable. (2) Temporally, the total ESV showed a fluctuating downward trend, first increasing and then decreasing from 2000 to 2020. Spatially, the ESV exhibited a corridor effect of “decreasing from the river channel center to both banks”. High-value areas were concentrated in the eastern river–sea linkage zone and the central-western inland rising zone, while extremely low-value areas in 2020 were located in the northern Huaihai Economic Zone (with dense construction land), indicating an overall medium service level. (3) The evolution of ESV was driven by both natural and human factors: among natural factors, water coverage, elevation, and slope had positive effects, while high temperature had an inhibitory effect; among human–economic factors, population density showed an “increase first and then decrease” effect, and urban expansion significantly weakened ESV in the later period. The spatial differentiation presented a pattern of “natural background support in the upper reaches and socioeconomic intervention in the lower reaches”. This study provides a scientific basis for the optimization of territorial space and ecological protection and restoration in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt, and also offers a replicable research paradigm for ecosystem service management in similar river basin-type regions. Full article
25 pages, 8688 KB  
Article
From Isotopic Evidence to Economic Valuation: A “Water–Carbon–Economy” Nexus Framework for Climate-Resilient Urban Forestry in Southwestern China
by Jiaojiao Han, Yan Zhong, Ziying Sun, Xuejie Wang and Yingzhu Yang
Sustainability 2026, 18(6), 2775; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062775 - 12 Mar 2026
Viewed by 48
Abstract
Optimizing public investment in urban green infrastructure under water scarcity is a core challenge in resource economics. Against the backdrop of global climate change—characterized by rising temperatures, increased frequency and intensity of droughts, and altered precipitation patterns—this study addresses the critical knowledge gap [...] Read more.
Optimizing public investment in urban green infrastructure under water scarcity is a core challenge in resource economics. Against the backdrop of global climate change—characterized by rising temperatures, increased frequency and intensity of droughts, and altered precipitation patterns—this study addresses the critical knowledge gap in quantifying the economic returns on the physiological adaptations of urban trees, which are central to their value as natural capital. We integrated dual-water isotope (δ2H, δ18O) and leaf carbon isotope (δ13C) analyses to mechanistically decode the water use strategy of Machilus yunnanensis (M. yunnanensis) in drought-prone Kunming, China. The results show strategic seasonal plasticity: a shift from shallow soil water (10–50 cm) in the wet season to deeper soil sources (50–90 cm) and stem reserves in the dry season, coupled with a dynamic, diurnally variable water use efficiency (WUE13C). We then constructed a transparent economic valuation model translating these traits into three quantifiable benefit streams: (1) operational cost savings (EV1) from reduced irrigation demand; (2) enhanced marginal productivity of water (EV2) in ecosystem service generation; and (3) climate resilience value (EV3) via mitigated mortality risk. Our “Water–Carbon–Economy” nexus framework provides a generalizable methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness and risk-adjusted returns of urban forest species, demonstrating that tree selection based on such eco-efficient traits is not merely an ecological choice but a sound economic investment, offering direct implications for budget-constrained municipalities seeking to maximize green infrastructure benefits under climate uncertainty. Full article
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18 pages, 3408 KB  
Article
Landscape Heterogeneity Drives Plant Assemblage Dynamics and Invasibility of Semi-Natural Grasslands Under the Long-Term Invasion of Ageratina adenophora
by Longyuan Zhao, Lirong Guan, Qianmei Zou, Lu Xu, Yang Wang, Ninghui Pan, Sitong Liu, Shaorong Wu, Dexi Wu and Yong Xie
Plants 2026, 15(6), 862; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15060862 - 11 Mar 2026
Viewed by 153
Abstract
Grassland degradation is a critical ecological problem worldwide that threatens ecosystem integrity and functional services. Although previous studies have documented the drivers of climate change, overgrazing, and anthropogenic perturbation, research concerning the impact of invasive alien plants on grassland ecosystems remains limited. The [...] Read more.
Grassland degradation is a critical ecological problem worldwide that threatens ecosystem integrity and functional services. Although previous studies have documented the drivers of climate change, overgrazing, and anthropogenic perturbation, research concerning the impact of invasive alien plants on grassland ecosystems remains limited. The present study, integrating pairwise field investigation of Ageratina adenophora invasion and non-invasion plots across heterogeneous grassland types (tropical grasslands [TG]; tropical shrub-grasslands [TS]; warm-temperate grasslands [WG]; and warm-temperate shrub-grasslands [WS]) and A. adenophora indigenous plants phytotoxicity bioassay, aims to assess the invasibility and resilience of heterogeneous grassland landscapes to A. adenophora invasion. The field investigation demonstrated the greater vulnerability of TG and TS to A. adenophora invasion, whereas WG and WS possessed higher resilience. In addition, regression analysis revealed significant reductions of the Shannon–Wiener index and the Pielou index as the A. adenophora’s important value reached the threshold 0.36. Bioassay showed that A. adenophora aqueous extracts inhibit seed germination and seedling growth of recipient plants, with Saccharum arundinaceum exhibiting the highest tolerance to A. adenophora stress. In summary, our findings not only highlight the flora communities’ dynamics and invasibility of diverse grasslands driven by A. adenophora invasion in subtropical regions but also verify S. arundinaceum’s potential for A. adenophora replacement management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Plant Protection and Biotic Interactions)
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17 pages, 2959 KB  
Article
Sublethal Clothianidin Exposure Impairs Development, Thyroid Hormones, Locomotion and Predation in Fejervarya cancrivora from Rice Paddy Ecosystems
by Joko Pilianto, Amr Abou El-Ela, Asim Munawar, Xiangfen Zhang, Dun Wang, Abid Ali Soomro, Naved A. Ansari, Wenwu Zhou and Zengrong Zhu
Toxics 2026, 14(3), 243; https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics14030243 - 11 Mar 2026
Viewed by 92
Abstract
Clothianidin (CLO) is a widely used neonicotinoid insecticide in agricultural systems and may pose risks to non-target aquatic organisms, including amphibians. Here, we evaluated acute and sublethal effects of CLO on Fejervarya cancrivora tadpoles, an important predator of insect pests in rice paddy [...] Read more.
Clothianidin (CLO) is a widely used neonicotinoid insecticide in agricultural systems and may pose risks to non-target aquatic organisms, including amphibians. Here, we evaluated acute and sublethal effects of CLO on Fejervarya cancrivora tadpoles, an important predator of insect pests in rice paddy ecosystems. Acute toxicity tests (96 h) yielded an LC50 of 50.41 mg a.i./L (with LC10, LC25 and LC30 values of 15.35, 31.96 and 36.07 mg a.i./L, respectively). Sublethal exposure at these concentrations significantly reduced body weight, whole-body length, and hindlimb length during metamorphosis. CLO also altered thyroid hormone regulation, with T4 showing a dose-dependent increase, while T3 was elevated relative to controls but showed comparatively limited additional sensitivity to concentration and exposure duration. Locomotor activity was impaired under sublethal CLO exposure, reflected by reduced swimming distance and speed. In addition, frogs that developed from CLO-exposed tadpoles exhibited decreased feeding efficiency on brown planthoppers (Nilaparvata lugens) across developmental stages 46–48. Together, these findings demonstrate that CLO can affect amphibian development, endocrine regulation, and behavior at sublethal levels, highlighting the need to incorporate sublethal endpoints into ecological risk assessment and to promote pest management strategies that reduce impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Full article
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30 pages, 2010 KB  
Article
On the Convergence of Internet of Things and Decentralized Finance: Security Challenges and Future Directions
by Prasannakumaran Sarasijanayanan, Nithya Nedungadi and Sriram Sankaran
Sensors 2026, 26(6), 1740; https://doi.org/10.3390/s26061740 - 10 Mar 2026
Viewed by 246
Abstract
The rapid convergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) and decentralized finance (DeFi) is reshaping the digital economy by enabling autonomous, trustless, and value-driven interactions among connected devices. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the emerging paradigm that combines IoT’s pervasive sensing [...] Read more.
The rapid convergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) and decentralized finance (DeFi) is reshaping the digital economy by enabling autonomous, trustless, and value-driven interactions among connected devices. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the emerging paradigm that combines IoT’s pervasive sensing and communication capabilities with DeFi’s programmable financial infrastructure. We first discuss the motivation behind this convergence and explore key opportunities, including autonomous machine-to-machine (M2M) payments, decentralized data marketplaces, and trustless IoT service provisioning. Despite its potential, IoT–DeFi integration introduces significant security and privacy challenges related to smart contract vulnerabilities, consensus protocol risks, oracle manipulation, and constrained device capabilities. We review existing mitigation approaches such as lightweight cryptography, secure contract design, and decentralized identity management, and critically assess their limitations in heterogeneous, resource-limited environments. Building on this analysis, identify research gaps and propose future directions emphasizing formal verification of IoT-integrated smart contracts, robust oracle design, interoperability frameworks, and privacy-preserving trust models. This survey systematically maps opportunities, threats, and open issues. In doing so, it guides researchers and practitioners toward building secure, scalable, and energy-efficient IoT–DeFi ecosystems for next-generation decentralized applications. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Security for Emerging Intelligent Systems)
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26 pages, 13465 KB  
Article
Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Spatial Heterogeneity of Carbon Storage Under Alternative Scenarios in Coastal Zhejiang–Fujian–Guangdong, China (2000–2035)
by Jie Wang, Haiyang Zhang, Runbin Hu and Yixuan Zhou
Sustainability 2026, 18(6), 2670; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062670 - 10 Mar 2026
Viewed by 136
Abstract
Coastal provinces in eastern China are experiencing rapid urbanization that challenges ecosystem services and low-carbon development. In this study, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong Provinces were selected, and the influence of land use/land cover change (LUCC) on carbon storage and its spatial heterogeneity was [...] Read more.
Coastal provinces in eastern China are experiencing rapid urbanization that challenges ecosystem services and low-carbon development. In this study, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong Provinces were selected, and the influence of land use/land cover change (LUCC) on carbon storage and its spatial heterogeneity was quantified. LUCC datasets for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were compiled to describe land-use dynamics over 2000–2020. Carbon storage was estimated with the InVEST model. Land-use patterns for 2035 were simulated using the PLUS model under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and development priority. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) were then used to determine the key drivers of spatial variability in carbon storage. Between 2000 and 2020, farmland, forest, grassland, and unused land showed an overall decline, while water bodies and tt-up land expanded; together, these changes corresponded to a carbon-storage loss of 121.19 Tg. Carbon density exhibited pronounced spatial clustering, with higher values concentrated in mountainous and less urbanized areas; built-up expansion and forest degradation were the primary contributors to carbon loss. By 2035, total carbon storage is projected to decrease by 74.67 Tg under natural development and by 108.54 Tg under development priority, whereas ecological protection is projected to yield the smallest decline (35.71 Tg). These results underscore the importance of sustainable coastal land-use planning and integrated coastal zone management, which balance development and ecosystem services by prioritizing ecological protection, curbing built-up expansion, and promoting forest restoration. Such nature-based solutions can enhance carbon sequestration, strengthen climate resilience, and support China’s low-carbon transition toward its dual-carbon targets. Full article
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24 pages, 12588 KB  
Article
Effects of Highway Construction on Landscape Patterns, Ecosystem Service Value, Habitat Connectivity and Their Associations in Zhejiang, China
by Jieyong Zhan, Yuhang Chen, Yanbo Yang and Wenjie Wang
Forests 2026, 17(3), 338; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030338 - 8 Mar 2026
Viewed by 169
Abstract
Highway construction is a major driver of landscape transformation, yet its integrated effects on ecological functions in forested regions under strong ecological governance remain poorly quantified. This study examines spatiotemporal changes in land use, landscape patterns, ecosystem service value (ESV), and habitat connectivity [...] Read more.
Highway construction is a major driver of landscape transformation, yet its integrated effects on ecological functions in forested regions under strong ecological governance remain poorly quantified. This study examines spatiotemporal changes in land use, landscape patterns, ecosystem service value (ESV), and habitat connectivity within 1–5 km buffer zones along three highways in Zhejiang, China, from 2000 to 2023. Results indicate that highway-induced fragmentation was land-use-specific: cropland and construction land became more fragmented, while forests maintained high spatial cohesion due to protective policies. ESV per hectare increased over time and with distance from highways, driven by forest expansion and economic revaluation. In contrast, habitat connectivity for reptiles, amphibians, mammals, and birds declined, revealing a decoupling between ESV enhancement and connectivity conservation. These findings underscore the context-dependent impacts of highways and highlight the need for integrated management strategies that preserve forest integrity to balance ecological functions in rapidly developing regions. Full article
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23 pages, 12310 KB  
Article
Multi-Scenario Simulation of Low-Carbon Land Use Using an Integrated NSGA-III–PLUS Framework in Coastal Urban Agglomerations
by Tingting Pan and Fenzhen Su
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2026, 15(3), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15030113 - 8 Mar 2026
Viewed by 122
Abstract
Rapid urban expansion poses growing challenges for balancing carbon emissions (CE), economic development, and ecological protection, particularly in coastal urban agglomerations. Although optimization–simulation approaches have been widely applied, explicit consideration of low-carbon objectives remains limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an [...] Read more.
Rapid urban expansion poses growing challenges for balancing carbon emissions (CE), economic development, and ecological protection, particularly in coastal urban agglomerations. Although optimization–simulation approaches have been widely applied, explicit consideration of low-carbon objectives remains limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III (NSGA-III)–patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) framework that combines multi-objective optimization with spatially explicit land-use simulation. Using multi-temporal land-use datasets (2000–2020) from the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), this research examined spatiotemporal land-use transitions and their co-evolution with CE, ecosystem services value (ESV), and GDP under five development scenarios. The results show that construction land expanded by 78% from 2000 to 2020, largely through cropland conversion, which pushed CE upward to 335.4 Mt. For 2030, the Low Carbon Emission scenario reduces CE by 11.8 Mt compared with the natural development scenario. The Balanced Development scenario maintains economic growth while limiting CE increases and stabilizing ESV. Spatially, scenario differences are limited in extent. Over 93% of areas remain unchanged, and variations are mainly concentrated in peri-urban corridors around the Guangzhou–Foshan core. Overall, the NSGA-III–PLUS framework provides a structured approach for coordinating carbon mitigation and land-use planning in rapidly urbanizing coastal areas. Full article
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26 pages, 4604 KB  
Article
Topsoil Geochemistry and Land-Use-Related Metal(loid) Risks on Maio Island, Cape Verde
by Filipa Moreno, Marina Cabral Pinto, Orquídia Neves and Rosana Neto
Geosciences 2026, 16(3), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences16030109 - 6 Mar 2026
Viewed by 239
Abstract
Soil provides essential ecosystem services and is pivotal for achieving multiple United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals amid growing population pressures and resource demands. In arid to semi-arid regions such as Maio Island (Cape Verde), nutrient-poor soils and unsustainable land-use practices increase agricultural [...] Read more.
Soil provides essential ecosystem services and is pivotal for achieving multiple United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals amid growing population pressures and resource demands. In arid to semi-arid regions such as Maio Island (Cape Verde), nutrient-poor soils and unsustainable land-use practices increase agricultural vulnerability, while volcanic geochemistry introduces elements that are not human friendly, further challenging environmental quality and long-term sustainability. Assessing soil (physical–chemical–biological) condition is therefore crucial for informed environmental and land-use planning. Here, Maio’s topsoil was evaluated using protocols adapted from Santiago, the largest Cape Verdean island. Estimated Background Values (EBVs) indicated naturally elevated V, Cr, Ni, Co, and Cu concentrations, consistent with mafic volcanic terrains. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) revealed geochemical groupings linked to volcanic–sedimentary units, with the dominant component (PC1) defined by Co–V–Cu–Mn–Ni versus As–Cd. Environmental Risk Indices (ERIs) and Multi-Element ERIs (ME–ERIs) quantified elemental enrichment relative to international land-use standards (residential and agricultural) and subsequently to Maio’s EBVs. The highest exceedances were observed for Cr, Co, Ni, V, and Cu, whereas As, Cd, Hg, Pb, and Zn fell within thresholds. The EBV-based assessment identified fewer exceedances than stricter international guidelines, though a few multi-element “hotspots” persist, highlighting potential land-use constraints and the need for preventive management. Overall, the integrated EBV/ERI/ME–ERI framework establishes an environmental geochemical baseline for Maio and offers a screening tool applicable across the entire archipelago. Full article
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50 pages, 9504 KB  
Article
What Drives Residents’ Divergent Perceptions of Cultural Ecosystem Services in Urban Park Green Spaces? A Dual-Source Analysis Synergizing Social Media and Survey Data
by Xiaokang Li, Zhuofan Ye, Lin Lei, Yiwu Wen and Junwen Huang
Sustainability 2026, 18(5), 2578; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18052578 - 6 Mar 2026
Viewed by 228
Abstract
In the context of rapid urbanization and the pursuit of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), cities face multifaceted challenges such as high population density, limited green space, ecosystem degradation, and an insufficient supply of [...] Read more.
In the context of rapid urbanization and the pursuit of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), cities face multifaceted challenges such as high population density, limited green space, ecosystem degradation, and an insufficient supply of ecological products, all of which undermine urban sustainability. As crucial ecological units, urban park green spaces (UPGS) play a vital role in alleviating environmental pressures and providing cultural ecosystem services (CES) that are essential for human well-being and social sustainability. However, systematic insight into how residents perceive and value CES, along with the underlying drivers, remains underdeveloped, impeding the advancement of refined park management practices. Based on 12,083 social media texts, this study employed BERTopic topic modeling to identify five core dimensions of CES perception: recreational services (RS), aesthetic experiences (AE), health-promoting activities (HA), social interactions (SI), and educational services (ES). Additionally, four underlying drivers with corresponding measurable indicators were also identified: residents’ socioeconomic backgrounds (RSB), external built environment of parks (EBE), internal landscape composition (ILC), and quality of services management (QSM). Subsequently, using 313 valid questionnaires and geographic park data, a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) framework was constructed to analyze the influence mechanisms of EBE, ILC, and QSM on CES perception differences, with residents’ satisfaction with CES serving as the measure of their perceived CES levels. Hierarchical regression analysis was further employed to examine the moderating effects of RSB on these driving pathways. The findings reveal the following: (1) Significant synergies and heterogeneities existed among CES dimensions, with notable synergistic effects observed between AE and SI, as well as between HA and RS. (2) EBE, ILC, and QSM significantly influenced CES perception differences (p < 0.05). EBE affected these differences through pathways such as EBE → ILC → QSM → CES and EBE → QSM → CES. Notably, QSM was identified as the most critical mediating factor affecting CES perception differences. (3) Age exerted a significant positive moderating effect on the QSM → CES pathway, while monthly income showed a marginally significant negative moderating trend on the ILC → QSM pathway. This study elucidates the multi-level driving mechanisms underlying differences in residents’ perceptions of CES in UPGS. A key innovation lies in the integration of large-scale social media text data with questionnaire surveys, combined with the application of the BERTopic model and PLS-SEM to analyze these perceptual differences. The findings offer both theoretical foundations and practical insights for landscape optimization and service enhancement in park planning and management, contributing to the development of more equitable, resilient, and sustainable urban environments. Full article
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21 pages, 4889 KB  
Article
Social Value Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Urban Cultural Landscapes from the Perspective of Visitors
by Yujia Guo, Yao Du, Shiliang Liu and Yuhong Dong
Land 2026, 15(3), 428; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15030428 - 6 Mar 2026
Viewed by 222
Abstract
The cultural services of urban cultural landscape ecosystems are easily perceived by visitors, and their quantitative assessment and exploration of influencing factors can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of urban cultural landscapes. Existing studies rarely reveal the spatial distribution of the [...] Read more.
The cultural services of urban cultural landscape ecosystems are easily perceived by visitors, and their quantitative assessment and exploration of influencing factors can provide a scientific basis for the optimization of urban cultural landscapes. Existing studies rarely reveal the spatial distribution of the social values of urban cultural landscape ecosystem cultural services and the influencing factors of this spatial distribution from the visitors’ perspective. To reveal the spatial distribution pattern of the social values of urban cultural landscape ecosystem cultural services from the visitors’ perspective, explore its influencing factors, and verify the applicability of the SolVES model in urban cultural landscapes, this study obtained the overall perception and preferences of visitors towards Cangzhou Garden Expo Park through a questionnaire survey. Combining the questionnaire survey data with geographical data, the SolVES 3.0 model was employed to conduct quantitative assessments and spatial distribution analyses of six social values of the ecosystem: esthetic, biodiversity, historical, recreation, learning, and life-sustaining values. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The maximum value index of recreation value and esthetic value were highest, and showed significant spatial concentrated characteristics, with hotspots concentrated at the northeast side of the park. (2) Biodiversity value and historical value were prominent near areas rich in plant resources and industrial heritage sites. (3) The distance to roads and slope significantly influenced the assessment of social values; social values showed a significant negative correlation with distance to roads. (4) The Garden Expo Park had strong advantages in ecological restoration and social value supply, but there were still problems such as inconvenient transportation and uneven value distribution. Based on the above results, this study proposed suggestions for enhancing the social values of the ecosystem services in Cangzhou Garden Expo Park, and further provided targeted optimization suggestions for the construction and management of urban cultural landscapes. The SolVES model showed good performance in assessing the social values of the ecosystem services of an urban cultural landscape, with high reliability and promising application prospects. Full article
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26 pages, 8185 KB  
Article
Scenario-Based Economic Valuation of Forest Carbon Sequestration in Nepal: Implications for REDD+ (2030–2050)
by Gita Bhushal and Pankaj Lal
Sustainability 2026, 18(5), 2468; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18052468 - 3 Mar 2026
Viewed by 206
Abstract
Land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly influences national carbon dynamics and the effectiveness of forest-based climate mitigation strategies, particularly in mountainous developing countries. This study integrates scenario-based LULC modeling, spatially explicit carbon accounting, and economic valuation to assess how alternative development [...] Read more.
Land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly influences national carbon dynamics and the effectiveness of forest-based climate mitigation strategies, particularly in mountainous developing countries. This study integrates scenario-based LULC modeling, spatially explicit carbon accounting, and economic valuation to assess how alternative development pathways affect carbon storage and its economic value in Nepal over the 2020–2050 period. LULC projections for four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Urban Development (RUD), Forest Degradation and Terai Contraction (FDTC), and Agricultural Land Abandonment and Ecological Recovery (ALER), were generated using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler, with 2020 as the baseline. These projections were then used as inputs to the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Carbon Storage and Sequestration model to estimate changes in ecosystem carbon stocks, integrating aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil organic carbon, and dead organic matter pools. Carbon stock changes were monetized using a constant carbon price of USD 5/tCO2e and a 3% discount rate to estimate net present values (NPV). Results reveal strong divergence across scenarios. National carbon storage remains near-neutral under BAU (−0.46% by 2050), declines under RUD (−2.42%) and FDTC (−5.32%), and increases substantially under ALER (+11.74%). These biophysical outcomes translate into contrasting economic values: BAU yields a small negative NPV, RUD and FDTC generate large discounted losses, and ALER produces a strongly positive NPV exceeding USD 800 million by 2050. Spatially, forest and other wooded land dominate national carbon dynamics, while urban expansion and forest degradation drive disproportionate losses. Overall, the study results demonstrate that recovery-oriented land-use pathways offer substantially greater long-term carbon and economic benefits than development trajectories dominated by urban expansion or forest degradation, providing a policy-relevant framework to support Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, together with conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) planning and long-term mitigation assessment in Nepal. Full article
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37 pages, 3393 KB  
Article
Synergistic Optimization of Land Use and Ecosystem Services in Arid Regions: Scenario Simulation of the Hexi Corridor Based on the PLUS Model
by Qian Wang, Zhengang Yan and Wei Li
Land 2026, 15(3), 414; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15030414 - 3 Mar 2026
Viewed by 190
Abstract
Arid ecological transition zones are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities, but land use optimization strategies for them often lack policy-oriented quantitative analysis. This study uses the Hexi Corridor in China as a case study, integrating multi-level policy planning indicators with [...] Read more.
Arid ecological transition zones are highly sensitive to climate change and human activities, but land use optimization strategies for them often lack policy-oriented quantitative analysis. This study uses the Hexi Corridor in China as a case study, integrating multi-level policy planning indicators with the PLUS model to construct four scenarios: natural changes, economic growth, ecological protection, and planning-constrained development. This approach enhances policy compatibility (Kappa = 0.86). The study analyzes land use changes from 2000 to 2020 and simulates changes for 2030, with a focus on their impact on ecosystem service value (ESV). Key findings include the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, unused land and grassland dominated the area, with construction land expanding by 164.73%. (2) The planning-constrained development scenario maximized ESV (CNY 220.46 billion, up 7.7% from 2020), while controlling construction land growth (+30.11%). (3) Hydrological and climate regulation are the primary contributors to ESV, with the expansion of water areas by 113,032.60 hectares under ecological protection showing the effectiveness of policy intervention. Innovations in this study include the proposal of a “policy–model” coupling framework, offering actionable guidance for ecological protection and economic development in arid regions. Full article
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35 pages, 1971 KB  
Article
Temporal and Spatial Invariance of Allometric Parameters for Predicting Leaf Biomass in Zostera marina: A Theoretical and Empirical Reassessment
by Cecilia Leal-Ramírez, Héctor Echavarría-Heras, Enrique Villa-Diharce and Abelardo Montesinos-López
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(5), 2445; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16052445 - 3 Mar 2026
Viewed by 180
Abstract
Anthropogenic pressures and climate change are accelerating the degradation of seagrass ecosystems and the ecological services they provide. In temperate systems, the decline of eelgrass (Zostera marina) has raised noticeable concern, particularly as restoration actions (e.g., transplantation) require accurate, nondestructive estimates [...] Read more.
Anthropogenic pressures and climate change are accelerating the degradation of seagrass ecosystems and the ecological services they provide. In temperate systems, the decline of eelgrass (Zostera marina) has raised noticeable concern, particularly as restoration actions (e.g., transplantation) require accurate, nondestructive estimates of leaf biomass. Allometric power-law models can provide such proxies, but their applied value depends on whether fitted parameters remain transferable across sites and sampling periods. Here, using two extensive and independently collected datasets from San Quintín Bay (SQ) and Punta Banda estuary (PB), we evaluate three formulations: M1 (biomass–length), M2 (biomass–length–width), and M3 (biomass–area surrogate). All three models produced consistent fits in both datasets, and parameter-comparison tests detected no significant between-site differences. Reciprocal cross-projections of monthly mean leaf biomass showed high concordance, supporting practical parameter stability within the SQ–PB domain. A model-selection analysis based on goodness of fit and parsimony further identified the bivariate model M2 as the best-performing proxy across sites. Taken together, these results support a practical interpretation in which eelgrass may express phenotypic plasticity through shifts in trait distributions (length and width), while the scaling relation linking morphology to biomass remains effectively stable. For applied restoration-comparison purposes, we therefore recommend using M2—preferably with site-fitted parameters, or pooled/mean parameters when supported by reproducibility tests—to estimate aerial production non-destructively and cost-effectively. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Marine Science and Engineering)
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18 pages, 259 KB  
Article
Community-Based Tourism Entrepreneurial Ecosystems for the Sustainable Development Goals: Tackling Grand Societal Challenges in Emerging Economies
by Leonard A. Jackson
Sustainability 2026, 18(5), 2389; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18052389 - 2 Mar 2026
Viewed by 184
Abstract
Community-based tourism (CBT) is widely promoted as a route to inclusive growth and conservation in emerging economies, yet outcomes vary because the communities’ ability to create, scale, and sustain CBT enterprises depends on the surrounding entrepreneurial ecosystem. Building on entrepreneurial ecosystem theory and [...] Read more.
Community-based tourism (CBT) is widely promoted as a route to inclusive growth and conservation in emerging economies, yet outcomes vary because the communities’ ability to create, scale, and sustain CBT enterprises depends on the surrounding entrepreneurial ecosystem. Building on entrepreneurial ecosystem theory and grand challenges scholarship, this article reframes CBT as a place-based entrepreneurial ecosystem that mobilizes local and external actors, resources, and institutions to advance the United Nations 2030 Agenda. The purpose of the study is to develop and illustrate an SDG-oriented CBT entrepreneurial ecosystem framework and identify the ecosystem mechanisms and boundary conditions associated with SDG contributions. Using a qualitative multiple-case design and structured document analysis of 42 public artifacts (peer-reviewed studies, program evaluations, organizational reports, and organizational webpages), three initiatives were examined: Namibia’s communal conservancies, Chi Phat community-based ecotourism in Cambodia, and Bolivia’s Chalalán Ecolodge. Cross-case synthesis showed that progress on SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)—with complementary contributions to SDGs 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, and 17—emerges when ecosystems combine: (i) enforceable community rights and benefit-sharing rules; (ii) bridging organizations that provide training, finance, market access, and quality assurance; (iii) accountable local governance for transparency and conflict resolution; and (iv) reinvestment mechanisms that fund conservation and community services. The analysis also identified boundary conditions (e.g., elite capture, value leakage, donor dependence, uneven tourism potential, and demand shocks) and specific policy levers (tenure security, adaptive concession policies, blended finance, and impact monitoring) to strengthen CBT ecosystems for SDG delivery. Full article
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