Search Results (1,720)

 Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) continues to circulate globally, causing substantial economic losses to the swine industry. Historically, PEDV strains are classified into the classical G1, epidemic G2, and S-INDEL genotypes. Among these genotypes, the highly virulent and prevalent G2 genotype has been extensively studied. However, recent clinical outbreaks in China necessitate a reevaluation of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains. This study analyzed 37 newly sequenced S genes and public sequences to characterize the genetic variations of S-INDEL strains. Our analysis revealed that S-INDEL strains are endemic throughout China, with a phylogenetic analysis identifying two distinct clades: clade 1, comprising early endemic strains, and clade 2, representing a recently dominant, geographically restricted lineage in China. While inter-genotypic recombination has been documented, our findings also demonstrate that intra-genotypic and intra-clade recombination events contributed significantly to the emergence of clade 2, distinguishing its evolutionary pattern from clade 1. A comparative analysis identified 22 clade-specific amino acid changes, 11 of which occurred in the D0 domain. Notably, mutations at positively selected sites—113 and 114 within the D0 domain, a domain associated with pathogenicity—were specific to clade 2. A phylodynamic analysis indicated Germany as the epicenter of S-INDEL dispersal, with China acting as a sink population characterized by localized transmission networks and frequent recombination events. These results demonstrate that contemporary S-INDEL strains, specifically clade 2, exhibit unique recombination patterns and mutations potentially impacting virulence. Continuous surveillance is essential to assess the pathogenic potential of these evolving recombinant variants and the efficacy of vaccines against them.  Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the long-term energy performance and economic viability of offshore wind farms planned for locations within the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea. It focuses on the impact of wind farm layout, aerodynamic wake effects, and rotor blade surface degradation. Using the Jensen wake model, modified Weibull wind speed distributions are computed for various turbine spacing configurations (5D, 8D, and 10D) and wake decay constants $k_w\in \{0.02;0.03;0.05\}$. The results reveal a trade-off between turbine density and individual turbine efficiency: tighter spacing increases the total annual energy production (AEP) but also intensifies wake-induced losses. The study shows that cumulative losses due to wake effects can range from 16.5% to 38%, depending on the scenario considered. This corresponds to capacity factors ranging from 33.4% to 45.2%. Finally, lifetime productivity scenarios over 20 and 25 years are analyzed, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is calculated to assess the economic implications of design choices. The analysis reveals that, depending on the values of the considered parameters, the LCOE can range from USD 116.3 to 175.7 per MWh produced. The study highlights the importance of early stage optimization in maximizing both the energy yield and cost-efficiency in offshore wind farm developments. Full article

Water-related ecosystem services provide a broad range of benefits, including the mitigation of extreme hydrometeorological events, the provision of water for various uses, the support of tourism, and the provision of cultural services. This study assesses the perceptions and accessibility of these services among communities located near the Alafiarou and Okpara dams in Benin and the Bagré dam in Burkina Faso. The methodology involved designing and implementing a questionnaire in KoboCollect, with trained agents deployed to conduct data collection at each of the three sites. Data analysis indicates that respondents identified biodiversity conservation and the provision of drinking water as the most crucial ecosystem services. Over two-thirds of participants reported observing both positive and negative changes in the services provided by rivers and in socio-economic activities since the construction of the dams. While the majority noted improvements in agriculture, irrigation, water quality, fisheries, and flow rates, other changes included biodiversity loss, a decrease in vegetation cover (notably trees and shrubs), an increase in the population of mosquitoes and other insects, and a decline in fishery resources downstream. Despite these challenges, local communities were strongly willing to participate in initiatives aimed at protecting and restoring river ecosystems and their related services. Full article

Viral outbreaks have caused significant mortality and economic losses in aquaculture, highlighting the urgent need for effective therapies and a deeper understanding of antiviral and immune mechanisms in key species. This study investigates the constitutive and virus-induced antiviral responses in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) following infection with viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV). Trout (30 g) were infected by immersion with VHSV (TCID₅₀ = 10⁵ mL⁻¹) for two hours. Samples were collected at 24, 72, and 120 h post-infection to assess hematology, innate immunity, viral load, and transcriptomic response. At 24 h post-infection, no immune response or increase in viral load was detected, suggesting the host had not yet recognized the virus and was still in the incubation phase. By 72 h, viral replication peaked, with high viral loads observed in mucosal tissues (skin and gills) and immune organs (kidney, spleen, liver), alongside strong up-regulation of antiviral genes, such as viperin. This gene maintained high expression through the final sampling point, indicating its key role in the antiviral response. At this stage, reduced immune competence was observed, marked by elevated nitric oxide and circulating thrombocytes. At 120 h, modest increases in peripheral monocyte, plasma lysozyme, and peroxidase activity were detected; however, these responses were insufficient to reduce viral load, suggesting the resolution phase had not yet begun. In summary, while a limited immune response was observed by the end of the trial, the consistent antiviral activity of viperin from peak infection to 120 h post-infection underscores its importance in the defence against VHSV in rainbow trout. Full article

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article

Floods are among the most devastating hydrometeorological natural disasters worldwide, causing massive infrastructure and economic loss in low-lying, flood-prone developing countries like Bangladesh. Effective disaster mitigation relies on organized and detailed flood damage information to facilitate emergency evacuation, coordinate relief distribution, and formulate an effective disaster management policy. Nevertheless, the nation confronts considerable obstacles due to insufficient historical flood damage data and the underdevelopment of near-real-time (NRT) flood monitoring systems. This study addresses this issue by developing a replicable methodology for flood damage assessment and NRT monitoring systems. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we analyzed flood events from 2019 to 2023, integrating geospatial layers such as roads, cropland, etc. Analysis of flood events over the five-year period revealed substantial impacts, with 21.60% of the total area experiencing inundation. This flooding affected 6.92% of cropland and 4.16% of the population. Furthermore, 18.10% of the road network, spanning over 21,000 km within the study area, was also affected. This system has the potential to enhance emergency response capabilities during flood events and inform more effective disaster mitigation policies. Full article

Rural roads are critical for connecting isolated communities to essential services such as education and health and administrative services, as well as production and market opportunities in low-income countries. More than 70% of movements of people and goods in Sub-Saharan Africa are heavily reliant on rural transport systems, using both motorised but mainly alternative means of transport. However, rural roads often suffer from poor construction due to the use of low-strength, in situ soils and limited financial resources, leading to premature failures and subsequent traffic disruptions with significant economic losses. This study investigates the use of rice husk ash (RHA), a waste byproduct from rice production, as a sustainable supplement to Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) for soil stabilisation in order to increase durability and sustainability of rural roads, hence limit recurrent maintenance needs and associated transport costs and challenges. To conduct this study, soil samples collected from Mulungushi, Zambia, were treated with combinations of 6–10% OPC and 10–15% RHA by weight. Laboratory tests measured maximum dry density (MDD), optimum moisture content (OMC), and California Bearing Ratio (CBR) values; the main parameters assessed to ensure the quality of road construction soils. Results showed that while the MDD did not change significantly and varied between 1505 kg/m³ and 1519 kg/m³, the OMC increased hugely from 19.6% to as high as 26.2% after treatment with RHA. The CBR value improved significantly, with the 8% OPC + 10% RHA mixture achieving the highest resistance to deformation. These results suggest that RHA can enhance the durability and sustainability of rural roads and hence improve transport systems and subsequently improve socioeconomic factors in rural areas. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article

This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to explore their unique cyclical and macroeconomic sensitivities. This study looks at the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in relation to more general REIT indexes and the S&P 500 Index. The study reveals that monthly returns of Hospitality REITs increasingly move in tandem with the stock markets during financial crises, which reduces their historical function as portfolio diversifiers. Investing in Hospitality REITs exposes one to the hospitality sector; however, these investments carry notable risks and provide little protection, particularly during economic upheavals. Furthermore, the study reveals that Hospitality REITs underperform on a risk-adjusted basis relative to benchmark indexes. The monthly returns of REITs show significant volatility during the post-COVID-19 era, which causes return-to-risk ratios to be below those of benchmark indexes. Estimates from multi-factor models indicate negative alpha values across conditional models, indicating that macroeconomic variables cause unremunerated risks. This industry shows great sensitivity to market beta and size and value determinants. Hospitality REITs’ susceptibility comes from their showing the most possibility for exceptional losses across asset classes under Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CvaR) downside risk assessments. The findings have implications for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that Hospitality REITs may not offer consistent diversification benefits during downturns but can serve a tactical role in procyclical investment strategies. Full article

‘Mushy halibut syndrome’ (MHS) is associated with inferior fillet quality in Greenland halibut and is reported to occur in commercial catches across the North Atlantic. MHS constitutes a quality issue in fisheries and leads to economic losses and food wastage. Despite the known challenges associated with MHS, quantitative data on product properties are lacking, and yet they are crucial to assess actual losses and value-adding processing potential. As part of a larger effort to document and characterize MHS in Greenland halibut, we investigated how thaw drip loss (TDL), cooked drip loss (CDL), cooked yield, and tissue compressibility and elasticity differ between normal and ‘mushy’ halibut fillets. The fillets were sorted into three categories: normal, intermediate MHS, and severe MHS. The mean TDL and CDL increased more than three-fold in both MHS categories compared to normal fillets, while cooked yield decreased by approximately 20%. Fillets severely affected by MHS demonstrated high tissue compressibility (56%) and poor elasticity (46%), while the elasticity of the fillets belonging to the intermediate MHS category did not differ significantly from that of normal ones. These findings provide new insights into the product attributes of fillets affected by MHS, which are important for developing utilization and valorization strategies. Full article

Despite growing recognition of the role that social determinants of health (SDOHs) and health-related social needs (HRSNs) play in chronic disease, limited research has examined their associations with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in population-based studies. This cross-sectional study analyzed 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 37 U.S. states and territories to determine how financial hardship, food insecurity, employment loss, healthcare access barriers, and psychosocial stressors influence the prevalence of COPD. Weighted logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between COPD and specific SDOHs and HRSNs. Several individual SDOH and HRSN factors were significantly associated with COPD prevalence, with financial strain emerging as a particularly strong predictor. In models examining specific SDOH factors, economic hardships like inability to afford medical care were strongly linked to higher COPD odds. Psychosocial HRSN risks, such as experiencing mental stress, also showed moderate associations with increased COPD prevalence. These findings suggest that addressing both structural and individual-level social risks may be critical for reducing the prevalence of COPD in populations experiencing financial challenges. Full article

The article addresses the question of the relative importance of human population size and growth in relation to the environmental problems of planetary heating and biodiversity loss in the current, Anthropocene era. To what extent could policies to encourage lower fertility be justified, while observing that this subject is an inherently contested one. It is proposed that a helpful distinction can be made between specific threats to habitats and biodiversity, as opposed to those related to global energy use and warming. Pressures of over-population can be important in relation to the former. But with regard to the latter—rising per capita energy usage—reduced fertility has historically been positively, not negatively correlated. A case can be made that the high-fertility nations of sub-Saharan Africa could benefit from culturally respectful fertility reduction policies. However, where planetary heating is concerned, it is the hydrocarbon-based, per capita energy-consumption patterns of already low-fertility populations on the other five inhabited continents that is rather more critical. While it will be helpful to stabilise global human population, this cannot be viewed as a solution to the climate crisis problem of this century. That requires relentless focus on reducing hydrocarbon use and confronting the rising inequality since c.1980 that has been exacerbating competitive materialist consumerism. This involves the ideological negotiation of values to promote a culture change that understands and politically embraces a new economics of both human and planetary balance, equity, and distribution. Students of populations can contribute by re-assessing what can be the appropriate demographic units and measures for policies engaging with the challenges of the Anthropocene. Full article

Dark skies, a vital natural and cultural resource, have been increasingly threatened by light pollution due to rapid urbanization, leading to ecological degradation and biodiversity loss. As a key strategy for sustainable regional development, dark sky parks (DSPs) not only preserve nocturnal environments but also enhance livability by balancing urban expansion and ecological conservation. This study develops a novel framework for evaluating DSP suitability, integrating ecological and socio-economic dimensions, including the resource base (e.g., nighttime light levels, meteorological conditions, and air quality) and development conditions (e.g., population density, transportation accessibility, and tourism infrastructure). Using the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as a case study, we employ Delphi expert consultation, GIS spatial analysis, and multi-criteria decision-making to identify optimal DSP locations and prioritize conservation zones. Our key findings reveal the following: (1) spatial heterogeneity in suitability, with high-potential zones being concentrated in the GBA’s northeastern, central–western, and southern regions; (2) ecosystem advantages of forests, wetlands, and high-elevation areas for minimizing light pollution; (3) coastal and island regions as ideal DSP sites due to the low light interference and high ecotourism potential. By bridging environmental assessments and spatial planning, this study provides a replicable model for DSP site selection, offering policymakers actionable insights to integrate dark sky preservation into sustainable urban–regional development strategies. Our results underscore the importance of DSPs in fostering ecological resilience, nighttime tourism, and regional livability, contributing to the broader discourse on sustainable landscape planning in high-urbanization contexts. Full article

The efficiency decline of Francis turbines, a key component of hydroelectric power generation, presents a multifaceted challenge influenced by interconnected factors such as water quality, incidence angle, erosion, and runner wear. This paper is structured into two main sections to address these issues. The first section applies the Buckingham π theorem to establish a dimensional analysis (DA) framework, providing insights into the relationships among the operational variables and their impact on turbine wear and efficiency loss. Dimensional analysis offers a theoretical basis for understanding the relationships among operational variables and efficiency within the scope of this study. This understanding, in turn, informs the selection and interpretation of features for machine learning (ML) models aimed at the predictive maintenance of the target variable and important features for the next stage. The second section analyzes an extensive dataset collected from a Francis turbine in Colombia, a country that is heavily reliant on hydroelectric power. The dataset consisted of 60,501 samples recorded over 15 days, offering a robust basis for assessing turbine behavior under real-world operating conditions. An exploratory data analysis (EDA) was conducted by integrating linear regression and a time-series analysis to investigate efficiency dynamics. Key variables, including power output, water flow rate, and operational time, were extracted and analyzed to identify patterns and correlations affecting turbine performance. This study seeks to develop a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving Francis turbine efficiency loss and to propose strategies for mitigating wear-induced performance degradation. The synergy lies in DA’s ability to reduce dimensionality and identify meaningful features, which enhances the ML models’ interpretability, while ML leverages these features to model non-linear and time-dependent patterns that DA alone cannot address. This integrated approach results in a linear regression model with a performance (R²-Test = 0.994) and a time series using ARIMA with a performance (R²-Test = 0.999) that allows for the identification of better generalization, demonstrating the power of combining physical principles with advanced data analysis. The preliminary findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interplay of operational parameters, contributing to the optimization of turbine operation, efficiency enhancement, and lifespan extension. Ultimately, this study supports the sustainability and economic viability of hydroelectric power generation by advancing tools for predictive maintenance and performance optimization. Full article

Accurate estimation of available rooftop areas for PV power generation at the city scale is critical for sustainable energy planning and policy development. In this study, using publicly available high-resolution satellite imagery, rooftop solar energy potential in urban, rural, and industrial areas is estimated using deep learning models. In order to identify roof areas, high-resolution open-source images were manually labeled, and the training dataset was trained with DeepLabv3+ architecture. The developed model performed roof area detection with high accuracy. Model outputs are integrated with a user-friendly interface for economic analysis such as cost, profitability, and amortization period. This interface automatically detects roof regions in the bird’s-eye -view images uploaded by users, calculates the total roof area, and classifies according to the potential of the area. The system, which is applied in 81 provinces of Turkey, provides sustainable energy projections such as PV installed capacity, installation cost, annual energy production, energy sales revenue, and amortization period depending on the panel type and region selection. This integrated system consists of a deep learning model that can extract the rooftop area with high accuracy and a user interface that automatically calculates all parameters related to PV installation for energy users. The results show that the DeepLabv3+ architecture and the Adam optimization algorithm provide superior performance in roof area estimation with accuracy between 67.21% and 99.27% and loss rates between 0.6% and 0.025%. Tests on 100 different regions yielded a maximum roof estimation accuracy IoU of 84.84% and an average of 77.11%. In the economic analysis, the amortization period reaches the lowest value of 4.5 years in high-density roof regions where polycrystalline panels are used, while this period increases up to 7.8 years for thin-film panels. In conclusion, this study presents an interactive user interface integrated with a deep learning model capable of high-accuracy rooftop area detection, enabling the assessment of sustainable PV energy potential at the city scale and easy economic analysis. This approach is a valuable tool for planning and decision support systems in the integration of renewable energy sources. Full article