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Keywords = early warning systems

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24 pages, 3613 KB  
Article
Spatio-Temporal Cooperative Optimization of UAVs and WSNs for Urban Fire Monitoring
by Mingzhan Chen and Yaqin Xie
Drones 2026, 10(5), 320; https://doi.org/10.3390/drones10050320 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
To address challenges such as the sudden onset of urban fires, data synchronization delays in early warning systems, response lags, and insufficient routine monitoring, this paper proposes a Spatio-Temporal Collaborative Optimization for Joint Control and Scheduling (STCO-JCS) algorithm tailored for unmanned aerial vehicles [...] Read more.
To address challenges such as the sudden onset of urban fires, data synchronization delays in early warning systems, response lags, and insufficient routine monitoring, this paper proposes a Spatio-Temporal Collaborative Optimization for Joint Control and Scheduling (STCO-JCS) algorithm tailored for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and wireless sensor networks (WSNs). First, spatial autocorrelation analysis based on fire data classifies areas into ultra-high, high, medium, and low risk zones to assist in determining UAV access priorities. Second, we construct optimal inspection trajectories for the UAV by taking into account the inspection sequence and the city’s topography. By modeling the path deviations caused by wind interference and designing precision control algorithms, we improve the accuracy of the UAV’s flight path, ultimately achieving the goal of reducing UAV inspection time. Finally, by coordinating the spatiotemporal operations of drones and wireless sensor networks, we can achieve early detection and rapid response in high-risk fire zones, thereby reducing drone energy consumption while enhancing the efficiency of the UAV-WSN fire monitoring system. Simulation results demonstrate that under a 20-square-kilometer simulation area, STCO-JCS controls inspection paths within 14–17 km. In the multi-UAV scenario, the proposed method achieves approximately 3.17–9.66% improvement in energy efficiency, while in the single-UAV scenario, improvements of 10.83%, 50.54%, and 9.26% are observed in metrics. This provides effective decision support for the dynamic deployment of firefighting and rescue resources. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Path Planning, Trajectory Tracking and Guidance for UAVs: 3rd Edition)
26 pages, 2230 KB  
Article
Mechanism of Progressive Failure, Stress and Wave Velocity Misalignment in Sandstone
by Yue Shi, Jianping Zuo, Shankun Zhao, Yunjiang Sun, Hainan Gao, Yunpeng Li, Weiguang Ren and Zhibin Zhou
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(9), 4141; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16094141 (registering DOI) - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
The phenomenon of progressive failure, stress and wave velocity asynchrony in rocks can inform early warning approaches for rock stability. In this study, the Geotechnical Consulting and Testing Systems rock triaxial test system was used to investigate the compression failure of sandstone from [...] Read more.
The phenomenon of progressive failure, stress and wave velocity asynchrony in rocks can inform early warning approaches for rock stability. In this study, the Geotechnical Consulting and Testing Systems rock triaxial test system was used to investigate the compression failure of sandstone from the Ningtiaota mine under confining pressures of 0, 2, 5, and 10 MPa, with synchronous ultrasonic wave velocity monitoring. Based on Martin’s crack strain theory, the variation laws of mechanical and wave velocity response characteristics during progressive failure were obtained from two replicate tests per confining pressure. The results indicate that the normalized stress at peak wave velocity σvmaxP/σf ranges from 0.84 to 0.99, whereas the normalized strain ranges from 0.73 to 0.98. With increasing confining pressure, both the strain and stress differences between the peak wave velocity and the peak stress increase. Wave velocity change results from the combined action of effective stress (promoting velocity increase) and crack strain (leading to velocity decrease), causing the wave velocity peak to occur ahead of the stress peak. The normalized crack initiation stress σci/σf ranges from 0.55 to 0.68, and the normalized crack damage stress σcd/σf ranges from 0.79 to 0.91, consistent with literature values for intact sandstones. With increasing confining pressure, the proportion of the compaction stage remains unchanged, while the stable crack propagation stage decreases, and the elastic and unstable crack propagation stages increase. The stress-normalized difference between the peak wave velocity and the damage variable protrusion point is approximately 0.1σf, showing a slight decreasing trend with increasing confining pressure. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Energy Science and Technology)
25 pages, 14230 KB  
Article
EP-YOLO: An Enhanced Lightweight Model for Micro-Pest Detection in Agricultural Light-Trap Environments
by Yuyang Tang, Jiaxuan Wang, Wenxi Sheng and Jilong Bian
Sensors 2026, 26(9), 2607; https://doi.org/10.3390/s26092607 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
As food security gains increasing attention, automated pest monitoring is crucial for agricultural early warning systems. However, in practical light-trap capturing sensors, the extremely small scale of pests and complex background interference, such as unexpected reflection and occlusions, severely undermine the performance of [...] Read more.
As food security gains increasing attention, automated pest monitoring is crucial for agricultural early warning systems. However, in practical light-trap capturing sensors, the extremely small scale of pests and complex background interference, such as unexpected reflection and occlusions, severely undermine the performance of existing models, resulting in frequent missed and false detections. To deal with these challenges, this study proposes EP-YOLO, an enhanced lightweight detection architecture based on YOLOv8n. Specifically, to retain the spatial pixels of micro-targets during downsampling and isolate pest features while eliminating background noise without compromising channel information, the Spatial-to-Depth Convolution (SPD) module and the Efficient Multi-Scale Attention (EMA) module are introduced. We evaluate our model through experiments on Pest24, a dataset consisting of 24 tiny pest categories. The results demonstrate that EP-YOLO achieves a mAP@50 and mAP@50:95 of 70.5% and 47.3%, respectively, improving upon the baseline by 1.1% and 1.9%. Furthermore, EP-YOLO achieves a significant improvement in detecting certain extremely small pests. For example, Rice planthopper and Plutella xylostella show improvements of 8.4% and 3.1%, respectively, compared to the baseline. In conclusion, the physical limitations of detecting tiny pests are successfully overcome by EP-YOLO, providing a robust and deployable design for real-time agricultural monitoring systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Smart Agriculture)
21 pages, 4959 KB  
Article
Reservoir Inflow Risk-Window Early Warning Informed by Monitoring and Routing-Decay Modeling
by Boming Wang, Junfeng Mo, Ersong Wang, Zuolun Li and Yongwei Gong
Water 2026, 18(9), 1005; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18091005 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Against the backdrop of multi-source water transfers and increasingly frequent extreme rainfall, short-term deterioration of reservoir inflow water quality has become a key risk to intake safety, treatment operations, and urban water-supply security. Traditional assessments based on static thresholds and annual or seasonal [...] Read more.
Against the backdrop of multi-source water transfers and increasingly frequent extreme rainfall, short-term deterioration of reservoir inflow water quality has become a key risk to intake safety, treatment operations, and urban water-supply security. Traditional assessments based on static thresholds and annual or seasonal averages often fail to identify high-risk periods at the event scale. Using continuous online monitoring data from 2021 to 2024 for the inflow of Yuqiao Reservoir, Tianjin, China, this study developed a month-specific dynamic-threshold framework and green/yellow/red risk windows and integrated a reach-wise river–reservoir routing scheme; a two-box decay model; and a three-class risk trigger into a unified analytical framework for long-term background characterization, event propagation analysis, source-contribution interpretation, and early-warning evaluation. Results show that the permanganate index (CODMn) exhibits an overall stable-to-declining background with pronounced wet-season pulses, whereas total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) remain at moderate-to-high levels, with yellow/red risk windows clustering markedly in the wet season. In typical red and yellow events, nitrogen contributions from upstream control sections progressively accumulate toward the reservoir inlet along the river–reservoir cascade system, whereas in some events the residual contribution from unmonitored near-inlet inflows becomes dominant. The CODMn-based three-class trigger achieves an overall accuracy of approximately 71.5% and shows comparatively strong identification of yellow-level risk, while remaining conservative for red-level alarms. These findings indicate that coupling month-specific dynamic thresholds with event-scale routing-decay analysis and trigger-based classification can support inflow monitoring, intake-risk early warning, and coordinated operation of key upstream reaches and near-reservoir control zones in water-transfer–reservoir integrated systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Smart Design and Management of Water Distribution Systems)
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62 pages, 13254 KB  
Article
Risk of Powerline Failure Induced by Heavy Rainfall Hazards: Debris Flow Case Studies in Talamona and Campo Tartano
by Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi and Michele de Nigris
Climate 2026, 14(5), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14050090 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
The power system is the backbone of the energy network, and overhead lines are its vital structures. Weather threats may jeopardise the reliability of lines and make them a weak link. In particular, heavy rainfall episodes can cause failures, especially in mountain areas. [...] Read more.
The power system is the backbone of the energy network, and overhead lines are its vital structures. Weather threats may jeopardise the reliability of lines and make them a weak link. In particular, heavy rainfall episodes can cause failures, especially in mountain areas. Current climate changes may exacerbate the effects on the ground, intensifying rainfall episodes and increasing the frequency of extreme events. In this context, debris flows triggered by rather intense precipitation and characterised by fast kinematics can destroy pylons and electric connections, affecting the infrastructures not only in the upper ridges but also downstream across the fan apex, where powerlines are much more distributed. This study presents an in-depth back-analysis of two debris flow events triggered in concomitance with a heavy cloudburst that occurred in Talamona (Sondrio Province, Italy) in July 2008 and in Campo Tartano (Sondrio Province, Italy) in April 2024. These events hit onsite powerlines, causing blackouts and showing the potential vulnerabilities of the local electricity system. An analysis of rainfall-induced landslide failure is carried out using the numerical model CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) and MIST-DF (Modelling Impulsive Sediment Transport—Debris Flow) with the aim of reconstructing the dynamics of the first (i.e., Talamona) geo-hydrological event. Powerline vulnerability is also investigated against debris flow dynamics, discussing possible strategies to reduce pylon exposure and to increase the resilience of the local electro-energetic network. Since, under climate change scenarios, heavy rainfall episodes are projected to intensify, an alternative approach based on rainfall-threshold curves is presented and applied to both cases of study. The latter, already implemented for civil protection purposes, could be useful in early-warning procedures against potential debris flow hazards. For both methodologies, the findings from the study confirm the strength of the approaches and foster their application in different situations (back-analysis and early warning) to reduce powerlines’ geo-hydrological risks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydroclimatic Extremes: Modeling, Forecasting, and Assessment)
8 pages, 467 KB  
Proceeding Paper
A Low-Cost IoT Sensor for Streamflow Monitoring: A Proof-of-Concept Using Commercial off the Shelf (COTS) Hardware
by Konstantinos Ioannou, Stefanos Stefanidis and Ilias Karmiris
Environ. Earth Sci. Proc. 2026, 40(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/eesp2026040014 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Accurate measurement of streamflow is fundamental for water resources management, ecological conservation, flash flood early warning, and climate change impact studies. This study presents a proof of concept on the usage of Internet of Things (IoT) for automatic streamflow measurements using commercial off-the-shelf [...] Read more.
Accurate measurement of streamflow is fundamental for water resources management, ecological conservation, flash flood early warning, and climate change impact studies. This study presents a proof of concept on the usage of Internet of Things (IoT) for automatic streamflow measurements using commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware. The system is designed, implemented, and experimentally evaluated as a low-cost, solar-powered IoT device tailored to small-order streams and headwater tributaries. At its core is the Hall-effect YF-S201 flow sensor. Although primarily designed for closed-conduit applications, the sensor was tested in a controlled setup where stream water was diverted into a short pipe section, enabling continuous monitoring and calibration. This paper provides details on the design and validation of a low-cost (approximately 24 Euros), solar-powered streamflow measurement system based on a water flow sensor, using wireless communications, and cloud storage based on an ESP32 board, PostgreSQL, and a web interface. The device was tested in a simulated environment. Results indicate the proposed device reliably tracks flow variability, while offering portability, energy autonomy, and cost efficiency, and may serve as a feasible alternative for low-infrastructure, temporary deployments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The 9th International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences)
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24 pages, 6056 KB  
Article
Physical and Biogeochemical Drivers for Forecasting Red Tides in Southwest Florida: A Regionally Integrated Machine Learning Framework
by Matthew Duus, Ahmed S. Elshall, Michael L. Parsons and Ming Ye
Environments 2026, 13(5), 239; https://doi.org/10.3390/environments13050239 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis (K. brevis) present a persistent ecological and public health challenge across coastal Florida. Reliable bloom forecasting is critical for protecting public health, supporting coastal economies, and enabling timely management responses. This study develops [...] Read more.
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by Karenia brevis (K. brevis) present a persistent ecological and public health challenge across coastal Florida. Reliable bloom forecasting is critical for protecting public health, supporting coastal economies, and enabling timely management responses. This study develops a regionally integrated machine learning framework to predict weekly K. brevis bloom occurrence using environmental data from both the Peace and Caloosahatchee Rivers, combined with coastal bloom records from Southwest Florida and Tampa Bay to enhance the spatial and temporal continuity of the response record. A Random Forest classifier was trained on a multi-decadal dataset incorporating river discharge, nutrient concentrations (total nitrogen and total phosphorus), wind forcing, sea surface temperature, salinity, and sea surface height anomalies as a proxy for Loop Current variability. The model achieved strong predictive performance on a chronologically withheld test set, with an overall accuracy of ~90%, balanced accuracy of 87.6%, and ROC–AUC of 0.972, indicating strong discrimination between bloom and non-bloom conditions with high precision and recall for bloom events. Bloom timing and persistence were captured with strong agreement during ongoing bloom periods, while non-bloom conditions were identified with low false-positive rates. Feature-response analyses indicated that bloom probability increased most sharply under moderate discharge and nutrient conditions, with diminished sensitivity at higher extremes. Learning curve analysis demonstrated robust training performance and stable generalization, with validation accuracy plateauing near 84%, suggesting a data-limited ceiling on forecast skill. By aggregating nutrient inputs across multiple watersheds and integrating spatially aligned bloom observations, this study demonstrates the utility of multi-source machine learning frameworks for regional-scale HAB prediction. The results support the development of early warning tools and provide a reproducible foundation for evaluating how combined watershed loading and physical forcing are associated with K. brevis bloom occurrence in complex estuary systems with watershed and coastal coupling. Full article
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23 pages, 4683 KB  
Article
Method for Determining the Critical Value of Stratified Roof Separation in Mining Roadways Based on the Instability of Anchored Support Structures
by Zhiqiang Liu, Guodong Li, Pingtao Gao, Honglin Liu, Hongzhi Wang, Haotian Fu, Kangfei Zhang and Guodong Zeng
Symmetry 2026, 18(5), 706; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym18050706 - 23 Apr 2026
Abstract
To address the technical challenges of difficult deduction, limited field measurement, and ambiguous instability determination of roof separation critical values in mining roadways within the weakly cemented coal-bearing strata of Xinjiang, this paper proposes a discrete element method that integrates the fracture of [...] Read more.
To address the technical challenges of difficult deduction, limited field measurement, and ambiguous instability determination of roof separation critical values in mining roadways within the weakly cemented coal-bearing strata of Xinjiang, this paper proposes a discrete element method that integrates the fracture of anchor bolt and anchor cable support materials with the damage degree of the surrounding rock. Taking a specific mine in the Hosh Tolgay coalfield as the research object, a systematic study was conducted. The research process was as follows. (1) Model parameter calibration was performed. Intact rock parameters were obtained through laboratory basic mechanical tests, and rock mass parameters were corrected based on reduction empirical formulas and the Hoek–Brown criterion. Numerical model verification showed that the errors between the simulated and theoretical values of the elastic modulus, compressive strength, and tensile strength of the rock mass were all less than 10%, indicating that the corrected parameters are reasonable. (2) The critical damage values of the rock mass considering a non-constant confining pressure environment were proposed. Through triaxial compression simulations, the differential evolution patterns of rapid damage increase in sandy mudstone under low confining pressure and stable damage accumulation in coal were revealed, thereby clarifying the damage thresholds for rock mass instability under different confining pressures. (3) A large-scale model was established to analyze the evolution laws of the fracture field, support field, and displacement field of the roadway surrounding rock. A comprehensive determination method for the instability of the roof anchored bearing structure was proposed. By comparing the damage thresholds of the scaled rock mass and the roadway surrounding rock and analyzing the fracture conditions of the roadway support system, a dual-criterion consisting of surrounding rock damage and support material fracture was constructed. Based on this criterion theory, the critical values for deep and shallow separation were obtained. The research results indicate that the evolution patterns of damage in coal and sandy mudstone differ with confining pressure. The sandy mudstone layers in the shallow part of the roof are more sensitive to mining-induced unloading disturbances. Consequently, the surrounding rock damage and support fracture of the mine roof exhibit distinct distribution characteristics: the dominant failure of the roadway is shear failure, with wide-range coalescence of shallow fractures and gradual development of deep fractures, alongside the concentrated failure of shallow anchor bolts and partial failure of deep anchor cables. Based on the instability state of the roof monitoring zones, the critical value for shallow separation was determined to be 90.7 mm, and the critical value for deep separation was 129.03 mm. These results are very close to the field measured values, verifying the engineering applicability of the method. This paper reveals the damage characteristics of the rock mass and surrounding rock in weakly cemented strata, as well as the mechanism of roof separation initiation and evolution. The proposed method for determining critical values provides a scientific and feasible practical reference for the support optimization and monitoring and early warning of roadway roofs in weakly cemented strata, possessing significant engineering value for ensuring safe and efficient mine production. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Symmetry/Asymmetry in Geotechnical Engineering)
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30 pages, 7198 KB  
Article
Sentiment as Early Warning: A Systemic Risk Index for the Philippines
by Lizelle Ann V. Cruz
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(5), 302; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050302 - 22 Apr 2026
Abstract
Systemic risk remains a key concern for financial authorities, especially in emerging economies where traditional, low-frequency balance sheet indicators often lag rapidly changing market conditions. This study develops a high-frequency Systemic Risk Sentiment Index (SRSI) for the Philippines using news headlines from 2011 [...] Read more.
Systemic risk remains a key concern for financial authorities, especially in emerging economies where traditional, low-frequency balance sheet indicators often lag rapidly changing market conditions. This study develops a high-frequency Systemic Risk Sentiment Index (SRSI) for the Philippines using news headlines from 2011 to 2025 and an ensemble of domain-specific financial sentiment models. Results show that negative sentiment is mainly driven by external-sector developments, market volatility, and equity-related news, with surges aligning with global and domestic stress episodes. Event study analysis demonstrates that the SRSI captures sharp deteriorations in sentiment several weeks before major financial stress events, while Granger causality results indicate modest predictive power for domestic equity market movements. Overall, the SRSI is best viewed as a responsive, real-time barometer that complements conventional systemic risk measures. This study represents one of the initial efforts to construct a sentiment-based systemic risk indicator tailored to the Philippine financial system and offers a scalable, low-cost framework that other central banks may adopt to enhance real-time macro-financial surveillance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Risk)
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22 pages, 8468 KB  
Article
Smart Manhole Cover with Tumbler Structure Based on Dual-Mode Triboelectric Nanogenerators
by Bowen Cha, Jun Luo and Zilong Guo
Sensors 2026, 26(9), 2590; https://doi.org/10.3390/s26092590 - 22 Apr 2026
Abstract
Aiming at the technical pain points of traditional manhole covers with low intelligence high cost and excessive power consumption, this study designs a TENG-based alarm device to enhance the safety and maintenance efficiency of urban infrastructure. The device integrates a water immersion sensor [...] Read more.
Aiming at the technical pain points of traditional manhole covers with low intelligence high cost and excessive power consumption, this study designs a TENG-based alarm device to enhance the safety and maintenance efficiency of urban infrastructure. The device integrates a water immersion sensor and a displacement sensor enabling real-time status monitoring through a unique TENG mechanism. The solid–liquid mode water immersion sensor detects seepage through the triboelectrification effect. Water droplets contact electrodes on the surface of FEP film and generate electric energy to trigger the detection circuit. The displacement sensor adopts the independent layer mode of TENG and combines with a mechanical tumbler mechanism to realize displacement detection. External force-induced manhole cover displacement drives internal balls to roll and rub against electrodes. Electric energy is then generated to activate the detection circuit. On the basis of the two sensors, an efficient and reliable intelligent alarm system is constructed. The system receives and analyzes displacement and water immersion-sensing signals in real time. It rapidly identifies potential safety hazards including displacement offset water accumulation and leakage. Signal analysis and early warning prompts are completed synchronously. This system provides accurate and real-time data support for public facility monitoring, pipe network operation and maintenance, and regional security in smart cities. It helps achieve early detection and early disposal of hidden dangers and improves the intelligent and refined level of smart city monitoring. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Physical Sensors)
22 pages, 9602 KB  
Article
Demagnetization Fault Diagnosis of PMSMs with Multiple Stator Tooth Flux Detection Based on WT-CNN
by Yuan Mao, Yuanzhi Wang, Junting Bao, Xiaofei Luo and Youbing Zhang
World Electr. Veh. J. 2026, 17(5), 223; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj17050223 - 22 Apr 2026
Abstract
Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) have been widely used in new-energy vehicles and industrial servo systems. However, demagnetization faults (DMFs) can lead to severe issues, including torque ripple and magnetic field distortion. This paper proposes an intelligent diagnostic approach for DMFs based on [...] Read more.
Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) have been widely used in new-energy vehicles and industrial servo systems. However, demagnetization faults (DMFs) can lead to severe issues, including torque ripple and magnetic field distortion. This paper proposes an intelligent diagnostic approach for DMFs based on stator tooth flux (STF). A mathematical model of STF is formulated, and the magnetic flux change is measured using multiple sets of anti-series-connected detection coils (DCs). By combining finite element simulation with signal processing technology, we establish a comprehensive diagnostic system covering fault feature extraction, fault location identification, and severity assessment is established. The proposed method employs wavelet transform (WT) to extract time-frequency features of voltage signals and combines it with a convolutional neural network (CNN) to form the WT-CNN intelligent diagnosis model. Based on the extracted voltage signal features, the method achieves intelligent identification and visual localization of DMFs. Simulation results show that the proposed method achieves an accuracy above 80% for fault location identification (defined as sample-level multi-label classification accuracy across 12 PMs) and above 85% for demagnetization severity estimation (defined as classification accuracy across 9 severity degrees from 10% to 90%). These results provide an effective technical foundation for motor condition monitoring and fault early warning in simulation environments. Full article
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24 pages, 2039 KB  
Article
Water-Related Climate Stress and Food System Risk: A Cross-Quantilogram and Quantile Spillover Approach
by Nader Naifar
Resources 2026, 15(4), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/resources15040059 - 21 Apr 2026
Abstract
This paper investigates whether water-related climate stress predicts tail movements in food system assets and whether these spillovers vary across market regimes and investment horizons. Using daily data from January 2012 to January 2026, we examine the relationships among a water-risk proxy, agricultural [...] Read more.
This paper investigates whether water-related climate stress predicts tail movements in food system assets and whether these spillovers vary across market regimes and investment horizons. Using daily data from January 2012 to January 2026, we examine the relationships among a water-risk proxy, agricultural commodities, agribusiness, and food supply-chain equities, and a fertilizer-related proxy. The analysis combines the cross-quantilogram with quantile spillover analysis in the frequency domain, allowing us to capture directional dependence in the tails of the distribution and short- and long-run connectedness. To account for structural change, we employ data-driven break detection and identify three major regimes: a pre-disruption period, a COVID-related adjustment phase, and a broader food system stress regime from early 2022 onward. The findings indicate that water-related climate stress has its strongest predictive power in the tails, especially for agribusiness and fertilizer-related assets, while the broad agricultural commodity basket is comparatively less sensitive. Lower-tail dependence is predominantly negative and often significant, whereas upper-tail dependence is generally positive, indicating asymmetric transmission under extreme market conditions. The spillover results further show that connectedness in the water–food system is mainly short-run, with agribusiness and fertilizer channels acting as the primary conduits of transmission. From a practical perspective, these findings suggest that investors and risk managers can use water-related market signals as early warning indicators of stress in food system assets, while policymakers can strengthen food system resilience through integrated water management, input market monitoring, and supply chain adaptation measures. The findings suggest that water-related climate stress is not merely an environmental constraint but a systemic source of food system risk with implications for resilience, risk monitoring, and integrated water-agriculture governance. Full article
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23 pages, 10564 KB  
Article
Scenario-Specific Landslide Warning Thresholds from Uncertainty-Based Clustering of TANK Model Soil Water Index Responses in Republic of Korea
by Donghyeon Kim, Sukhee Yoon, Jongseo Lee, Song Eu, Sooyoun Nam and Kwangyoun Lee
Land 2026, 15(4), 688; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040688 - 21 Apr 2026
Abstract
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems require reliable estimation of soil moisture conditions. This study proposes a Soil Water Index (SWI) framework based on a three-stage TANK model. Through GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)-based behavioral parameter sampling and K-means clustering, SWI response characteristics were [...] Read more.
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems require reliable estimation of soil moisture conditions. This study proposes a Soil Water Index (SWI) framework based on a three-stage TANK model. Through GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)-based behavioral parameter sampling and K-means clustering, SWI response characteristics were classified into two representative scenarios: slow drainage (Scenario 1) and fast drainage (Scenario 2). Two-stage thresholds—Watch (α = 0.40 × SWIpeak) and Warning (β = 0.70 × SWIpeak)—were established from SWI rise profile analysis at 500 m and 5 km resolutions, providing 20–27 and 4–5 h of lead time, respectively. Verification against the July 2025 heavy rainfall event across multiple resolutions and spatial extents yielded Hit Rates of 0.984–1.000, while FAR (False Alarm Ratio) remained structurally high (0.607–0.648 for grids sharing the rainfall field with occurrence sites). These findings confirm that SWI serves as an effective regional-scale necessary condition indicator for landslide-triggering moisture, but FAR reduction requires integration with slope susceptibility information. Full article
20 pages, 8508 KB  
Article
SynthAirDrone: Synthetic Drone Detection Dataset for Airport-Runway Environments
by Jiuxia Guo, Jinxi Chen, Tianhang Zhang and Qi Feng
Drones 2026, 10(4), 306; https://doi.org/10.3390/drones10040306 - 20 Apr 2026
Abstract
Illegal drone intrusion near airport runways poses a critical threat to civil aviation safety, creating an urgent need for runway-side vision systems that can detect intruding UAVs early enough for safety warning and collision-risk mitigation. However, the development of such detectors is severely [...] Read more.
Illegal drone intrusion near airport runways poses a critical threat to civil aviation safety, creating an urgent need for runway-side vision systems that can detect intruding UAVs early enough for safety warning and collision-risk mitigation. However, the development of such detectors is severely hindered by the scarcity of annotated real-world data in this high-security scenario. To address this bottleneck, we present SynthAirDrone, the first high-fidelity synthetic dataset for UAV intrusion detection in airport runway environments, together with an intelligent data generation framework integrating scene-aware placement and multi-criteria quality assessment. The proposed method uses sky-region segmentation to guide physically plausible drone placement, and combines perspective-aware scaling, Poisson image editing, and a four-dimensional quality scoring system—covering sky overlap, lighting consistency, size plausibility, and edge continuity—to improve visual plausibility and semantic consistency. The resulting dataset comprises 6500 high-quality images, all annotated in YOLO-compatible format. Using the lightweight YOLOv11n model, we show that models trained solely on SynthAirDrone exhibit non-trivial cross-domain transfer to Anti-UAV, while mixed training with limited real data provides the strongest real-world performance under the present setting. Ablation studies further confirm that a quality threshold of τ=0.6 achieves the best trade-off between diversity and fidelity. Overall, this work delivers a reproducible and efficient synthetic data solution for UAV detector development in high-security, data-scarce airport-runway scenarios. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Artificial Intelligence in Drones (AID))
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24 pages, 43129 KB  
Article
Synergistic Identification of Rockburst Precursors Integrating Tensile Shear Fracture Evolution and Critical Slowing Down
by Peng Liang, Yao Lu, Zhilong He, Yongsheng Cao, Qiang Han and Qingli Sun
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(8), 3962; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16083962 - 19 Apr 2026
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Abstract
To investigate the crack evolution mechanisms and early-warning precursors of excavation-induced rockbursts, unloading rockburst simulation tests were conducted on granite using a true triaxial testing machine. Analysis of tensile and shear crack development shows that tensile cracking dominates the early stage, with the [...] Read more.
To investigate the crack evolution mechanisms and early-warning precursors of excavation-induced rockbursts, unloading rockburst simulation tests were conducted on granite using a true triaxial testing machine. Analysis of tensile and shear crack development shows that tensile cracking dominates the early stage, with the proportion of tensile cracks exceeding 50% (Ntr > 50%), whereas shear failure becomes predominant near final rupture, with the proportion of shear cracks exceeding 50% (Nsr > 50%). Based on this, the tensile–shear ratio (TSR) is proposed to quantify the dynamic evolution of both crack types. In the present tests, a sustained TSR below 1 was observed during the transition from tensile- to shear-dominated failure, suggesting that it may be a potential precursor to imminent rockburst under the current experimental conditions. According to critical slowing down (CSD) theory, both the autocorrelation coefficient and variance of acoustic emission (AE) parameters increase significantly prior to failure. In contrast, TSR shows earlier identifiable changes and is therefore more suitable for early-stage warning, whereas CSD indicators provide clearer signals as the system approaches failure. Additionally, granite exhibits a rapidly fluctuating decline in the AE b-value prior to failure, and the precursor points identified by TSR and CSD consistently fall within the b-value decreasing interval before peak stress. These results suggest that integrating TSR and CSD indicators may be useful for staged AE-based rockburst monitoring and early warning in deep underground engineering. Full article
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