Search Results (357)

Accurate day-ahead wind speed forecasting is essential for wind power forecasting and electricity market participation under increasing renewable energy penetration. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that combines raw global forecasts from GFS and IFS, the KMA KIM-RDAPS regional forecast, and dynamically downscaled GFS/IFS forecasts generated with alternative boundary-layer physics. Seven forecast members were synthesized using arithmetic averaging, performance-weighted averaging, and LightGBM-based machine learning (ML) regression. The framework was evaluated over Jeju Island, Republic of Korea, using 10 m Automatic Weather Station observations from 2023 to 2024 and 80 m meteorological mast observations from 2023. For the AWS evaluation, 2023 was used for training and validation, and 2024 was reserved for independent testing. The site-specific LightGBM synthesis achieved the most consistent improvement, reducing the median site-wise MAE across 31 AWS sites to 0.90 m s⁻¹, corresponding to a 39.2% improvement relative to the best non-downscaled member and 47.2% relative to the unweighted multi-model mean. In the 80 m mast-based diagnostic assessment, the same approach reduced derived normalized power MAE to 11.4%. These results indicate that ML synthesis of multi-source NWP forecasts can improve day-ahead wind speed and power-oriented forecast information over complex island terrain. Full article

Spatially explicit socioeconomic data are critical for regional analysis, yet they remain scarce at subnational scales in many African contexts. This study presents a transparent and reproducible open-data framework to generate high-resolution gridded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and derived socioeconomic and energy indicators. The approach combines gridded population and Night-Time Light (NTL) through the LitPop method to downscale provincial GDP to 1 km resolution for the Inkomati-Usuthu Water Management Area (IUWMA) in South Africa. The resulting GDP dataset is subsequently used as a spatial proxy to disaggregate compensation of employees, gross capital formation, fixed capital stock, net exports, gross operational surplus and sectoral Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC). Results show strong consistency with official provincial GDP totals, with deviations ±0.4% after 2017. In 2024, LitPop allocated 4.26 billion constant 2015 USD to the IUWMA, equivalent to 16% of Mpumalanga’s GDP, compared with 47.3% under area-based allocation and 51.3% under population-based allocation. These differences reveal the strong influence of spatially concentrated industrial and energy-intensive activity. The workflow provides a scalable and replicable solution to generate coherent gridded socioeconomic datasets for WEF Nexus modelling, although estimates remain proxy-based and sensitive to NTL-related biases, particularly the overrepresentation of highly illuminated industrial assets and the underrepresentation of less luminous activities. Full article

Transmission lines in Southwestern China are highly exposed to compound hazards induced by extreme winds and ice and snow conditions. This study assesses future changes in extreme wind hazards and their spatial overlap with baseline ice susceptibility under the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, using high-resolution dynamically downscaled climate projections. Compared to the historical period (1995–2014), the results indicate a marked intensification of extreme spring wind events over northwestern Southwestern China and the transitional zone between the Sichuan Basin and the Hengduan Mountains during 2041–2060. The occurrence frequency of wind speeds exceeding historical 50-year return levels is projected to increase by 5–10 times in complex terrain, particularly along the Golmud–Qaidam belt. The Comprehensive Extreme Wind Index (CEWI) identifies the Golmud–Wulanwusu–Qaidam river basin belt as the region of highest wind hazard amplification. Meanwhile, analysis of historical observations reveals that icing-prone conditions occur on more than 25 days each spring in the Nyenchentanglha Mountains and southeastern Tibetan Plateau valleys, establishing a baseline map of ice susceptibility. Due to methodological limitations in projecting future icing, this susceptibility map is used as a static indicator of ice-prone areas. By superimposing projected wind intensification onto the baseline ice susceptibility map, four relative hazard exposure categories are delineated. Regions of highest potential exposure are concentrated in the Bayan Har Mountains and portions of the western Hengduan Mountains, whereas northwestern basins are dominated by high wind risk alone. These results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in the relative amplification of compound hazards under future warming and provide a scenario-informed scientific basis for prioritizing regions in disaster risk reduction and resilient planning of transmission infrastructure in mountainous regions. Full article

A globally applicable and fully automated simulation method based on satellite-derived Earth Observation (EO) data and global circulation models was developed and validated. Inputs to the simulation are DSM/DTM layers, surface roughness layer, forest canopy layer, and single-level point data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis (ECMWF ERA5, a global circulation model produced by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)). High-resolution roughness length maps are produced by deep learning from optical satellite data. Velocity fields are predicted by fluid dynamics simulations in OpenFOAM using the IDDES turbulence model, a 3D resolved tree canopy implemented as isotropic momentum sinks, and a corrector step based on sub-grid-scale dynamic downscaling of ERA5 data. No calibration data from wind measurements close to the target are necessary to achieve results accurate enough for site assessments and wind park planning. The presented method is suitable for the prediction of average wind speeds and average power densities in complex terrain with high ruggedness indices for WEC (wind energy converter) installations closer to the ground and at hub heights of typical large-scale WECs. Full article

The preparation for next-generation Earth Observation missions, such as the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Copernicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission for the Environment (CHIME) and Land Surface Temperature Monitoring (LSTM), requires robust pre-launch proxy datasets. Because current simulation methodologies frequently rely on isolated, platform-specific approaches, this study proposes a comprehensive, unified multisensor framework capable of dynamically generating operationally realistic CHIME and LSTM datasets from diverse airborne and satellite sources. Three distinct processing pipelines were established. For hyperspectral data simulation, precursor satellite imagery (PRISMA and EnMAP) and high-resolution airborne measurements (HySpex) were harmonized to CHIME’s 30 m specifications utilizing Spectral Response Function (SRF) adjustments, Point Spread Function (PSF) spatial resampling, and 6S atmospheric radiative transfer modeling. For thermal data simulation, archive Landsat 8/9 and ASTER imagery were transformed into LSTM’s target 50 m, 5-band configuration using a synergistic two-step approach: a physics-based Spectral Super-Resolution (SSR) module followed by an AI-driven Spatial Super-Resolution (SpSR) transformer network. Evaluated across highly diverse inland, coastal, and riverine testbeds in Italy, the simulated products demonstrated high spectral, spatial, and radiometric fidelity. While inherently constrained by the native spectral ranges of the input sensors and by the current lack of absolute on-orbit mission data for validation, the downscaled images closely reproduced complex thermal patterns and water-quality gradients. Ultimately, this scalable framework provides the remote sensing community with early access to representative datasets and mission performance assessments, while accelerating pre-launch algorithm development and testing for environmental monitoring applications—particularly those focused on water discharges. Full article

The wave energy resource along the Azores coast is evaluated for the present (1990–2019) and future (2030–2059) periods using the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH III, forced by winds and sea-ice cover from the RCP8.5 EC-Earth integration dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results indicate that the region is characterized by a high-energy wave climate, with mean wave power values typically ranging between 30 and 40 kW/m. A statistical comparison between the two periods shows a moderate reduction in wave energy potential under future conditions, with strong spatial variability. The performance of four wave energy converters (AquaBuoy, Wavestar, Oceantec, and Atargis) is analyzed, revealing significant differences in energy production and capacity factor depending on device–site matching. A techno-economic evaluation is performed by estimating the LCOE, accounting for capital expenditure, operational costs, device lifetime, and annual energy production (AEP). The results demonstrate that economic performance is primarily driven by energy production rather than capital cost alone, and that wave energy exploitation in the Azores remains viable under near-future climate conditions. Full article

In the last two decades, the utilization of solar energy has been growing rapidly worldwide, mainly due to the increasing adoption of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Since solar energy is one of the most weather-dependent renewable energy sources, an increasing number of meteorological studies have focused on PV potential (PV_pot) and its projected changes under global warming. GCM outputs disseminated through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are often applied in energy-related urban climate studies, as they can be downscaled either statistically or dynamically. It is essential to evaluate raw (not bias-corrected) GCM data, which helps to determine the uncertainties in the GCM simulations before downscaling. Despite their coarse resolution, some studies even rely directly on the GCM grid cell time series to represent individual locations. Accordingly, this study evaluates 10 CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs with respect to some atmospheric variables (air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed, which are the primary drivers of PV_pot) in four lowland grid cells representing four major urban areas in Central and Southeast Europe: Belgrade (Serbia), Budapest (Hungary), Vienna (Austria), and Prague (Czechia). The use of solar energy has increased significantly in most of these regions in recent years; however, it remains less studied than in Western Europe. ERA5 reanalysis is used as the reference dataset. We analyzed the boreal summer (JJA) days of three overlapping 30-year time periods: 1971–2000, 1981–2010, and 1991–2020. Our main findings are as follows: GCMs tend to overestimate solar radiation and underestimate maximum near-surface air temperature relative to ERA5 in all time periods and in all the four urban areas, which leads to a significant overestimation of the number of JJA days with high PV_pot (PV_pot,90). PV_pot,90 is increasing from 1971–2000 to 1991–2020 in the vast majority of GCMs, in all the four regions. EC-Earth3 and its different configurations (EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3-CC) are considered the most accurate GCMs relative to ERA5. Full article

Large-scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment in arid deserts may alter land–atmosphere interactions and influence groundwater systems, yet such impacts remain poorly quantified due to limited high-resolution observations. To overcome the coarse spatial resolution of GRACE data, this study develops a CNN-LSTM-Attention deep learning framework to downscale terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) from 0.25° × 0.25° to 0.1° × 0.1° over the Huadian PV base in the Tengger Desert, China, during 2004–2024. Groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) were derived using a water-balance approach, and piecewise linear regression was applied to detect trend shifts associated with PV development. Results show a persistent decline in TWSA and GWSA before 2022, followed by short-term recovery signals afterward. Groundwater responses exhibit greater magnitude and delayed behavior relative to soil moisture. Spatial analysis reveals stronger variability and more frequent deficits in the western subregion, indicating intra-base heterogeneity. A seasonal phase analysis identifies an approximately six-month lag between soil moisture and groundwater, highlighting constraints from deep vadose-zone processes. The findings suggest that groundwater dynamics reflect the combined effects of climate variability, infiltration lag, and PV-related land surface modification rather than a single driver. This study demonstrates the potential of deep-learning-based GRACE downscaling for groundwater monitoring in human-modified arid regions and provides insights for sustainable water management under renewable energy development. Full article

Accurate wind flow prediction is essential for various applications, including the placement of wind turbines and a multitude of environmental assessments. Traditionally this can be achieved by using time-consuming computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations on reanalysis data. This study explores the performance of an autoencoder (AE) and a variational autoencoder (VAE) in approximating downscaled wind speed and direction using real-world reanalysis data and reference geo- and vegetation data. The AE model was trained for 2000 epochs and demonstrates the ability to replicate wind patterns with a mean absolute error (MAE) of approximately −0.9. However, the AE model exhibited a consistent underestimation of wind speeds and a directional shift of approximately 10 degrees compared to CFD reference simulations. The VAE model produced visually improved results, capturing complex wind flow structures more accurately than the AE model. It mainly achieves better local accuracy and a reduced variance of the results. The overall result suggests that while autoencoders can approximate wind flow patterns, challenges remain in capturing the full variability of wind speeds and directions with sufficient precision. The study highlights the importance of balancing reconstruction accuracy and latent space regularization in VAE models. Future work should focus on optimizing model architecture and training strategies to enhance accuracy, prediction reliability and generalizability across diverse wind conditions and various locations. Full article

A comprehensive characterization of the wave climate on the coast at Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico, based on an 11-year hindcast (2008–2018), was performed using a hybrid approach that integrates hydrodynamic numerical models with machine learning techniques. Wave conditions were analyzed at 23 nearshore sites, including headlands, outer beaches, and sheltered beaches. The effects of the complex coastal morphology on wave propagation were evident, especially regarding storm waves. Two distinct wave climates were seen: a low-energy regime in the dry season (November–April) and a more energetic regime in the rainy season (May–October). Spatial variability was greatly modulated by headlands, bays, and port infrastructure, leading to sharp local contrasts in wave height, slope, and wave power. For instance, mean wave power ranged from 9.34 kW/m at exposed sites such as El Faro de Campos to only 0.36 kW/m near sheltered areas, such as San Pedrito beach. From these findings, it is clear that a regional scale description of the wave climate is insufficient when assessing coastal vulnerability in this morphologically complex area. The new dataset is a valuable baseline for use in coastal management, port planning, and risk assessments for Manzanillo, which is one of Mexico’s most important ports. Full article

Wetlands in semi-arid regions are critical for ecological resilience but are increasingly degraded. Ecological water consumption (EWC), reflecting wetland water demand, is essential for understanding wetland sustainability. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of marsh wetland EWC in the Bashang Plateau, China, from 1986 to 2021, and identified its main driving forces. A Random Forest model was used to downscale GLASS evapotranspiration (ET) product from 0.05° to a 250 m monthly resolution, showing good agreement with flux measurements (RMSE = 21.94 mm, R² = 0.83). Marsh wetland EWC was estimated using the downscaled ET and land cover data, and Granger causality analysis was applied to explore driving mechanisms. Results indicate that the marsh wetland area declined by 74% (from 552.81 to 143.69 km²) while forestland expanded by 217%. Correspondingly, marsh wetland EWC decreased by 67.2%, from 125 to 41 million m³. Precipitation and surface water area were identified as direct drivers of marsh wetland EWC decline, whereas groundwater table, forest EWC, and cropland EWC acted as indirect drivers. While cropland water use has been widely reported as an important factor, results suggest that increased forest EWC associated with large-scale afforestation contributed considerably to groundwater table decline, thereby influencing marsh wetland EWC. Full article

Drought is expected to intensify under climate change, posing significant risks to Mediterranean agroecosystems. This study provides long-term projections of drought and wetness conditions for three representative Mediterranean regions—Eastern Mancha (Spain), Sidi Bouzid Governorate (Tunisia), and the Beqaa Valley (Lebanon)—to support climate-resilient planning. Future monthly precipitation (2020–2050) was dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP4.5 scenario, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) was subsequently applied to quantify drought severity at annual and monthly scales. By integrating dynamically downscaled WRF projections with pixel-based SPI analysis across three spatially distinct Mediterranean regions, the study provides a novel, spatially explicit and comparative framework for assessing future drought and wetness extremes in support of climate-resilient planning. The results reveal spatial variability and moderate temporal fluctuations across the three regions, reflected in differing timings and intensities of their driest and wettest hydrological years. Spain is projected to experience its driest hydrological year in 2046–2047, Tunisia in 2030–2031, and Lebanon in 2047–2048. The wettest years are projected to occur in 2045–2046 for Spain and Tunisia, and in 2028–2029 for Lebanon. Although extreme drought events are not widely anticipated, localised severe dry periods emerge in many parts of the study areas. while in Lebanon, these conditions also extend into the winter and spring. These findings underscore the need for spatially targeted adaptation rather than uniform regional measures. Identifying both driest and wettest projected years enhances preparedness, informs water-resource optimisation, and supports agricultural land-use planning, especially in areas with favourable future climatic conditions. Integrating drought projections into multi-hazard planning (i.e., drought and floods) frameworks can further strengthen territorial resilience in regions facing increasing climate-related extremes. Full article

Surface soil moisture (SSM) serves as a critical indicator for regional water cycles, agricultural management, and drought monitoring. However, existing the SMAP data suffers from limited spatial resolution, making it challenging to meet the demands of large-scale, high-resolution applications. Taking Henan Province, located in east-central China with a continental monsoon climate and marked seasonal variability, as the study area, this research integrates multi-source data to develop a seasonal modeling strategy. Based on stacking ensemble learning, the SSM downscaling inversion model (SOBLE-Top5) is constructed. SHAP value attribution analysis is employed to reveal the primary drivers of seasonal dynamics. The results indicate: (1) The SSM exhibits distinct seasonal characteristics. Compared to the all-season modeling, the RMSE and R² metrics significantly improve during spring and summer. The winter ET and RF models show an approximately 9–14% higher R² and a 47–50% lower RMSE. (2) The SOBLE-Top5 strategy achieved up to a 4.65% higher R² and a 21.22% lower RMSE compared to the optimal single base model. (3) Spatial variations in the SSM characteristics reveal stable performance during the winter. The spring saw slight SSM declines in the northern regions due to rising temperatures. The study area reached its annual low (<0.08 m³/m³) in May–June. Driven by flood season precipitation, July–August witnessed local increases exceeding 52%. The autumn exhibited a stable-then-rising trend with pronounced north–south gradient characteristics. (4) The SHAP analysis indicates that the winter SSM is primarily controlled by bulk density and clay content. The spring SSM is most influenced by LST, followed by bulk density. The summer and the autumn SSM are synergistically driven by multiple factors including elevation, temperature, and precipitation, with the summer precipitation exerting the most significant impact on instantaneous SSM variations. Full article

Polar sea ice is undergoing rapid change, with recent record-low extents in both hemispheres, raising the demand for skillful predictions from days to seasons for navigation, ecosystem management, and climate risk assessment. Accurate sea ice prediction is essential for understanding coupled climate processes, supporting safe polar operations, and informing adaptation strategies. Physics-based numerical models remain the backbone of operational forecasting, but their skill is limited by uncertainties in coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere processes, parameterizations, and sparse observations, especially in the marginal ice zone and during melt seasons. Statistical and empirical models can provide useful baselines for low-dimensional indices or short lead times, yet they often struggle to represent high-dimensional, nonlinear interactions and regime shifts. This review synthesizes recent progress of DL for key sea ice prediction targets, including sea ice concentration/extent, thickness, and motion, and organizes methods into (i) sequential architectures (e.g., LSTM/GRU and temporal Transformers) for temporal dependencies, (ii) image-to-image and vision models (e.g., CNN/U-Net, vision Transformers, and diffusion or GAN-based generators) for spatial structures and downscaling, and (iii) spatiotemporal fusion frameworks that jointly model space–time dynamics. We further summarize hybrid strategies that integrate DL with numerical models through post-processing, emulation, and data assimilation, as well as physics-informed learning that embeds conservation laws or dynamical constraints. Despite rapid advances, challenges remain in generalization under non-stationary climate conditions, dataset shift, and physical consistency (e.g., mass/energy conservation), interpretability, and fair evaluation across regions and lead times. We conclude with practical recommendations for future research, including standardized benchmarks, uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasting, physics-guided training and neural operators for long-range dynamics, and foundation models that leverage self-supervised pretraining on large-scale Earth observation archives. Full article

Validation of ICON model configurations optimized over a limited domain is essential before accepting new semi-empirical parameters that influence the behavior of subgrid-scale schemes. Because such parameters can modify the dynamics of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in highly nonlinear ways, we analyze one season of forecasts (December 2022, January and February 2023) generated with the NWP ICON-LAM through the lens of machine learning–based diagnostics as a complement to traditional evaluation metrics. The goal is to extract physically interpretable information on the model behavior induced by the optimized parameters. This work represents the first part of a wider study exploring machine learning tools for model validation, focusing on two specific approaches: Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), which are widely used in meteorology and climate science, and autoencoders, which are increasingly adopted for their nonlinear feature extraction capability. In this first part, EOF analysis is used as the primary tool to decompose weather fields from observed reanalysis and forecast datasets. Hourly 2-m temperature forecasts for winter 2022–2023 from multiple regional ICON configurations are compared against downscaled ERA5 data and in situ observations from ground station. EOF analyses revealed that the optimized configurations demonstrate a high skill in predicting surface temperature. From the signal error decomposition, the fourth EOF mode is effective particularly during night-time hours, and contributes to enhancing the performance of ICON. Analyses based on autoencoders will be presented in a companion paper (Part II). Full article