Yamdrok Lake, a typical closed inland lake located in the southern Tibetan Plateau, is highly sensitive to climate change and human activities. Although previous studies have reported a declining lake-level trend, the mechanisms underlying the sharp decline since 2005 remain debated. In particular,
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Yamdrok Lake, a typical closed inland lake located in the southern Tibetan Plateau, is highly sensitive to climate change and human activities. Although previous studies have reported a declining lake-level trend, the mechanisms underlying the sharp decline since 2005 remain debated. In particular, the disturbance effects of human activities, such as pumped-storage hydropower operations, have not been rigorously characterized, and quantitative attribution under the combined influence of multiple factors remains limited. This study aims to systematically identify the drivers of lake-level changes in Yamdrok Lake during 2000–2023 and to quantify the relative statistical explanatory power of climate change and human activities on lake-level fluctuations using Shapley R
2 decomposition. We integrated 24 years of hydrological, meteorological, remote-sensing, and hydropower-operation data. Cumulative anomaly analysis, multiple linear regression, and Shapley R
2 decomposition were employed to establish an attribution model incorporating rainfall, evaporation, temperature, glacier meltwater, and hydropower operation intensity, represented by annual electricity generation. The relative statistical explanatory power of these factors with respect to interannual lake-level changes (ΔH) was quantified using Shapley R
2 decomposition for different periods, representing the proportion of variance in ΔH explained by each factor within the regression framework rather than absolute physical volumetric contributions, including hydropower-operation and non-operation periods. Results show that the annual mean water level of Yamdrok Lake declined significantly during 2000–2023, with a cumulative decrease of 5.1 m and an accelerated decline after 2005. The dominant controls shifted from an early rainfall–evaporation regime to a systematic water deficit dominated by rising temperature. Temperature increased significantly at a rate of 0.03 °C yr
−1 (
p < 0.05) and constituted the fundamental driver of the long-term lake-level decline. During the hydropower-operation period (2000–2014), the five factors jointly explained 84.51% of the variance in interannual lake-level changes, with hydropower operation intensity (32.32%), temperature (27.98%), and glacier meltwater (26.54%) being the three largest contributors in terms of statistical explanatory power. During the non-operation period (2015–2023), temperature consistently remained the most important individual contributor, accounting for 34.3–49.5% of the explained variance depending on whether missing glacier meltwater data for 2022–2023 were extrapolated or excluded from the analysis. Warming affects lake levels through two pathways: it directly enhances lake-surface evaporation and simultaneously promotes continuous glacier retreat within the basin. Glacier area decreased by approximately 30.5 km
2 between 2000 and 2021, thereby weakening the long-term resilience of glacier-meltwater recharge. Consequently, the lake system has shifted from a dynamic balance toward a persistent state in which water losses exceed water inputs. Overall, lake-level changes in Yamdrok Lake represent the combined effects of progressive warming-induced water deficits and superimposed disturbances associated with hydropower operations. By extending observations to 2023 and incorporating dynamic glacier-area and hydropower-operation indicators, this study clarifies the temporal shift in dominant drivers, revises the previous interpretation that attributed lake-level decline primarily to reduced rainfall, and provides a scientific basis for lake-water-resource security assessment and climate-change adaptation on the Tibetan Plateau.
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