Search Results (3,044)

Under global climate change, frequent droughts threaten ecosystem functions, but how drought characteristics affect ecosystem resilience remains unclear. Focusing on the Dongjiang River Basin, China, we identified drought events at an 8-day scale from 2000–2024 using multi-source remote sensing and reanalysis data. The water use efficiency-based resilience index (R_de) was calculated, and a random forest model quantified the contributions of 21 potential driving factors. The model explained 68% of R_de variance (R² = 0.68, RMSE = 0.12). Downward shortwave radiation was the primary factor, followed by antecedent water use efficiency and soil moisture anomaly, with drought intensity and air temperature ranking fourth and fifth. All dominant factors exhibited nonlinear threshold effects: R_de decreased significantly after radiation exceeded ~110 W·m⁻²·(8d)⁻¹; R_de declined when standardized soil moisture anomaly fell below −2.0; and R_de increased sharply when drought intensity exceeded 12%. Drought intensity far outweighed duration and severity, establishing it as the key drought attribute. This study reveals the dominant drivers and their thresholds governing ecosystem resilience in the Dongjiang River Basin, providing quantifiable indicators for ecological drought early warning. Full article

Climate change significantly affects hydrological responses, yet studies addressing future water availability in the Paraopeba River Basin (PRB), an important tributary of the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil, remain limited, particularly under CMIP6 scenarios and using distributed hydrological modeling approaches. In this context, this study evaluated the hydrological responses of the PRB, under climate change using the MHD-INPE. Future projections were based on an ensemble of seven climate models from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 collection, considering a baseline period (1992–2014), three future periods 17(2040–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) and two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The model satisfactorily reproduced observed streamflow during the baseline period. Under the SSP585 scenario, the projections indicate stronger alterations in water availability, with a potential intensification of flood and drought events, as reflected by reductions in minimum streamflows (Q₉₀) and increases in maximum streamflows (Q₁₀), particularly in sub-basins 4 and 5, where Q₉₀ reductions approach 30% and Q₁₀ increases reach 11.7%. Additionally, a decrease in Q_7,10 values was observed, which enabled the analysis of the Conflict Index (Icg), indicating that water withdrawals currently granted may exceed the limits established by existing legislation in future scenarios (Igc > 1). Full article

Fungal endophytes are microorganisms that inhabit plant tissues without causing disease and emerge as critical mediators of plant stress tolerance, nutrient acquisition, and ecosystem resilience under diverse climate change scenarios. Their unique position within the host allows them to modulate physiological responses more closely than external microbiota. This review explores how endophytic fungi contribute to plant adaptation under climate-induced stresses such as heat, salinity, drought, pollution, and nutrient limitation, with a focus on molecular crosstalk, functional trait modules, and metabolic trade-offs. Key findings emphasize multilayered signaling systems, including MAMP/DAMP recognition, phytohormone regulation, immune tuning, ROS dynamics, and effector deployment, while emerging mechanisms such as cross-kingdom RNA and extracellular vesicle (EV)-mediated exchange are discussed as promising but currently limited in empirical validation within many endophytic systems. Endophytes also enhance nutrient exchange through conditional carbon-for-benefit trade and may shape rhizosphere microbiota and soil activities through plant-mediated inputs. Integrative multi-omics approaches provide predominantly correlational insights into the mechanistic basis of these effects, linking molecular function to ecosystem and community outcomes. These insights have potential applications in climate-resilient agriculture, phytoremediation, and ecosystem restoration; however, their large-scale implementation requires further field-based validation and context-specific assessment. Future priorities should focus on trait-based selection, ecological modeling, and biosafety evaluation to translate microbial functions into reliable field-level strategies that support sustainable crop performance under accelerating environmental stress. Full article

MLO (Mildew Resistance Locus O) genes encode seven-transmembrane proteins that function as critical regulators of powdery mildew resistance and abiotic stress responses. Despite their established importance, the MLO gene family in Gossypium hirsutum L. has not been systematically investigated under salt stress conditions. Here, we performed genome-wide identification of 46 GhMLO members using Hidden Markov Model and BLAST searches based on the latest cotton genome assembly. Phylogenetic analysis classified these genes into four distinct subfamilies. Transmembrane topology and conserved domain analyses revealed that all GhMLO proteins contain typical MLO domains and transmembrane structures, maintaining high structural similarity with dicotyledonous model plants. Synteny analysis demonstrated that the expansion of the GhMLO family was primarily driven by segmental and tandem duplications. Integration of transcriptomic data from the COTTONOMICS database revealed tissue-specific expression patterns, with higher transcript abundance in receptacles, stems, and roots, but lower levels in stamens and petals. Salt, drought, and cold stress treatments induced upregulation of GhMLO family members, with most genes showing increased expression over time. RT-qPCR analysis validated that five candidate GhMLO genes were significantly upregulated under salt stress. In summary, this study provides a comprehensive genome-wide characterization of the GhMLO gene family, elucidating their phylogenetic relationships and expression dynamics, which establishes a theoretical basis for identifying key regulatory genes involved in abiotic stress responses and offers novel genetic resources for improving stress tolerance in cotton molecular breeding. Full article

The Loess Plateau has experienced persistent vegetation greening over the past two decades, yet this recovery has occurred under a concurrent intensification of atmospheric evaporative demand and drying. This raises a key land–atmosphere question: which hydroclimatic processes most strongly constrain greening, and where do vegetation responses shift across environmental regimes? To address this issue, we integrated spatiotemporal trend analysis, Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping (GCCM)-based directional attribution, and an interpretable machine-learning framework combining Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to diagnose the dominant controls and threshold-like response patterns of vegetation activity. Using 1 km kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) and eight hydroclimatic variables during 2000–2019, we found that regionally averaged kNDVI increased from 0.099 in 2000 to 0.164 in 2019, with a significant trend of 0.003 year⁻¹, and greening trends covered 65.503% of the Loess Plateau. Over the same period, Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) increased from 0.142 to 0.275 kPa (+0.133 kPa), indicating that vegetation recovery did not occur under a more humid atmospheric background. GCCM results consistently showed stronger directional influence from hydroclimatic drivers to kNDVI than the reverse, with evaporation and thermal conditions, especially Tmin, emerging as the dominant constraints, followed by Tmax, VPD, and wind speed, whereas precipitation showed comparatively weaker recoverable influence. The tuned XGBoost model achieved strong out-of-sample performance (R² = 0.9611, RMSE = 0.0188, MAE = 0.0131), and SHAP revealed clear nonlinear thresholds: evaporation and Tmin shifted into persistently positive contribution regimes beyond 302 mm and −17.6 °C, respectively; Tmax became predominantly inhibitory beyond −1.9 °C, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) exhibited a multi-stage non-monotonic transition around −0.7. These results provide a coherent evidence chain linking directional influence, relative contribution, and threshold boundaries, offering quantitative support for identifying climate-sensitive zones and restoration risk regimes under continued warming and rising atmospheric dryness. Full article

Soil drought impact on irrigation areas is not merely a single reduction in crop yields, but rather a chain reaction that occurs from multiple dimensions including crop growth, water resource allocation, soil environment, operation of irrigation area projects, agricultural economy and ecosystems. The changing trend and mutation characteristics of soil drought are unclear in the People’s Victory Canal Irrigation District (PVCID). The Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and the breaks for additive seasons and trend (BFAST) decomposition algorithm were adopted, combined with the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, to explore spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, driving factors and response to meteorological drought of soil drought. During the research period, the area percentage of SSMI showing a downward trend was 97.30%. The most severe soil drought occurred in 2019. In addition, the optimal trivariate combination is precipitation, evapotranspiration, and air temperature. This study has clarified the spatio-temporal evolution laws and driving mechanisms of soil drought in the PVCID, providing an important theoretical basis for the early warning, prevention and control of soil drought and the adaptive management of the ecosystem. Full article

Blackberry cultivars typically exhibit high fruit antioxidant levels but poor drought tolerance compared with their wild Rubus relatives. Few studies have employed wild Rubus species in hybridization programs aimed at improving drought tolerance and fruit quality in cultivated blackberries. In this study, we comprehensively assessed growth traits, fruit characteristics, and drought tolerance in 108 F₁ progenies derived from a cross between the cultivated blackberry ‘Prime-Ark^® Freedom’ and the wild species Rubus chingii. Correlation analysis of fruit morphological traits indicated significant positive associations among single fruit weight, fruit thickness, and fruit diameter, reflecting coordinated fruit development. Among the nutritional quality traits evaluated, both anthocyanin and total phenolic contents exhibited transgressive segregation. Specifically, 47.78% of the progeny demonstrated higher anthocyanin content, and 45.56% exhibited greater total phenolic content than the higher-performing parent. The corresponding genetic transmission ability (Ta) reached 139.23% and 101.24% for these traits, respectively, indicating pronounced additive genetic effects and high heritability. After a 7-day drought treatment, the hybrid progenies exhibited significant heterosis in catalase (CAT) activity, with 24.07% exceeding the higher-parent value. In contrast, proline content exhibited high broad-sense heritability (H² = 0.990) and considerable genetic variation. Under drought stress, all chlorophyll components were strongly positively correlated. Using principal component analysis (PCA), we established comprehensive evaluation models for fruit quality and drought tolerance. Based on these models, seven accessions—H3, H4, H8, H10, H11, H14, and H25—were identified as superior in both drought tolerance and fruit quality. This study provides an integrated evaluation framework for selecting drought-tolerant and high-quality genotypes from interspecific hybrid progenies in blackberry, offering a theoretical basis for utilizing wild Rubus resources in breeding improved cultivars. Full article

With hydropower supplying nearly 94% of Ethiopia’s electricity, the national power grid is extremely vulnerable to recurrent droughts and erratic rainfall. To mitigate this risk, this study examines the wind power potential across five specific locations: Arerti, Sela Dingay, Debre Berhan, Mega, and Gode. By combining on-site mast measurements with datasets from NASA and the Global Wind Atlas, we evaluated wind characteristics at industry-standard hub heights of 80 m and 100 m. The analysis focused on wind power density (WPD), Weibull stability parameters (k and c), and directional consistency. The results indicate that Gode and Mega are the premier choices for commercial development, showing average speeds above 8.5 m/s and power densities exceeding 500 W/m2 at the 100 m level. Gode stands out as the most reliable site, with a Weibull shape factor (k) of 2.8 and a scale factor (c) of 9.1 m/s. We modeled a standard 3 MW turbine while factoring in a 20% loss for real-world conditions; this yielded net annual energy productions of 9461 MWh (36% CF) for Gode, 9040 MWh (34.4% CF) for Mega, and 8619 MWh (32.8% CF) for Arerti. While Sela Dingay and Debre Berhan have lower initial yields, their feasibility improves significantly when using towers taller than 80 m. Wind rose data reveals that Gode and Arerti have highly unidirectional flows, which simplifies turbine micro-siting. Notably, Arerti provides a unique economic advantage due to its location right next to existing 132/230 kV transmission infrastructure and industrial load centers. Overall, these findings provide a definitive technical roadmap for Ethiopia to diversify its energy portfolio and meet its Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) objectives. Full article

Optimizing public investment in urban green infrastructure under water scarcity is a core challenge in resource economics. Against the backdrop of global climate change—characterized by rising temperatures, increased frequency and intensity of droughts, and altered precipitation patterns—this study addresses the critical knowledge gap in quantifying the economic returns on the physiological adaptations of urban trees, which are central to their value as natural capital. We integrated dual-water isotope (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and leaf carbon isotope (δ¹³C) analyses to mechanistically decode the water use strategy of Machilus yunnanensis (M. yunnanensis) in drought-prone Kunming, China. The results show strategic seasonal plasticity: a shift from shallow soil water (10–50 cm) in the wet season to deeper soil sources (50–90 cm) and stem reserves in the dry season, coupled with a dynamic, diurnally variable water use efficiency (WUE_13C). We then constructed a transparent economic valuation model translating these traits into three quantifiable benefit streams: (1) operational cost savings (EV₁) from reduced irrigation demand; (2) enhanced marginal productivity of water (EV₂) in ecosystem service generation; and (3) climate resilience value (EV₃) via mitigated mortality risk. Our “Water–Carbon–Economy” nexus framework provides a generalizable methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness and risk-adjusted returns of urban forest species, demonstrating that tree selection based on such eco-efficient traits is not merely an ecological choice but a sound economic investment, offering direct implications for budget-constrained municipalities seeking to maximize green infrastructure benefits under climate uncertainty. Full article

Drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events have emerged as a critical type of compound climate extreme under ongoing climate change, posing increasing risks to water resources and ecosystems in Southwest China. This study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of DFAA events during the historical period (1995–2024) and the future period (2025–2064), as well as their relationships with evapotranspiration. Daily precipitation was simulated using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (MME) combined with Delta downscaling, while station observations were used to identify DFAA events and evapotranspiration. Model performance was evaluated using Taylor diagrams and simulation relative bias. The results showed that the downscaled MME substantially improved the simulation of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and cumulative DFAA event occurrences, with relative bias in most regions controlled within ±3%. Compared with the historical period, both drought-to-flood (DTF) and flood-to-drought (FTD) events showed overall increases during 2025–2064. Specifically, under the four SSP scenarios, DTF events increased by 165, 133, 180, and 140 occurrences, respectively, while FTD events increased by 130, 147, 114, and 79 occurrences, respectively. The regional mean trends of DTF events during the near-term period were −0.21, 0.16, −0.45, and 1.24 times·5a⁻¹, whereas the corresponding trends of FTD events were 1.82, 1.17, 0.05, and −1.03 times·5a⁻¹ under the four scenarios. Spatial analyses revealed pronounced regional heterogeneity, with enhanced signals mainly concentrated in eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, and parts of Guizhou. Lagged correlation analyses further indicated significant monthly lag effects between DFAA events and evapotranspiration during the flood season; DTF events generally showed positive correlations with subsequent evapotranspiration, whereas FTD events exhibited predominantly negative correlations. Overall, this study clarifies the future spatiotemporal evolution of DFAA events in Southwest China and highlights the important role of land–atmosphere hydrothermal processes in regulating compound drought–flood extremes. Full article

Due to climate change, seedling damage caused by drought stress is expected to increase in both afforestation sites and nurseries. Therefore, to ensure stable seedling production under high-temperature conditions and to cultivate seedlings with enhanced drought tolerance through hardening treatments, the development of an effective irrigation system is required. Conventional physiological methods for non-destructive drought detection, such as chlorophyll fluorescence and leaf temperature measurements, require expensive and manual operation, thereby limiting their real-time applicability in forest nurseries. This study evaluated the applicability of using image-based leaf angle measurements for drought stress detection in Quercus acutissima Carruth. seedlings. One-year-old seedlings were grown under two water regimes—well-watered (CT: control) and unwatered (DT: drought)—through Day 8. Statistical analyses (RMANOVA) revealed that changes in the leaf angle parameter PMD–MD (the difference between the previous and current measurement days) showed treatment effects similar to those of the physiological responses ΦNO (quantum yield of non-regulated energy dissipation) and qL (fraction of open PSII reaction centers) to drought on Day 6. Leaf angle reflected drought stress but did not precede physiological changes, indicating its role as a complementary rather than an early indicator. Multiple regression models identified AT (air temperature), SM (soil moisture), Fm′ (maximum fluorescence in the light-adapted state), and VPD (vapor pressure deficit) as the main factors influencing leaf angle variation. Although leaf angle was affected by combined environmental stresses such as high temperature, it was less sensitive to heat stress than physiological responses based on RMANOVA results. These results indicate the potential of image-based leaf angle measurements for drought stress detection. To establish plant-based smart irrigation systems, future studies should validate and refine this approach using larger datasets. Full article

As climate change increasingly impacts the water cycle across the Alpine region, monitoring surface soil moisture is essential for hydrological models and drought early warning. Yet operational products either mask steep terrain, or lack the spatial resolution to capture the surface soil moisture (SSM) spatial variability of the Alpine catchments. This study presents a novel retrieval approach aggregating Sentinel-1 radiometric terrain-corrected backscatter (${\gamma }^0$) into 100 m elevation bands per sub-basin and aspect across the Austrian Alps. The resulting Alpine backscatter product is processed through an orbit-wise change detection to derive over 34,000 SSM timeseries, evaluated using ERA5-Land and compared to 264 precipitation stations from Geosphere for the period from 2016 to 2024. The results show satisfactory agreement with ERA5-Land (Pearson correlation > 0.46 below 400 m) and capture in situ precipitation-driven anomalies with the strongest performance below 400 m (Spearman correlation > 0.47), particularly over grasslands and south-facing slopes. Despite its limitations at high elevation and over dense vegetation, Sentinel-1 provides consistent and elevation-stratified information across more than 80% of the Austrian Alps, typically excluded from operational products. The new Alpine SSM product highlights Sentinel-1’s potential to support hydrological modeling, drought monitoring, and water resource management across complex topography such as the Alps. Full article

Hydrological drought projections are crucial for climate-resilient water management; however, many basins lack calibrated process-based models that can readily be forced with climate scenarios. This study develops a purely data-driven framework to forecast the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) from standardized meteorological indices and to assess future drought regimes under different emission pathways. We used a 60-year monthly record (1961–2020) of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Temperature Index (STI), the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the SDI for the Sava River Basin. Correlation analysis showed that the SDI is primarily controlled by the short-lag SPI (0–1 months), whereas the STI and SPEI play a minor role. Several machine learning models were tested for one-month-ahead SDI prediction; a Random Forest (RF) with hyperparameters optimized by TimeSeriesSplit cross-validation, combined with linear-scaling bias correction, clearly outperformed XGBoost, Elastic Net, support vector regression, and a multilayer perceptron. On the independent test period (2009–2020), the RF achieved MAE ≈ 0.62, RMSE ≈ 0.83, NSE ≈ 0.49, and KGE ≈ 0.65. Using SPI/STI/SPEI projections from RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, the RF produced monthly SDI projections for 2021–2050, revealing increasingly frequent, severe, and persistent streamflow droughts with higher emissions. The results demonstrate that carefully tuned ensemble tree models driven solely by standardized climate indices can provide skilful and interpretable SDI projections for drought risk assessment, supporting sustainable, climate-resilient water resources planning and adaptation in this transboundary basin. Full article

In 2024, an abrupt drought-to-flood transition (ADFT) event occurred in Henan Province, China, causing severe losses to agriculture and the economy. Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of such compound extremes remains challenging at the subseasonal scale. This study employs soil moisture percentiles to identify local droughts and floods, connects them into coherent patches, and detects an ADFT event spatiotemporally. The proposed three-dimensional identification method is further applied to evaluate the ECMWF S2S reforecasts of the 2024 ADFT event. At a 1-week lead, the ECMWF ensemble mean successfully captures the transition. However, the spatial extent is underpredicted substantially at a 2-week lead. In terms of probabilistic forecast, the Brier skill scores for drought, transition, and flood stages are 0.38, 0.57, and 0.38 at a 1-week lead, respectively. However, these scores drop sharply at a 2-week lead, particularly for the transition and flood stages. The decreased forecast skill is jointly influenced by internal dynamical errors in the model and biases in the positions of the subtropical high- and low-pressure systems at long lead. This study assesses the capability of a numerical model to predict a compound extreme from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives, and highlights the critical role of atmospheric circulation in achieving skillful prediction. Full article

Due to climate change, drought periods are becoming more frequent and more intense, posing substantial stress to Central European forest stands, especially climatically sensitive conifer forests. The early detection and accurate spatial delineation of forest damage are essential for supporting adaptive forest management decisions. This study presents a two-tier, multi-step forest damage assessment approach that combines Sentinel-2 satellite-based NDVI double-difference analysis with UAV-based high-resolution photogrammetric evaluation. In the first phase, potential damaged forest patches were identified in two sample areas of the Sopron Mountains using double-difference maps derived from monthly window NDVI maxima calculated from Sentinel-2 data. In the second phase, UAV surveys were carried out over the selected forest compartments, resulting in individual-tree-level canopy segmentation and object-based NDVI analysis. The photogrammetric point clouds were combined with ground points derived from airborne laser scanning to enable the accurate generation of canopy height models. The results confirmed that NDVI double-difference analysis is suitable for the spatial detection of both gradual drought-related damage and sudden disturbances—such as forest fire—even under sequences of drought and moderate years occurring in a sporadic pattern. The UAV-based analysis corroborated the satellite observations in detail and enabled an accurate inventory of damaged trees as well as the exploration of their spatial distribution. The proposed methodology provides an efficient, cost-effective, and operational tool for multi-scale monitoring of forest damage, contributing to the timely recognition of climate-change impacts and to the substantiation of targeted forest management interventions. Full article