Search Results (18)

Accurate drought monitoring depends on selecting an appropriate cumulative distribution function (CDF) to model the original data, resulting in the standardized drought indices. In the numerous research studies, while rigorous validation was not made by scrutinizing the model assumptions and uncertainties in identifying theoretical drought CDF models, such oversights lead to biased representations of drought evaluation and characteristics. This research compares the parametric theoretical and empirical CDFs for a comprehensive evaluation of standardized Drought Indices. Additionally, it examines the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of both empirical and theoretical distribution functions in drought assessment. Three drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), cover meteorological and hydrological droughts. The assessment spans diverse applications, covering different climates and regions: Durham, United Kingdom (SPEI, 1868–2021); Konya, Türkiye (SPI, 1964–2022); and Lüleburgaz, Türkiye (SDI, 1957–2015). The findings reveal that theoretical and empirical CDFs demonstrated notable discrepancies, particularly in long-term hydrological drought assessments, where underestimations reached up to 50%, posing risks of misinformed conclusions that may impact critical drought-related decisions and policymaking. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) for SPI3 between empirical and best-fitted CDF was 0.087, and between empirical and Gamma it was 0.152. For SDI, it ranged between 0.09 and 0.143. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for SPEI was approximately 0.05 for all timescales. Additionally, it concludes that empirical CDFs provide more reliable and conservative drought assessments and are free from the constraints of model assumptions. Both approaches gave approximately the same drought duration with different intensities regarding drought characteristics. Due to the complex process of drought events and different definitions of drought events, each drought event must be studied separately, considering its effects on different sectors. Full article

The study applies a cost–benefit analysis approach to assess the ecosystem services provided by ancestral systems of artificial recharge of high mountain aquifers, the “acequias de careo” (careo channels), in the Bérchules River basin, located in the Sierra Nevada, Spain. The methodology is structured in three main phases: (i) the definition of scenarios and system boundaries; (ii) the selection of ecological, social, and economic indicators; and (iii) the monetary valuation of benefits in comparison with operation and maintenance costs. The findings indicate that the studied system generates social, environmental, and economic benefits exceeding €22.2 million per year, while its operation requires only €43,352 annually. This gives a benefit/cost (B/C) ratio of 512, demonstrating its extremely high social profitability. These results highlight the potential of such infrastructures as nature-based solutions that can enhance water availability both temporally and spatially, mitigate the impacts of extreme events (such as droughts and floods), and strengthen local resilience to climate change. Moreover, they contribute to cultural heritage preservation and promote community cohesion. Full article

Drought, as one of the hazards exacerbated by climate change, has attracted the attention of many scientists. Many drought studies have used different drought event definitions (DEDs). However, little is known about the effects of these definitions on drought characteristics. This study investigated the effects of DEDs on drought characteristics using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Upper Pangani Basin in northeast Tanzania. First, rainfall and air temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit database were used to compute the SPEI. Then, four different types of DEDs were used to identify drought events in the SPEI time series. The identified drought events were examined for agreements and correlations using Kappa and Phi coefficients, respectively, and finally characterized. The findings show that different DEDs produced different types and frequencies of drought events. The patterns of drought events for these DEDs had agreements ranging from 52 to 78% and correlations ranging from 79% to 95%. Different DEDs also led to different drought intensities, ranging from mild to extreme, although the overall drought intensities were either mild or moderate. From this study, we can infer that using suitable DEDs is essential for identifying drought events, as they enable accurate comparisons of droughts across regions and periods, consequently reducing errors and biases in evaluating drought hazards. Full article

Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset and severe impacts, have critical implications for the ecological environment and water resource security. However, inconsistent definitions of flash droughts have hindered scientific assessments of drought severity, limiting efforts in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we propose a new method for explicitly characterizing flash drought events, with particular emphasis on the process of soil moisture recovery. The temporal and spatial evolution of flash droughts over the Yangtze River Basin was analyzed, and the severity of the extreme flash drought in 2022 was assessed by comparing its characteristics and impacts with those of three typical dry years. Additionally, the driving factors of the 2022 flash drought were evaluated from multiple perspectives. Results indicate that the new identification method for flash droughts is reasonable and reliable. In recent years, the frequency and duration of flash droughts have significantly increased, with the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake basins being particularly affected. Spring and summer were identified as peak seasons for flash droughts, with the middle reaches most affected in spring, while summer droughts tend to impact the entire basin. Compared to 2006, 2011, and 2013, the flash drought in 2022 affected the largest area, with the highest number of grids experiencing two flash drought events and a development rate exceeding 15%. Moreover, the summer heat in 2022 was more extreme than in the other three years, extending from spring to fall, especially during July–August. Its evolution was driven by the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures. The divergence of water vapor flux intensified water shortages, while anomalies in latent and sensible heat fluxes increased surface evaporation and heat transfer, further disturbing the regional water cycle. This study provides valuable insights for flash drought monitoring and early warning in the context of a changing climate. Full article

The area surrounding the Po River, known as the Po Valley, provides a central contribution in the economy of Italy and is highly devoted to agriculture. Recently it has been hit by multiple droughts, among which the exceptional event of summer 2022 is considered the worst dry period of the past 200 years. In the near future, the frequency of such exceptional events is predicted to rise; thus, a deep knowledge of the past droughts that hit the area, the variables used to characterize the events, the impacts they caused and the mitigation strategies adopted to deal with dry periods is of the utmost importance for policy definitions and planning. This study maps the scientific literature published from 2000 to February 2024 on the topic of drought in the Po Valley using the Scopus and Web of Science databases. Overall, 44 articles have been identified and grouped in three main classes: event identification and characterization, impact analysis and management strategies. The main gaps found in the collected papers are the lack of evaluations of the impacts of drought events on human health, hydroelectric energy production and tourism. Furthermore, comprehensive drought management and planning in the area is never addressed in the considered articles. The mentioned aspects deserve more attention, especially the development of drought management plans and policies and the evaluation of their effectiveness. Full article

Drought is a powerful natural hazard that has significant effects on ecosystems amid the constant threats posed by climate change. This study investigates agricultural drought in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin through the interconnections among four indices: precipitation (meteorological reanalysis), vegetation development, thermal stress, and soil water deficit (remote sensing observations). While drought seems to be a clear concept with effective assessment tools (e.g., SPI and SPEI), the definition of drought periods is blurrier. This article examines the main drivers of agricultural drought, precipitation, soil moisture deficit, incipient vegetation development, and rising soil surface temperature. Their temporal connections in various agrosystems of the basin and the determination of drought periods by revisiting the run theory were investigated. The Pearson correlations at different spatial scales showed a medium to low level of agreement between the indices, which was explained by the geographical heterogeneity and the climatic variability between the agrosystems within the basin. It was also shown that the cascade of impacts expected from lower precipitations was revealed by the cross-correlation analysis. The connection between precipitation deficit and vegetation remains significant for at least one month for most pairs of indices, especially during drought events, suggesting that agricultural drought spells can be connected in time through the three or four selected indices. Short-, mid-, and long-term impacts of precipitation deficiencies on soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature were revealed. As expected, the more instantaneous variables of soil moisture and surface temperature showed no lag with precipitation. Vegetation anomalies at the monthly time step showed a two-month lag with a preceding effect of vegetation to precipitation. Finally, the determination of drought events and stages with varying thresholds on the run theory showed large variability in duration, magnitude, and intensity according to the choice of both normality and dryness thresholds. Full article

The Santa Cruz department in Bolivia is characterized by a wide range of ecosystems and by its richness in water resources. In recent years, extended drought caused by climate change has led to extensive fire events. Combined with deforestation, this is resulting in the degradation of the region’s ecosystems and water resources. To address restoration needs from both a land- and water-management perspective, this study proposes to prioritize restoration areas by applying a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) based on two main principles: (1) using the watershed as the main study unit and (2) involving stakeholders in the definition of priority watersheds. Local stakeholders selected criteria representing water resources, biophysical characteristics, land management, productive areas, and fire disaster threats, and reclassified the spatial information based on perceived importance. Different prioritization scenarios were developed and compared in a Google Earth Engine (GEE) application. Priority restoration areas largely depend on the weighting scheme. Focusing solely on past fires leads to prioritizing the south-east basins, while the conservation of the western watersheds becomes more important when increasing the weight of the water resources criteria. This study represents the first step in developing a participatory MCA tool at the watershed scale in Santa Cruz. Highlighting the impact of different prioritization criteria can support collective decision-making around land and watershed restoration. Full article

The combination of several factors related both to human pressure as well as natural issues could lead to a marked alteration of the groundwater budget terms and a decrease in groundwater availability. The basal aquifer of the Sibillini Mts. is a strategic resource of drinking water in the central sector of Apennine (Italy). The seismic sequence that occurred in this area in 2016 induced transient and sustained modifications in the aquifer settings. Springs located on the western side of the Sibillini Mts. were characterized by an increased discharge, while in contrast, the eastern springs suffered an intense drop in their groundwater discharge. In 2017, a drought period started immediately after the exhaustion of the seismic sequence effect. The comparison between the recharge and discharge of the major springs in the 2000–2020 period allowed the definition of the different responses of the aquifer to the co-occurrence of earthquakes and climatic events. The hydrodynamic alteration triggered by the earthquake induced a huge depletion of the groundwater stored in the eastern sector of the basal aquifer (at least 50 × 10⁶ m³). The scarce recharge occurring in the following drought period (more than 30% of the average annual value) was not enough to restore the groundwater resources, causing a serious drinking water supply crisis in the main tapped springs in the eastern sector of the aquifer. Full article

Clues of climate change on the Alashan Plateau since the last glacial period (40 ka) are important for revealing the mechanism of desertification of middle-latitude deserts in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Studies are still rare for the understanding of the specific relationship of climate changes between the Alashan Plateau and the global. Based on a systematic and comparative analysis of the existing research in China and the international academic community, this paper reviews the environmental evolution history of the Alashan Plateau since the last glacial period from the records of paleo-environment and geomorphological characteristics in different deserts of the plateau (e.g., Badanjilin, Tenggeli, and Wulanbuhe). From about 40 ka to the end of the last glacial maximum, the climate on the plateau was wetter than it is today, and to the end of the Pleistocene, the climate was generally dry and the aeolian activities were enhanced. However, the climate was arid during the whole last glacial period in the Wulanbuhe Desert, evidently different from the overall pattern of the plateau. The Tenggeli Desert was characterized by an arid climate in the early Holocene. The most controversial events for the Alashan Plateau are the drought events in the middle Holocene in the Badanjilin Desert. The role and impact of the westerlies and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) systems on the climate change of the desert and even the whole plateau is a vexed question that brings different views in different periods. There is still a lack of definite evidence representing the events of global environmental change that occurred on the plateau during the discussed period. The distinctive morphology of dune mountains and the distribution of sand dunes are mutually indicative of the direction and energy of wind systems on the plateau. It is suggested that appropriate wind energy is the significant key to the desertification in these middle-latitude deserts on the plateau. From a global-scale review of climate change, the desertification of the modern-scale sandy desert landscapes on the Alashan Plateau is generally related to the global glacial period and the cold and dry climate during the past 40 ka. Full article

Due to the lack of a general drought definition, water users and managers have developed and used different indices. Many studies using drought indices have been made so as to detect drought events or just to compare their results and assess their advantages and disadvantages. In Portugal, these studies have been done for common drought indices; however, an integrated evaluation and comparison using recent data is needed. Therefore, this study is intended to give an updated overview of the behaviour of the proposed indices. This study proposes the usage of PDSI, scPDSI, SPI and SPEI. With the exception of the PDSI, all indices have been calculated through R packages. The results for the studied regions in mainland Portugal suggest that the drought situations are, in general, most significant and frequent than the wet periods. From our results, we can conclude that the SPI model is more sensitive to extreme drought events and can detect them earlier. The PDSI, scPDSI and SPEI are more reliable for drought monitorization at medium and long spells, which might represent the environmental interactions more closely to the reality. Also, the scPDSI tends to reduce the importance of short period recovering. It is then advisable that impact and scientifical studies consider all of these indices or at least some of them to have a broader and complete understanding of the drought situations to be studied. Full article

In the last few decades, groundwater has been the main water supply to the Nuweiba alluvial fan. However, currently, the main water supply is a desalination plant. The desalination plant might be vulnerable to malfunctions resulting in a severe drought. In addition, the aquifer type in the fan is coastal. Hence, replenishing the groundwater is necessary on a long-term basis to overcome drought events in the case of emergency. To replenish the groundwater using flash-flood water, a Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) system could be installed. This study applies the Geo-Information System–Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA) method to delineate the feasible locations for installing a MAR system. To delineate the feasible MAR sites via a potential map, four steps were performed: problem definition, constraint mapping, suitability mapping, and sensitivity analysis. The results show that nearly 52% of the study area is suitable for installing MAR. Additionally, around 6% of the study area shows high potential for installing MAR, whereas nearly 20% falls under the moderate potential class. The potential map shows that the high-potential MAR sites are located at the western portion of the study area, near the ephemeral stream outlet. The map could be utilized as a tool for decision-makers to plan a future sustainable development strategy. Full article

In recent years, the scientific community has paid particular attention to the analysis of extreme events, such as heat waves, droughts, and intense rain events that have caused loss of human life and significant economic damage. Climate-related extremes generally produce large impact on infrastructures, especially on those with insufficient design, while some infrastructures may become inadequate under the effects of severe extremes. In the particular case of airports, the increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events will worsen their deterioration rate. This work presents an analysis of the expected climate variability over Napoli Capodichino Airport, using climate projections generated by the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. Simulations were performed over Italy, employing a spatial resolution of approximately 8 km. The time period simulated was 1979–2100, and, in particular, the CMIP5 historical experiment (based on historical greenhouse gas concentrations) was used for the period 1979–2005, while, for the period 2006–2100, two different simulations were performed, employing the Representative Concentration Pathways IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentrations. The meteorological situations over the airport have been analyzed, along with the identification of conditions that could cause relevant impact on airport environment. In particular, extreme summer temperatures may exceed design standards, leading to heat damage to surfaces, while runways or aprons may have trouble due to the surface melting during peak heat periods. Long term changes in the directions of wind can adversely affect the usability of runways, while changes in wind shear could modify strength and frequency of clear-air turbulence. Analyses have been performed considering suitable Extreme Events Indicators (EWI), both on past trends and on numerical projections over future periods, with the aim of contributing to the definition of a risk assessment methodology based on the combination of the frequency and of the severity of meteorological hazards. Full article

Compound extreme events can severely impact water security, food security, and social and economic development. Compared with single-hazard events, compound extreme events cause greater losses. Therefore, understanding the spatial and temporal variations in compound extreme events is important to prevent the risks they cause. Only a few studies have analyzed the spatial and temporal relations of compound extreme events from the perspective of a complex network. In this study, we define compound drought and heatwave events (CDHEs) using the monthly scale standard precipitation index (SPI), and the definition of a heatwave is based on daily maximum temperature. We evaluate the spatial and temporal variations in CDHEs in China from 1961 to 2018 and discuss the impact of maximum temperature and precipitation changes on the annual frequency and annual magnitude trends of CDHEs. Furthermore, a synchronization strength network is established using the event synchronization method, and the proposed synchronization strength index (SSI) is used to divide the network into eight communities to identify the propagation extent of CDHEs, where each community represents a region with high synchronization strength. Finally, we explore the impact of summer Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on CDHEs in different communities. The results show that, at a national scale, the mean frequency of CDHEs takes on a non-significant decreasing trend, and the mean magnitude of CDHEs takes on a non-significant increasing trend. The significant trends in the annual frequency and annual magnitude of CDHEs are attributed to maximum temperature and precipitation changes. AMO positively modulates the mean frequency and mean magnitude of CDHEs within community 1 and 2, and negatively modulates the mean magnitude of CDHEs within community 3. PDO negatively modulates the mean frequency and mean magnitude of CDHEs within community 4. AMO and PDO jointly modulate the mean magnitude of CDHEs within community 6 and 8. Overall, this study provides a new understanding of CDHEs to mitigate their severe effects. Full article

Throughout much of its history, the sociological study of human communities in disaster has been based on events that occur rapidly, are limited in geographic scope, and their management understood as phased stages of response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness. More recent literature has questioned these concepts, arguing that gradual-onset phenomena like droughts, famines and epidemics merit consideration as disasters and that their exclusion has negative consequences for the communities impacted, public policy in terms of urgency and visibility and for the discipline itself as the analytical tools of sociological research are not brought to bear on these events. We agree that gradual-onset disasters merit greater attention from social scientists and in this paper have addressed the two most significant ongoing disasters that are gradual in onset, global in scope and have caused profound impacts on lives, livelihoods, communities and the governments that must cope with their effects. These disasters are the coronavirus pandemic and global climate change both of which include dimensions that challenge the prevailing definition of disaster. We begin with an examination of the foundational work in the sociological study of a disaster that established a conceptual framework based solely on rapidly occurring disasters. Our focus is on several components of the existing framework for defining and studying disasters, which we term “borders.” These borders are temporal, spatial, phasing and positioning, which, in our view, must be reexamined, and to some degree expanded or redefined to accommodate the full range of disasters to which our globalized world is vulnerable. To do so will expand or redefine these borders to incorporate and promote an understanding of significant risks associated with disaster agents that are gradual and potentially catastrophic, global in scope and require international cooperation to manage. Full article

Recently, the signs of extreme droughts, which were thought of as exceptional and unlikely, are being detected worldwide. It is necessary to prepare countermeasures against extreme droughts; however, current definitions of extreme drought are just used as only one or two indicators to represent the status or severity of a drought. More representative drought factors, which can show the status and severity that are relevant to extreme drought, need to be considered depending on the characteristics of the drought and comprehensive evaluation of various indices. Therefore, this study attempted to quantitatively define regional extreme droughts using more acceptable factors. The methodology comprises five factors that are indicative of extreme drought. The five factors are (1) duration (days), (2) number of consecutive years (years), (3) water availability, (4) return period, and (5) regional experience. The results were analyzed by applying the procedure to droughts that took place in 2014–2015 in South Korea. The results showed that the applied historical event did not enter the status of extreme drought, which is proposed in this study; however, the proposed methodology is applicable because it uses acceptable and reasonable factors to judge extreme drought, but it can also take into account the past regional experience of extreme drought. Full article