Search Results (342)

Financial market forecasting remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics and regime-dependent behaviors that traditional models struggle to capture effectively. This research introduces the Adaptive Financial Reservoir Network with Hypernetwork Flow (AFRN–HyperFlow) framework, a novel ensemble architecture integrating Echo State Networks, temporal convolutional networks, mixture density networks, adaptive Hypernetworks, and deep state-space models for enhanced financial time-series prediction. Through comprehensive feature engineering incorporating technical indicators, spectral decomposition, reservoir-based representations, and flow dynamics characteristics, the framework achieves superior forecasting performance across diverse market conditions. Experimental validation on 26,817 balanced samples demonstrates exceptional results with an F1-score of 0.8947, representing a 12.3% improvement over State-of-the-Art baseline methods, while maintaining robust performance across asset classes from equities to cryptocurrencies. The adaptive Hypernetwork mechanism enables real-time regime-change detection with 2.3 days average lag and 95% accuracy, while systematic SHAP analysis provides comprehensive interpretability essential for regulatory compliance. Ablation studies reveal Echo State Networks contribute 9.47% performance improvement, validating the architectural design. The AFRN–HyperFlow framework addresses critical limitations in uncertainty quantification, regime adaptability, and interpretability, offering promising directions for next-generation financial forecasting systems incorporating quantum computing and federated learning approaches. Full article

The accurate estimation of urban property values is a key challenge for appraisers, market participants, financial institutions, and urban planners. In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising tools for price forecasting due to their ability to model complex relationships among variables. However, their application raises two main critical issues: (i) the risk of overfitting, especially with small datasets or with noisy data; (ii) the interpretive issues associated with the “black box” nature of many models. Within this framework, this paper proposes a methodological approach that addresses both these issues, comparing the predictive performance of three ML algorithms—k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Random Forest (RF), and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN)—applied to the housing market in the city of Salerno, Italy. For each model, overfitting is preliminarily assessed to ensure predictive robustness. Subsequently, the results are interpreted using explainability techniques, such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAPs) and Permutation Feature Importance (PFI). This analysis reveals that the Random Forest offers the best balance between predictive accuracy and transparency, with features such as area and proximity to the train station identified as the main drivers of property prices. kNN and the ANN are viable alternatives that are particularly robust in terms of generalization. The results demonstrate how the defined methodological framework successfully balances predictive effectiveness and interpretability, supporting the informed and transparent use of ML in real estate valuation. Full article

Stock price forecasting remains a persistent challenge in time series analysis due to complex inter-stock relationships and dynamic textual signals such as financial news. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can model relational structures, they often struggle with capturing higher-order dependencies and are sensitive to noise. Moreover, sentiment signals are typically aggregated using fixed time windows, which may introduce temporal bias. To address these issues, we propose DASF-Net (Diffusion-Aware Sentiment Fusion Network), a multimodal framework that integrates structural and textual information for robust prediction. DASF-Net leverages diffusion processes over two complementary financial graphs—one based on industry relationships, the other on fundamental indicators—to learn richer stock representations. Simultaneously, sentiment embeddings extracted from financial news using FinBERT are aggregated over an empirically optimized window to preserve temporal relevance. These modalities are fused via a multi-head attention mechanism and passed to a temporal forecasting module. DASF-Net integrates daily stock prices and news sentiment, using a 3-day sentiment aggregation window, to forecast stock prices over daily horizons (1–3 days). Experiments on 12 large-cap S&P 500 stocks over four years demonstrate that DASF-Net outperforms competitive baselines, achieving up to 91.6% relative reduction in Mean Squared Error (MSE). Results highlight the effectiveness of combining graph diffusion and sentiment-aware features for improved financial forecasting. Full article

This study explores sustainable rural tourism entrepreneurship within the Urlaub am Bauernhof (UaB) cooperative network in Austria, offering an integrated model that unites financial, social, environmental, institutional, and marketing dimensions. Employing exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) on data from 393 farm-based accommodation stakeholders, this research identifies sustainable entrepreneurship as comprising six interconnected dimensions: Economic Resilience and Diversification, Sociocultural Integration, Environmental and Regional Commitment, Market Visibility and Strategic Communication, Quality Assurance and Institutional Support, and Perceived Value and Branding. This multidimensional and hierarchically structured framework reflects the complex yet coherent nature of sustainability-driven entrepreneurship in cooperative tourism networks. The findings confirm the multidimensional nature of sustainable entrepreneurship and support the hypothesized structural relationships. The UaB network is presented as a transferable model that demonstrates how cooperative frameworks can enhance sustainability, regional identity, and rural revitalization, offering valuable insights and practical guidance for rural regions in the Western Balkans, where economic challenges, depopulation, and underdeveloped tourism infrastructure prevail. By illustrating a successful cooperative approach rooted in sustainability and regional identity, this study contributes to policy-making aimed at fostering resilient, culturally rich, and environmentally responsible rural tourism entrepreneurship in transitioning contexts. Full article

This study proposes a novel hybrid forecasting approach designed explicitly for long-horizon financial time series. It incorporates LMD (Local Mean Decomposition), SD (Signal Decomposition), and sophisticated machine learning methods. The framework for the NASDAQ Composite Index begins by decomposing the original time series into stochastic and deterministic components using the LMD approach. This method effectively separates linear and nonlinear signal structures. The stochastic components are modeled using ARIMA to represent linear temporal dynamics, while the deterministic components are projected using cutting-edge machine learning methods, including XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). This study employs various statistical metrics to evaluate the predictive ability across both short-term noise and long-term trends, including Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Directional Statistic (DS). Furthermore, the Diebold–Mariano test is used to determine the statistical significance of any forecast improvements. Empirical results demonstrate that the hybrid LMD–ARIMA–SD–XGBoost model consistently outperforms alternative configurations in terms of prediction accuracy and directional consistency. These findings demonstrate the advantages of integrating decomposition-based signal filtering with ensemble machine learning to improve the robustness and generalizability of long-term forecasting. This study presents a scalable and adaptive approach for modeling complex, nonlinear, and high-dimensional time series, thereby contributing to the enhancement of intelligent forecasting systems in the economic and financial sectors. As far as the authors are aware, this is the first study to combine XGBoost and LMD in a hybrid decomposition framework for forecasting long-horizon stock indexes. Full article

Background/Objectives: Despite advancements in surgery, esophagectomy remains one of the most challenging and complex gastrointestinal surgical procedures, burdened by significant perioperative morbidity and mortality rates, as well as high financial costs. Recognizing the need for standardized care provided by a multidisciplinary healthcare team, the EUropean PErioperative MEdical Networking (EUPEMEN) initiative developed a dedicated protocol for perioperative care of patients undergoing esophagectomy, aiming to enhance recovery, reduce morbidity, and homogenize care delivery across European healthcare systems. Methods: Developed through a multidisciplinary European collaboration of five partners, the protocol incorporates expert consensus and the latest scientific evidence. It addresses the entire perioperative pathway, from preoperative preparation to hospital discharge and postoperative recovery, emphasizing patient-centered care, risk mitigation, and early functional restoration. Results: The implementation of the EUPEMEN esophagectomy protocol is expected to improve patient outcomes through a day-by-day structured prehabilitation plan, meticulous intraoperative management, and proactive postoperative rehabilitation. The approach promotes reduced postoperative complications, earlier return to oral intake, and shorter hospital stays, while supporting multidisciplinary coordination. Conclusions: The EUPEMEN protocol for esophagectomy provides a comprehensive guideline framework for optimizing perioperative care in esophageal surgery. In addition, it serves as a practical guide for healthcare professionals committed to advancing surgical recovery and standardizing clinical practice across diverse care environments across Europe. Full article

This study conducts a comprehensive systematic review of the economic impact of Digital Twin (DT) technology within the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry, following the PRISMA methodology. While DT adoption has been accelerated by advancements in Building Information Modelling (BIM), the Internet of Things (IoT), and data analytics, significant challenges persist—most notably, high initial investment costs and integration complexities. Synthesising the literature from 2016 onwards, this review identifies sector-specific barriers, regulatory burdens, and a lack of standardisation as key factors constituting DT implementation costs. Despite these hurdles, DTs demonstrate strong potential for enhancing construction productivity, optimising lifecycle asset management, and enabling predictive maintenance, ultimately reducing operational expenditures and improving long-term financial performance. Case studies reveal cost efficiencies achieved through DTs in modular construction, energy optimisation, and infrastructure management. However, limited financial resources and digital skills continue to constrain the uptake across the sector, with various extents of impact. This paper calls for the development of unified standards, innovative public–private funding mechanisms, and strategic collaborations to unlock and utilise DTs’ full economic value. It also recommends that future research explore theoretical frameworks addressing governance, data infrastructure, and digital equity—particularly through conceptualising DT-related data as public assets or collective goods in the context of smart cities and networked infrastructure systems. Full article

This study proposes a hybrid approach to analyze and forecast non-stationary financial time series by combining statistical models with deep neural networks. A model is introduced that integrates three key components: the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model, which captures volatility dynamics; an attention mechanism (ATT), which identifies the most relevant features within the sequence; and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, which receives the outputs of the previous modules to generate price forecasts. This architecture is referred to as GAS-ATT-LSTM. Both unidirectional and bidirectional variants were evaluated using real financial data from the Nasdaq Composite Index, Invesco QQQ Trust, ProShares UltraPro QQQ, Bitcoin, and gold and silver futures. The proposed model’s performance was compared against five benchmark architectures: LSTM Bidirectional, GARCH-LSTM Bidirectional, ATT-LSTM, GAS-LSTM, and GAS-LSTM Bidirectional, under sliding windows of 3, 5, and 7 days. The results show that GAS-ATT-LSTM, particularly in its bidirectional form, consistently outperforms the benchmark models across most assets and forecasting horizons. It stands out for its adaptability to varying volatility levels and temporal structures, achieving significant improvements in both accuracy and stability. These findings confirm the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model as a robust tool for forecasting complex financial time series. Full article

The agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel data of RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2000 to 2023, combining social network analysis (SNA) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The results show the following: (1) The RCEP agricultural products trade network presents a “core-edge” hierarchical structure, with China as the core hub to drive regional resource integration and ASEAN countries developing into secondary core nodes to deepen collaborative dependence. (2) The “China-ASEAN-Japan-Korea “riangle trade structure is formed under the RCEP framework, and the network has the characteristics of a “small world”. The leading mode of South–South trade promotes the regional economic order to shift from the traditional vertical division of labor to multiple coordination. (3) The evolution of trade network system is driven by multiple factors: endogenous reciprocity and network expansion are the core structural driving forces; synergistic optimization of supply and demand matching between economic and financial development to promote system upgrading; geographical proximity and cultural convergence effectively reduce transaction costs and enhance system connectivity, but geographical distance is still the key system constraint that restricts the integration of marginal countries. This study provides a systematic and scientific analytical framework for understanding the resilience mechanism and structural evolution of regional agricultural trade networks under global shocks. Full article

Machine learning applications in finance commonly employ feature decorrelation techniques developed for generic statistical problems. We investigate whether this practice appropriately addresses the unique characteristics of financial data, where correlations often encode fundamental economic relationships rather than statistical noise. Using autocallable structured notes as a laboratory, we demonstrate that preserving natural financial correlations outperforms conventional orthogonalization approaches. Our analysis covers autocallable notes with quarterly coupon payments, dual barrier structure, and embedded down-and-in up-and-out put options, priced using analytical methods with automatic differentiation for Greeks’ computation. Across neural networks, gradient boosting, and hybrid architectures, basic financial features achieve superior performance compared to decorrelated alternatives, with RMSE improvements ranging from 43% to 191%. The component-wise analysis reveals complex interactions between autocall mechanisms and higher-order sensitivities, particularly affecting vanna and volga patterns near barrier levels. These findings provide empirical evidence that financial machine learning benefits from domain-specific feature engineering principles that preserve economic relationships. Across all tested architectures, basic features consistently outperformed orthogonalized alternatives, with the largest improvements observed in CatBoost. Full article

The stock price of PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) reflects the dynamics of Indonesia’s energy sector, which is heavily influenced by global coal price fluctuations, national energy policies, and geopolitical conditions. This study aimed to develop an accurate forecasting model to predict the movement of INDY stock prices using a hybrid machine learning approach called CNN-BiGRU-AM. The objective was to generate future forecasts of INDY stock prices based on historical data from 28 August 2019 to 24 February 2025. The method applied a hybrid model combining a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU), and an Attention Mechanism (AM) to address the nonlinear, volatile, and noisy characteristics of stock data. The results showed that the CNN-BiGRU-AM model achieved high accuracy with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) below 3%, indicating its effectiveness in capturing long-term patterns. The CNN helped extract local features and reduce noise, the BiGRU captured bidirectional temporal dependencies, and the Attention Mechanism allocated weights to the most relevant historical information. The model remained robust even when stock prices were sensitive to external factors such as global commodity trends and geopolitical events. This study contributes to providing more accurate forecasting solutions for companies, investors, and stakeholders in making strategic decisions. It also enriches the academic literature on the application of deep learning techniques in financial data analysis and stock market forecasting within a complex and dynamic environment. Full article

This study investigates the convergence of blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), near-field communication (NFC), and mobile technologies in electronic payment (e-payment) systems, proposing an innovative integrative framework to deconstruct the systemic innovations and transformative impacts driven by such technological synergy. Unlike prior research, which often focuses on single-technology adoption, this study uniquely adopts a cross-technology convergence perspective. To our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically map the multi-technology convergence landscape in e-payment using scientometric techniques. By employing bibliometric and thematic network analysis methods, the research maps the intellectual evolution and key research themes of technology convergence in e-payment systems. Findings reveal that while the integration of these technologies holds significant promise, improving transparency, scalability, and responsiveness, it also presents challenges, including interoperability barriers, privacy concerns, and regulatory complexity. Furthermore, this study highlights the potential for convergent technologies to unintentionally deepen the digital divide if not inclusively designed. The novelty of this study is threefold: (1) theoretical contribution—this study expands existing frameworks of technology adoption and digital governance by introducing an integrated perspective on cross-technology adoption and regulatory responsiveness; (2) practical relevance—it offers actionable, stakeholder-specific recommendations for policymakers, financial institutions, developers, and end-users; (3) methodological innovation—it leverages scientometric and topic modeling techniques to capture the macro-level trajectory of technology convergence, complementing traditional qualitative insights. In conclusion, this study advances the theoretical foundations of digital finance and provides forward-looking policy and managerial implications, paving the way for a more secure, inclusive, and innovation-driven digital payment ecosystem. Full article

The global crude oil market, known for its pronounced volatility and nonlinear dynamics, plays a pivotal role in shaping economic stability and informing investment strategies. Contrary to traditional research focused on price forecasting, this study emphasizes the more investor-centric task of predicting returns for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. By spotlighting returns, it directly addresses critical investor concerns such as asset allocation and risk management. This study applies advanced machine learning models, including XGBoost, random forest, and neural networks to predict crude oil return, and for the first time, incorporates sustainability and external risk variables, which are shown to enhance predictive performance in capturing the non-stationarity and complexity of financial time-series data. To enhance predictive accuracy, we integrate 55 variables across five dimensions: macroeconomic indicators, financial and futures markets, energy markets, momentum factors, and sustainability and external risk. Among these, the rate of change stands out as the most influential predictor. Notably, XGBoost demonstrates a superior performance, surpassing competing models with an impressive 76% accuracy in direction forecasting. The analysis highlights how the significance of various predictors shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic. This underscores the dynamic and adaptive character of crude oil markets under substantial external disruptions. In addition, by incorporating sustainability factors, the study provides deeper insights into the drivers of market behavior, supporting more informed portfolio adjustments, risk management strategies, and policy development aimed at fostering resilience and advancing sustainable energy transitions. Full article

Over the past decade, the rapid growth of supply chain finance (SCF) in developing countries has made it a key profit driver for commercial banks and financial firms. In parallel, financial risk control in SCF has attracted more and more attention from financial service providers and has gained research momentum in recent years. This study analyzes the contagion mechanism of SCF-related risks faced by commercial banks through examining SCF network topology. First, this study uses complex network theory to integrate an SEIR epidemic model (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) into financial risk management. The model simulates how financial risks spread in supply chain finance (SCF) under banks’ strategic, tactical, or operational interventions. Then, some key points for financial risk control from the perspective of commercial banks are obtained by investigating the risk stability threshold of the financial network of SCF and its stability. Numerical simulations show that effective interventions—such as strengthening loan guarantees to reduce the number of exposed firms—significantly curb risk transmission by restricting its scope and shortening its duration. This research provides commercial banks with a quantitative framework to analyze risk propagation and actionable strategies to optimize SCF risk control, enhancing financial system stability and offering practical guidance for preventing systemic risks. Full article

This study explores the historical evolution and short-term predictive modeling of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield, a critical indicator in global financial markets. Recognizing its sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, the research integrates economic variables, including the federal funds rate, core Consumer Price Index (CPI), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, and the U.S. federal debt growth rate, to assess their influence on yield movements. Four forecasting models are employed for comparative analysis: linear regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks. Using historical data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), this study finds that the RF model offers the most accurate short-term predictions, achieving the lowest mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), with an R² value of 0.5760. The results highlight the superiority of ensemble-based nonlinear models in capturing complex interactions between economic indicators and yield dynamics. This research not only provides empirical support for using machine learning in economic forecasting but also offers practical implications for bond traders, system developers, and financial institutions aiming to enhance predictive accuracy and risk management. Full article