Search Results (91)

This research challenges the macro-centric narrative of crisis management by examining the socially embedded responses of small business owners during the global COVID-19 pandemic. While the literature frequently prioritizes the structural resilience of large firms, this study utilizes a novel conceptual framework to analyze how social networks, collective identities, and normative motivations shaped the adaptation strategies of over 27,000 entrepreneurs across 43 countries. Our analysis reveals that entrepreneurial agencies are deeply tied to interpersonal influence; expectations for future opportunities were significantly molded by peer effects, while the social contagion of nearby business closures exacerbated perceived impediments to growth. Furthermore, the study highlights a critical divergence based on entrepreneurial identity: family and purpose-driven actors—whose logic is rooted in social stability—suffered a more pronounced decline in innovation following income shocks compared to their wealth-driven counterparts. Finally, the study quantifies a significant structural shift in the entrepreneurial pipeline. While the pandemic triggered a 1.5% increase in potential entrepreneurs (reflecting a shift in societal aspirations), it caused a 2.3% contraction in emerging entrepreneurs, signaling a breakdown in the transition from individual intent to formal social organization. These findings suggest that crisis adaptation is not merely a financial calculation, but a complex negotiation of social support systems, peer-group benchmarking, and institutional trust. Full article

Modern financial systems do not exist in isolation but form part of a complex global network of interconnected financial systems. This globalization of financial systems significantly increases the risk of contagion in financial markets, impacting asset prices and other important economic factors, including interest rates and market volatility. This phenomenon informs not only investors’ investment strategies but also the prices of contingent claims. In this article, we present a derivative pricing model in an incomplete and globalized financial market. To appreciate the dynamics and impact of some important market factors, particularly default risks due to contagion, we consider two different financial markets with defaultable assets: in one market, we consider a stock whose price process follows a Heston stochastic volatility model, and in the other, a stock that follows a Hawkes-type jump diffusion model whose intensity is subjected to external systemic shocks. In both markets, we derive an indifference price for a contingent claim that is subject to the risk of default and show the impacts the investor’s risk aversion and external shocks on the price of the contingent claim. Full article

Assessing ecosystem health in rapidly urbanizing watersheds requires policy-relevant and empirically grounded indicator systems. Focusing on the Luxi River Basin in Chengdu’s Tianfu New Area, this study develops an ecosystem health evaluation and restoration zoning scheme based on the Pressure–State–Response framework (PSR). Utilizing remote sensing land use maps for 2004, 2014, and 2024 with overall accuracy and Kappa above 85% and 0.80, respectively, a 13-indicator PSR health index with entropy-based weighting was constructed at the township and subdistrict scales. Aiming to support objective indicator selection and interpretation, multiscale landscape dynamics were further quantified using FRAGSTATS and moving window analysis, including mean patch area, patch density, landscape shape index, largest patch index, Shannon diversity index, Shannon evenness index, contagion index, and splitting index, and sensitive landscape descriptors and major driving factors were identified. Results show a shift in landscape patterns, from relatively aggregated configurations toward highly complex and fragmented ones. Largest patch dominance, measured by the largest patch index, declined from 66.71 to 22.79, while connectivity, measured by the contagion index, decreased from 59.74 to 45.10. Subdivision, measured by the splitting index, increased from 2.24 to 12.88, and compositional heterogeneity, measured by the Shannon diversity index, increased from 0.86 to 1.26. The PSR assessment indicates that demographic pressure intensified over time, whereas improvements in water resource supply, technological progress, and industrial upgrading partially alleviated overall pressure in some subregions. Ecosystem state exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity, with sustained high health in the eastern Longquan Mountain area and substantial improvement around Xinglong Lake, while northern urbanized and southern agricultural subregions lagged behind. Environmental governance responses strengthened, with the response index increasing from 0.2297 to 0.9885. Overall ecosystem health demonstrated a modest but stable improvement from 2004 to 2024, with 65.48% of the area revealing slight improvement, 1.14% experiencing substantial improvement, 29.62% remaining stable, and 3.76% experiencing slight degradation. Finally, restoration priority zones were delineated, and targeted strategies were introduced to inform basin-scale ecological management in the Luxi River Basin. Full article

Interspecies communication is increasingly recognized as an affective–cognitive process co-created between humans and animals rather than a one-directional transmission of signals. This review integrates findings from ethology, neuroscience, welfare science, behavioral studies, and posthumanist ethics to examine how emotional expression, communicative intentionality, and relational engagement shape understanding across species. Research on primates, dogs, elephants, and marine mammals demonstrates that empathy, consolation, cooperative signaling, and multimodal perception rely on evolutionarily conserved mechanisms, including mirror systems, affective contagion, and oxytocin-mediated bonding. These biological insights intersect with ethical considerations concerning animal agency, methodological responsibility, and the interpretation of non-human communication. Emerging technological tools—bioacoustics, machine vision, and AI-assisted modeling—offer new opportunities to analyze complex vocal and behavioral patterns, yet they require careful contextualization to avoid anthropocentric misclassification. Synthesizing these perspectives, the review proposes a relational framework in which meaning arises through shared emotional engagement, embodied interaction, and ethically grounded interpretation. This approach highlights the importance of welfare-oriented, minimally invasive methodologies and supports a broader shift toward recognizing animals as communicative partners whose emotional lives contribute to scientific knowledge. This review primarily synthesizes empirical and theoretical research on primates and dogs, complemented by selected examples from elephants and marine mammals, which provide the most developed evidence base for the affective–cognitive and relational mechanisms discussed. Full article

Financial crises increasingly exhibit complex, interconnected patterns that traditional risk models fail to capture. The 2008 global financial crisis, 2020 pandemic shock, and recent banking sector stress events demonstrate how systemic risks propagate through multiple channels simultaneously—e.g., network contagion, extreme co-movements, and information cascades—creating a multidimensional phenomenon that exceeds the capabilities of conventional actuarial or econometric approaches alone. This paper addresses the fundamental challenge of modeling this multidimensional systemic risk phenomenon by proposing a mathematically formalized three-tier integration framework that achieves 19.2% accuracy improvement over traditional models through the following: (1) dynamic network-copula coupling that captures 35% more tail dependencies than static approaches, (2) semantic-temporal alignment of textual signals with network evolution, and (3) economically optimized threshold calibration reducing false positives by 35% while maintaining 85% crisis detection sensitivity. Empirical validation on historical data (2000–2023) demonstrates significant improvements over traditional models: 19.2% increase in predictive accuracy (R² from 0.68 to 0.87), 2.7 months earlier crisis detection compared to Basel III credit-to-GDP indicators, and 35% reduction in false positive rates while maintaining 85% crisis detection sensitivity. Case studies of the 2008 crisis and 2020 market turbulence illustrate the model’s ability to identify subtle precursor signals through integrated analysis of network structure evolution and semantic changes in regulatory communications. These advances provide financial regulators and institutions with enhanced tools for macroprudential supervision and countercyclical capital buffer calibration, strengthening financial system resilience against multifaceted systemic risks. Full article

This study selects daily data from 27 fintech companies and 16 listed commercial banks between January 2015 and December 2024 as research samples. Based on complex network theory, we construct an integrated analytical framework encompassing risk measurement, regime identification, and early warning system construction through HD-TVP-VAR model coupled with the Elastic Net algorithm, MS-AR model, and dynamic Logit model. The findings reveal that the total risk spillover rate between fintech and banking ranges from 73.09% to 95.18%, demonstrating significant time-varying and event-driven characteristics in risk contagion. The risk contagion evolution is characterized by three distinct phases: net risk absorption by the banking sector, bidirectional equilibrium contagion, and net risk dominance by the fintech sector. Joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks exhibit higher sensitivity to fintech risks compared to state-owned large commercial banks. Key hubs for risk contagion include institutions like Yinxin Technology and Huaxia Bank, with concentrated risk contagion within industry clusters. The MS-AR model accurately delineates low-, medium-, and high-risk zones, showing strong alignment between high-risk periods and major events. The dynamic Logit model incorporating total risk correlation indices demonstrates high consistency between early warning signals and risk evolution trajectories, providing theoretical and practical references for cross-industry systemic financial risk prevention. Full article

Using a time-frequency and quantile connectedness approach, our study examines the complex return spillovers dynamics between BRICS Plus stock markets, the volatility index (VIX), and the global geopolitical risk index (GPRD). By employing advanced models such as TVP-VAR, quantile connectedness, and spectral decomposition, we demonstrate how these markets interact across different market conditions and periods. Our results indicate that the VIX consistently acts as the dominant net transmitter of shocks, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukraine conflict, and the Trump-era U.S.-China trade tensions. In contrast, the GPRD functions predominantly as a net receiver of shocks, indicating its potential role as a hedge during geopolitical crises. BRICS Plus markets exhibit heterogeneous behavior: Brazil, South Africa, and Russia frequently emerge as net transmitters, while China, India, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE primarily act as net receivers. Spillovers are strongest at the extremes of the return distribution and are mainly driven by short-term dynamics, underscoring the importance of high-frequency reactions over persistent long-term effects. These findings highlight the asymmetric, nonlinear, and state-dependent nature of global financial contagion, offering important insights for risk management, asset allocation, and macroprudential policy design in emerging market contexts. Full article

Against the backdrop of policy-driven transformation in construction industrialization, the EPC general contracting model has emerged as a core pathway for the large-scale development of prefabricated buildings. However, the EPC mode integrates the links of design, procurement, production, and transportation, construction, resulting in a complex coupling correlation among the risk factors of prefabricated construction schedule, which is easy to induce the risk contagion effect and increase the difficulty of risk control of project schedule delay. To address this, this study constructs a hybrid model integrating the “Fuzzy Interpretive Structural Model (FISM)-Coupling Degree Model-Bayesian Network (BN)” to systematically analyze risk contagion mechanisms. Taking an EPC prefabricated building project as an example, FISM is used to reveal the hierarchical structure of risk factors, while the coupling degree model quantifies interaction strengths and maps them into the BN to optimize conditional probability parameters. Through comprehensive hazard analysis, seven key causal risk factors and two critical risk propagation paths are identified. Targeted control measures are designed for the key risk factors, and BN-based simulation is applied to locate critical risk nodes and implement break-chain interventions for the risk paths, resulting in a 23% reduction in the probability of schedule delay. Engineering applications demonstrate that this model can effectively achieve the dynamic identification and blocking of risk paths, providing valuable reference for similar projects and offering informed support for managers in formulating scientific response strategies. Full article

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted adolescent development, increasing behavioral problems and emotional distress. This study aimed to examine the impact of sensation seeking, empathy, and COVID-19-related stressors on deviant behavior in adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 638 Italian adolescents and young adults (M = 18.8 years, SD = 3.51) recruited from schools, universities, and the general population in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna. Participants completed validated measures assessing sensation seeking, empathy, COVID-19-related stress, and deviant behaviors. Multiple regression analyses examined predictors of deviant behavior, while mediation analyses tested whether empathy mediated the relationship between sensation seeking and deviant behavior. Results: Correlation analyses show a positive association between sensation seeking and deviant behavior and a weaker positive association with COVID-19 isolation. Conversely, affective empathy demonstrated negative correlations with both deviant behavior and sensation seeking. COVID-19 stress demonstrated differentiated effects: social isolation increased deviance, whereas fear of contagion was protective. Mediation analysis revealed that affective empathy partially mediated the relationship between sensation seeking and deviance. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that sensation seeking is a primary risk factor for deviant behavior in adolescents and young adults, while affective empathy acts as a protective mechanism that partially mediates this relationship. Furthermore, COVID-19-related stressors have shown complex effects, with social isolation amplifying the risk of deviance, while fear of contagion promotes more inhibited behavior. These findings underscore the importance of considering both stable personality traits and situational stressors when seeking to understand the pathways leading to adolescent behavioral problems during periods of social crisis. Full article

Crude oil and grain, as two pivotal global commodities, exhibit significant price co-movement that profoundly affects national economic stability and food security. From the perspective of systems theory, the energy and grain markets do not exist in isolation but rather form a highly coupled complex system, characterized by nonlinear feedback, cross-market risk contagion, and cascading effects. This study systematically investigates the transmission mechanisms from international crude oil prices to the domestic prices of Chinese four major grains, employing the DY spillover index, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a mediation effect framework. The empirical findings reveal three key insights. First, rising international crude oil prices significantly strengthen the pass-through of global grain prices to domestic markets, while simultaneously weakening the effectiveness of domestic price stabilization policies. Second, higher crude oil prices amplify international-to-domestic price spillovers by increasing maritime freight costs, a key channel in global grain trade logistics. Third, elevated oil prices stimulate demand for renewable biofuels, including biodiesel and ethanol, thereby boosting international demand for corn and soybeans and intensifying the transmission of price fluctuations in these commodities to the domestic market. These findings reveal the key pathways through which shocks in the energy market affect food security and highlight the necessity of studying the “energy–food” coupling mechanism within a systems framework, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of cross-market risk transmission. Full article

The growing complexity of distribution-level virtual power plants (VPPs) demands a rethinking of how flexible demand is modeled, aggregated, and dispatched under uncertainty. Traditional optimization frameworks often rely on deterministic or homogeneous assumptions about end-user behavior, thereby overestimating controllability and underestimating risk. In this paper, we propose a behavior-aware, two-stage stochastic dispatch framework for VPPs that explicitly models heterogeneous user participation via integrated behavioral economics and social interaction structures. At the behavioral layer, user responses to demand response (DR) incentives are captured using a Prospect Theory-based utility function, parameterized by loss aversion, nonlinear gain perception, and subjective probability weighting. In parallel, social influence dynamics are modeled using a peer interaction network that modulates individual participation probabilities through local contagion effects. These two mechanisms are combined to produce a high-dimensional, time-varying participation map across user classes, including residential, commercial, and industrial actors. This probabilistic behavioral landscape is embedded within a scenario-based two-stage stochastic optimization model. The first stage determines pre-committed dispatch quantities across flexible loads, electric vehicles, and distributed storage systems, while the second stage executes real-time recourse based on realized participation trajectories. The dispatch model includes physical constraints (e.g., energy balance, network limits), behavioral fatigue, and the intertemporal coupling of flexible resources. A scenario reduction technique and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) metric are used to ensure computational tractability and robustness against extreme behavior deviations. Full article

Our paper employs complex network theory and the SEIQRS epidemic model based on the dynamics of differential equations to investigate the contagion mechanisms of financial risk within banking systems and to evaluate rescue strategies. A scale-free interbank network of 36 listed Chinese banks is constructed using the minimum-density method. Under the SEIQRS epidemic model, we simulate risk propagation pathways and analyze how key parameters affect systemic risk. Simulation of various rescue interventions demonstrates that, building on the existing support framework, coordinated adjustment of the quarantine rate, exposed-to-infectious transition rate, and quarantine-recovery rate can substantially curb the spread of risk. Among the strategies tested, the high-degree-first rescue strategy yields the best outcomes but requires precise timing, specifically, implementation at the first non-worsening time point. Finally, we offer some policy recommendations, which provide theoretical support and practical enlightenment for preventing cross-system financial risk contagion. Full article

While core-periphery (CP) structures are a fundamental property of many social networks, their influence on information diffusion remains insufficiently understood, especially for complex contagions that require social reinforcement. To address this research gap, this paper investigates the role of core-periphery (CP) structure on information diffusion using the Maki-Thompson model. Both simple contagion and complex contagion scenarios are analyzed through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analysis. Our results reveal several key insights. First, a stronger CP structure facilitates broader information dissemination compared to a weaker core-periphery structure. Second, strong CP networks are particularly vulnerable to targeted interventions; immunizing core nodes is highly effective at impeding diffusion, especially for simple and small-k complex contagions. Third, counterintuitively, CP structure significantly hinders the spread of complex contagions, requiring a higher critical threshold for a global outbreak compared to equivalent random networks. These findings can provide valuable insights into the nuanced role of network topology in shaping information propagation, highlighting that CP structure can both facilitate and hinder diffusion depending on contagion type. Full article

As manufacturing and logistics-oriented supply chains continue to expand in scale and complexity, and the coupling between their physical execution layers and information–decision layers deepens, the resulting high interdependence within the system significantly increases overall fragility. Driven by key technological barriers, economies of scale, and the trend toward resource centralization, supply chains have increasingly evolved into centralized structures, with critical functions such as decision-making highly concentrated in a few focal firms. While this configuration may enhance coordination under normal conditions, it also significantly increases dependency on focal nodes. Once a focal node is disrupted, the intense task, information, and risk loads it carries cannot be effectively dispersed across the network, thereby amplifying load spillovers, coordination imbalances, and information delays, and ultimately triggering large-scale cascading failures. To capture this phenomenon, this study develops a coupled network model comprising a Physical Network and an Information and Decision Risk Network. The Physical Network incorporates a tri-load coordination mechanism that distinguishes among theoretical operational load (capacity), actual production load (production output), and actual delivery load (order fulfillment), using a load sensitivity coefficient to describe the asymmetric propagation among them. The Information and Decision Risk Network is further divided into a communication subnetwork, which represents transmission efficiency and delay, and a decision risk subnetwork, which reflects the diffusion of uncertainty and risk contagion caused by information delays. A discrete-event simulation approach is employed to evaluate system resilience under various failure modes and parametric conditions. The results reveal the following: (1) under a centralized structure, poorly allocated redundancy can worsen local imbalances and amplify disruptions; (2) the failure of a focal firm is more likely to cause a full network collapse; and (3) node failures in the Communication System Network have a greater destabilizing effect than those in the Physical Network. Full article

Eco-migration (EM) constitutes a specialized form of migration aimed at enhancing living environments and alleviating ecological pressure. Nevertheless, large-scale external migration has intensified habitat fragmentation (HF) in resettlement areas. This paper takes the Shule River Resettlement Project (SRRP) as a case, based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) data of the resettlement area from 1996 to 2020, using the Landscape Pattern Index (LPI) and the land use transfer matrix (LTM) to clearly define the stages of migration and the types of resettlement areas and to quantitative explore how EM affects HF. The results show that (1) EM accelerates the transformation of natural habitats (NHs) to artificial habitats (AHs) and shows the characteristics of sudden changes in the initial stage (1996–2002), with stability in the middle stage (2002–2006) and late stage (2007–2010) and dramatic changes in the post-migration stage (2011–2020). In IS, MS, LS, and PS, AH increased by 26.145 km², 21.573 km², 22.656 km², and 16.983 km², respectively, while NH changed by 73.116 km², −21.575 km², −22.655 km², −121.82 km², and −213.454 km², respectively. The more dispersed the resettlement areas are the more obvious the expansion of AH will be, indicating that the resettlement methods for migrants have a significant effect on habitat changes. (2) During the resettlement process, the total number of plaques (NP), edge density (ED), diversity (SHDI), and dominance index (SHEI) all continued to increase, while the contagion index (C) and aggregation index (AI) continued to decline, indicating that the habitat is transforming towards fragmentation, diversification, and complexity. Compared with large-scale migration bases (LMBs), both small-scale migration bases (SMBs), and scattered migration settlement points (SMSPs) exhibit a higher degree of HF, which reflects how the scale of migration influences the extent of habitat fragmentation. While NHs are experiencing increasing fragmentation, AHs tend to show a decreasing trend in fragmentation. Ecological migrants play a dual role: they contribute to the alteration and fragmentation of natural habitat patterns, while simultaneously promoting the formation and continuity of artificial habitat structures. This study offers valuable practical insights and cautionary lessons for the resettlement of ecological migrants. Full article