Search Results (29)

Both the CESM-simulated NNU-2K dataset and proxy reconstructions of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation over the past two millennia reveal a significant centennial-scale period, including periodicities of 105, 150, and 200 years. The 105- and 200-year cycles identified in the NNU-2K all-forcing (AF) experiment closely match those found in the volcanic single-forcing (Vol) experiment, suggesting that volcanic activity is a major driver of these variations. Volcanic forcing induces global cooling, which reduces the land–sea thermal contrast and weakens the monsoon circulation. Furthermore, stronger cooling in the Northern Hemisphere decreases the interhemispheric temperature gradient and weakens the trans-equatorial pressure gradient. This, in turn, suppresses cross-equatorial low-level flow from the Southern Hemisphere, further reducing ISM precipitation. The 105- and 150-year periodicities are also consistent with those in the total solar irradiance (TSI) single-forcing experiment, indicating a substantial response to solar variability. Increased solar irradiance enhances Northern Hemisphere warming, strengthening both the interhemispheric temperature gradient and the cross-equatorial pressure gradient. These changes facilitate stronger northward cross-equatorial flow in the lower troposphere, intensifying the ISM and increasing precipitation. Concurrently, solar forcing amplifies the thermal contrast between the Eurasian continent and the Indian Ocean, further reinforcing monsoon circulation. The 150-year cycle is also evident in the control (Ctrl) experiment, implicating internal climate variability as an additional mechanism. Analysis reveals a quasi-decadal Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Pacific. Its negative phase is linked to reduced sea-level pressure over the ISM region, enhanced low-level convergence, and increased precipitation. It also strengthens the Mascarene High over the Indian Ocean, intensifying the Somali Jet and southwesterly monsoon winds, which promote greater moisture transport into the ISM domain. Full article

Understanding long-term cloud cover variability is essential for assessing past climate dynamics and human influences on atmospheric conditions. In Padua, instrumental weather records (temperature, precipitation, pressure) and descriptive sky observations date back to 1725, but quantitative cloud cover data, expressed as tenths of the sky covered by clouds, began in 1872 at the Astronomical Observatory. From 1920 to 1989, observations continued under the authority of the Meteorological Observatory of the Water Magistrate, and from 1951 to 1990, additional records by the Italian Air Force expressed in eighths of sky are available. These visual datasets—based on multiple daily observations—are complemented by satellite records (from 1983) and reanalysis such as ERA5 (from 1940) and NOAA 20CRv3 (from 1872 to 2015). The aim of this study is to reconstruct a homogenized, long-term total cloud cover (TCC) time series for Padua from 1872 to 2024, integrating all available observational sources. By comparing overlapping periods across different subseries and nearby ground-based stations, the analysis not only investigates consistency and potential discontinuities across datasets but also quantifies the reliability and limitations of historical visual observations. This work provides one of the few centennial-scale reconstructions of cloud cover in Europe, offering a valuable contribution to historical climatology and climate change studies. Full article

This study investigates the long-term variability and extremes of monthly precipitation during 150 years or more at 4 locations in Argentina: Corrientes, Córdoba, Buenos Aires, and Bahía Blanca. Annual and seasonal trends, extreme dry and wet months over the whole period, and the relationships between large-scale climate drivers and monthly rainfall are considered. Results show that, except for Córdoba, the complete anomaly timeseries trend analysis for all other stations yielded null trends over the centennial study period. Considerable month-to-month variability is observed for all locations together with the existence of low-frequency decadal to interdecadal variability, both for monthly precipitation anomalies and for statistically significant excess and deficit months. Linear fits considering oceanic climate indicators as drivers of variability yield significant differences between locations, while not between full records and seasonally sampled. Issues regarding the use of linear analysis to quantify variability, the dispersion along the timeline of record extreme rainy months at each location, together with the evidence of severe daily precipitation events not necessarily coinciding with the ranking of the rainiest months at each location, highlights the challenges of understanding the drivers of variability of both monthly and severe daily precipitation and the need of using extended centennial timeseries whenever possible. Full article

Reconstructing historical grazing intensity is essential for understanding long-term human–environment interactions in arid and semi-arid regions. However, historical documents often lack continuous, site-specific information on land use and grazing pressure. We present a high-resolution reconstruction of pastoral activity and hydrological evolution since 1560 AD using fungal spore assemblages from a 92 cm lacustrine-peat sequence from the Sichanghu (SCH) peatland on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Quantitative analysis of coprophilous fungal spores and principal component analysis (PCA) of spore influxes identify three distinct phases of pastoral intensity: gradual intensification from 1560 to 1730 AD, a sharp decline from 1730 to 1770 AD, and rapid intensification from 1770 AD to the present. These transitions are consistent with historical records of land use and human migration in Xinjiang. Additionally, fungal assemblages reveal a long-term drying trend at Sichanghu, broadly consistent with regional aridification in northwestern China. However, centennial-scale discrepancies in humidity between local and regional records—particularly during the late Little Ice Age—indicate that local hydrological responses were strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances. This study highlights the value of fungal spores, particularly influx-based interpretations, as robust indicators of both human activities and hydroclimatic variability. It also underscores the importance of integrating local and regional signals when reconstructing past environmental changes in sensitive dryland ecosystems. Full article

The forest ecosystems of large Mediterranean islands are critical hubs of evolutionary diversity with unique floristic composition and distinctive vegetation patterns reflecting long-term population dynamics and ecological legacies. Mediterranean islands provide invaluable natural archives, preserving crucial insights into the resilience of past forest ecosystems and their responses to climate variability. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the Holocene vegetation history of major western Mediterranean islands, with the twofold aim of examining the timing, extent, and rates of vegetation changes over the last few thousand years, and evaluating the influence of Rapid Climate Changes (RCCs) on forest ecosystems. The rate of change analysis allowed the identification of a distinct pattern of rapid shifts in forest composition, corresponding to periods of climate instability. These shifts align with the periodicity of Bond events, suggesting synchronicity between changes in forest ecosystems and centennial-scale climatic oscillations at a supra-regional scale. A REDFIT spectral analysis applied to palynological proxies of forest cover changes identified prominent periodicities suggesting a direct influence of solar activity and/or a relation with complex ocean–atmosphere circulation mechanisms triggered by global climate forcings. Full article

Building shoreline position databases able to capture event- to centennial-scale coastal changes is critical for scientists to improve knowledge of past coastal dynamics and predict future changes. Thanks to the commissioning of several satellites acquiring recurrent high-resolution optical images over coastal areas, coastal scientists have developed methods for detecting the shoreline position from satellite images in most parts of the world. These methods use image band analyses to delineate the waterline and require post-processing to produce time-consistent satellite-derived shorelines. However, the detection accuracy generally decreases with increasing tidal range. This work investigates an alternative approach for meso- and macrotidal coasts, which relies on the delineation of the boundary between dry and wet sand surfaces. The method was applied to the high-energy meso-macrotidal km-scale Cap Ferret sand spit, SW France, which has undergone large and contrasted shoreline changes over the last decades. Comparisons with topographic surveys conducted at Cap Ferret between 2014 and 2020 have shown that the raw satellite-derived wet/dry line reproduces well the mean high water shoreline, with an overall bias of 1.7 m, RMSE of 20.2 m, and R2 of 0.86. Building on this, the shoreline variability at Cap Ferret was investigated over the 1984–2021 period. Results have evidenced an alongshore gradient in the dominant modes of variability in the last 2 km of the sand spit. Near the tip, the shoreline has chronically retreated on the decadal scale at about 8.4 m/year and has been strongly affected on the interannual scale by the onset and migration of shoreline undulations having a wavelength of 500–1200 m and a cross-shore amplitude of 100–200 m. Some 3 km away from the sand spit extremity, the shoreline has been relatively stable in the long term, with a dominance of seasonal and interannual variability. This work brings new arguments for using the wet/dry line to monitor shoreline changes from spatial imagery at meso- and macrotidal sandy coasts. Full article

A detailed high-resolution study of climate and vegetation changes in two sedimentary profiles from the Godavari delta in India was conducted to understand extreme climate variability over the last 3000 years. These historical climate records are vital for predicting future climate changes influenced by increased human activity. Pollen records reveal several climatic periods: (1) an initial warm/humid phase (2260–1560 cal yr BP) with mangrove and tropical tree pollen and maximum pollen accumulation rate (PARmax), (2) a gradual shift to drier conditions with reduced mangrove and arboreal pollen, coinciding with to the Dark Ages Cold Period (1580–1070 cal yr BP), (3) a Medieval Warm Period (1090–580 cal yr BP) marked by a stronger summer monsoon, rejuvenation of mangroves and tree pollen, (4) a relatively cool and dry phase with abundant dry deciduous and non-arboreal pollen possibly linked to the Little Ice Age (580–80 cal yr BP), showing a weakened monsoon, and (5) recent warming since 80 cal yr BP. A semi-quantitative aridity, temperature, and moisture index based on pollen concentration variations have also been used to identify centennial-scale climatic cycles in the pollen record. Full article

Advances in reconstructing the East Asian monsoon have provided important insights into the natural climate variability in Asia during the pre-instrumental period. However, there are still unresolved paleoclimate issues that necessitate the use of geological proxy data to further our understanding of past climate changes. This study focused on core B13, located in the muddy area of the North Yellow Sea (NYS), to investigate the evolutionary history over the past 1500 years and reconstruct the records of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Yellow Sea warm current (YSWC). The mean grain size of sediment ranged from 4.2 Φ to 5.6 Φ, with the sorting coefficient ranging from 1.9 to 2.2, indicating poor sorting. The C–M pattern showed a limited range of values, with the M values being between 33 and 83 μm and the C values being between 165 and 287 μm, suggesting uniform-suspension transport. The L* index ranged from 40.41 to 44.12, while the a* and b* indexes ranged from 0.55 to 1.78 and 2.86 to 5.94, respectively. A stable and relatively strong sedimentary environment is indicated through a comprehensive analysis of the C–M plot, triangular plot, the relationship between the mean grain size and sorting, and the changes in grain-size and color parameters. The sedimentary evolution in the muddy area of the NYS over the past 1500 years can be categorized into three distinct stages. In this study, proxies for the EASM and YSWC were extracted using the VPCA method from the sediment grain size and diffuse spectral reflectance (DSR) data, respectively. The reliability of these proxies has been confirmed through comparison with other validated proxies. The results indicated that the strength of the EASM and YSWC also exhibited three stages, corresponding to the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP), Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and Little Ice Age (LIA), respectively. On a centennial scale, the correlation between the EASM and YSWC was predominantly negative. This research validates the reliability of the VPCA method for paleoclimate reconstruction, contributes important climate records in a special muddy area, and provides a new perspective on how to eliminate temporal errors in verifying the correlation between the two climate systems. Full article

A high-resolution climate archive was reconstructed based on carbon isotope analysis and radiocarbon dating of the Chapman baobab in northeastern Botswana. The Chapman baobab, which exhibited an open ring-shaped structure composed of six stems, collapsed in January 2016 during an intense El Niño event. Two samples belonging to the oldest stems were investigated in order to obtain a proxy rainfall record, which provides insight into the precipitation regime over the last millennium, evincing centennial and decadal scale variability. The results indicate that the Medieval Warm Period was marked by relatively stable precipitation, whereas rainfall variability and drought frequency increased during the Little Ice Age. The investigated area has experienced both wetter and drier conditions in the past. The wettest conditions of the last millennium were registered before 1450 while the driest period occurred in 1835. For southern Africa, inter-annual rainfall variability is mainly associated with sea surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current core region, which determine the east–west displacement of tropical temperate troughs. Previous studies suggested that positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the Mozambique Channel led to an eastward movement of the troughs but the Chapman record demonstrates a westward displacement in the past, causing drought in northeastern South Africa and wetter conditions in the central part of southern Africa. The positive rainfall correlation with SST anomalies reversed after 1900, causing a gradual decrease in precipitation and confirming the current aridity trend for Botswana. The results contribute to a better understanding of the past climate of southern Africa for which paleoclimate reconstructions remain scarce. Full article

Under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate have increased, especially extreme high temperatures. In order to correctly predict the changes in the extreme high temperatures in summer in China in this century, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the extreme high temperatures in summer on the centennial timescale. Many researchers have explored the mechanism of the influences of the variability of the solar cycle on climate change, while the mechanism of the influences of the centennial variation of solar activity on climate change remains elusive. Here, we use the outputs from the Control (CTRL) experiment, Total solar irradiance and Orbital (TSI_ORB) experiment, and Orbital (ORB) experiment from Nanjing Normal University-Holocene (NNU-Hol) experiments to study the extreme high temperatures in summer in China during the Holocene. On the basis of verifying the consistency of the centennial period between the TSI (TSI_ORB minus ORB plus CTRL) experiment and the reconstructed data, we compared the centennial variation characteristics of the summer extreme high temperature in the CTRL experiment and the TSI experiment. It shows that under the modulation of total solar irradiance, the centennial spatial pattern of the summer extreme high temperatures changed from dipole mode to uniform mode, with 300-year and 500-year periodicity, compared to the influence of only internal variability. On the centennial time scale, the greatest difference is located in northeast China. The subsidence movement and the reduction of cloud cover caused by the anticyclone under the control of high-pressure lead to the increase of downward solar radiation, thus making a positive center is showed in northeast China on the impacts of total solar irradiance. Furthermore, the center of the Rossby wave train in the barotropic structure of the upper circulation related to the summer extreme high temperature significantly moves northward. This barotropic structure is composed of continuous pressure ridges from Eurasia to North America and the North Atlantic, which is conducive to the increase of the summer extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, we investigated the underlying physical mechanisms. Under the influence of total solar irradiance, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with the same centennial cycle as extreme high temperatures lead to obvious subsidence movement and increase of radiation flux, causing an increase in extreme high temperatures over northeast China. Full article

It is a difficult and hot issue in the hydrological studies of arid areas to choose suitable methods to evaluate the recharge of atmospheric precipitation to groundwater and its response to climate change in desert areas. This study reviews the theories and problems of vadose (unsaturated)-zone tracing methods selected by predecessors in hydrological studies and takes the deserts in middle latitudes of northern China as an example to extract decadal, centennial, and millennian information of atmospheric precipitation to groundwater recharge on a regional scale since the late Holocene. The fluctuations of atmospheric precipitation and chronological sequences of desert unsaturated zone were estimated by using the chlorine mass balance (CMB) theory. It indicates that the Badain Jaran Desert in the central Alashan Plateau and the surrounding Gobi deserts have experienced fluctuations of groundwater recharge on a centennial scale during the late Holocene period from about 700 to 2000 years ago. Multiple CMB profile records can identify four periods of relative wetness (1330–1430, 1500–1620, 1700–1780, and 1950–1990) and three periods of relative drought (1430–1500, 1620–1700, and 1900–1950) over the past millennium. These records are consistent with other paleoclimatic records in the northern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and relatively correspond to those in the eastern part of China. This indicates that groundwater recharge in the Alashan Plateau broadly reflects the degree of climatic variability in northwest China over the centennial scale and may be affected by the changes in the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon. The estimated average recharge rate of precipitation in the Alashan Plateau in the last millennium is about 1.3~2.6 mm/a, which brings new geological evidence for understanding the source of groundwater recharge in the region but is quite different from other environmental records. It should be noted that there are uncertainties in the CMB records of the vadose zone profiles, mainly due to the assumption of atmospheric Cl input in the CMB estimation and the selection of the homogeneous vadose profile (piston flow). This study suggests that this uncertainty and its error should be extensively tested in the future by comparing deterministic data (such as regional reference stations) with large-scale random atmospheric Cl input backgrounds. Full article

The common methods used for grain-size analysis have their own deficiencies and limitations in terms of explaining the genesis of grain-size components. In this study, the end-member modeling analysis method is applied to multi-mode grain-size distributions of core sediment from Anguli-nuur lake to help to understand the sediment provenance, transport processes and sedimentary environment. Four optimal end-members are unmixed, and three transport-deposition processes are revealed, including the runoff, wave and aeolian processes. The humidity index synthesized by the runoff and aeolian end-members in the core sediment is used to reconstruct the humidity variability in the East Asian monsoonal domain since the last deglaciation. Our record shows that the patterns of humidity variability are coincidentally linked with the monsoonal precipitation index from the same core and stalagmite record in southern China. The Holocene optimum is identified in early and middle Holocene. In addition, a series of millennial- and multi-centennial-scale dry events documented in our record are well correlated with the ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic. The results reveal that the grain-size record from Anguli-nuur lake is sensitive in response to moisture variability in northern China. Full article

During the last glacial, Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are mostly characterized by moderate and shorter fluctuations. Here, we present the three-year-resolution stalagmite isotopic record from Shouyuangong Cave (SYG), southern China, revealing a detailed history of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and local environmental changes during the middle and late period of DO 14. During this period, the SYG1 δ¹⁸O is characterized by the persistence of centennial-scale oscillations. These centennial δ¹⁸O enrichment excursions are clearly mirrored in the δ¹³C signal. This correlation suggests that changes in soil CO₂ production at this site are closely correlated with centennial-scale ASM variability. Furthermore, power spectrum analysis shows that δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C display the common periodicities consistent with solar activity cycles, implicating a control of solar activity on the ASM and soil humidity. Particularly, weak solar activity generally corresponds to weak ASM and a decline in soil CO₂ production. One possible link between them is that external forcing controls the ASM intensity via the thermal contrast between the ocean and land. Subsequently, the balance of soil moisture co-varies with the hydrological responses. Finally, the soil CO₂ production is further amplified by ecological effect. Full article

Drought imposes serious challenges to ecosystems and societies and has plagued mankind throughout the ages. To understand the long-term trend of drought in China, a series of annual self-calibrating Palmer drought severity indexes (scPDSI), which is a semi-physical drought index based on the land surface water balance, were reconstructed during AD 56~2000. Multi-proxy records of tree-ring width and stalagmite oxygen isotope δ¹⁸O were used for this reconstruction, along with random forest regression. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the reconstruction results were analyzed, and comparisons were made with previous studies. Results showed that (1) China witnessed a drought-based state during the past 2000 years (mean value of scPDSI was −0.3151), with an average annual drought area of 85,000 km²; 4 wetting periods, i.e., the Han Dynasty (AD 56~220), the Tang Dynasty (AD 618~907), the Ming Dynasty (AD 1368~1644), and the Qing Dynasty (AD 1644~1912); and 2 drying periods, i.e., the Era of Disunity (AD 221~580) and the Song Dynasty (AD 960~1279). (2) Three different alternating fluctuation dry-wet modes (i.e., interannual, multidecadal, and centennial scales) in China were all significantly (p-value < 0.001) correlated with the amplitude and frequency of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. (3) According to the spatial models disassembled from the rotated empirical orthogonal function, China was divided into nine dry-wet regions: northwestern China, Xinjiang, southwestern China, southeastern China, the Loess plateau, central China, southwestern Tibet, eastern China, and northeastern China. (4) The random forest (RF) was found to be accurate and stable for the reconstruction of drought variability in China compared with linear regression. Full article

Ecological connectivity among protected Natura 2000 sites is a priority for conservation in Europe due to the increasing pressure on biodiversity from human activities and climate change. Drove roads, the traditional paths used to move livestock through the territory, have been proposed as potential ecological corridors due to their large extent, continuous nature and centennial protection from ploughing and urbanization, which allows the persistence of some tree cover and natural habitats in them. Bird communities were sampled during the reproductive season along 19 drove road transects in agrarian landscapes between Natura 2000 sites, all of them around the conurbation of Madrid (Madrid Region, Spain). Bird community nestedness was assessed by NODF computation followed by significance estimation by aleatorization, and factors explaining species richness and bird abundance were analyzed through General Linear Models fitted with environmental variables measured on official vegetation maps and orthophotos. Bird communities in drove roads were significantly nested, showing high predictability in the order of species loss from better preserved sites to those under stronger environmental pressures. Accordingly, Poisson regression showed bird richness to decrease strongly with distance from the closest Natura 2000 site and to increase with forest cover at the landscape and at the drove road scales. Bird abundance increased strongly with distance from urban areas and motorways, and it was slightly higher in areas with more forest cover and in transects with less bare ground. These results, and the higher relevance detected for landscape scale variables (500 m around transects) than for those at the drove road (50 m) scale, show that (i) they can only play a secondary role as habitat for nesting birds but (ii) they may add to the Green Infrastructure strategy as facilitators or stepping stones for bird communities if the surrounding landscape is favorable for them. Full article