Search Results (136)

Regional ecological environmental quality (EEQ) is a vital indicator for environmental management and supporting sustainable development. However, the absence of robust and accurate EEQ prediction models has hindered effective environmental strategies. This study proposes a novel approach to address this gap by integrating the ecological index (EI) model with several predictive models, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and cellular automata (CA), to forecast regional EEQ. Initially, the spatiotemporal evolution of the input data used to calculate the EI score was analyzed. Subsequently, tailored prediction models were developed for each dataset. These models were sequentially trained and validated, and their outputs were integrated into the EI model to enhance the accuracy and coherence of the final EEQ predictions. The novelty of this methodology lies not only in integrating existing predictive models but also in employing an innovative fusion technique that significantly improves prediction accuracy. Despite data quality issues in the case study dataset led to higher prediction errors in certain regions, the overall results exhibit a high degree of accuracy. A comparison of long-term EI predictions with EI assessment results reveals that the R² value for the EI score exceeds 0.96, and the kappa value surpasses 0.76 for the EI level, underscoring the robust performance of the integrated model in forecasting regional EEQ. This approach offers valuable insights into exploring regional EEQ trends and future challenges. Full article

Rapid urbanization and industrial development have significantly altered land use and cover across the globe, intensifying urban thermal environments and exacerbating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Gujranwala, Pakistan, represents an industrial growth that has driven substantial land use/land cover (LULC) changes and temperature increases; however, the directional and distance-based patterns of these changes remain unquantified. Therefore, this study is conducted to examine spatiotemporal changes in LULC and variations in the Urban Thermal Field Variation Index (UTFVI) between 2001 and 2021 and to project future scenarios for 2031 and 2041 using (1) Earth Observation Indices (EOIs) with machine learning (ML) classifiers (Random Forest) for precise LULC mapping through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, (2) Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Networks (CA-ANNs) for future scenario projection, and (3) Gradient Directional Analysis (GDA) to quantify directional (16-axis) and distance-based (concentric zones) patterns of urban expansion and thermal variation from 2001–2021. The study revealed significant LULC changes, with built-up areas expanding by 7.5% from 2001 to 2021, especially in the east, northeast, and southeast directions within a 20 km radius. Due to urban encroachment, vegetation and cropland decreased by 1.47% and 1.83%, respectively. The urban thermal environment worsened, with the highest land surface temperature (LST) rising from 41 °C in 2001 to 55 °C in 2021. Additionally, the UTFVI showed expanding areas under the ‘strong’ and ‘strongest’ categories, increasing from 30.58% in 2001 to 33.42% in 2041. Directional analysis highlighted severe thermal stress in the southern and southwestern areas linked to industrial activities and urban sprawl. This integrated approach provides a template for analyzing urban thermal environments in developing cities, supporting targeted mitigation strategies through direction- and distance-specific planning interventions to mitigate UHI impacts. Full article

The conservation and monitoring of land cover represent crucial elements for sustainable regional development, especially in fragile high Andean ecosystems. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Locumba basin over the period of 1984–2023. A hybrid modeling approach combining artificial neural networks (ANN) and cellular automata (CA) was employed to project future changes for 2033, 2043, and 2053. The results reveal a significant reduction in glaciers and lagoons throughout the Locumba basin, with notable declines from 1984 to 2023, while vegetated areas, particularly grasslands and wetlands, experienced substantial expansion. Specifically, grasslands increased by 273.7% relative to their initial coverage, growing from 57.87 km² in 1984 to over 220.31 km² in 2023, with projections indicating continued growth to over 331.62 km² by 2053. This multitemporal analysis provides crucial information for anticipating future land dynamics and underscores the urgent need for strategic conservation planning to mitigate the continued loss of strategic ecosystems in the high Andean region of Tacna. Full article

Land use and land cover (LULC) in Northern Bangladesh have undergone substantial transformations due to both anthropogenic and natural drivers. This study examines historical LULC changes (1990–2022) and projects future trends for 2030 and 2054 using remote sensing and the Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified with 80.75–86.23% accuracy (Kappa: 0.75–0.81). Model validation comparing simulated and actual 2014 data yielded 79.98% accuracy, indicating a reasonably good performance given the region’s rapidly evolving and heterogeneous landscape. The results reveal a significant decline in waterbodies, which is projected to shrink by 34.4% by 2054, alongside a 1.21% reduction in cropland raising serious environmental and food security concerns. Vegetation, after an initial massive decrease (1990–2014), increased (2014–2022) due to different forms of agroforestry practices and is expected to increase by 4.64% by 2054. While the model demonstrated fair predictive power, its moderate accuracy highlights challenges in forecasting LULC in areas characterized by informal urbanization, seasonal land shifts, and riverbank erosion. These dynamics limit prediction reliability and reflect the region’s ecological vulnerability. The findings call for urgent policy action particularly afforestation, water resource management, and integrated land use planning to ensure environmental sustainability and resilience in this climate-sensitive area. Full article

The construction of transition rules is the core and difficulty faced by the cellular automata (CA) model. Dynamic mining of transition rules can more accurately simulate urban land use change. By introducing a graph attention network (GAT) to mine CA model transition rules, the temporal and spatial dynamics of the model are increased based on the construction of a real-time dynamic graph structure. At the same time, by adding an agent-based model (ABM) to the CA model, the simulation evolution of different human decision-making behaviors can be achieved. Based on this, an urban expansion scenario prediction (UESP) model has been proposed: (1) the UESP model employs a multi-head attention mechanism to dynamically capture high-order spatial dependencies, supporting the efficient processing of large-scale datasets with over 50,000 points of interest (POIs); (2) it incorporates the behaviors of agents such as residents, governments, and transportation systems to more realistically reflect human micro-level decision-making; and (3) by integrating macro-structural learning with micro-behavioral modeling, it effectively addresses the existing limitations in representing high-order spatial relationships and human decision-making processes in urban expansion simulations. Based on the policy context of the Outline of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) Coordinated Development Plan, four development scenarios were designed to simulate construction land change by 2030. The results show that (1) the UESP model achieved an overall accuracy of 0.925, a Kappa coefficient of 0.878, and a FoM index of 0.048, outperforming traditional models, with the FoM being 3.5% higher; (2) through multi-scenario simulation prediction, it is found that under the scenario of ecological conservation and farmland protection, forest and grassland increase by 3142 km², and cultivated land increases by 896 km², with construction land showing a concentrated growth trend; and (3) the expansion of construction land will mainly occur at the expense of farmland, concentrated around Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, and southern core cities in Hebei, forming a “core-driven, axis-extended, and cluster-expanded” spatial pattern. Full article

Indonesia faces significant challenges in meeting food security targets due to rapid agricultural land loss, with approximately 1.22 million hectares of rice fields converted between 1990 and 2022. Therefore, this study developed a prediction model for the loss of rice fields by 2030, incorporating land productivity attributes, specifically rice cropping intensity/RCI, using geospatial technology—a novel method with a resolution of approximately 10 m for quantifying ecosystem service (ES) impacts. Land use/land cover data from Landsat images (2013, 2020, 2024) were classified using the Random Forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine. The prediction model was developed using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Cellular Automata (MLP-NN Markov-CA) algorithms. Additionally, time series Sentinel-1A satellite imagery was processed using K-means and a hierarchical clustering analysis to map rice fields and their RCI. The validation process confirmed high model robustness, with an MLP-NN Markov-CA accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 83.90% and 0.91, respectively. The present study, which was conducted in Indramayu Regency (West Java), predicted that 1602.73 hectares of paddy fields would be lost within 2020–2030, specifically 980.54 hectares (61.18%) and 622.19 hectares (38.82%) with 2 RCI and 1 RCI, respectively. This land conversion directly threatens ES, resulting in a projected loss of 83,697.95 tons of rice production, which indicates a critical degradation of service provisioning. The findings provide actionable insights for land use planning to reduce agricultural land conversion while outlining the urgency of safeguarding ES values. The adopted method is applicable to regions with similar characteristics. Full article

From a space-time perspective, this paper constructs a CA-SHIRS model to study the psychosocial resonance diffusion of food safety risk, using complex network and cellular automata theory. The CA-SHIRS model is a framework that combines cellular automata with SHIRS (Susceptible–Hidden–Infected–Recovered–Susceptible) epidemic modeling. This methodological integration can effectively reflect local interactions and spatial distribution among consumers. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the diffusion mechanism and spatial–temporal evolution of the psychosocial resonance of food safety risk, considering the interaction between consumer heterogeneity and media communication strategies. The primary conclusions are outlined as follows: (1) An increase in infection probability, conversion probability, and immune failure probability causes the psychosocial resonance of food safety risk to spread rapidly across different regions and populations. In contrast, an increase in immune probability helps control the psychosocial resonance of food safety risk. (2) The diffusion threshold of the psychosocial resonance of food safety risk is negatively related to the consumer risk perception level, consumer risk attention, media freedom, and media report authenticity. However, it is positively correlated with consumer sentiment, market noise, and media report tendency. (3) The consumer risk perception level, consumer risk attention, media freedom, and media report authenticity can effectively inhibit the spatial–temporal diffusion of the psychosocial resonance of food safety risk. On the other hand, increases in market noise, consumer sentiment, and media report tendency accelerate the spread of the psychosocial resonance of food safety risk across different regions. Full article

In a world experiencing rapid urbanization, the phenomenon of land surface temperature (LST) variation has invited substantial attention due to its profound impact on the environment and human well-being. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) within urban areas significantly influence the dynamics of LST and are a major driver of urban eco-environmental change. The complex connections between LULC dynamics, LST, and climate change are investigated in this systematic review, with a focus on the combined effects of these variables and the use of Machine Learning (ML) techniques. The data in this study, based on peer-reviewed publications from the past 25 years, were obtained from Science Direct and Web of Science databases. Based on our findings, Landsat is the most widely used dataset for analyzing the impacts of LULC on LST. Additionally, built-up areas, vegetation, and population density had the biggest effects on LST values based on focused studies. This systematic review reveals that Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov), and Random Forest (RF) are the most used ML techniques in predicting LULC and LST. The study finds that NDBI and NDVI are recognized as the key LULC indices that have strong correlations with LST. We also highlight key LULC classes that have the most impact on LST variation. To validate the results, these studies employ Pearson correlation, the NDVI and NDBI index, and other linear regression methods. This review concludes by highlighting future research directions and the current need for interdisciplinary efforts to address the intricate dynamics of LULC and the Earth’s surface temperature. Full article

The Colombian Coffee Cultural Landscape (CCLC), a UNESCO World Heritage site, faces conservation threats due to changes in land use and land cover (LULC). This study analyzed and predicted the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC in the CCLC from 2014 to 2034, assessing its effects on the landscape structure. The analyses identified negative impacts and provided insights for developing conservation and land use planning strategies aimed at comprehensive landscape management. A supervised classification methodology using the Random Forest algorithm was implemented by integrating multispectral (Landsat 8) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data (Sentinel-1), achieving an overall accuracy of 87.88% and a Kappa coefficient of 84.20%. Future projections were conducted using a hybrid Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network model (CA-ANN), reaching an accuracy of 88.12% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.84. The results indicate urban expansion, increasing from 1.46% in 2014 to 15.64% by 2034, accompanied by a forest cover loss of 77.8% and a reduction in coffee-growing areas from 77.91% in 2019 to 68.40% by 2034. Landscape metric analysis revealed increased fragmentation and spatial heterogeneity. The integration of multisensor remote sensing, hybrid predictive models, and landscape metrics within the CCLC provides a quantitative methodological framework to evaluate the transformation of cultural landscapes under anthropogenic pressures. Full article

The increasing severity of the urban heat island (UHI) effect is a consequence of rapid urban expansion and global climate change. The urban center of Da Nang, Vietnam, is currently experiencing severe UHI effects combined with increasingly frequent heatwaves. This study employs advanced machine learning techniques—including natural gradient boosting machine and deep neural network—to model the spatial variation in UHI intensity. The explanatory variables include topographical features, distances to coastlines and rivers, land cover types, built-up density, greenspace density, bareland density, waterbody density, and distance to wetlands. Experimental results show that the machine learning models successfully explain 90% of the variation in UHI intensity. To identify the primary factors influencing UHI intensity, Shapley additive explanations are utilized. Additionally, a neural network-based cellular automata model is implemented to project future land cover changes. The proposed framework is then employed to forecast UHI intensity in Da Nang’s urban center in 2040. Based on the prediction results, the area with extremely high UHI intensity is expected to increase by 3.7%. The area with high UHI intensity is projected to rise by 4.6%, while the area with medium UHI intensity is anticipated to expand by 12.6%. Notably, it is forecasted that the areas with extremely low and low UHI intensity are forecasted to decrease by 3.9% and 40.8%, respectively. The findings from this study can be useful to assist urban planners in establishing effective mitigation strategies for reducing the impact of UHI effects. Full article

In this paper, we focus on developing self-organizing algorithms aimed at solving, in a distributed way, the coverage problem in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). For this purpose, we apply a game-theoretical framework based on an application of a variant of the Spatial Prisoner’s Dilemma game. The framework is used to build a multi-agent system, where agent-players in the process of iterated games tend to achieve a Nash equilibrium, providing them the possible maximal values of payoffs. A reached equilibrium corresponds to a global solution for the coverage problem represented by the following two objectives: coverage and the corresponding number of sensors that need to be turned on. A multi-agent system using the game-theoretic framework assumes the creation of a graph model of WSNs and the further interpretation of nodes of the WSN graph as agents participating in iterated games. We use the following two types of reinforcement learning machines as agents: Learning Automata (LA) and Cellular Automata (CA). The main novelty of the paper is the development of a specialized reinforcement learning machine based on the application of ($ϵ,h$)-learning automata. As the second model of an agent, we use the adaptive CA that we recently proposed. While both agent models operate in discrete time, they differ in the way they store and use available information. LA-based agents store in their memories the current information obtained in the last h-time steps and only use this information to make a decision in the next time step. CA-based agents only retain information from the last time step. To make a decision in the next time step, they participate in local evolutionary competitions that determine their subsequent actions. We show that agent-players reaching the Nash equilibria corresponds to the system achieving a global optimization criterion related to the coverage problem, in a fully distributed way, without the agents’ knowledge of the global optimization criterion and without any central coordinator. We perform an extensive experimental study of both models and show that the proposed learning automata-based model significantly outperforms the cellular automata-based model. Full article

Dar es Salaam Port, a crucial logistical hub in East Africa, faces significant challenges related to cargo handling efficiency, road congestion, and capacity constraints. The port’s performance is pivotal for regional trade, necessitating a comprehensive analysis to identify and address operational inefficiencies. This study employed Markov processes to evaluate cargo handling and delivery times, cellular automata for simulating road traffic dynamics, and max-flow models to optimize cargo flow from the port to hinterland destinations. The analysis incorporated factors such as road and rail capacities, traffic conditions, and environmental impacts. The Markov process model indicated that cargo spends 15% of its time waiting at the port, 50% in transit, and 10% delayed, with only 25% successfully delivered. The Cellular Automata simulation revealed severe congestion for heavy trucks due to poor road conditions, with an additional 10 min delay during the rainy season. The max-flow model highlighted that while the road and rail networks generally meet demand, significant bottlenecks exist, particularly for Lubumbashi, which faces a capacity shortfall of 500 t/day. The findings offer actionable insights for stakeholders. Logistics operators can leverage the framework to predict delays, optimize resource allocation, and improve delivery reliability. Policymakers can prioritize strategic investments in infrastructure upgrades, traffic management, and road maintenance to reduce delays and congestion. Scholars can adopt the integrated methodology to analyze similar systems. Together, these efforts can enhance Dar es Salaam Port’s operational efficiency, reduce transit times, and support regional trade development.. Full article

Urban expansion reshapes spatial patterns over time, leading to complex challenges such as environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and socio-economic inequality. It is critical to anticipate these transformations in order to devise proactive urban policies and implement sustainable planning practices that minimize negative impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods. This study investigates LULC changes in the rapidly urbanizing Manisa metropolitan area of Turkey using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and advanced machine learning algorithms. High-accuracy LULC maps were generated for 2018, 2021, and 2024 using Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbors, and Classification and Regression Trees algorithms. Among these, the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior accuracy and consistency in distinguishing complex land-cover classes. Future LULC scenarios for 2027 and 2030 were simulated using the Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network model and the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. The results indicate significant urban growth, with built-up areas projected to increase by 23.67% between 2024 and 2030, accompanied by declines in natural resources such as bare land and water bodies. This study highlights the implications of urban expansion regarding ecological balance and demonstrates the importance of integrating machine learning and simulation models to forecast land use changes, enabling sustainable urban planning and resource management. Overall, effective policies must be developed to manage the negative environmental impacts of urbanization and conduct land use planning in a balanced manner. Full article

Riverine coastal megacities, particularly in semi-arid South Asian regions, face escalating environmental challenges due to rapid urbanization and climate change. While previous studies have examined urban growth patterns or environmental impacts independently, there remains a critical gap in understanding the integrated impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on both ecosystem vulnerability and sustainable development achievements. This study addresses this gap through an innovative integration of multitemporal Landsat imagery (5, 7, and 8), SRTM-DEM, historical land use maps, and population data using the MOLUSCE plugin with cellular automata–artificial neural networks (CA-ANN) modelling to monitor LULC changes over three decades (1990–2020) and project future changes for 2025, 2030, and 2035, supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Karachi, southern Pakistan, one of the world’s most populous megacities. The framework integrates LULC analysis with SDG metrics, achieving an overall accuracy greater than 97%, with user and producer accuracies above 77% and a Kappa coefficient approaching 1, demonstrating a high level of agreement. Results revealed significant urban expansion from 13.4% to 23.7% of the total area between 1990 and 2020, with concurrent reductions in vegetation cover, water bodies, and wetlands. Erosion along the riverbank has caused the Malir River’s area to decrease from 17.19 to 5.07 km² by 2020, highlighting a key factor contributing to urban flooding during the monsoon season. Flood risk projections indicate that urbanized areas will be most affected, with 66.65% potentially inundated by 2035. This study’s innovative contribution lies in quantifying SDG achievements, showing varied progress: 26% for SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), 18% for SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), 13% for SDG 13 (Climate Action), and 16% for SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). However, declining vegetation cover and water bodies pose challenges for SDG 15 (Life on Land) and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), with 16% and 11%, respectively. This integrated approach provides valuable insights for urban planners, offering a novel framework for adaptive urban planning strategies and advancing sustainable practices in similar stressed megacity regions. Full article

Amidst the increasingly escalating global concern regarding climate change, adopting a low-carbon approach has become crucial for charting the future developmental trajectory of urban areas. It also offers a novel angle for cities to avoid high-temperature risks. This paper estimates carbon emissions in Wuhan City from both direct and indirect aspects. Then, the ANN (artificial neural network)–CA (Cellular Automata) model is employed to establish three distinct development scenarios (Ecological Priority, Tight Growth, and Natural Growth) to predict future urban expansion. Additionally, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)—UCM (Urban Canopy Model) model is used to investigate the thermal environmental impacts of varying urban development scenarios. This study uses a low-carbon perspective to explore how cities can develop scientifically sound urban strategies to meet climate change challenges and achieve sustainable development goals. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The net carbon emission for Wuhan in 2022 is estimated to be approximately 20.8353 million tonnes. Should the city maintain an average annual emission reduction rate of 10%, the carbon sink capacity of Wuhan would need to be enhanced by 382,200 tonnes by 2060. (2) In the absence of anthropogenic influence, there is a propensity for the urban construction zone of Wuhan to expand primarily towards the southeast and western sectors. (3) The Ecological Priority (EP) and Tight Growth (TG) scenarios are effective in alleviating the urban thermal environment, achieving a reduction of 0.88% and 2.48%, respectively, in the urban heat island index during afternoon hours. In contrast, the Natural Growth (NG) scenario results in a degradation of the urban thermal environment, with a significant increase of over 4% in the urban heat island index during the morning and evening periods. (4) An overabundance of urban green spaces and water bodies could exacerbate the urban heat island effect during the early morning and at night. The findings of this study enhance the comprehension of the climatic implications associated with various urban development paradigms and are instrumental in delineating future trajectories for low-carbon sustainable urban development models. Full article