Search Results (362)

Previous research on financial contagion has mostly looked at volatility spillovers using static or fixed parameter models. These models don’t always take into account how inter-market links change and depend on frequency during big crises. This study fills in that gap by looking at how changes in volatility in the G20 equity markets affected four big global events: the global financial crisis of 2008, the European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. The study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP VAR) framework along with the Baruník-Křehlík frequency domain spillover measure to look at how connectedness changes over short-term (1–5 days) and long-term (5–Inf days) time periods. The results show that systemic connectedness changes a lot during crises. For example, the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) was 24–25 percent during the GFC and EDC, 34 percent during COVID-19, and a huge jump to 60 percent during the Russia-Ukraine war. During the global financial crisis and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US constantly emerged as the largest transmitter. During the European debt crisis, on the other hand, emerging markets like Turkey, South Africa, and Japan acted as net transmitters. During all crisis times, short-term spillovers are the most common. This shows how important high-frequency volatility transmission is. This study is different from others because it uses both time-varying and frequency domain views. This gives us a better idea of how crises change the way global finances are linked. The results are very important for policymakers and investors because they show how important it is to coordinate risk management, improve market safety, and make systemic stress testing better in a global financial world. Full article

‘Deepfakes’ and other forms of digital communications disinformation are now on the virtual frontlines of many armed conflicts. Military commanders can potentially gain significant tactical advantages by misleading enemy forces, opposing governments, and civilian populations into believing X when Y is the true state of affairs. Distinct from military propaganda, deliberate deceptions and subterfuge have long been part of warfare. However, a powerful claim is advanced that deepfakes such as announcing surrender, truce declarations, or similar messages that place soldiers and civilians at greater risk are international humanitarian law (IHL) violations, notably under the 1907 Hague Convention and the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions. This four-section critical discussion considers whether, or to what extent, deepfakes are IHL compliant. Selected examples taken from the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war are highlighted to illustrate the potentially grave dangers that deepfakes represent for innocent civilian populations. IHL reform recommendations are made that would reduce deepfake harm—if such reforms are embraced by the international community (an admittedly doubtful prospect). Full article

The European Union air transport sector has been repeatedly exposed to major disruptions such as the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and volatile energy prices. Strengthening resilience has, therefore, become a strategic priority. This study examines how strategic energy investments—covering renewable energy, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), electrification, hydrogen technologies, and advanced infrastructure—contribute to the resilience of the EU air transport system. The methodology integrates both primary and secondary data from EU policy documents, ICAO and IATA databases, Eurostat, and national statistics. A multi-criteria evaluation was applied using four key performance indicators: emission reduction efficiency (ER), annual exposure index (AEI), investment performance index (IPI), and net present value (NPV). Projects were assessed through Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), complemented by sensitivity analysis. The results show that the Pioneer project delivers the strongest environmental and financial outcomes, ranking first in ER, AEI, and NPV. Hermes performs best in job creation and social impact, while BioOstrand achieves substantial absolute CO₂ reductions but lower cost efficiency. TULIPS shows limited effectiveness across all indicators. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that rankings remain robust under alternative weighting scenarios. The findings underscore that project design and alignment with resilience objectives matter more than investment size. Strategic energy investments should, therefore, be prioritized not only for decarbonization but also for their ability to reinforce both technological and socio-economic resilience, providing a reliable foundation for a sustainable and crisis-resistant EU air transport sector. Full article

Background: Refugees often face major health challenges owing to displacement, poor living conditions, limited access to healthcare, and the psychological toll of forced migration. Access to healthcare has been a major concern because of disrupted medical services, pre-existing health conditions, and integration challenges in host countries. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of infectious diseases on refugees in the context of the war in Ukraine by analyzing data from patients who accessed health services from a county hospital. Methods: We analyzed the data of Ukrainian refugees who presented for an infectious disease between February 2022 and March 2025 in the largest hospital unit in Romania located immediately near the border with Ukraine. Results: A total of 2052 refugee patients of Ukrainian nationality presented to the Emergency Reception Unit of “St. Ioan cel Nou Suceava” for consultations; 672 patients required an evaluation by an infectious disease specialist and 48 were hospitalized in the Department of Infectious Diseases. The most common disease encountered in children was influenza, whereas the most common disease in adults was SARS-CoV-2 infection. The most frequently encountered comorbidities in pediatric patients were anemia (26.9%) and dehydration syndrome (46.2%). In adults, comorbidities included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (18.2%), hypertension (13.6%), chronic coronary disease (4.5%), diabetes (9.1%), and chronic hepatitis (4.5%). Patients were treated with antivirals, rehydration solutions or only symptomatic treatment. Conclusions: Romania is implementing public health measures to address these challenges, focusing on vaccination and disease screening, and ensuring access to essential healthcare services. These services include access to primary care physicians, specialist consultations, hospitalization, and essential medications. Full article

Rising carbon emissions from international road freight transport in the EU—increasing from 29.4% in 2023 to 31.4% in 2025 under the With Existing Measures (WEM) Road Transport scenario—necessitate the implementation of additional measures within the framework of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). For Ukraine, operating under martial law and pursuing a post-war green recovery of its transport and trade sectors, the adoption of EU experience in distributed generation (DG) from renewable energy sources (RESs) is particularly critical. This study evaluates the synergy between energy-efficient and low-carbon management in logistics chains for road freight transportation in Ukraine, drawing on EU evidence of DG based on RESs. To this end, a decoupling analysis was conducted to identify the factors influencing low-carbon and energy-efficient management of logistics chains in Ukraine’s freight transport sector. Under wartime conditions, the EU practice of utilising electric vehicles (EVs) as an auxiliary source of renewable energy for distributed electricity generation within microgrids—through Grid-to-Vehicle (G2V) and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies—was modelled. The results confirm the relevance of RES-based DG and the integration of EVs as a means of enhancing energy resilience in resource-constrained and conflict-affected regions. The scientific novelty of this research lies in identifying the conditions for achieving energy-efficient and low-carbon effects in the design of logistics chains through RES-based distributed generation, grounded in circular and inclusive economic development. The practical significance of the findings lies in formulating a replicable model for diversifying low-carbon fuel sources via the development of distributed generation of electricity based on renewable resources, providing a scalable paradigm for energy-limited and conflict-affected areas. Future research should focus on developing innovative logistics chain models that integrate DG and renewable energy use into Ukraine’s transport system. Full article

The UK electricity market is changing to adapt to Net Zero targets and respond to disruptions like the Russia–Ukraine war. This requires strategic planning to decide on the construction of new electricity generation plants for a resilient UK electricity grid. Such planning is based on forecasting the UK electricity demand long-term (from 1 year and beyond). In this paper, we propose a long-term predictive model by identifying the main components of the UK electricity demand, modelling each of these components, and combining them in a multiplicative manner to deliver a single long-term prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to apply a multiplicative decomposition model for long-term predictions at both monthly and hourly resolutions, combining neural networks with Fourier analysis. This approach is extremely flexible and accurate, with a mean absolute percentage error of 4.16% and 8.62% in predicting the monthly and hourly electricity demand, respectively, from 2019 to 2021. Full article

Change points caused by extreme events in global economic markets have been widely studied in the literature. However, existing techniques to identify change points rely on subjective judgments and lack robust methodologies. The objective of this paper is to generalize a novel approach that leverages topological data analysis (TDA) to extract topological features from time series data using persistent homology. In this approach, we use Taken’s embedding and sliding window techniques to transform the initial time series data into a high-dimensional topological space. Then, in this topological space, persistent homology is used to extract topological features which can give important information related to change points. As a case study, we analyzed 26 stocks over the last 12 years by using this method and found that there were two financial market volatility indicators derived from our method, denoted as $L_1$ and $L_2$. They serve as effective indicators of long-term and short-term financial market fluctuations, respectively. Moreover, significant differences are observed across markets in different regions and sectors by using these indicators. By setting a significance threshold of 98 % for the two indicators, we found that the detected change points correspond exactly to four major financial extreme events in the past twelve years: the intensification of the European debt crisis in 2011, Brexit in 2016, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Furthermore, benchmark comparisons with established univariate and multivariate CPD methods confirm that the TDA-based indicators consistently achieve superior F1 scores across different tolerance windows, particularly in capturing widely recognized consensus events. Full article

This study examines intergenerational transmission of Russian within the U.S. Russophone diaspora in the wake of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It addresses: (1) parents’ motivations and practices surrounding intergenerational language transmission; and (2) challenges faced by Russian-speaking families in today’s shifting sociopolitical landscape. The study draws on semi-structured Zoom interviews with 16 Russian-speaking parents in the United States, each raising children aged 3–15 and representing four different immigration periods, from the early 1990s to 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Findings reveal that heritage language maintenance is shaped not only by linguistic choices, but also by political and ethical considerations. While all parents continue to view Russian as a source of identity, cultural capital, and familial cohesion, many also actively disassociate the language from its sociopolitical ties to the aggressor state. Shared aspirations for bilingualism are tempered by internal and external pressures, including children’s growing agency, family dynamics, challenges of immigrant life, and war-driven fractures within the diaspora. This study contributes to research on heritage language maintenance and family language policies by exploring how global geopolitical events are negotiated through intimate, everyday language practices in immigrant households. Full article

Reports indicate that millions of people have been watching the Russian–Ukrainian war that broke out on 24 February 2022. This research studies the relationship between watching the war and psychological reactions in 1260 university students who responded to an online questionnaire related to watching the war on various media forms. Data were collected from April to October 2022 from five national samples from Europe (Germany, Finland, and the Czech Republic) and North America (Canada and the U.S.). Since European countries are assumed to have greater ties with the countries at war, anxiety, anger, and denial while watching the war should be greater in European participants than in North American ones. Worry about the war should be greater when more hours are spent watching the war, and anxiety related to the war should decrease with self-efficacy. ANOVA results showed that European participants spent more hours watching the war, worried more, and experienced greater distress than North American ones. Path analysis showed that having relatives, friends, or colleagues in Ukraine or Russia was associated with worry about the war through hours spent watching it. Self-efficacy was negatively related to anxiety. Psychological distress related to watching the war was far-reaching, extending to countries beyond Ukraine and Russia. Full article

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 triggered a series of dramatic events with both humanitarian and informational repercussions. In this context, social media became saturated with rhetorical strategies and narrative framing from civil society, European media, and EU institutions alike. This paper examines how the European Union communicated institutionally during the first year of the war, focusing on the online activity of the three main EU bodies—the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council—and their respective presidents: Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, and Charles Michel. The study centres on their use of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), analysing the content of their posts related to the conflict. In addition, several in-depth interviews were conducted with experts in EU institutional communication and disinformation on social media to complement the analysis and offer a broader perspective on the communicative strategies employed. Full article

Forced migration following the outbreak of war in Ukraine has severely affected the psychological well-being of refugees. The community and its resources play an important role in helping refugees cope with their challenges. This study examines the role of community resilience as a mediator between refugee distress, social support and subjective well-being among Ukrainian refugees in Italy. A study was conducted with 180 Ukrainian refugees. Participants were given an online questionnaire that assessed distress, community resilience, social support and subjective well-being. A mediation analysis was conducted to test the hypothesized relationships. There was a direct negative relationship between refugee distress and well-being, which was partially mediated by community resilience. In addition, community resilience fully mediated the positive relationship between social support and well-being. High levels of distress were associated with lower levels of community resilience, which in turn predicted lower levels of well-being. Community resilience emerges as an important factor in mitigating the negative effects of refugee distress and enhancing the positive effects of social support on well-being. These findings highlight the importance of community-based psychosocial interventions aimed at promoting resilience to support the well-being and integration of refugees. Full article

This study examines the media coverage of illegal immigration in Spain during the first year of the war in Ukraine, focusing on the four most-read online newspapers: El Español, Okdiario, La Razón, and eldiario.es. The research aims to understand how ideological differences influence source selection and framing of immigration issues. Using Source Credibility Theory as a framework, the study analyzes the frequency of coverage and types of sources used by each outlet. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative analysis of source frequencies with qualitative examination of content. The results reveal significant disparities in coverage and source usage among the newspapers. Conservative outlets like Okdiario relied heavily on official sources (51.5%), while the progressive eldiario.es gave more weight to civil society sources (38.2%). El Español and Okdiario published more articles on illegal immigration compared to La Razón and eldiario.es. Notably, La Razón, also conservative, used hidden sources more frequently (17%) than other outlets. The findings highlight how ideological leanings shape journalistic practices in covering sensitive topics like immigration. Conservative media’s focus on institutional narratives contrasts with progressive outlets’ emphasis on human stories, potentially influencing public perception and discourse on immigration issues. This study contributes to understanding the role of media in shaping societal attitudes towards immigration and underscores the importance of diverse perspectives in news coverage. Full article

This study introduces the SESG (Security, Environmental, Social, Governance) framework as a necessary evolution of traditional ESG, aimed at enhancing societal and corporate resilience in the face of hybrid threats, war, and climate crises. By integrating a security dimension, SESG responds to the growing inadequacy of classical ESG models in high-risk environments, particularly for countries like Ukraine. The research combines theoretical analysis with empirical data, including a nationwide survey of Ukrainian professionals across business, government, and civil society sectors. The findings reveal overwhelming support—over 90%—for incorporating security into ESG, especially in sectors such as IT, energy, and logistics. The article proposes a matrix of qualitative and quantitative indicators to assess SESG performance and highlights business-led contributions to national defense. The results demonstrate that security is not just a governmental concern but a key factor in corporate responsibility, investor trust, and sustainable development. The study concludes that SESG offers both a scientific reframing of resilience and a practical tool for policy and strategy, particularly under conditions of geopolitical and environmental instability. It urges cross-sector collaboration, standardization, and awareness building to embed SESG as a core principle in global sustainability agendas. Full article

Ukraine’s healthcare system has shown remarkable resilience in continuing newborn screening (NBS), beyond the challenges of war. Amid the conflict, a Ukrainian newborn screened positive for an extremely rare severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID)–purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP) deficiency. Ukraine successfully carried out NBS on a neonatal dried blood spot (DBS) by real-time PCR, which showed remarkably reduced T-cell receptor and kappa-deleting recombination excision circles (TREC/KREC). Retesting was delayed due to communication difficulties with the family. Whole exome sequencing on a new DBS confirmed the diagnosis. The newborn was a candidate for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), the only curative treatment. HSCT is a complex procedure still ongoing in Ukraine despite the conflict. However, due to the psychosocial strain, the family sought medical support in Germany, where HSCT was performed successfully at 6 months. As part of a collaborative initiative with Italy, PNP biomarkers were quantified on the same DBSs using tandem mass spectrometry, according to the protocols established for SCID NBS in Tuscany, serving as a proof of concept of its diagnostic performance. This case highlights the importance of sustaining preventive and life-saving healthcare services, and reflects the key role of international partnerships in upholding the right to healthcare in times of crisis. Full article

This study investigates the dynamics of financial contagion using a flexible mixture copula framework, specifically a combination of the Survival Clayton and Survival Gumbel copulas, to estimate the lower tail dependence coefficient, interpreted as a measure of extreme downside co-movement or contagion. The model captures nonlinear and asymmetric dependencies between the global stock market and nine national markets: Australia, China, Hungary, India, New Zealand, Spain, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis spans the period from 2018 to 2024 and focuses on three major global crises: the China–U.S. trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in contagion intensity across countries and crises. The COVID-19 pandemic generated the highest and most synchronized levels of contagion, with tail dependence exceeding 0.8 in the United States and above 0.6 in several developed and emerging markets. The China–U.S. trade war resulted in moderate contagion, particularly in countries with close trade links to the U.S. and China. The Russia–Ukraine conflict produced elevated contagion in European and energy-sensitive markets such as the UK and Spain. Conversely, China and New Zealand exhibited relatively lower levels of contagion across all periods Full article