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16 pages, 8064 KB  
Article
Tissue-Specific VDR Pathway Gene Expression Is Not Associated with Circulating 25OHD in Adolescents with Severe Obesity
by Olivia Z. B. Ginnard, Maria Morales, Gabrielle Phillips, Mary L. Brandt, Sridevi Devaraj, Alexis Wood and Stephanie R. Sisley
Metabolites 2026, 16(9), 627; https://doi.org/10.3390/metabo16090627 - 29 Aug 2026
Viewed by 150
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent among children with obesity, but the mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation remain poorly understood. This study examined the expression patterns of VDR-target genes across metabolically diverse tissues and compared these molecular measures [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent among children with obesity, but the mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation remain poorly understood. This study examined the expression patterns of VDR-target genes across metabolically diverse tissues and compared these molecular measures with circulating serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), the current clinical marker of vitamin D status. We hypothesized that VDR-pathway gene expression would correlate within metabolically relevant tissues but would not be significantly associated with circulating serum 25OHD levels. Methods: A secondary analysis was performed on blood, intestinal, and visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue (VAT and SAT, respectively) samples obtained from adolescents with obesity. Subject data included age, gender, race/ethnicity, and BMI. The tissues were analyzed via real-time qPCR to obtain quantitative levels of VDR-target gene expression, which included TLR4, THBD, and VDR in SAT and VAT and TRPV6, S100G, and VDR in intestinal tissue. Blood samples were analyzed for serum 25OHD. Results: Gene expression of THBD, VDR, and TLR4 in SAT and VAT significantly correlated with each other. In intestinal tissue, there was significant correlation between TRPV6, S100G, and VDR. No statistically significant associations were identified between the gene expression levels and serum 25OHD levels. Conclusions: VDR-target gene expression levels correlated with each other across diverse tissues but not with serum 25OHD levels. This discrepancy suggests that circulating 25OHD concentrations may not fully reflect vitamin D action. Full article
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24 pages, 348 KB  
Article
Convergence Clubs, Institutional Hierarchy, and Crisis Asymmetry in European Economies
by Goran Lalić, Dragana Trifunović and Srđan Žikić
Economies 2026, 14(9), 358; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14090358 - 28 Aug 2026
Viewed by 150
Abstract
This paper investigates the existence of convergence clubs and asymmetric crisis dynamics across European Union and Western Balkan economies over the period 2004–2023. Using the Phillips–Sul log-t methodology, we reject overall income convergence and identify three distinct convergence clubs characterized by persistent structural [...] Read more.
This paper investigates the existence of convergence clubs and asymmetric crisis dynamics across European Union and Western Balkan economies over the period 2004–2023. Using the Phillips–Sul log-t methodology, we reject overall income convergence and identify three distinct convergence clubs characterized by persistent structural heterogeneity. A multinomial logit framework reveals that institutional quality emerges as the strongest predictor of convergence club membership, indicating a clear governance hierarchy across European economies. We further estimate fixed-effects growth models with crisis interactions to examine asymmetric responses during major macroeconomic shocks (2008–2009, 2012–2013, and 2020–2021). Results indicate significant negative crisis effects, with middle-income club economies experiencing disproportionate contraction. These findings remain robust to Driscoll–Kraay corrections for cross-sectional dependence, alternative crisis definitions, and sigma-convergence analysis. Overall, the results suggest that European income dynamics are characterized not by uniform convergence, but by club-based adjustment patterns associated with institutional capacity and crisis resilience. The findings contribute to the literature on nonlinear convergence and institutional heterogeneity in integrated economic areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)
13 pages, 300 KB  
Article
Selective Similarity Preference: People with a “Darker Core” Desire More Partner Similarity in Dark Traits but Not in Big Five
by Hao Wu, Shanhong Luo, Whitney Wall and Karryll Winborne-Phillips
Eur. J. Investig. Health Psychol. Educ. 2026, 16(9), 128; https://doi.org/10.3390/ejihpe16090128 - 27 Aug 2026
Viewed by 164
Abstract
Research on assortative mating has shown that couples share strong similarities in demographic and attitudinal variables, while the similarity in personality is generally weak. However, a recent meta-analysis indicated that couple similarity in dark traits is considerably greater than that in the Big [...] Read more.
Research on assortative mating has shown that couples share strong similarities in demographic and attitudinal variables, while the similarity in personality is generally weak. However, a recent meta-analysis indicated that couple similarity in dark traits is considerably greater than that in the Big Five. If these differential similarities are primarily due to active preference, we expect that (1) the desire for similarity in dark traits should be higher than that for the Big Five and (2) the strongest desire for partner similarity in dark traits should come from the “darkest” individuals (i.e., with the darkest core). Participants (n = 2465) rated themselves and their ideal partner in Dark Triad and Big Five traits. They also rated their own dark core. The results showed consistent evidence for desired similarity in dark traits; however, this similarity was no greater than that for the Big Five. Further, dark core generally moderated desired similarity on dark traits such that people with a darker core preferred stronger partner similarity in dark traits. This pattern was only observed for Agreeableness on the Big Five. A new explanation was proposed to reconcile these paradoxical findings concerning desired and actual similarity in dark traits in comparison to the Big Five. Full article
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20 pages, 3271 KB  
Article
MorphoNet: An Interpretable Hierarchical Deep Learning Framework for Multi-Class Skin Lesion Classification Using Dermoscopic Morphology
by Bradley Yao, Angela Jin, Huijuan Liu and Qiliang Li
Bioengineering 2026, 13(9), 989; https://doi.org/10.3390/bioengineering13090989 - 27 Aug 2026
Viewed by 219
Abstract
Accurate and interpretable classification of dermoscopic skin lesions remains challenging because lesion subtypes frequently exhibit overlapping visual characteristics, public datasets are highly imbalanced, and images acquired from different sources may present substantial domain variation. This study proposes MorphoNet, an interpretable two-stage deep learning [...] Read more.
Accurate and interpretable classification of dermoscopic skin lesions remains challenging because lesion subtypes frequently exhibit overlapping visual characteristics, public datasets are highly imbalanced, and images acquired from different sources may present substantial domain variation. This study proposes MorphoNet, an interpretable two-stage deep learning framework for hierarchical skin lesion classification. A total of 16,845 dermoscopic images from HAM10000, ISIC 2019, and DERM12345 were integrated into eight diagnostic categories. In Stage 1, an EfficientNet-B4-based classifier distinguishes benign from malignant lesions. In Stage 2, separate classifiers identify four malignant and four benign subtypes. Quantitative asymmetry, border, color, and diameter descriptors are incorporated through an attention-guided feature fusion module, while correlation alignment regularization is used to reduce discrepancies in feature distribution across the three data sources. Experiments were repeated using three random seeds. MorphoNet achieved accuracies of 94.01 ± 0.50%, 89.05 ± 0.51%, and 91.84 ± 0.41%, with corresponding F1-scores of 93.70 ± 0.55%, 84.00 ± 1.00%, and 87.97 ± 1.13% for benign–malignant screening, malignant subtype classification, and benign subtype classification, respectively. Ablation analysis showed that the complete framework improved F1-score by 2.52–4.71 percentage points over the visual-only hierarchical EfficientNet-B4 model. MorphoNet also achieved higher numerical performance than ResNet-50, DenseNet-121, and image-only EfficientNet-B4 baselines trained under the same protocol. The learned attention profiles were consistent with clinically relevant morphological characteristics. These findings demonstrate the complementary value of hierarchical classification, ABCD-guided feature fusion, and domain alignment for interpretable multi-source skin lesion analysis, although independent multicenter clinical validation remains necessary. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Biosignal Processing)
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2 pages, 736 KB  
Correction
Correction: Schupp et al. Deconstructing Intratumoral Heterogeneity through Multiomic and Multiscale Analysis of Serial Sections. Cancers 2024, 16, 2429
by Patrick G. Schupp, Samuel J. Shelton, Daniel J. Brody, Rebecca Eliscu, Brett E. Johnson, Tali Mazor, Kevin W. Kelley, Matthew B. Potts, Michael W. McDermott, Eric J. Huang, Daniel A. Lim, Russell O. Pieper, Mitchel S. Berger, Joseph F. Costello, Joanna J. Phillips and Michael C. Oldham
Cancers 2026, 18(17), 2765; https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers18172765 - 26 Aug 2026
Viewed by 117
Abstract
Error in Figure [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Molecular Cancer Biology)
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16 pages, 318 KB  
Article
Silence’s Paradox
by Timothy Stanley
Religions 2026, 17(9), 1009; https://doi.org/10.3390/rel17091009 - 26 Aug 2026
Viewed by 274
Abstract
The following essay argues that Shūsaku Endō’s 1966 novel Silence, elucidates a corrective to pragmatist deliberative philosophy. First, it begins with the book’s protagonist Rodrigues in his eventual role evaluating banned Christian objects to prevent them from entering seventeenth century Japan. While [...] Read more.
The following essay argues that Shūsaku Endō’s 1966 novel Silence, elucidates a corrective to pragmatist deliberative philosophy. First, it begins with the book’s protagonist Rodrigues in his eventual role evaluating banned Christian objects to prevent them from entering seventeenth century Japan. While these actions present a model of a dejected, apostate padre, they also model his silent acknowledgement of suffering. Second, Endō’s narrative does not aim to explain the suffering its characters experience. Instead, it draws its readers into a practical concern for what Ludwig Wittgenstein referred to as their form of life. Film adaptations highlight the challenges of interpreting religious examples by including artworks that defy easy apprehension. Third, throughout Silence the story navigates the gap between Rodrigues’s visceral suffering and divine silence. In so doing, it exemplifies Simone Weil’s notion of embodied affliction. To fully appreciate such experiences, Weil suggests that the scope of affliction must include divine silence. The desire for God arises in response. A similar contrast can be seen between the characters’ different dispositions towards keeping quiet. In sum, the essay contends that when immanent suffering is inevitable, practices of embodied silence can be the only way to speak. Full article
16 pages, 3076 KB  
Article
Independent Discovery of Mesomycoplasma conjunctivae in Non-Native Aoudad (Ammotragus lervia) in Texas
by Emily A. Wright, Brendan R. Amman, W. Indiana Beck, Caleb D. Phillips and Robert D. Bradley
Animals 2026, 16(17), 2639; https://doi.org/10.3390/ani16172639 - 23 Aug 2026
Viewed by 184
Abstract
Conservation of native species is an ongoing task, especially when non-native species present a threat via competition and disease transmission. In Texas, native desert bighorn sheep (DBS) compete directly with non-native aoudad for resources. Aoudad (Ammotragus lervia, also known as Barbary [...] Read more.
Conservation of native species is an ongoing task, especially when non-native species present a threat via competition and disease transmission. In Texas, native desert bighorn sheep (DBS) compete directly with non-native aoudad for resources. Aoudad (Ammotragus lervia, also known as Barbary sheep), introduced into the United States from Africa, are competent hosts of Mesomycoplasma ovipneumoniae and are thought to be the primary reservoir for transmitting pneumonia to DBS. A recent epidemic (circa December 2025) of infectious keratoconjunctivitis (IKC) in aoudad was reported in western Texas. Herein, we compare newly derived microbial data (16S rRNA sequencing) to results derived from a previous dataset (multi-locus sequence typing). Five M. conjunctivae haplotypes were indicated by 16S sequence data obtained from 33 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses identified these haplotypes as members of a clade containing sequences from wild ungulate hosts, whereas sequences from domestic ungulates formed a divergent clade (6.58%). Together, these data indicate the presence of an aoudad-like M. conjunctivae obtained from four mountain ranges in western Texas during 2018–2020. These implications suggest that monitoring for IKC and identifying the bacterial pathogen is paramount in case of spillover from aoudad to DBS. Based on the data presented herein, effective management strategies should take a dual approach of bacterial surveillance and preparation in case of antibiotic intervention for DBS conservation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Small Ruminants)
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32 pages, 517 KB  
Article
Exponential Decay of the Local Energy for Solutions of the Damped Critical Wave Equation Outside the Union of Two Strictly Convex Obstacles
by Naima Mehenaoui, Saleh Fahad Aljurbua and Ahmed Bchatnia
Axioms 2026, 15(8), 622; https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms15080622 - 20 Aug 2026
Viewed by 162
Abstract
This paper is concerned with the defocusing energy-critical wave equation with a localized semilinearity and damping, set in the exterior of two disjoint, strictly convex obstacles in R3. The trapping nature of this geometry, due to a periodic ray bouncing between [...] Read more.
This paper is concerned with the defocusing energy-critical wave equation with a localized semilinearity and damping, set in the exterior of two disjoint, strictly convex obstacles in R3. The trapping nature of this geometry, due to a periodic ray bouncing between the obstacles, is the main obstruction to decay. Under an exterior geometric control condition, the local energy is shown to decay exponentially, uniformly over data supported in a fixed ball with energy below any prescribed level. The rate is exactly that of the damped linear flow, and hence independent of the data and of the energy level; only the constant depends on the latter. The approach relies on Lafontaine’s lossless Strichartz estimates, a Lax–Phillips and microlocal defect measure analysis of the damped linear flow, and a Duhamel–Gronwall scheme. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Mathematical Analysis)
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26 pages, 2743 KB  
Review
Bridging the Digital Divide in Smart Home Health Technologies for Older Adults: A Scoping Review of Barriers, Design Considerations, and Policy Implications
by Oishee Ghosh, Haixin Wang, Jeffrey Gajdacs, Ahmed Elsharnouby, Ian H. D. Phillips, Pasqualina Santaguida, Qiyin Fang and M. Jamal Deen
J. Ageing Longev. 2026, 6(3), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/jal6030059 - 20 Aug 2026
Viewed by 291
Abstract
The global shift toward an aging population presents significant challenges for healthcare systems. This is compounded by rising disability rates, fragmented care models that struggle to meet complex needs, and a digital divide caused by the emergence of smart technologies. This work aims [...] Read more.
The global shift toward an aging population presents significant challenges for healthcare systems. This is compounded by rising disability rates, fragmented care models that struggle to meet complex needs, and a digital divide caused by the emergence of smart technologies. This work aims to evaluate how the digital divide affects the adoption, usability, and perceived benefits of smart home technologies designed to support activities of daily living and health monitoring. The influences of socioeconomic status and geographic location (urban versus rural) on the digital divide are considered. Four databases (Web of Science™, Scopus®, PubMed®, and IEEE Xplore®) were searched between 2014 and 2026, resulting in 71 studies that examined older adults, smart home technologies for daily living or health monitoring, and factors related to the digital divide. Findings were synthesized using the Technology Acceptance Model, Van Dijk’s Digital Divide Framework, and Health Behavior Models. Three key barriers were identified—economic, technical, and social—which disproportionately affected vulnerable groups. Smart Home Health Technologies (SH2Techs) present adoption challenges distinct from standalone devices because they require integrated infrastructure and sustained engagement. Limited research addressing the usability of non-clinical SH2Techs has identified the need for co-design, simplified interfaces, targeted training, and policy reforms to support equitable aging in place. Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Diversity Competence and Social Inequalities, 2nd Edition)
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30 pages, 1371 KB  
Article
Logistics Convergence, Financial Development, and Trade Competitiveness: Nonlinear Evidence from Mediterranean Economies
by Ioannis Katrakylidis, Athanasios Athanasenas, Michael Madas, Angeliki Papana and Constantinos Katrakilidis
Economies 2026, 14(8), 353; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080353 - 20 Aug 2026
Viewed by 276
Abstract
This study investigates logistics convergence, financial development, and trade competitiveness in 19 Mediterranean countries over the period 2007–2022. Unlike previous studies that primarily examine average logistics performance across countries, this study contributes by combining convergence-club analysis, logistics inequality decomposition, and second-stage ordered-logit modelling [...] Read more.
This study investigates logistics convergence, financial development, and trade competitiveness in 19 Mediterranean countries over the period 2007–2022. Unlike previous studies that primarily examine average logistics performance across countries, this study contributes by combining convergence-club analysis, logistics inequality decomposition, and second-stage ordered-logit modelling to identify the structural characteristics associated with different logistics regimes across Mediterranean economies. Based on the Logistics Performance Index (LPI), we employ descriptive statistics, sigma-convergence analysis, the Phillips–Sul club convergence approach, relative transition paths, Theil decomposition of logistics inequality, and second-stage ordered-logit estimation. The full-panel Phillips–Sul test rejects the hypothesis of overall convergence, indicating that Mediterranean economies do not converge towards a common logistics-performance equilibrium. However, the club formation procedure identifies three statistically supported logistics convergence clubs, while Libya cannot be assigned to any convergence club. The transition-path analysis reveals three distinct logistics regimes corresponding to upper, middle, and lower convergence groups. The Theil decomposition indicates that the between-club component of logistics inequality becomes increasingly dominant after 2012 and accounts for most logistics inequality during the later years of the sample. Second-stage ordered-logit estimates indicate that GDP per capita, the rule of law, and economic complexity are positively associated with membership in higher logistics convergence clubs, whereas financial development does not emerge as a statistically significant direct predictor. Taken together, the findings suggest that financial development is associated with logistics convergence primarily through broader institutional and structural channels rather than emerging as an independently significant predictor in the ordered-logit analysis. Overall, the findings provide policy implications for promoting balanced logistics development and reducing structural disparities across Mediterranean economies. Full article
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24 pages, 2052 KB  
Article
Polynomial Stability of the Timoshenko Beam System with a Fractional Dynamic Boundary Feedback
by Abdelkader Moumen, Kadda Maazouz, Zineb Bellabes, Jessada Tariboon and Hussien Albala
Fractal Fract. 2026, 10(8), 563; https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract10080563 - 17 Aug 2026
Viewed by 276
Abstract
We investigate the asymptotic behavior of a Timoshenko beam system in which the free end carries a tip mass subject to a restoring spring force and a tempered Caputo fractional damping force with parameter η>0 (the case η=0 is [...] Read more.
We investigate the asymptotic behavior of a Timoshenko beam system in which the free end carries a tip mass subject to a restoring spring force and a tempered Caputo fractional damping force with parameter η>0 (the case η=0 is left as an open problem). Using a diffusive state space reformulation of the fractional term, the original problem is embedded into an augmented first-order evolution system on a carefully constructed Hilbert space. Well-posedness is established via the Lumer–Phillips theorem. A spectral analysis of the governing operator, combined with the Arendt–Batty–Lyubich–Vũ theorem, shows that the associated C0-semigroup is strongly asymptotically stable even when the classical equal-wave-speeds condition for the Timoshenko system is violated, provided η>0. Moreover, resorting to the Borichev–Tomilov resolvent method, we reduce the polynomial energy decay to a single resolvent exponent >0, so that the energy of every solution issued from a datum in the domain of the generator decays at least as fast as t1/ as t+. We establish the estimates that control ; we identify the mechanism that governs it—the inertia of the tip mass, which screens the damper at high frequency—and we measure numerically. In particular, the exponent is not dictated by the second-order character of the Timoshenko operator, contrary to what a comparison with the fourth–order beam might suggest. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Fractal and Fractional Dynamics)
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34 pages, 6141 KB  
Article
Do Stablecoin Deviations Matter? A Bubble Crash–GARCH Approach to Risk Forecasting and Contagion with Traditional Cryptocurrencies
by Giovanni De Luca and Andrea Montanino
Econometrics 2026, 14(3), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics14030042 - 13 Aug 2026
Viewed by 292
Abstract
Although stablecoins occupy a segment of digital-asset markets in which price stability is central by design, their temporary departures from reference values may reveal important information about latent risk and market stress. In this paper, we examine whether bubble and crash signals extracted [...] Read more.
Although stablecoins occupy a segment of digital-asset markets in which price stability is central by design, their temporary departures from reference values may reveal important information about latent risk and market stress. In this paper, we examine whether bubble and crash signals extracted from traditional cryptocurrencies and stablecoins improve volatility, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall forecasting and, in connection with these forecasting gains, contribute to the assessment of cross-asset contagions. The analysis applies the Bubble Crash–GARCH models, in which extreme price phases are identified through the Phillips, Shi, and Yu real-time monitoring procedure and incorporated into the conditional mean of returns through event-based dummy variables. For stablecoins, extreme episodes are not inferred from price dynamics in isolation but from deviations between the observed price and the asset-specific reference value. The empirical investigation focuses on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether’s USD-pegged (USDT), and Tether Gold and evaluates asset-specific bubble–crash effects and bidirectional contagion channels between traditional cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, using Bitcoin and Tether as the leading representatives of the two market segments. The findings indicate that accounting for bubble and crash episodes leads to more accurate volatility forecasts than standard GARCH benchmarks. For Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, the bubble–crash specifications can improve tail risk forecasting at several tail probability levels through more accurate coverage, lower quantile loss, and stronger ESR backtesting performance. The results also reveal different degrees of price exuberance across the two asset categories: while extreme price dynamics are more evident among traditional cryptocurrencies, deviations from fundamentals are rare for stablecoins. Among stablecoins, USDT exhibits limited but detectable exuberance, whereas Tether Gold does not display extreme price episodes. However, when such deviations occur, as in the case of USDT, they generate significant contagion effects on major cryptocurrencies. Notably, extreme episodes originating in USDT have a stronger impacts on Bitcoin and Ethereum than the reverse spillovers from traditional cryptocurrencies to USDT. Overall, the evidence suggests that stablecoins are not merely passive instruments within the digital-asset ecosystem. Even temporary deviations from their reference values contain valuable information for risk forecasting and contagion monitoring. Full article
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21 pages, 539 KB  
Article
Ecological Footprint Convergence in Hydrocarbon-Based Economies: Quantile and Fourier Evidence from GCC Countries
by Erhan Oruç, Muhammet Rıdvan Ince, Yavuz Kılınç, Ali Rıza Solmaz and Özgür Bayram Soylu
Sustainability 2026, 18(16), 8051; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168051 - 7 Aug 2026
Viewed by 234
Abstract
Over the past seven decades, rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in environmental degradation worldwide. Given the magnitude and transboundary nature of environmental externalities, country-specific policies may be insufficient, and regionally coordinated environmental strategies are likely to be more [...] Read more.
Over the past seven decades, rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in environmental degradation worldwide. Given the magnitude and transboundary nature of environmental externalities, country-specific policies may be insufficient, and regionally coordinated environmental strategies are likely to be more effective. For such frameworks to succeed, convergence in levels of environmental pressure among member countries is essential. In this study, convergence is examined using the ecological footprint (EFP), a comprehensive indicator of environmental pressure. The analysis covers the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—over 1971–2024 and tests for the stochastic convergence of per-capita footprints relative to the year-t regional average. Conventional ADF tests indicate convergence for Kuwait and Qatar—with Saudi Arabia at the 10% level—and Phillips–Perron results point in the same direction. Quantile ADF and Fourier quantile KSS tests with bootstrap inference show that adjustment is regime-dependent and country-specific: mean reversion is confined to below-average states in Bahrain, to above-average states in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and to both extremes in Qatar, while the United Arab Emirates and Oman revert to almost no quantile. The Phillips–Sul log-t procedure does not reject full-panel convergence: all six countries form a single convergence club, the result survives leave-one-country-out and cross-sectional-dependence checks, and subsample estimates date the convergence process mainly to the post-1990 period. Component-level analysis shows that aggregate convergence is carried by the carbon component (84–99% of the GCC footprint), whereas cropland, grazing, forest, and built-up components diverge. The findings support regionally coordinated energy–carbon policy combined with nationally tailored land-use policy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Economics and Sustainability)
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54 pages, 3558 KB  
Article
Exploring the AHP-AgileITS-ArchDesign: An AHP Model and Tool for Evaluating IT Service Architectural Agile Designs in SMBs
by Paola Yuritzy Reyes-Delgado, Manuel Mora, Gloria Phillips-Wren and Gerardo Salazar-Salazar
Analytics 2026, 5(3), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/analytics5030029 - 7 Aug 2026
Viewed by 218
Abstract
The design of IT services—including the architectural design—is considered a core activity to obtain a cost-effective IT service. Consequently, the main extant IT service frameworks and standards—rigorous and lightweight-agile types—aim to provide guidance for this purpose. However, some of them are reported at [...] Read more.
The design of IT services—including the architectural design—is considered a core activity to obtain a cost-effective IT service. Consequently, the main extant IT service frameworks and standards—rigorous and lightweight-agile types—aim to provide guidance for this purpose. However, some of them are reported at a coarse-grain conceptual level, and others are practically null. Consequently, their utilization—in the best case for large businesses—demands additional ad hoc organizational efforts. In the worst case, small and medium businesses (SMBs) are practically blocked from performing these relevant IT service activities by their limited resources. In this research, we are interested in supporting IT service design activities for SMBs, and thus introduce the AHP-AgileITS-ArchDesign model. This AHP-AgileITS-ArchDesign model was elaborated with a Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM), and aims to provide theoretically valid, systematic, agile and usable fine-grain guidance to support the design and evaluation of IT service architectural agile designs. The AHP-AgileITS-ArchDesign model uses a three-Layer AHP model derived from the main lightweight-agile IT service design literature, and its utilization is illustrated with an Academic Data Science Analytics Platform IT Service case. Then, its conceptual validity and its usability are evaluated, respectively, by a Panel of 16 Experts and an Exploratory Pilot Sample of 62 ITSM academics and practitioners. The evaluation results indicate that the AHP-AgileITS-ArchDesign model has a valid theoretical conceptualization and satisfactory usability, and thus can be used by practitioners and academics in SMBs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reviews on Data Analytics and Its Applications)
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28 pages, 880 KB  
Article
Fractional Long-Memory Dynamics and Residual Machine Learning for Medium-Horizon Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting
by Sergio Orozco Cirilo, Juan Manuel Vargas-Canales, Dora María Sangerman Jarquín, Sergio Ernesto Medina Cuéllar, Juan Antonio Bautista, Alberto Valdes Cobos, Benito Rodríguez Haros and Belén Hernández Hernández
Fractal Fract. 2026, 10(8), 536; https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract10080536 - 6 Aug 2026
Viewed by 296
Abstract
This paper develops a hybrid fractional-order framework for medium-horizon forecasting of wheat, corn, and soybean prices, combining a Caputo fractional differential equation with exogenous macro-climatic drivers (weather, crude oil, exchange rate, inflation) and a machine learning residual-correction layer. Existence, uniqueness, and Ulam–Hyers stability [...] Read more.
This paper develops a hybrid fractional-order framework for medium-horizon forecasting of wheat, corn, and soybean prices, combining a Caputo fractional differential equation with exogenous macro-climatic drivers (weather, crude oil, exchange rate, inflation) and a machine learning residual-correction layer. Existence, uniqueness, and Ulam–Hyers stability are established for both Caputo and Atangana–Baleanu formulations via Banach fixed-point theory, with numerical illustration through a fractional Adams–Bashforth–Moulton predictor–corrector scheme. Formal unit-root tests (ADF, KPSS, Phillips–Perron) confirm I(1) behaviour in log-price levels and stationarity in first differences. Residuals are corrected using XGBoost and two feedforward neural networks (MLP-A, MLP-B), producing a family of hybrid forecasting models. Using 25 years of monthly FRED data (January 2000–December 2024), multi-method long-memory diagnostics (Hurst exponent, Lo’s modified R/S test, DFA, local Whittle estimation) confirm near unit-root fractional integration in log-price levels (H[0.985,1.044]), with estimated fractional orders α^{0.737,0.884,0.451} for wheat, corn, and soybean. Under a strict rolling-origin protocol (17 origins, horizons h{1,5,6,12} months), conventional benchmarks remain competitive at h=1, but their MAPE degrades to 16.6–31.9% at h=12, while Frac+XGBoost error stays flat at 3.9–14.5%. This horizon-robust advantage holds across three market regimes (COVID-19 pandemic shock, 2021–2022 super-cycle, 2023–2024 normalisation) and is confirmed by Holm–Bonferroni-corrected Diebold–Mariano tests (p<0.001 at h=12). The model’s structural advantage emerges at h5 months, supporting procurement planning, food-security buffer stocks, and import budgeting. Full article
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